Leveraging the India Opportunity in Consumer Markets. Mai 2010

Transcription

1 Leveraging the India Opportunity in Consumer Markets Mai 2010

2 Contents Page A. India Urgency to act now! 3 B. India: A background 5 C. The India opportunity 13 D. Key factors for success in India 26 E. How Roland Berger and TSMG can help you to succeed 36 This document was created for our client. The client is entitled to use it for its own internal purposes. It must not be passed on to third parties except with the explicit prior consent of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. This document is not complete unless supported by the underlying detailed analyses and oral presentation Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH 2

3 A. India Urgency to act now! 3

4 Companies should plan to enter the Indian Consumer markets in the near term to leverage the India market opportunity Urgency for India Entry Large, fast growing markets present an attractive market opportunity 3 Increased competition in future 1 The India opportunity Key Factors 2 Organized retail as facilitator Companies should target a strong market position in 5-6 years in the Indian market to be a long term successful player in their respective segment Most global majors already in India / Going ahead, organized retailers in tie ups with Indian firms retail to provide access to Indian companies expanding into ~25% share of business in newer categories / multiple retail segments the larger cities (metros) Mid sized foreign companies Organized retail expected to grow entering India fast in last 3 in the next 5-6 years 4

5 B. India: A Background 5

6 India: A land of contrasts Many achievements World's largest democracy ~700 m registered voters with a free press and media 6

7 India: A land of contrasts Many achievements 4th largest economy (PPP), fast growing 2009 [All fig. in ~USD Trillion] Expected real GDP growth 2010 [%] US % China % Japan % India % Germany % India expected to become the third largest economy by 2030 Source: IMF 7

8 India: A land of contrasts Many achievements Amongst 3 countries to have built a supercomputer Amongst 7 countries to have built a car indigenously Amongst 6 countries having conducting a moon mission EKA: No. 18th amongst super computers (132 TF speed) Cars: Indica, Nano. MUVs: Scorpio, Xylo, Safari EV: Reva Spacecraft in lunar Orbit Chandrayaan 1 (2008) 8

9 India: A land of contrasts Many achievements Global hub for R&D Used by One fifth of Fortune 500 companies 9

10 India: A land of contrasts Many achievements Global source of Software services For 220 of Fortune 500 companies 10

11 India: A land of contrasts Also, numerous challenges Average per capita GDP $1,032 p.a. ($ 2,932 pa PPP) Significant proportion of population below poverty line Inadequate infrastructure: Roads, airports, seaports, power, mass transit Multiple local/state taxes and regulations. Entrenched bureaucracy Rank 133 in "Ease of Doing Business 2010" (World Bank) 11

12 72% population is rural. Urban comprises ~5,000 cities Numerous challenges India population [m] 2008 Urban population spread 1) Total 1,147 47% 20% 10% 23% URBAN (5,000+ cities and towns) 1, % of urban population 4,240 RURAL (600,000+ villages 828 All across India No of cities Greater than 0.5 Mio Mio Mio. <0.05 Mio. 1) Urban split based on 2001 census data Source: Census India, Analysis by Tata Strategic 12

13 C. The India opportunity 13

14 India is expected to accelerate its growth over the next few years Indian economy: Real GDP growth prospects Average (5 years) DRIVERS 9.0% 6.7% 7.2% 8.3% 8.9% Savings rate Investment Domestic consumption Current account deficit ~2% Year Starting April 1 Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, World Bank 14

15 Share of working population is likely to further increase India demographic dividend India age mix [m, % to total] Total population [in m] 1,112 1, (32%) 340 (27%) 83 (7%) 669 (61%) 118 (9%) 811 (64%) years >60 years <14 years Source: Census India, Analysis by Tata Strategic 15

16 Urban population will continue to expand Urbanization India urban population [m] % of Total 28.6% 29.7% 30.8% 32.0% Source: Census India, Analysis by Tata Strategic 16

17 Mid income households are expected to grow rapidly Income pyramid: India No of households [in m, at Prices] Annual income ['000 EUR 1) ] Annual income ['000 EUR PPP] ~236 ~ Super Premium Premium/ International Mass Affluent >40 > Mass Basic < 2 < E Growing market for huge volumes at "right price". Potential centre for low cost innovation & business models 1) 1 EUR = INR 60 Source: NCAER, IMF, Analysis by Tata Strategic 17

18 Trends impacting consumer markets in India Consumer market trends High share of young population Increasing incomes Faster urbanization Smaller families Increasing literacy More working women Need for distinct offerings for various consumer segments Faster acceptance of newer products/services Shift from unbranded to branded products Increasing demand for health & wellness and convenience led offerings Greater role of organized retail 18

19 Consumption of packaged food in India is expected to increase substantially in the short to medium term Packaged food: India vs. global Packaged food spend as % of per capita disposable income for different income levels Packaged food spend as % of pe er capita 1.9% 9.2% 10.2% India at the bottom of the curve, likely to see inflection 10.2% 9.1% 6.0% ,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 3,000-5,000 >5,000 Per capita disposable income intervals Key countries India China Indonesia Egypt Argentina Brazil Thailand Russia Malaysia S. Africa Chile Mexico S. Arabia US UK Australia Source: Morgan Stanley, Analysis by Tata Strategic 19

20 The food & beverage sector in India presents a significant opportunity with scope for large and mid-sized players Packaged Food & Beverage (F&B) F&B market size [USD bn] Key sub-sectors Key multi-national players Dairy Large Mid-sized 13% 107 Processed F&V Snacks Bakery Ready to Eat Foods Ready to Cook Foods Nestle Unilever SAB Miller PepsiCo Coca Cola Perfetti Van Melle Good Food Dr. Oetker Orkla 46 Beer Source: Tata Strategic 20

21 Home and personal care categories are significantly under-penetrated in India HPC: India vs. global HPC spend trajectory HPC per capita spend [USD] Brazil 100 South Africa Mexico 50 India China Thailand ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Per capita disposable income [USD] Source: Morgan Stanley, EIU, Analysis by Tata Strategic 21

22 The home & personal sector in India is expected to become a USD 20 bn market opportunity by 2014 Home & personal care market HPC market size [USD bn] Key sub-sectors Key multi-national players Skin care Large Mid-sized Cosmetics Unilever Beiersdorf 15% 23 Deodorants Fabric Care P&G Reckitt Wella Oriflame Floor Cleaning L Oreal S.C Johnson Insect Repellants Henkel Source: Tata Strategic 22

23 Going ahead, the Indian market is further expected to present opportunities for innovation and reduced business complexity Infocomm growth and domestic reforms I Infocom ubiquity & usage Mobile subscriber base expected to reach 800 Mn by 2012 Broadbrand subscriber base expected to reach Mn. by G services expected to be launched nationwide in 2011 Web 2.0 Newer media New Businesses New Business Models New Media Ubiquitous mobile internet Growing broadband users II Next domestic reforms e.g. GST GST expected in April 2011 Would enable significant rationalization of distribution and logistics networks Source: Crisinfac, Government of India, Analysis by Tata Strategic 23

24 Share of organized retail in India is low currently Share of organized retail [%] 80% 33% 36% 40% 20% 22% 6% India China Vietnam Russia Brazil Thailand UK Source: Images Retail, Analysis by Tata Strategic 24

25 The organized retail market in India will present multiple opportunities within its USD 70 bn market size by 2015 Organized retail Organized retail market size [USD bn] Key sub-sectors Key multi-national players 20 20% 70 Food & grocery Large Mid-sized/niche Home improvement Walmart 1 Jockey Consumer durables Tesco 1 Samsonite Apparel Woolworths 1 B&O Food Service Benetton Swarovski Opportunity for single Adidas Mont Blanc brand retail, franchise and Nike Gucci wholesale / cash & carry Levis Source: Tata Strategic 25

26 Modern Trade contributes to ~5% of retail sales in India India retail structure Channel segment Outlets Sales contribution Modern Trade 0.05% ~5% Wholesale Mass Traditional Retail Key Accounts Traditional Retail Canteen Stores Department (Defence Services) 3% 90-95% 3-5% 0.5% 20-25% 40-50% 20-25% 5-10% Source: Analysis by Tata Strategic 26

27 Modern Trade in India has multiple players across various formats Key F&G retail players & formats PLAYER Metro Bharti (Walmart) Trent (Tesco) Reliance Aditya Birla Retail Future Group K Raheja Spencers Dairy Farm Int'l Key store brand FORMAT Cash & Carry Planned Hypermarkets Supermarkets Convenience Source: Company Websites 27

28 Modern trade represents both an opportunity and a threat for FMCG manufacturers in India Key retail trends & implications for FMCG players 1 Entry into new categories, formats & geographies Implications for FMCG Manufacturers Increased points of sale Enhanced channel conflict 2 Margin pressures Harder terms of trade with retailers, resulting in lower margins 3 Increasing focus on private labels Pressure on brands to maintain shelf and sales share 4 Initiatives for improving supply chain efficiencies Better availability 5 Single point negotiations with retailers Easier control, better efficiencies 6 Merchandising & interaction with consumers at point-of-sale Facilitates new product launches and impulse sales Source: Analysis by Tata Strategic 28

29 D. Key factors for success in India 29

30 Wheel has become a USD 450 m brand in India Case study: Wheel detergent (Unilever) Wheel was introduced as a counter to a new competitor's (Nirma) sudden upsurge in the lower priced mass segment Wheel developed for the Indian market not part of the global portfolio Third party manufacturing introduced Flexible pricing policy based on geographic differential in taxation and input price fluctuation No. 1 detergent brand in India Became the world's largest selling detergent by volume Sales of ~USD 450 min India in 2009, largest brand for Unilever India Source: Industry sources, Company websites, Analysis by Tata Strategic 30

31 Nokia has become the dominant mobile handset player in India Case study: Nokia Wide product range straddling all consumer segments: Prices from EUR 20 to 800 Product innovations to suit Indian market e.g. Nokia 1100 Features like torch, better grip, dustproof Priced at ~EUR 20 Alliance with local company for nationwide distribution 1) Local manufacture of low cost high volume handsets Largest Nokia factory ~100 m phones pa ~60% value market share in 2009 (~USD 3 bn) 1) HCL Infosystems is a local company has a nationwide network for computer & laptop distribution Source: Industry sources, Company websites, Analysis by Tata Strategic 31

32 McDonalds has adapted to suit Indian tastes Case study: McDonald's India Focused on catering to Indian preferences Created localized products No hamburger served Segregated vegetarian cooking "Indian" price to expand consumer base Know-how transfer to develop long term suppliers Home delivery model pioneered in India Store expansion current 157 to ~350 by 2015 Vegetarian burger at EUR 30 cents Source: Industry sources, Company websites, Analysis by Tata Strategic 32

33 Marketing mix innovations drove Pepsico India's success Case study: Pepsico India (Frito Lay) Salty extruded snacks (Kurkure) developed to suit spicy Indian palate nearly 40% of total revenues (2008) Attractive price points maintained in snack food Rs 5,10,20 (EUR 8,15,30 cents ) High retail penetration led by innovative point-of-sale solutions Overall market share of ~45% in branded snacks (2008) Kurkure to be taken global (Walkers brand) "It is the most talked about brand and has generated great interest in the US, UK, South Africa, Australia and West Asia" Source: Industry sources, Company websites, Analysis by Tata Strategic 33

34 Kelloggs' relaunch succeeded with an India specific strategy Case study: Kellogg's India Reformulated products to meet Indian dietary habits i.e. preference for hot milk Developed India specific fortified range Iron Shakti Affordable packs for Rs 10 (EUR 15 cents) High visibility in modern retail outlets Currently 70% value share in ready-to-eat cereals market Source: Industry sources, Company websites, Analysis by Tata Strategic 34

35 Perfertti Van Melle is the market leader in confectionery Case study: Perfetti van Melle India focused value proposition: Extensive, efficient distribution in traditional retail channels; available in 1 m outlets Thrust on mono-pack sales to tap all segments India specific brands e.g. Chatar Patar Strong brands created through innovative advertising campaigns Market leader in the Indian confectionary market with ~30% value share Source: Industry sources, Company websites, Analysis by Tata Strategic 35

36 Figaro is the largest player in the fast growing olive oil segment Case study: Figaro Olive Oil Spain based Figaro was one of the first players to market olive oil in India Leveraged on growing demand for healthier edible oils Able to target the price insensitive premium segment despite additional cost of imports Conducted awareness campaigns on olive oil in its niche target group "Good for heart" edible oils likely to grow at ~35% over the next 5 years Market leader with 20-25% market share Source: Industry sources, Company websites, Analysis by Tata Strategic 36

37 Aqua Montana, a German beverage player has recently entered India with plans for a long term play Case study: Aqua Montana Aqua Montana, set up in 1997 is based out of Munich and is a medium sized importer and bottler of non alcoholic beverages, including mineral water in Germany In 2007, Aqua Montana in Germany produced approximately 7 m hl of beverages. Entering India with diet carbonated beverage slim and energy drink explode. To enter iced tea and mountain water subsequently Plans to achieve ~USD 10 m revenues in year 1 and double it in year 2 Finalized 3 bottling contracts in 3 different regions in India Source: Industry sources, Company websites, Analysis by Tata Strategic 37

38 Market leaders have created an India specific business model in their respective spaces Key success factors Value proposition aligned to local market needs Price for target customers Distribution/reach Conforming with regulations central, state, city Acceptability Affordability Availability 38

39 E. How Roland Berger and TSMG can help you to succeed 39

40 Roland Berger and Tata Strategic Management Group have formed an alliance to cover your India needs Benefits of a strong alliance Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Common values Global best practices know-how Sound expertise in Indian markets and industries Premium access to Indian as well as global companies and networks Tata Strategic Management Group 40

41 Tata Strategic Management Group is the largest Indian owned management consulting firm Tata strategic overview Founded in 1991 as a division of Tata Industries Ltd. The largest Indian owned Management Consulting firm Over 70 member strong Consulting Team Supported by a panel of domain experts Growing client base outside India 500+ engagements, 100+ clients, across countries, across sectors Increasing presence outside the Tata Group & India 50+% revenue outside Tata Group 20% revenue outside India 41

42 We can support your India entry with a wide array of offerings Consumer Markets: India entry offerings for manufacturers Entry strategy Market understanding/assessment Market entry: new products, markets, value proposition, pricing, positioning customers, channels Operations/organization Supply chain strategy Manufacturing strategy Procurement strategy Organization structure design India Entry: Consumer Market offerings Growth/competitive strategy Distribution alliance Rural market strategy Health and wellness strategy Acquisition advisory Market scan and target identification Strategic due diligence 42

43 Why are we best suited to partner you in India entry? In-depth understanding of India Consumer Market landscape Right mix of strong industry experience and consulting know-how Established methodologies & tools Access to global benchmarks and best practices Our resolve to deliver innovative, actionable India-specific solutions 43

44 Contacts at Roland Berger Tata Strategic PANKAJ GUPTA PRACTICE HEAD Consumer & Retail (TSMG) Phone: Mobile: Fax: ANDREAS BAUER PARTNER Head of competence center Consumer Goods & Retail (RB) Phone: +49 (89) Mobile: +49 (160) Fax: +49 (89) ALESSANDRA CAMA PRINCIPAL Consumer Goods & Retail (RB) Phone: +49 (89) Mobile: +49 (160) Fax: +49 (89)

45 THANK YOU 45