The Response of Fisheries Production to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing: Past, Present, and Future

Transcription

1 The Response of Fisheries Production to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing: Past, Present, and Future Colleen Petrik PICES Annual Meeting San Diego 10 Nov 2016

2 Expected changes to fish IPCC AR5 Ch. 6 Pörtner et al. 2014

3 Global size-based fish model GFDL ESM COBALT Stock et al. 2014; Watson et al. 2014

4 Global size-based fish model Forage fish Top pred Pelagic Adults Watson et al. 2014

5 Global size- and type-based fish model Structured by: Feeding & habitat functional type forage fishes large migratory pelagics Maturity stage larvae juveniles adults Size small medium large demersals

6 Functional types and sizes Meso Small Medium Large Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

7 Life cycle dynamics - reproduction Meso Small Medium Large Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

8 Life cycle dynamics - recruitment Meso Small Medium Large Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

9 Size-based trophic interactions Meso Small Medium Large 0.2 mm 2 mm 20 mm 200 mm 2000 mm Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

10 Small eats medium zooplankton Meso Small Medium Large 0.2 mm 2 mm 20 mm 200 mm 2000 mm Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

11 Medium eats small animals Meso Small Medium Large 0.2 mm 2 mm 20 mm 200 mm 2000 mm Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

12 Large eats medium animals Meso Small Medium Large 0.2 mm 2 mm 20 mm 200 mm 2000 mm Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

13 Type-based trophic interactions Meso Small Medium Large 0.2 mm 2 mm 20 mm 200 mm 2000 mm Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

14 Forage fishes eat plankton Meso Small Medium Large 0.2 mm 2 mm 20 mm 200 mm 2000 mm Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

15 Large pelagics eat pelagic animals Meso Small Medium Large 0.2 mm 2 mm 20 mm 200 mm 2000 mm Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

16 Demersals eat it depends Meso Small Medium Large 0.2 mm 2 mm 20 mm 200 mm 2000 mm Zooplankton Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material

17 ESM-COBALT linkage Meso Small Medium Large Zooplankton Med Z Lrg Z Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals Benthic material 5% detrital flux

18 Unfished historic global fish distribution

19 Unfished historic global fish distribution Forage fishes Large pelagics Demersals

20 Comparisons to other estimates All consumers log10 mean biomass of Jennings & Collingridge (g m -2 ) Jennings & Collingridge Size-based model Size- and type-based model weight = g MT MT

21 Comparisons to other estimates Benthic invertebrates > 1mm Statistical model Mechanistic model Wei et al. 2011

22 Comparisons to other estimates Commercial fish catch r = 0.56 Modeled fish catch (MT) F=0.3 ~MSY The Sea Around Us Project SAUP estimated fish catch (MT)

23 4 comparisons to highlight drivers Historic unfished vs. Pre-industrial Industrial CO 2 Historic fished vs. Historic unfished Contemporary Fishing Future unfished vs. Historic unfished Climate change (RCP 8.5) Future fished vs. Historic fished Climate change + Future Fishing

24 Nominal changes from climate change to date unfished Mean biomass Fishing Climate change Mean biomass (g/m 2 ) all fishes fished Year

25 Future climate change similar magnitude as fishing unfished Mean biomass Climate change Mean biomass (g/m 2 ) all fishes fished Fishing Climate change + Fishing Year

26 Future climate change similar magnitude as fishing unfished Mean biomass 8.5% Mean biomass (g/m 2 ) all fishes fished 9.0% 9.1% 16.7% Year

27 Future climate change similar magnitude as fishing unfished Mean biomass Mean biomass (g/m 2 ) all fishes fished 9.1% Climate change + Fishing Year

28 Trophic amplification Global change in productivity % change NPP Mesozoo Fish

29 Huge regional variations in % change

30 N Pac regional variations % change

31 N Pacific changes in biomes 70ºN ºE LC Low Chl ECCS Elevated Chl, Cont Strat ECSS Elevated Chl, Seas Strat c.f. Polovina et al. 2011; Stock et al. 2014

32 N Pacific % change in fish by biome % change area integrated biomass (g) % change

33 N Pacific % change by biome % change area integrated biomass (g)

34 N Pacific % change by biome % change area integrated biomass (g) % change area (m) % change biomass (g/m 2 )

35 Conclusions Amplifying effects from anthropogenic forcing area + abundance biomass fished > unfished trophic amplification of productivity

36 Future directions Effect of movement Recruitment dynamics Spawning phenology (Rebecca Asch) Predation by zooplankton Jellyfish as competitors and predators (Natasha Henschke) Fisheries management scenarios

37 Acknowledgments Ken Andersen, Charlie Stock, Jorge Sarmiento, James Watson Nereus Program (Nippon Foundation) NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton University Sea Around Us Project