Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Transcription

1 Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 40.2 north, 78.4 west (previous location: 38.8 north, 74.4 west) LOCATION: 120 miles (190 kilometers) east-southeast of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania MOVEMENT: west at 10 mph (16 kph) (previous movement: west-northwest at 28 mph (44 kph)) WINDS: 45 mph (75 kph) (previous sustained winds: 90 mph (150 kph)) CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 mb (29.00 inches of mercury) (previous pressure: 940 mb) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Post-Tropical Cyclone 1st LANDFALL DETAILS LANDFALL LOCATION: near Kingston, Jamaica LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 3:00 PM local time October 24 th (19:00 UTC) LANDFALL INTENSITY: 80 mph (130 kph) Category 1 Hurricane 2nd LANDFALL DETAILS LANDFALL LOCATION: near Santiago de Cuba, Cuba LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 1:25 AM local time October 25 th (5:25 UTC) LANDFALL INTENSITY: 110 mph (175 kph) Category 2 Hurricane 3rd LANDFALL DETAILS LANDFALL LOCATION: near Atlantic City, New Jersey LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 8:00 PM local time Monday (00:00 UTC Tuesday) LANDFALL INTENSITY: 80 mph (130 kph) Post-Tropical Cyclone Latest Satellite Picture (Image by NOAA) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy Data and Information as of 11:30 AM Central Time, October 30,

2 Storm Impact Discussion Hurricane Sandy made landfall in the United States on Monday evening as a post-tropical cyclone, bringing an extended period of heavy rainfall, record storm surge, high winds, inland flooding and multiple feet (meters) of snow. At least 35 people were killed in the U.S., after Sandy had also left 69 people dead in the Caribbean. Sandy s enormous size has affected nearly 100 million people in the United States. Based on early reports from local government agencies and media in the U.S., Sandy has brought substantial damage and at least 8.2 million power outages throughout much of the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast. Among the hardest-hit areas came in New Jersey and New York, though impacts were felt from Florida to Maine to Illinois. States of emergency and federal disaster declarations were made for locations all along the eastern seaboard and areas inland as well. Travel was severely disrupted as more than 13,000 flights have been canceled nationwide (15,000 globally), and Amtrak and other commuter train lines were closed from Washington, DC to Boston. Wind damage in Manhattan (Source: Wikipedia) It will likely be several days or weeks until the full scope of damage and overall impacts are fully realized, given the enormity of Sandy s size and scope. At the storm s peak, tropical storm-force winds extended 520 miles (835 kilometers) from the center of circulation, while hurricane-force winds extended 175 miles (280 kilometers). The amazing 1,040-mile (1,670-kilometer) diameter of winds reaching beyond 40 mph (65 kph) made Sandy s wind field one of the largest ever recorded since Below is a table showing recent notable U.S. landfalling hurricane events and their wind fields at landfall: Storm Name Landfall Winds Radius of TS Winds (Landfall) Radius of HU Winds (Landfall) Hurricane Floyd (1999) 110 mph 260 miles 115 miles Hurricane Charley (2004) 140 mph 85 miles 25 miles Hurricane Ivan (2004) 120 mph 290 miles 105 miles Hurricane Katrina (2005) 125 mph 230 miles 125 miles Hurricane Rita (2005) 115 mph 205 miles 85 miles Hurricane Wilma (2005) 120 mph 230 miles 90 miles Hurricane Ike (2008) 110 mph 275 miles 120 miles Hurricane Irene* (2011) 75 mph 320 miles 125 miles Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy (2012) 80 mph 485 miles 175 miles *When Irene was at its closest point to New York City. Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy Data and Information as of 11:30 AM Central Time, October 30,

3 In terms of damage, the central focus begins in New York City. Lower Manhattan (which is the primary financial center in the U.S.) was heavily affected after a nearly 14-foot (4.26-meter) storm surge at The Battery a record swept over seawalls and into low-lying areas. Water also flooded into the unfinished construction pit at the site of the World Trade Center. The New York Stock Exchange was closed for a second day on Tuesday, which is the first time the NYSE has been closed for multiple days due to weather in more than a century. According to NYC s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, water flooded at least two major commuter tunnels and seven subway tunnels under the East River. The agency has called Sandy the most destructive storm in the 108-year history of the New York subway system. Elsewhere in the NYC metro region, a large fire destroyed as many as 100 homes in a flooded beachfront neighborhood in Queens. Floodwaters also prompted the evacuation of patients at downtown hospitals (including New York University s Tisch Hospital and Langone Medical Center) while several other water rescues took place. In addition to flooding, winds gusting upwards of 90 mph (150 kph) led to toppled cranes and ripped roofs. Most major tunnels, bridges, schools, Broadway theaters, businesses and airports (including LaGuardia, Kennedy and Newark) were all closed again on Tuesday. In New Jersey, extensive damage was recorded throughout the state and particularly in areas along the Jersey Shore. Sandy made its sole U.S. landfall near Atlantic City, where high waves partially damaged the famed boardwalk. The combination of 90 mph (150 kph) winds, torrential rains and storm surge led to a levee failure in the town of Moonachie near the Hackensack River. Four neighboring towns recorded up to 6 feet (1.82 meters) of water from the failure. Storm drains also failed in the nearby town of Little Ferry, where 4 feet (1.22 meters) of water flooded nearby homes. The cities of High surf in Massachusetts (Source: Wikipedia) Seaside Heights, Hoboken and Jersey City saw substantial affects to downtown areas (including government buildings and medical centers) which were damaged by floodwaters and high winds. State government officials labeled damage as unfathomable to structures, the transportation infrastructure and the electrical grid system. Additional damage has been recorded in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Virginia, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Power outages and tree damage has also been recorded as far west as the Great Lakes and southern Canada. In terms of an overall economic and insured loss impact, it remains far too early to label any specific dollar amount. However, the question has certainly shifted from the whether Sandy would cause billions in damage (USD) to how many billions in damage has Sandy caused. An additional factor besides the actual damage includes the uncertainty as to how prolonged business interruption(s) may be. Given the natural comparison to last year s Hurricane Irene that struck similar areas, it is not unreasonable to assume that total economic losses from Sandy may rival or surpass the USD15.8 billion that Irene caused. Sandy will likely become one of the top 10 costliest natural disasters in U.S. history. Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy Data and Information as of 11:30 AM Central Time, October 30,

4 While many outlets have deemed this event Superstorm Sandy, the National Hurricane Center is officially calling this event Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy and Impact Forecasting will be using the official terminology at this time. In an effort to minimize confusion given the highly complex nature of this event, in the hours prior to landfall in New Jersey, the National Hurricane Center declared that Sandy had lost all of its tropical characteristics and had fully transitioned into an extratropical (or post-tropical) cyclone. This means that Sandy had shifted from having a warm core to a cold core. The following will explain the difference between the two: A warm core system is one in which a storm s center has higher temperatures than its outer periphery due to the release of latent heat near the center. This latent heat occurs when water vapor condenses to liquid (rain), causing a further release of heat energy that was initially generated when evaporation had originally occurred. In the case of tropical cyclones, maximum evaporation in the atmosphere is found over the warmest ocean waters. This is why cyclones tend to intensify the most during the peak summer months, when water temperatures are at their peak and storms are fueled by the warmth. A cold core system is one in which derives from potential energy that is released when cold air aloft near the storm s center sinks towards the surface and is replaced by warmer (and less dense) air. In the specific case of a warm core system transitioning into a cold core system (or an extratropical/post-tropical cyclone), a tropical cyclone will enter a region with a large temperature gradient (or differential). A normal scenario involves the tropical cyclone becoming extratropical and being absorbed by a larger frontal boundary. NEXT CAT ALERT: This is the final Cat Alert. An extensive wrap-up of Hurricane Sandy can be found in Friday s release of the Weekly Cat Report. Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy Data and Information as of 11:30 AM Central Time, October 30,

5 About Impact Forecasting LLC: Impact Forecasting LLC is a catastrophe model development center of excellence within Aon Benfield whose seismologists, meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers, mathematicians, GIS experts, finance, risk management and insurance professionals analyze the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world. Impact Forecasting s experts develop software tools and models that help clients understand underlying risks from hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires and terrorist attacks on property, casualty and crop insurers and reinsurers. Impact Forecasting is the only catastrophe model development firm integrated into a reinsurance intermediary. To find out more about Impact Forecasting LLC, visit About Aon Benfield: As the industry leader in treaty, facultative and capital markets, Aon Benfield is redefining the role of the reinsurance intermediary and capital advisor. Through our unmatched talent and industry-leading proprietary tools and products, we help our clients to redefine themselves and their success. Aon Benfield offers unbiased capital advice and customized access to more reinsurance and capital markets than anyone else. As a trusted advocate, we provide local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial, and rating agency advisory, and the right professionals to advise clients in making the optimal capital choice for their business. With an international network of more than 4,000 professionals in 50 countries, our worldwide client base is able to access the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. Learn more at aonbenfield.com. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting LLC summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting LLC and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at Copyright by Impact Forecasting L.L.C. No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting LLC has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting LLC does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy Data and Information as of 11:30 AM Central Time, October 30,