Rising from the ashes: the role of older workers in driving Eurozone recovery

Transcription

1 Rising from the ashes: the role of older workers in driving Eurozone recovery David Sinclair, International

2 ILC-UK Planning Tomorrow, Today think tank evidence based policy focussed balanced independent respected experts networked international

3 Who do we work with?

4 Our focus is broad

5 Extending working lives Explored the role of innovation in extending working lives Highlighted the need for a new narrative about retirement. Discussed the macroeconomic importance of extending working lives Highlighted the barriers to gradual retirement for older workers. Set out the reasons why people retire when they do Made the case for focusing on the demand for older workers

6 And on EU issues

7 Summary The EU/Eurozone is going to need older workers for future economic growth Europe has a role to play in helping us increase the average age of exit from the workforce Europe 2020 agenda for skills and jobs could be stronger in its support for older workers

8 The Eurozone: where are we now?

9 Govt debt burdens continuing to rise

10 Where next for the Eurozone? The longer term

11 Results for the Eurozone, Core and Periphery countries Average annual growth rate in GDP per person ( ) *All scenarios assume workforce productivity growth of 1.5% per annum over the projected period *Core countries are: Germany, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, France and Luxembourg *Periphery countries are all other Eurozone members.

12 In summary - What does all this say? The Eurozone s economy could lose one in six workers due to population ageing. Without a substantial rise in workforce productivity to offset the anticipated fall in employment, GDP per capita growth rates across the Eurozone may only reach 1% per year up to By 2050, higher participation rates amongst the over 50s could deliver 12.6% more economic output per person (in real terms) than if participation rates by age remain the same.

13 What factors are associated with working longer: evidence from OECD countries

14 But carrots and not just sticks are needed to support working longer

15 And let s not forget the critical role of good health in supporting longer working lives

16 Our economy needs older workers but how can we improve on the current situation?

17 Good news: Participation is up Across the EU, the employment level of older workers has increased by 10% over the past ten years. Workers aged over 50 contributed a staggering 2.5trn to Eurozone GDP in fatowj-dzqfdv-dl6bck-7jyq65-aeevcc-atr5g8-7tmcae-8xbijt-8x91h7-ccpgpq-ccpeuh-ccpesj-8x6272- e1btov-e1h8kd-e1h8i5-e1h7ru-e1h8ym-e1bt2e-e1h7t7-e1h8qq-e1btwf-e1btc4-e1h8m3-e1btjbe1bsw4-e1h7hm-e1bszz-e1h8tb-e1btvd-e1h7nl-e1h835-e1h7us-e1btjb-7tyqkq-a5s36p-casdzucask5y-casgqo-dqix5q-8w36fd-fcmqeo-7gg6rh-dkd24e-9mpyku-aehusb-dpuvkv-dq1xmq/

18 Changes in Labour Force Participation of Males aged 55-64,

19 We need to learn from the best: Who does older workers well? Over 80% of men and 70% of women aged in Sweden are part of the labour force. The Labour Force Participation of Belgians of the same age is under 50% Fewer than one in five women aged in Malta are in work. 7VXeAX-8Dopm9-8DokGs-8DkdhV-8DnzoQ-8DnF1s-8DnHQ3-cNNv2d-9H5AuG-7J8a4d-8Doqsm-8DjHSg- 8DkaAB-8Dkp54-8DonDo-8DkmpV-8DoiuG-8Dog5J-8Dowms-8Dkivt-8Doo45-8Dkpot-8DouFN-8Dk96R- 8Dkaht-8DovfQ-8Dkosi-8Dka1T-8DotJq-8DohRm-8DomR1-8DoidN-8Doe4f-8Dk822-8DoiQE-8DohzC- 8DjMVF-8DnRwo-8DnSCj-8DjPY2-8DjuKB-8DjCTr-8DnDVG-8DnBPy-8DjNKZ-8DjLXc-8DjtF4-8DnAxy

20 Bad news: Half of year olds across Europe are not in work

21 Bad news: It is not time for complacency Across Europe, just under one in three of those aged are in employment Just 13% of Hungarians aged were in work in 2010 compared to over 60% of Swedes. There are still countries where fewer than 40% of people aged are in employment (Slovenia, Malta, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Belgium and Poland in 2012). In one third of Member States, no more than one out of five workers (60-64) is employed. Over the period , the average age of labour market withdrawal among the EU-28 had only increased by an estimated 1.3 years, from to oLoJ3-6t2ZRY-6tE2Zp-6tE2Zt-6tE2Zz-6yNN61-6zee36-6zg5kx-6zGKop-6Azi8D-6Azj1X- 6C6Jc3-6DfPU7-6F7Z4y-6HsjYN-6KxdVN-6PMdG9-6RTF24-6RTVSj-74t2G7-757chN- 76mWJ9-77X5Vp-78orde-79ZZG9-7bpyf9-7cLdny-7hJf7s-7jwENJ-7kTpsU-7kY2Ku- 7pri8t-7psPSN-7qZWHT-7rtx6Z-7tB2Lw-7uskh2-7wghjp-7wghNr-7wghQF-7wk6Jj- 9WDMaM-89dsU1-7TYQKU-dBf26o-84k1CX-eeoG5V-eYkq5p-eYkrkr-eYkt5c-eYkqER/

22 What should be the priority of European policymakers? Achieving gender equality In every EU Member State, the life expectancy of women is higher than that of men, by 5.9 years on average. Yet despite living longer across the EU, women participate less in the labour market and retire earlier. Skilling up the older workforce The current cohort of older workers in Europe have low levels of education and qualifications compared to younger groups, and are more likely to have worked in agriculture and production Supporting older people in the recession Labour market participation is up but so is unemployment

23 Unemployment rate of men aged in 2002 and 2012

24 Long-term unemployed (12+months) as % of total unemployment for people Aged in 2012

25 What should be the priority of European policymakers? Matching demand and supply in the labour market Is Europe s economy creating the right jobs to meet the needs and wishes of the supply of older workers Tackling ageism Improving health Recognising the diversity of the working experience (e.g. growth in self employed)

26 What more could be done under Europe 2020 Creating more, better and more appropriate jobs for older workers e.g. use the social fund; remove default retirement ages; creating the right jobs. Not just focus on youth: Taking a life course approach to working longer A high percentage of people aged across Europe are in employment (78% in 2010), and there is not significant variation across the EU (between 70% in Spain and 85% in Sweden). Tackle inequalities Promote and support skill development across the lifecourse; tackle poor health. Better understand and promote what works

27 Many thanks David Sinclair Director International Longevity Centre-UK