Cellular networks on the road to 5G: just more lanes or a junction?

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1 Cellular networks on the road to : just more lanes or a junction? Dr. Ir. Michael Peeters, CTO Wireless 2569 Big Telecom Event, ATIS Symposium, Chicago

2 In practice, technology had 3 years of evolution and disruption Year in commercial service Single carrier TD-SCDMA TD-SCDMA GSM GPRS EDGE E-GPRS2 CIoT? PDC WCDMA HSDPA/ HSUPA HSPA HSPA evol TDMA TD-LTE LTE-FDD LTE-adv LTE-adv? 2G CDMA X EV-DO rev EV-DO rev A EV-DO rev B 3G 4G FDD Smooth evolution Agreed disruption EV-DV UMB TDD Disruptive disruption WiMAX 6d WiMAX 6e WiMAX 6m 2

3 Just more of everything? 3.9Bn 72% 32M >5Bn People connected to the Internet in 27 Increase in video traffic More tablets sold in 24 than laptops and desktop computers combined Enterprise networking market revenue in 27 (US $) Bn Things connected to the Internet in 22 44% Increase in cloud and data center traffic X Increase in mobile broadband speed by 29 2X Increase in cloud computing market

4 + 4G/LTE addressing new markets Public Sectors Public Safety/Defense/Govt Fixed Wireless Access MOBILE BB DIVERSIFICATION Energy Utilities/Oil & Gaz Transportation Railways/Highways/Aviation Internet of Things 4

5 9 Key use Use case family Example use case Key technical requirement Broadband in dense areas Broadband everywhere Pervasive video Massive spectrum on small cell pushing need for new high band to achieve traffic density of up to 75 Gb/s per km2 in dense urban 5 Mb/s everywhere Significant improvement to cell edge bitrate to offer consistent user experience at target bitrate over 95% locations for 95% of time Ultra-low cost networks Flexible radio parameters for cost reduction when offering limited services (< Mb/s, >5ms, <2 Device/km2) Higher user mobility High speed train Flexible radio parameters for speeds up to 5 km/h Massive Internet of Things Sensor networks Connectionless service to offer scalable solution for device densities of up to 2kDevice/km2 and extended battery life Extreme real-time Tactile internet Flexible radio parameters for low latency down to ms Lifeline Natural disaster High availability and service recovery resilience mechanisms to ensure availability of basic communications (voice, text, etc.) with large battery life Ultra-reliable Public safety High reliability rates up to % (5 nines) implying need to eliminate single points of failure from network design Broadcast like Broadcast services Reuse of SFN techniques from LTE to offer efficient wide area service delivery 5

6 Where does 4G stumble? = 6 requirement drivers for BROADBAND Massive traffic capacity Reduce Cost Spectrum efficiency Access new spectrum INNOVATIVE SERVICES Flexible bearer design 3 rd party policy MISSION CRITICAL Very low latency High reliability High availability Security BATTERY LIFE Signaling reduction Energy optimization EXTREME DENSITY Massive user density User content NON TRADITIONAL DEVICES Short packet Sporadic access More devices and more device types 6

7 A divergence is coming: 2 asymptotes amount of traffic/sub/month Mobile voice, traffic scaling proportional to number of subs. 2G Start of mobile broadband. Usage per subscriber increasing. 3G 4G At the same time as ultra-broadband continues to grow, the rise of M2M traffic and number of subscribers causes diverging requirements, both technical and economical. Mobile entertainment, total traffic driven by average data usage instead of by number of subscribers. # of subscribers (= human or machine) 7

8 Vision = unified ecosystem Serving both traditional as well as potential new applications like drones, real time video surveillance, mobile augmented and virtual reality, IoT = Phase below 6GHz But also Ultra-narrowband Efficient sensing and + control added to LTE broadband; massive densities of low traffic devices and bearers Ultra low latency Mission critical specialized services and immersive virtual reality Phase 2 + above 2GHz But also Ultra-broadband Offering higher bitrates and supporting extreme traffic densities for the evolution of comms and entertainment Consistent experience Better bits rather than simply more cheap bits to offer a more wireline like experience 8

9 Technology evolution The broadband scenario is clear WiFi 82.n WiFi 82.ac WiFi 82.ad direct path: continues to serve tradional mobile BB case. LTE LTE-A LTE-U LTE-A evolution <6GHz LTE-A evolution mmwave trigger: last drop wire/ fiber replacement triggers: marketing; latency for augmented reality, games; enabling massive MIMO 9 ALCATEL-LUCENT PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL RESTRICTED SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW.

10 Technology evolution The broadband scenario is clear is narrowband sufficiently important? WiFi 82.n WiFi 82.ac WiFi 82.ad direct path: continues to serve tradional mobile BB case. LTE LTE-A LTE-U LTE-A evolution <6GHz LTE-A evolution mmwave trigger: LTE control overload; low latency control & command applications trigger: last drop wire/ fiber replacement triggers: marketing; latency for augmented reality, games; enabling massive MIMO

11 Narrowband and IoT: key requirements Not just sensors, but a wide spectrum Factor Requirements low end Requirements high end Range Peak data rate < bits/s UL (e.g. smart metering) > several Mb/s UL (e.g. security cameras) Latency > s (e.g. smart metering without control) < ms (e.g. ITS Intelligent Transportation Systems - ITS) Usage < event/day (e.g. intrusion alarm) continuous (e.g. security cameras) Coverage Normal (e.g. outdoor devices) +2 db (e.g. indoor devices located in basements) Mobility none (stationary devices) seamless (e.g. ITS devices) Device cost not an issue <4$ for e.g. smart meters Battery lifetime N/A (e.g. remotely-powered devices) > years (e.g. smart meters)

12 Predominance of short packets, today CDF Light Background: DL Packet Size Distribution Packet Size (bytes) CDF Heavier Background: DL Packet Size Distribution Packet Size (bytes) CDF Gaming: DL Packet Size Distribution Packet Size (bytes) CDF Interactive Content Pull: DL Packet Size Distribution Packet Size (bytes) Light Background: UL Packet Size Distribution Heavier Background: UL Packet Size Distribution Gaming: UL Packet Size Distribution Interactive Content Pull: UL Packet Size Distribution CDF Packet Size (bytes) CDF Packet Size (bytes) CDF Packet Size (bytes) CDF Packet Size (bytes) Data taken from 3GPP TR v..2 2

13 Burst profile from live LTE network in 24 Combined uplink and downlink.9 BURST SIZE burst size in bytes dormancy timer = 2 sec dormancy timer = 5 sec.9 NUMBER OF PACKETS PER BURST number of frames/burst dormancy timer = 2 sec dormancy timer = 5 sec probability < abscissa probability < abscissa log(burst size(bytes)) log(number frames/burst) SMART PHONE TRAFFIC CAN ALSO BENEFIT FROM SHORT BURST OPTIMIZATIONS 3

14 So: Why do we need a new & unified radio interface? When we talk about M2M subscribers, these are not just devices. Applications on smartphones are already generating a large amount (3%) of short bursty traffic. Similarly M2M gateways using cellular uplink will contribute to the total amount of narrowband traffic. M2M subscribers = # devices # applications/device Ultra-broadband already acts as a channel for part of the ultra-narrowband traffic. The ultrabroadband track will require the integration of many different networks. In order to steer traffic quickly, seamlessly, without impacting the end-user, an efficient control system need to be present. Efficient low latency narrowband communications benefit ultra-broadband as well. 4 ALCATEL-LUCENT PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL RESTRICTED SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW.

15 Key Technologies Ultra-broadband mm Wave Small Cells Ultra-narrowband Massive MIMO Radios New radio I/F Connless Consistent experience vran Ultra low latency SDN vepc Policy vims 5

16 Radio: UF-OFDM Filter added to OFDM Designed to meet new requirements - Contention based access for connection-less services - In-band optimization to devices and services - Higher capacity Universal Filtered OFDM (UF-OFDM) - New filter stage applied per sub-band - Cyclic prefix replaced by filter time response - More tolerant to power and timing errors Rel. power [db] Several tens of db improved out-of-band radiation UF-OFDM CP-OFDM - Reduced guard band requirements - May re-apply huge knowledge base of LTE processing [] F. Schaich, T. Wild, Y. Chen, Waveform contenders for - suitability for short packet and low latency transmissions, VTC 4 [2] NOW deliverable D Frequency spacing in subcarrier steps

17 Radio: Two new radio interfaces plus LTE and WLAN Driver LTE Evolution WLAN Low band (< 6 GHz) Ultra broadband Consistent experience Ultra low latency Ultra narrowband Role MIMO, HetNet and CoMP features Multi-RAT and Boost Higher spectrum efficiency High band (>2 GHz) Peak bitrates Massive capacity Capacity Capacity Contention access Massive capacity MTC features (to bridge gap until ) LTE coverage capacity extension Short range access Capacity extension Short packet Low latency Contention access coverage Specialized services Scheduled low latency service capacity extension in dense areas 7

18 Deployment Scenario <6GHz 2/3G <6GHz Legacy 4G 4G. LTE with carrier aggregation and dual-connectivity to small cell layer 2. New carrier on macro layer: Wide area coverage for new services, improved efficiency and control 3. Coverage extended on small cell 4. Massive capacity: Additional carriers above 2 GHz on small cells 5. Additional carriers in cellular bands on macro and small cells >2GHz >2GHz WLAN <6GHz 4G 8 4G Small cell (indoor) Macro ALCATEL-LUCENT PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL RESTRICTED SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW. Small cell

19 NGMN: GSMA: ITU-R IMT-22: 3GPP: -PPP: Alcatel-Lucent: 9

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