Migration to 4G. Challenges and Opportunities. Amit A Patel CTO, US Strategic Accounts April 2009

Transcription

1 Migration to 4G Challenges and Opportunities Amit A Patel CTO, US Strategic Accounts April 2009

2 Migration to 4G: Challenges and Opportunities Both LTE and WiMAX will offer a new suite of end user capabilities, and there is much hype around the evolution to 4G networks. Many rural carriers have spectrum assets - and want to take advantage of these new technologies to offer high speed mobile data. So, when will this be available in rural markets? This session will discuss the realities of 4G, including a technology overview, deployment status, business drivers, and market challenges. - Amit A Patel, CTO - US Strategic Wireless Accounts, Alcatel-Lucent AGENDA 4G Hype the Buzz is EVERYWHERE! What is 4G? 4G Business Drivers 4G Market and Technology Challenges 4G Deployment Status Rural Carrier Deployment Scenarios 2 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

3 4G Excitement US Carriers Selecting LTE and WiMAX Verizon Opts for LTE Based Network Feb 18, 2009 Verizon said it would build its new superfast mobile broadband network on LTE (long term evolution) using technologies from Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent. Clearwire Puts Down LTE Feb 18, 2009 Clearwire continues to move full speed ahead with plans to introduce new mobile WiMAX markets, services and devices this year. MetroPCS to Launch LTE in 2010 Mar 4, 2009 MetroPCS plans to launch LTE technology in the second half of AT&T: HSPA+, Not LTE for Now Apr 20, 2009 Before AT&T implements LTE, it plans another HSPA upgrade that will bring 3G capacity up to 7.2 Mb/s. Later this year, AT&T plans to start migrating its 3G networks to HSPA+, which would triple speeds. Open Range to Launch WiMAX Jan 9, 2009 Open Range to launch affordable high speed broadband internet and voice services to more than 6M citizens in 546 underserved and rural communities using WiMAX technology within five years. Could Broadband Stimulus Package be a Coup for Wireless Broadband? Jan 20, 2009 Wireless included in Broadband Stimulus bill. How quickly will the US get to 100K LTE or WiMAX subscribers? 1M? 3 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

4 4G Market Forecast DELL'ORO GROUP Mobile Subscriber Base (M) GSM/GPRS/EDGE 2,699 3,263 3,563 3,663 3,713 3,728 3,723 CDMA WCDMA ,391 1,894 3G LTE WiMAX PDC 18 9 iden Total 3,337 4,081 4,532 4,835 5,200 5,651 6,162 Dell Oro Group: Mobility Report Five Year Forecast (Jan 2009) LTE+WiMAX: 99M subscribers by 2013 LTE+WiMAX: 1.6% of total subs by 2013 WCDMA: Continues to grow, 30%+ of total subs by 2013; 60%+ of total infrastructure revenue GSM: Stays steady, 60% of total subs in Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

5 4G Excitement Where Are We Today and Where Are We Going New applications Fixed broadband life Media Players e-car devices Rich ecosystem My life in my handset Portable Game Consoles Growing # of mobiles by 2011, roughly 4 billion mobile phones! Recording devices Rise of the millenials The Millennials generation born and/or raised with Internet (11-25 years old) Within 5 years, millennials life style injected into their adult lives & enterprises Communicators Readers (e-paper) Booming demand for broadband data consumption and rich devices for communication & entertainment 5 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

6 4G Excitement - How Much Data Is There? consumes more bandwidth today than the entire Internet did in 2000 It took 200 years to fill the Library of Congress 57 million documents, 29 million books, 12 million photos Worldwide, an equal amount of digital info is generated almost 100 times per day One Exabyte = 1 quintillion bytes = 1,152,921,504,606,846,976 bytes (or 1B GB) 12 Exabytes = Sum of all human produced information (audio, video, text/books) through 1999 (of which 1.5 exabytes was created in 1999 alone) * Worldwide Information Tracker - shows 467 Exabytes created and replicated worldwide in 2008 ** That s 1.2 Exabytes a day (and growing)!! * University of California at Berkeley study ** IDC The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe 6 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

7 4G Excitement - What s New For 2009? 7 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

8 4G Excitement - A Crazy Idea For 201x??? Navigation Parking Cameras Google Maps Location Info Heads Up Display O N T O Intelligent Windscreen 8 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

9 So, What is 4G? Mobile Market Trends Bandwidth Hungry Applications (Real-time, Interactive, High Resolution) Context Awareness & Personalization Social Networking & Content Sharing Immediacy Wireless/Wireline Convergence Technology Requirements Higher data rates & spectral efficiency Improved OFDMA air-interface Reduced latency Flatter IP networks Seamless handover between various wireless technologies Support a range of cell deployment scenarios Next Generation Wireless Mbps Mbps speed speed Full Full mobility Any Any network Any Any terminal All-IP All-IP QoS QoS control control High High QoE QoE 9 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

10 What is 4G? A High Level Standards View More Mobile WiMAX e-2005 IP Transport OFDM All-IP MIMO WiMAX Enhanced CDMA2000 EV-DO Rev.A IP Transport More Broadband Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB aka EVDO Rev C) OFDM All-IP MIMO HSDPA enh. / HSUPA More Broadband Long Term Evolution (LTE) IP Transport OFDM All-IP MIMO Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (OFDM), IP, Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) advanced antennas are vital components of any next-generation technology. 10 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

11 What Is 4G? OFDMA OFDMA Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access Guard Band 10 Mbps Data 100 Kbps channel Kbps channel Kbps channel n 100 Kbps channel Kbps channel 100 Saved bandwidth No interference Send large amount of data by using numerous low rate channels in parallel perfect for high peak data rates FDM transmission with narrowband overlapping orthogonal (non interfering) carriers used with new low cost, highly accurate narrowband frequency filters 11 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

12 What is 4G? MIMO and Beam Forming Intelligent Antenna and Beam Forming Multiple Antennas MIMO = Multiple Input Multiple Output w/o multiple antennas x Mbps 3 miles 5 miles With multiple antennas 1.5x Mbps Concentrated beam to each user can lead to 50% capacity gains. This can be done dynamically based on the users in the cell range. Higher throughput with multiple antennas (different data on each carrier) and/or greater coverage with multiple antennas (same data on each carrier). 12 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

13 What Is 4G? All IP 1 st Generation AMPS (voice only) 2 nd Generation GSM/CDMA (voice and low speed data) 1-2 T1s ATM/FR Transport 2-4 T1s 4-8 T1s 3 rd Generation xevdo, HSPA, HSPA+, WiMAX (voice and high speed data) LTE or WiMAX Core Network (IP based for Data, Voice and Multimedia Apps) IP/Ethernet Transport T1s 4 th Generation LTE or WiMAX Enhanced (voice and broadband data) Greater Backhaul BW Need Greater data speeds to mobiles means greater backhaul needs IP/Ethernet Based Backhaul, IP/MPLS Core, and an IP Based Voice/Data Core IP/MPLS is more efficient due to shared bandwidth vs dedicated bandwidth with ATM/FR. Multiple users with bursty data needs requires a shared solution. Lower Latency faster session setup IMS in the core to support VoIP and blended multi-media applications 13 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

14 What is 4G? What Download Data Rates Can You Expect? 70 Mbps FDD 5 MHz Up / 5 MHz Down TDD 10 MHz LTE Advertises 100+ Mbps Need a lot of contiguous spectrum to theoretically achieve 100+ Mbps (20 MHz up + 20 MHz down) Real world likely speeds will be much lower 0 Theory (Peak) Likely Average EVDO Rev EVDO Rev A HSPA HSPA+ HSPA+ 2x2 MIMO LTE 2x2 MIMO LTE 4x2 MIMO WiMAX WiMAX 4x2 2x2 MIMO + BF MIMO LTE Downlink Data Rates Rural Carriers Typically Have 5 MHz up and 5 MHz down 100 Mbps is NOT possible with this much spectrum OFDMA (LTE/WiMAX) benefit is much less at lower bandwidths Theory (Peak) Likely Average 1.4 MHz/ 1.4MHz MHz/ 3 MHz MHz/ 5MHz MHz/ 10 MHz MHz/ 20 MHz Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

15 What is 4G? LTE and WiMAX Architectures GSM UMTS HSPA Separate Voice / IP Air Channels RNC HLR SGSN GGSN Separate CS / PS Core Networks PCRF HSS LTE e Common Packet (IP) Air Channel Common Enhanced (IP) Packet Core WiMAX WiMAX BS WiMAX Access Controller PCRF Subscriber Mgmt 15 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

16 Business Drivers for 4G in Rural Markets Become a Wireless Provider or Enhance Current Wireless Offer Broadband Data Demand Mobile Broadband Fixed Broadband (DSL/fiber alternative) Roaming Possibilities with Tier 1/2s (but when will it start?) Attract/Maintain Subscribers Before Tier 1/2s Come Into Town Public Safety Mobile Data Solutions Leverage Broadband Stimulus $s from American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Could turn marginal or negative business cases into positive ones 16 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

17 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 Stimulus of ~$7B towards Broadband $4.35B for grants through the Department of Commerce s National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) pursuant to a new Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP) $2.5B for grants, loans, and loan guarantees for broadband infrastructure through the Department of Agriculture s Rural Utilities Service (RUS) NTIA schedule: Three distinct grant periods April-June 2009, October-December 2009, April-June Funding may be roughly 1/3 of total funds in each round. RUS s schedule: Three distinct grant periods First within days; two more rounds each about 3-4 months later (similar to NTIA) Applicants can pursue funding from both RUS and NTIA, and for the same project, as long as both are not funding the same piece of equipment Strong indication from NTIA that projects must demonstrate that they would not be built absent funding Multiple small/medium awards vs fewer large awards We re All Waiting for the Stimulus Fund Application Process to be Rolled Out 17 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

18 4G Challenges: You Need Spectrum LTE deployable in licensed bands FDD : 2.6 GHz, 2.3 GHz, 2.1 GHz,1900 MHz,1800 MHz,1700/2100 MHz, 1500 MHz, 900 MHz, 850 MHz, 700 MHz, 450 MHz. TDD : 2.6 GHz, 2.3 GHz, 1.9/2.1 GHz North America Europe, Middle East, Africa Asia Pacific 2009 AWS (1700/2100 MHz) 700 MHz 2009 Future 2.1 GHz 2.6 GHz 900 MHz (re-farm) 1.8 GHz (re-farm) GHz (Japan) 2.6 GHz (Japan) 2.1 GHz (Japan) GHz (China) Future 850 MHz (re-farm) 1.9 GHz (re-farm) Future 450 MHz (re-farm) MHz (digital dividend) Future Future MHz (digital dividend) 1.8 GHz (re-farm) Note: Represents estimated timeframe of when infrastructure will become available for LTE deployment not necessarily devices WiMAX deployable in licensed and un-licensed bands TDD : 2.5 GHz, 3.65 GHz, 700 MHz, 900 MHz, Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

19 4G Challenges You Need AFFORDABLE Devices WiMAX Has Many Today (at 2.5/3.5)... LTE Has A Ways To Go H H2 H H2 H H2 H H2 H H2 H Field Trials Early LTE Launches LTE Adoption Increasing Wide Scale LTE Adoption Vendor 1 1 st Gen LTE Vendor 1 2 nd Gen LTE Vendor 2 1 st Gen LTE Vendor 2 2 nd Gen LTE Vendor 3 1 st Gen LTE Vendor 3 2 nd Gen LTE Vendor 4 1 st Gen LTE Vendor 4 2 nd Gen LTE Vendor 5 1 st Gen LTE Vendor 5 2 nd Gen LTE Vendor 6 1 st Gen LTE Vendor 6 2 nd Gen LTE LTE Ecosystem will be established by mid 2011 or later 19 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

20 4G (LTE) Challenges You Need Devices For Your Spectrum 3GPP Device Band Plan Ones Applicable to US Band 4 AWS Bands [Driven By AT&T and MetroPCS) Band MHz Upper C [Driven By Verizon] Band MHz Lower A/B/C [No One Driving] Band MHz Lower B/C [Driven By AT&T] Rural Carriers have 850, 1900, AWS and 700 Lower A/B/C Initial data cards from established vendors is focused on Band 13, followed by Band 4 and 17; high end voice/data handsets will follow 6-12 months after data cards No known devices for Band 12 yet (due to interference issues of lower A) When do these devices become affordable? Will there be exclusivity issues with LTE devices? There are today with WiMAX and GSM/UMTS devices. UMTS Data Cards Are $60-$100 today (7.2 Mbps) LTE Data Cards Could Be $300+ in 2H Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

21 4G (LTE) Challenges: Spectrum Migration Current Future Scenario Existing UMTS or CDMA OR Add new band for LTE AWS Existing UMTS or CDMA Add New Band Capacity Driven New spectrum application Hot spots / femto cells AWS AWS Existing GSM and UMTS Refarm band to add LTE Existing GSM and UMTS Refarm Existing Band Capacity Driven New spectrum application Hot spots / femto cells Existing GSM and UMTS Refarm Existing Carriers Existing GSM and UMTS 700 AWS OR Nothing Available Deploy UMTS or CDMA Refarm carriers to grow UMTS/add LTE 700 OR AWS Refarm carrier to add LTE Coverage Driven Free GSM carriers to grow UMTS and later add LTE Greenfield Deployment Refarm Carrier Smooth LTE Introduction Deploy UMTS or CDMA and refarm to later add LTE Legend GSM UMTS CDMA LTE 21 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

22 4G Challenges: Voice Solutions WiMAX VoIP Solutions are available for Residential Gateway devices Home phone can plug into device, or SIP client on PC can be used Prioritize voice packets over data packets Mobile handsets for voice/data not readily available LTE 3GPP standards for voice support are based on VoIP via IMS The standards are not yet finalized for E911 support For greenfield LTE deployments, voice will be initially challenging. VZW and other current wireless carriers are focused on data over LTE and voice via existing infrastructure (e.g. CDMA or GSM/UMTS) Alternate solutions like Voice over LTE Generic Access (VoLGA) being discussed And, for VoIP/IMS, Circuit Switch Fall Back (CSFB) is needed for handoff/hand-in scenarios between 3G/LTE 22 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

23 4G: US Activity WiMAX Clearwire rolling out in NFL cities (2.5 GHz) Open Range Communications pursuing rural cities (2.486 GHz) Several rural carriers at 700 MHz (lower A/B/C) or GHz (with closed solutions) LTE Verizon city roll-out begins in 2H2010 (700 MHz upper C) MetroPCS roll-out begins in 2H2010 (AWS) Cox Cable considering roll-out in late 2010 or 2011 (AWS, 700 MHz lower A/B) AT&T to deploy HSPA+ first, LTE roll-out in 2012 (?) (700 MHz lower B/C) Many rural carriers are interested want to deploy ASAP (700 MHz lower A/B/C or AWS) State/Local entities are requesting Public Safety solutions for 2H2010 (700 MHz upper D) 23 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

24 Potential Timeline for 700 MHz LTE? (Patel View) OFDM/MIMO Demos Standards Complete 1st LTE devices (CI) (data cards) Interval from standards to mass roll-out has taken 4-6 years for 2.5G and 3G solutions, this timeline shows a 2.5 year interval for LTE (very aggressive) LTE Tech Trials 1st LTE Commercial Handsets First Customer Trials Initial LTE Deployments Affordable Data cards Affordable Handsets LTE Mass Rollout Vendors are aggressively building solutions in anticipation of a quick roll-out. However, there is debate in the industry on when there will be sufficient end-user demand for 4G data speeds, that can support the capital outlay necessary for LTE. 24 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

25 Rural Carrier Deployment Scenario WiMAX Deploy if you have 2.5 GHz spectrum (licensed spectrum) Consider for GHz (registered spectrum) Consider for 700 MHz (licensed spectrum, but only closed solutions available) Consider 900 MHz or other unlicensed spectrum LTE If you have 700 MHz, monitor LTE data card availability, deploy in 2H2010 or early 2011?? (affordable devices may not be available until much later) For 850/1900/AWS start with UMTS (7.2 and 14.4 Mbps) and evolve to HSPA+ (45 Mbps), and then go to LTE when affordable handsets are available 25 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

26 Greenfield Wireless Positioning Matrix United States Market Environment WiMAX LTE CDMA/EV-D0 W-CDMA/HSPA Standards IEEE802.16e 3GPP 3GPP2 3GPP Market Perception 3.5G 3.9G or 4G 3G or 3.5G 3G or 3.5G Mobility Full Mobility (to Fixed, nomadic and 350 km/h) simple mobility 2G/3G HandOff Mobile Mobile Standards Complete Initial Deployments Mass Market /2006 Spectrum 2.3, 2.5 GHz 700, AWS 850, 1900, AWS 850, 1900, AWS Modulation S-OFDMA DL: OFDMA UL: SC-FDMA CDMA CDMA Duplex Scheme TDD, FDD (new profile) FDD, TDD (2011) FDD FDD MIMO Schemes DL: 2 X 2 DL: 2X2, 4X2 UL: 1 X 2 UL: 1X2, 2X2 No Not Typical Core/Latency Flat Very Flat Heirarchical Heirarchical 30ms 10ms 50ms Bit Rates Mbps (5 Mhz) DL: UL: DL: 32.0 UL: 14.7 DL: 9.3 UL: 5.4 DL: 10.1 UL: 6.0 Voice Capacity Erl (5 Mhz) Voice VoIP VoIP (2011) Circuit Circuit Data Yes Yes Yes Yes Video Yes Yes Yes Yes Voice Capacity for LTE/W-CDMA with AMR12.2, CDMA with EVRC Technology Blocks Capabilities Bit Rates for LTE (2x2, 16QAM), HSPA (Rel 6, 1x2, 2008), EV-DO Rev A(1x2, 2006) Technology 26 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

27 Conclusion It s been a long climb to get to high end user data rates via mobile broadband... HSPA/EVDO and WiMAX (TDD) But just when we think we re close, it turns out we still have a ways to go! LTE WiMAX (FDD) 27 Migration to 4G April 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009