The economic impacts of the UK sea fishing and fish processing sectors: An input-output analysis

Transcription

1 The economic impacts of the UK sea fishing and fish processing sectors: An input-output analysis

2 The economic impacts of the UK sea fishing and fish processing sectors: An input-output analysis The contents of this report are based on the findings of a research project commissioned by Seafish and undertaken by the Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde University. Seafish Economics would like to acknowledge and thank the authors of the original report; Prof. Kim Swales, Prof. Peter McGregor and Nikos Pappas. Copies of the full report,the economic impacts of the UK sea fishing and fish processing sectors: an Input-Output analysis, can be obtained from Seafish.

3 The economic impacts of the UK sea fishing and fish processing sectors Introduction The UK and EU Governments make important fisheries management and public investment decisions in an increasingly competitive environment for fish resources and public investment. Although intended for the longterm overall good, these decisions can sometimes have at least a short-term negative impact on the commercial fishing and fish processing sectors in the UK. Industry bodies and government require evidence of the economic importance of the sea fishing and fish processing sectors to inform these policy decisions, so that they can understand the likely consequences of their decisions. This report provides a quantitative indication of the importance of the sea fishing and fish processing sectors to the UK economy, and estimates the impact on the wider UK economy that would result from changes in the activity levels of the UK sea fishing and processing sectors. The overall economic importance of the sea fishing and fish processing sectors is much greater than the often quoted sales values of each sector would suggest. The key points that confirm this importance are contained in this report. Seafish economists are available to answer specific questions relating to the importance of the seafood industry to the UK. Please contact us for specialist advice before using the findings in this report. Supplies Boats Nets Fuel Local Economy Revenues Profits Jobs Retail spend Education Health care Utilities Imported Fish UK Economy 1

4 The importance of fishing and seafood processing to the UK economy The importance of these sectors to the UK economy can be illustrated by considering: a) The impact of removing the entire sector of industry on the rest of the UK economy. b) The impact of an increase or decrease in the value (at first sale) of fish landings by 1 million. We estimate these impacts in terms of changes in output, employment (measured in full time equivalents (FTEs) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that would result from the removal of these sectors. All figures in this report relate to 2002, the most recent year for which reference data are available. Fish catching If the UK fish catching sector were removed entirely (see table 1), the impact on the UK economy would be as follows: UK Employment would decrease by 28,691 (FTE) jobs; UK GDP would decrease by million (0.07% of UK GDP). If the value at first sale of UK fish landings decreased or increased by 1 million (see table 2), the expected impacts on the UK economy would depend on the type of fish whose value of landings changed, as follows: For demersal species: UK Output would change by 6.29 million; UK Employment would change by 70 FTE jobs; UK GDP would change by 2.01 million. For shellfish species: UK Output would change by 7.16 million; UK Employment would change by 113 FTE jobs; UK GDP would change by 2.57 million. For pelagic species: UK Output would change by 6.73 million; UK Employment would change by 79 FTE jobs; UK GDP would change by 3.31 million. The UK output and employment multipliers relating to UK fish catching vary by fish type. The multipliers can be found in table 3. Regional analysis The impact on regional economies of removing all fish landings in those discreet regions is presented here and in table 4. In Scotland: Employment would decrease by 10,472 FTE jobs; GDP would decrease by million, (0.39% of Scottish GDP). In Wales: Employment would decrease by 1,595 FTE jobs; GDP would decrease by 23.0 million, (0.07% of Welsh GDP). 2

5 The economic impacts of the UK sea fishing and fish processing sectors In Northern Ireland: Employment would decrease by 1,097 FTE jobs; GDP would decrease by 25.8 million, (0.11% of Northern Ireland GDP). In England: Employment would decrease by 11,935 FTE jobs; GDP would decrease by million, (0.02% of English GDP). In England and Wales (E&W): Employment would decrease by 14,303 FTE jobs; GDP would decrease by million, (0.03% of E&W combined GDP). The impacts on the UK economy of removing regional fish landings are also available in the full report. Analysis by fish type It is also possible to present the economic impacts of removing fish-type sectors of the catching industry for the UK, see table 1. For demersal species: UK Employment would decrease by 12,939 FTE jobs; UK GDP would decrease by million (0.04% of UK GDP). For shellfish species: UK Employment would decrease by 13,106 FTE jobs; UK GDP would decrease by million (0.02% of UK GDP). For pelagic species: UK Employment would decrease by 2,654 FTE jobs; UK GDP would decrease by million (0.01% of UK GDP). Processing The UK processing sector to a large extent depends on supplies of imported fish and therefore has a larger overall value than the UK catching sector. If the fish processing sector were removed entirely (see table 1), the impact on the UK economy would be: UK Employment would decrease by 118,320 FTE jobs; UK GDP would decrease by 3,891.1 million (0.48% of UK GDP). If the demand for fish processing products increased or decreased by 1 million, the expected impacts on employment in the UK economy (including fish processing) would depend on fish type, as presented here and in table 4: For demersal species: UK Employment would change by 44.5 FTE jobs. For shellfish species: UK Employment would change by 48.5 FTE jobs. For pelagic species: UK Employment would change by 46.4 FTE jobs. The UK output and employment multipliers relating to UK fish processing vary by fish type. These multipliers can be found in table 3. 3

6 Analysis by region The impacts on regional economies of the removal of all fish processing within those regions (see table 5) are as follows: In Scotland: Employment would decrease by 23,660 FTE jobs; GDP would decrease by million (0.87% of Scottish GDP). In Wales: Employment would decrease by 2,057 FTE jobs; GDP would decrease by 56.0 million (0.17% of Welsh GDP). In Northern Ireland: Employment would decrease by 3,157 FTE jobs; GDP would decrease by 84.7 million (0.37% of Northern Ireland GDP). In England: Employment would decrease by 73,535 FTE jobs; GDP would decrease by 2,517.9 million (0.30% of English GDP). In England and Wales (E&W): Employment would decrease by 78,049 FTE jobs; GDP would decrease by 2,657.0 million (0.31% of E&W combined GDP). The impacts on the UK economy of removing regional fish processing are also available in the full report. Fish type sectors It is also possible to present the economic impacts of removing fish-type sectors of the processing industry on the UK economy, see table 1. For demersal species: UK Employment would decrease by 82,985 FTE jobs; UK GDP would decrease by 2,630.4 million (0.29% of UK GDP). For shellfish species: UK Employment would decrease by 48,263 FTE jobs; UK GDP would decrease by 1,435.9 million (0.16% of UK GDP). For pelagic species: UK Employment would decrease by 6,624 FTE jobs; UK GDP would decrease by million (0.03% of UK GDP). Fishing and processing sectors combined The removal of both the fish catching and fish processing sectors in the UK would have the following effects on the UK economy: UK Employment would decrease by 137,601 FTE jobs; UK GDP would decrease by 4,342.2 million (0.48% of UK GDP). 4

7 The economic impacts of the UK sea fishing and fish processing sectors Conclusions from the study The impact of changes in demand for the output of the sea fishing sectors initiates a multiplier process that further affects output and activity both at the regional and national level. Input-output analysis captures the changes in intermediate demand and household expenditure that accompany the initial direct change in activity. Further, in the analysis reported here, these changes in activity can be disaggregated by region. For the majority of fish types in the majority of UK regions, the change in economic activity generated through these indirect and induced effects is greater than the direct effect itself. At the regional level, multiplier values tend to be higher the larger and more remote the region. This is because import leakages tend to be lower in these regions. The impact at the UK level is necessarily higher than at regional level as the multiplier values rise as more of the change in activity is captured when geographical area is larger. Multiplier values differ between fish types and between measures of activity. These differences generally reflect the cost structure of the sector: sectors with a high share of domestically produced intermediate inputs and wages in their cost structure have high output multipliers. A greater proportion of the expenditure in any one round of the multiplier process will get recycled in the local economy. Therefore, demersal sectors have much higher output multipliers than pelagic sectors. However, employment and GDP multipliers can differ markedly from output multipliers. Labour intensive sectors, such as shellfish sectors, have relatively high output multipliers but low employment multipliers. This is because the change in demand required to change direct employment by one FTE is very low, so that the additional employment generated for each direct worker is low. Processing sectors generally have higher output multipliers than the sea fishing sectors, but this is as much to do with high wage shares as high intermediate inputs. A key issue for sea fishing is the impact of additional landings. The multiplier effect is measured through the use of a hybrid multiplier, which identifies some supply and demand linkages: the hybrid multiplier value is greater than the output multiplier for these sea fishing sectors. Input-output analysis can be used in various scenarios. One common scenario is to measure the impact of the complete removal of the sea fishing and fish processing sectors. This has a large impact in terms of changes in the absolute levels of employment and output. However, two points are crucial. First, relative to the size of the economy as a whole, the sea fishing and fish processing sectors are relatively small. In Scotland, the regional economy where sea fishing related sectors have the largest presence, the impact of removing all sea fishing and fish processing sectors reduces Scottish GDP by slightly over 1%. Second, the input-output approach does not allow for any supply side changes the supply side is entirely passive. Therefore, there is no account taken of resources that are released from the contracting sectors being reabsorbed into production through supply side adjustments. The full report contains further breakdown of these figures by fish type. 5

8 Summary tables of the importance of the UK sea fishing and processing sectors GDP change %change Employment ( m) in GDP (FTEs) Sea fishing Demersal % -12,939 Shellfish % -13,106 Pelagic % -2,654 Fish processing Demersal -2, % -82,985 Shellfish -1, % -48,263 Pelagic % -6,624 All fishing sectors % -28,691 All fish processing -3, % -118,320 All sea fishing and fish processing sectors -4, % -137,601 Table 1.The UK employment and GDP impacts of removing the sea fishing and fish processing sectors with fish processing disaggregated by fish type* * Based upon conventional Type II demand driven multiplier calculations. Demersal Shellfish Pelagic Employ- Employ- Employ- Output ment GDP Output ment GDP Output ment GDP ( m) (FTEs) ( m) ( m) (FTEs) ( m) ( m) (FTEs) ( m) Foreign Domestic Mixed Table 2.The UK impact of 1m additional landings by UK and foreign vessels by fish type, using a disaggregated fish processing sector* *Calculated using the hybrid multiplier Output Employment Sea fishing Demersal Shellfish Pelagic Fish processing Demersal Shellfish Pelagic Table 3.The UK output and employment multipliers with fish processing disaggregated by fish type* * Conventional Type II demand driven multiplier values

9 The economic impacts of the UK sea fishing and fish processing sectors Regional UK Employment GDP ( ) % GDP Employment GDP ( ) % GDP Scotland Demersal -3, % -5, % Shellfish -5, % -7, % Pelagic -1, % -2, % Fishing -10, % -15, % Processing -23, % -36,242-1, % Fishing and processing -27, % -43,045-1, % Wales Demersal -1, % -1, % Shellfish % -1, % Pelagic Fishing -1, % -2, % Processing -2, % -3, % Fishing and processing -3, % -5, % Northern Demersal % % Ireland Shellfish % % Pelagic % % Fishing -1, % -1, % Processing -3, % -4, % Fishing and processing -3, % -5, % England Demersal -5, % -5, % Shellfish -6, % -6, % Pelagic % % Fishing -11, % -12, % Processing -73,535-2, % -77,406-2, % Fishing and processing -75,831-2, % -79,765-2, % England Demersal -6, % -6, % and Wales Shellfish -7, % -7, % Pelagic % % Fishing -14, % -14, % Processing -78,049-2, % -81,015-2, % Fishing and processing -81,683-2, % -84,765-2, % Table 4.The regional and UK impacts of removing individual sea fishing and fish processing sectors (source:table 2 in full report) 7

10 Output Employment Employment for 1 multiplier multiplier million demand injection Sea fishing Demersal Shellfish Pelagic Fish processing Demersal Shellfish Pelagic Table 5: The UK output multiplier, employment multiplier and employment per 1 million of additional demand using a disaggregated fish processing sector *Conventional Type II demand driven multiplier values * The employment multiplier shows the change in employment for the economy as a whole that results from the change in employment of a particular sector. So an increase or decrease of one job in demersal fish processing would result in a change of 5.64 jobs in the wider UK economy What is input-output analysis? Input-output analysis is a method used to estimate the impact of a change in the value of one industrial sector on the rest of the economy. These estimates can then be interpreted as showing the relative and absolute importance of industry sectors to the UK or regional economies.the results in this report come from two specially constructed I-O tables. Both tables are for 2002, the final year for which reliable I-O data are available, and are in 2002 basic prices. Further details are available in the full report. The multiplier concept The multiplier measures the level of change in the economy resulting from a change in a particular sector. For example, a change in demand for output in one sector of the economy will generate knock on effects in other sectors. There will be a change in the demand for intermediate inputs and changes in consumption demand as employment and household income adjusts. These further sources of demand change are known as the indirect (intermediate demand) and induced (consumption demand) effects. The first round change in demand will result in corresponding second round changes in the intermediate and consumption demand for the output of other sectors, which will generate further demand adjustments and so on. A multiplier process is thereby set up, where the change in output in each round gets smaller and smaller as some expenditure leaks out of the region or the nation in the form of imports, taxes and savings in each round. Type I multipliers incorporate only indirect effects. This means that the change in demand for goods and services that make up intermediate inputs is included in this calculation, but no change is assumed for consumption expenditure. Type II multipliers, on the other hand, encompass both indirect and induced impacts. These multipliers incorporate changes in both intermediate and consumption demands for goods and services. This study focuses primarily on Type II multipliers. 8

11 The economic impacts of the UK sea fishing and fish processing sectors Seafish Economics contact details If you have questions about this report, the full report or want to be able to draw some specific conclusions about the importance of industry, please contact Seafish Economists: John Anderson Tel: Hazel Curtis Tel:

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