GO TRANSIT FEASIBILITY STUDY

Transcription

1 GO TRANSIT FEASIBILITY STUDY FINAL REPORT Prepared for the City of Kawartha Lakes By APRIL 2013

2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... I 1. INTRODUCTION Study Context Study Objective Study Scope STUDY AREA Overview Comparison of Service Areas Existing Transit Service EXISTING AND FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND (TTS) Existing Travel Demand (2006) Peterborough/Kawartha Lakes Travel Demand School Trip Travel Demand Fleming College Survey Results Park and Ride Survey Passenger Survey TRANSIT IMPROVEMENT OPTIONS Development and Preliminary Screening of Options Service Level/Schedules Potential Passenger Demand OPTION DISCUSSION SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS APPENDICES Appendix A Transit Schedules Appendix B Potential Transit Service Schedules Appendix C Fleming College GO Transit Survey Summary Report Page i

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study has been undertaken to assess the feasibility of providing improved transit services within the City of Kawartha Lakes. In particular, the study reviewed the implications for initiating a new GO Bus service between Lindsay and the GO Rail line in Oshawa in south Durham. The study also reviewed the potential and implications for initiating a bus service between Lindsay and Peterborough. The findings and conclusions of the assessment are summarized as follows: 1. The current population of the City of Kawartha Lakes is approximately 73,200 with approximately 20,300 residing within the Town of Lindsay. Over the last five years there has been a decline in population in the City of Kawartha Lakes area surrounding Lindsay while the Town itself has increased in population. The City of Kawartha Lakes Official Plan, 2011, predicts a growth in population to 100,000 by 2031 with approximately half of the growth taking place within the Town of Lindsay. 2. The Fleming College Lindsay campus currently has an enrolment of approximately 1500 students and is expected to grow over the next few years. 3. The GO Bus service initiated to Peterborough in 2009 has experienced reasonable success and has reached the forecast ridership based on available 2011 counts. At this ridership level the cost recovery is approximately 57%. (based on GO passenger figures and costs) 4. Based on the Transportation for Tomorrow Survey (TTS) data for 2001 and 2006, travel demand between Peterborough and the City of Kawartha Lakes (including Lindsay on its own) and Toronto has declined. Travel demand between Peterborough and overall the City of Kawartha Lakes has increased while travel between Lindsay and Durham decreased slightly. Note that 2011 TTS data has not been made available to date. 5. In 2006, over 21,000 trips were made between City of Kawartha Lakes and the Region of Durham. Of these trips nearly 6300 were related to Lindsay proper and of those nearly 2100 travelled to/from lower Durham (south of Rossland Rd.) 6. Over 4300 trips were made between the City of Kawartha Lakes and the City of Toronto of which approximately 1000 were related to the Town of Lindsay. The majority of these trips were to/from downtown Toronto and south of Highway 401 between Scarborough and Etobicoke. 7. Based on past trends, travel between the City of Kawartha Lakes and Toronto and lower Durham is likely to see limited if any growth and could decline further. This could be confirmed when the 2011 TTS travel statistics become available. 8. Based on TTS statistics as well as data collected during the study, there is significant latent demand for transit services in the City. 9. Four transit service options were reviewed. The performance for all of the options is reasonable with revenue cost ratios ranging from 38% to 75%. 10. Of the two GO Transit options considered to provide service between Lindsay and the Lakeshore GO Rail line, Option 2, the weekday extension of the Port Perry service via Highways 7A and 35, performs best given the lower cost of the service. However, this option would be less attractive to Page E-i

4 potential passengers than the direct service offered by Option 1 due to the extended travel time of the routing. A new weekend service could attract additional passengers on the portion of the route south of Port Perry. 11. The Option 1 service, direct to Oshawa GO Station (Figure E1), indicates reasonable performance with basic service. 12. GO Transit should be formally requested to consider the implementation of the Option 1 basic service. If the response is negative, the City could consider the implementation of Option 3, the shuttle service to the Clarington North P&R lot, as a precursor to future GO Transit service. 13. Option 4, the service between Lindsay and Peterborough, is meant to serve a latent demand for such a connection. In addition to general demand for travel in this corridor, this has been confirmed by the survey of Fleming College students. There is potential for the excess costs to be shared with the City of Peterborough and/or Fleming College. Page E-ii

5 1. Introduction 1.1 Study Context The City of Kawartha Lakes wishes to examine the feasibility and potential for improving transit throughout the municipality and beyond including enhanced links to the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area. At present, the nearest access to GO Transit service for residents of the City of Kawartha Lakes is the Clarington North Park and Ride lot located at Highway 35, north of Highway 115 just south of the hamlet of Pontypool. This lot is currently served by the Peterborough GO Transit Route No. 88 operating from Trent University at the north end of the City to the Oshawa GO Station in western Oshawa south of Highway 401. GO Transit, a division of Metrolinx, operates an extensive network of interregional transit including seven rail lines and numerous bus routes. The current GO Transit network serves the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) as well as the regional municipalities of Waterloo and Niagara, the cities of Orangeville, Guelph, Barrie, and parts of Simcoe, Wellington, and Peterborough counties. Since 2008, the expansion of the GO Transit network has been guided by two long term planning documents: a) The Big Move, 2008, which focuses primarily on improving transportation within the GTHA; and, b) GO2020, 2008 which covers the existing GO Transit service area as well as the Greater Golden Horseshoe area. GO2020 committed GO Transit to consider service extensions to all urban growth centres outside the GTHA. Since then, service has been extended to all urban growth centres except Brantford, which is outside the GO Transit service area. (O.Reg. 189/09). GO Transit now serves twenty-four of the twentyfive urban growth centres designated by the Province in the Growth Plan for Greater Golden Horseshoe, GO2020 and the Big Move plans did not identify the possibility of a new service to the City of Kawartha Lakes as the municipality is outside of the GTHA and does not contain a designated urban growth centre. In discussions with GO transit staff, it was suggested that all new routes must be thoroughly examined to determine its potential viability and suitability. New routes must meet a minimum level of productivity (e.g. revenue-cost ratio, and, in future, passenger km/revenue kilometer) for the service operating at a minimum frequency (e.g. 30 minute headways for peak period, peak direction service) over a period of at least two hours. Page 1

6 1.2 Study Objective The primary objective of this study is to examine the potential for improving transit throughout the City of Kawartha Lakes and beyond. This includes a review of enhanced interregional links to the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area through the provision a new GO service between the City of Kawartha Lakes and the Lakeshore GO Rail line as well as a connection between Lindsay and Peterborough. 1.3 Study Scope To determine the feasibility of any improved transit service the study addresses the following: Potential ridership; Required levels of service (frequency, span of service); Optimal routing and stop locations; Location of required layover and bus driver facilities; Location of any supporting infrastructure; and, An analysis of potential costs and revenues for the service. 2. Study Area 2.1 Overview The study area focuses on the City of Kawartha Lakes, City of Peterborough, Peterborough County, the Region of Durham and the City of Toronto. Connections to other municipalities outside of the study area were considered as deemed appropriate. (See Figure 1) 2.2 Background Consideration of improved transit services within the City of Kawartha Lakes and to other surrounding municipalities was brought about following the introduction of GO Transit service from the City of Peterborough to the GO Oshawa Rail Station in The Peterborough service provides 10 weekday trips and 6 Sat/Sun weekend trips in each direction from Trent University to the Oshawa GO Rail Station. The route operates on local streets within Peterborough and via Highways 115/401 to the Oshawa GO Station and serves a number of park and ride lots along the way including south Peterborough, Cavan/Millbrook, Clarington North (Highway 35) and Clarington (Highway 2). Page 2

7 Total ridership averages approximately 275 passenger per week day and 255 passengers on weekend days. (Feb. 2011) The daily riderhip is comparable to the ridership estimate developed in the feasibility report prepared in 2006 even though the demand was based on a more frequent service and on projected travel growth between Peterborough and Toronto which has not occurred. In fact, travel demand between the two centres is declining based on the TTS data for 2001 and The City of Kawartha Lakes, formed in 2001, is an amalgamation of the communities of Victoria County. The large region is centred on the Town of Lindsay, the largest municipality in the City. The overall population for the City is approximately 73,000 (2011 census) with approximately 20,000 people residing in the Town of Lindsay. This compares to approximately in the County of Peterborough of which approximately 78,000 live in the City of Peterborough. Page 3

8 In terms of age distribution, approximately 20% of Peterborough residents are over the age of 65 while in Lindsay that figure is over 25%. 2.3 Comparison of Service Areas The Peterborough GO service terminates within the City of Peterborough but also draws from the whole of Peterborough County. Similarly, a proposed service to the City of Kawartha Lakes would focus on the Town of Lindsay but draw from the passenger demand from the City as a whole. The following provides a comparison of the two service areas and their growth in population between 2001 and Table 2.1 illustrates that the Town of Lindsay has approximately one quarter the population of the City of Peterborough. The growth in population for both municipalities for the last ten years has been about one percent annually. However, for the remaining area of City of Kawartha Lakes and the County of Peterborough, while population grew between 2001and 2006, it declined between 2006 and Table POPULATION GROWTH Growth % Annual Grth % 2011 Growth % Annual Grth % Kawartha Lakes (incl. Lindsay) 69,179 74,561 5, % 1.54% 73,214-1, % 0.35% Kawartha Lakes (w/o Lindsay) 51,422 55,200 3, % 1.40% 52,860-2, % -0.88% Town of Lindsay 17,757 19,361 1, % 1.80% 20, % 1.00% Peterborough County (incl. City) 125, ,080 7, % 1.15% 134,933 1, % 0.28% Peterborough County (w/o City) 53,856 57,674 3, % 1.40% 56,235-1, % -0.50% City of Peterborough 72,000 75,406 3, % 0.90% 78,698 3, % 0.86% Origin: Statistics Canada Page 4

9 2.4 Existing Transit Service Can-Ar Coach provides bus service in the form of one trip each way between Toronto and Haliburton through Lindsay. The adult fare for trips between Lindsay and to Toronto is $34.50 per trip. Local transit provides service within the Town, 6 days per week between 7 am and 7 pm. No transit service is provided from Lindsay on Highway 35 south to Highway 115/401 and Oshawa GO Station. In the area, Greyhound provides 8 trips between Peterborough and Toronto, 7 days per week at a standard cost of $18.50 per trip. Various fares are available ranging from $12.05 to $ Current schedules for the above services are attached in Appendix A. GO Transit provides 10 trips weekdays between Trent University and Oshawa GO Station and 6 trips Saturdays, Sunday and Holidays. The standard adult fare from Trent University to Oshawa is $12.10 and $16.90 to Union Station. Various fare category discounts are available. 3. Existing and Future Travel Demand (TTS) 3.1 Existing Travel Demand (2006) To assist in the development of potential ridership for a new transit service originating in Lindsay, an analysis was undertaken using the 2006 Transportation for Tomorrow survey results. The following Tables 3.1 and 3.2, provide a comparison for trips to/from the City of Kawartha Lakes, mainly Lindsay, and the City and County of Peterborough. (The 2011 TTS results have not been made available to date) Trips to Lower Durham (south of Rossland Road) are also shown since proximity to the GO service should have an impact on trip generation/attraction to any service. From a County and City perspective, Peterborough County generates nearly 97% more trips than the City of Kawartha Lakes with only 78% greater population. The tables also illustrate that the greatest travel demand, other than local area trips for both Peterborough County/City and the City of Kawartha Lakes/ Town of Lindsay, is to/from Durham Region with a secondary demand to/from the City of Toronto. Page 5

10 Table ALL DAY REGIONAL TRIP GENERATION Region From Kawartha Lakes To Kawartha Lakes From Peterborough County To Peterborough County 1 Toronto 2,264 2,078 1,701 1,722 2 Durham 10,512 10,903 5,897 6,048 3 York 1,822 1, Peel Halton Hamilton Niagara Waterloo Guelph Wellington Orangeville Barrie Simcoe 1,110 1, Kawartha Lakes 104, ,114 8,210 8, Peterborough City 6,400 6, , , Peterborough County 1,854 1,850 31,337 58, Orillia Dufferin Brantford Brant External 1,639 1,592 4,166 3, Unknown TOTAL 131, , , ,924 Lower Durham 3,433 3,432 3,108 3, % 31.5% 52.7% 50.2% Note: City of Kawartha Lakes includes Lindsay trips and Peterborough County includes City of Peterborough trips. Origin:2006 TTS Page 6

11 Table ALL DAY REGIONAL TRIPS Region From City of Peterborough To City of Peterborough From Town of Lindsay To Town of Lindsay 1 Toronto 1,058 1, Durham 3,632 3,783 2,972 3,297 3 York Peel Halton Hamilton Niagara Waterloo Guelph Wellington Orangeville Barrie Simcoe Kawartha Lakes 6,359 6,400 59,730 59, Peterborough City 164, ,935 1,850 1, Peterborough County 27,548 27, Orillia Dufferin Brantford Brant External 1, Unknown TOTAL 206, ,224 67,224 66,870 Lower Durham 1,877 1, ,086 Origin: 2006 TTS 52% 49% 34% 33% Page 7

12 3.2 Peterborough/Kawartha Lakes Travel Demand Table 3.3 below summarizes the results of the TTS survey for the years 2001 and 2006 for trip generation from Peterborough, the City of Kawartha Lakes and Lindsay in particular. Although it should be mentioned that the sample size of the surveys is relatively small and may be prone to skewing, the data does reveal some interesting information about trip demand in the defined study areas. Table PETERBOROUGH /KAWARTHA LAKES TRIP GENERATION Growth % Peterborough to Toronto 1,754 1, % Toronto to Peterborough 1,825 1, % Peterborough County to Toronto 1, % Toronto to Peterborough County 1, % Lindsay to Toronto % Toronto to Lindsay % Kawartha Lakes to Toronto w/o Lindsay 1,725 1, % Toronto to Kawartha Lakes w/o Lindsay 1,851 1, % Peterborough to Lower Durham 1,349 1, % Lower Durham to Peterborough 1,386 1, % Lindsay to Lower Durham 1, % Lower Durham to Lindsay 1,112 1, % Kawartha Lakes to Lower Durham w/o Lindsay 2,113 2, % Lower Durham to Kawartha Lakes w/o Lindsay 2,386 2, % Peterborough County to Lower Durham 1,113 1, % Lower Durham to Peterborough County 1,200 1, % Origin: 2001 and 2006 TTS The figures indicate that travel between Peterborough and Toronto and Lindsay and Toronto has declined significantly. Travel between Lindsay and Lower Durham has declined while travel between Peterborough and Lower Durham has increased. Trips from Peterborough County and the City of Kawartha Lakes (w/o Lindsay) to Lower Durham have increased while trips from Lower Durham to those areas have decreased slightly. Page 8

13 The following tables provide a greater breakdown of the trips to and from the City of Kawartha Lakes and Lindsay, in particular, for trip destinations in Toronto and Durham. Toronto Trips Table 3.4A - Trip Purpose - Kawartha Lakes to Toronto Trips Trip Purpose Kawartha Lakes to Toronto % Lindsay to Toronto % Kawartha Lakes w/o Lindsay % Work % % % School % % 0 0.0% Discretionary 1, % % % Other % % % Total 2, % % 1, % Table 3.4B - Trip Purpose - Kawartha Lakes from Toronto Trips Trip Purpose Kawartha Lakes from Toronto % Lindsay from Toronto % Kawartha Lakes w/o Lindsay % Work % % % School 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Discretionary % % % Other % % % Total 2, % % 1, % Origin: 2006 TTS As indicated work trips account for between 40-47% of all trips to and from Toronto. School trips are minimal at 3% to Toronto but 0% in the reverse direction. As illustrated, discretionary trips also account for a high percentage of overall trip demand and other trips account for the remainder. Page 9

14 Durham Region Trips 3.5A - Trip Purpose - Kawartha Lakes to Durham Trips Trip Purpose Kawartha Lakes to Durham % Lindsay to Lower Durham % Kawartha Lakes w/o Lower Durham % Work 4, % % 4, % School % 0 0.0% % Discretionary 4, % % 4, % Other % % % Total 10, % % 9, % 3.5B - Trip Purpose - Kawartha Lakes from Durham Trips Trip Purpose Kawartha Lakes from Durham % Lindsay from Lower Durham % Kawartha Lakes w/o Lower Durham % Work 5, % % 4, % School % 0 0.0% % Discretionary 4, % % 4, % Other 1, % % % Total 10, % 1, % 9, % Origin: 2006 TTS Similarly for Durham trips, work makes up between 40 and 45% of the demand except for trips to Lindsay where work accounts for nearly 60% of all trips. There are no school trips to/from lower Durham but school trips to/from the remainder of Durham Region account for % of all trips. The zone containing Durham College and OUIT attracted 35 or about 15% of the total school trips from the City of Kawartha Lakes. Again, discretionary trips account for a high percentage of total trips and other trips account for the remainder. Page 10

15 3.3 School Trip Travel Demand Both Peterborough and Lindsay are centres for higher level education facilities that draw students from outside the communities. In the case of Peterborough, both Trent University and Fleming College have established facilities. Lindsay is also the home of a Fleming College campus. In addition, in south Durham, the Ontario University Institute of Technology and Durham College have campuses within an easy bus ride of Oshawa GO station. The current Peterborough GO service originates at Trent University and carries a significant number of students on a daily and weekly basis to and from the University. In determining potential demand for service between Lindsay and the Lakeshore GO line in Oshawa, information was collected on the current student populations for all of the education facilities. Table 3.6, below, summarizes the information collected. Table 3.6 Potential Student Demand Facility Full Time Students Students from Lindsay/ Peterborough* Students from Durham Fleming College Lindsay* 1,575 8% 8% Fleming College Peterborough* 4,325 10% 9% Trent University Peterborough 7, (4 in residence) NA Durham College Oshawa 8, NA OUIT Oshawa 9, per year % commute NA *NOTE: Students attending Frost Campus living in Peterborough or attending Sutherland campus living in Lindsay. (From student survey) Following the inquiry to Fleming College re student demand for bus service, the administration undertook a travel survey of students at both the Lindsay (Frost) and Peterborough (Sutherland) campuses. The full results of the survey are included as Appendix C of this report. A summary of the results is outlined below. Page 11

16 3.4 Fleming College Survey Results Fleming College undertook a web based travel survey of travel demand for bus service between Lindsay and Oshawa GO station and between Lindsay and Peterborough. The survey was ed to all registered students at both the Frost (Lindsay) and Sutherland (Peterborough) campuses and asked that it be returned by a November 18, 2012 deadline. Over 600 valid surveys were returned. The following Table 3.7 provides the highlights from the survey with regard to existing and potential travel demand. Table Fleming Student Travel Survey Lindsay Peterborough Student population 1,575 4,325 Survey Response Percent response 19.9% 6.7% Live in Durham during school 8.0% 9.0% Commute from Durham* 18.0% 19.0% Use GO service for commute 3.1% 2.9% Currently use GO service - Peterborough to Oshawa 33.0% 56.0% Would use service Lindsay to Oshawa 93.0% 58.0%# Currently travel between Lindsay and Peterborough Would use service if provided between Lindsay and Peterborough 62.0% 49.0% 77.0% 50.0% NOTE: *Discrepancy between living in and commuting from Durham. # Irrational response, not used in any calculations As might be expected there was a strong survey response from the Frost Campus in Lindsay since transit service to and from points outside the area is virtually non-existent. Survey results suggest that: 8% of responding students currently commute from the Region of Durham to the Frost Campus in Lindsay. 33% of responding Frost students make some use of the existing Peterborough GO service. 93% of responding Frost students would use a service from Lindsay to Oshawa GO station if implemented. 62% of responding Frost students currently travel to/from Peterborough on occasion. 77% of responding Frost students would use a transit service between Lindsay and Peterborough if implemented. Page 12

17 In addition, of the 125 comments submitted with the student survey, 80 or 64% supported the implementation of a bus service between Lindsay and Oshawa GO Station and 42 or 34% supported the implementation of a transit service between Lindsay and Peterborough. 3.5 Park and Ride Survey In order to assist in determining potential demand for a bus service, on November 15 and 22, 2012, a field survey of designated park and ride lots was undertaken to identify the number of cars from the City Kawartha Lakes and Lindsay, in particular. License plates were recorded for cars parked in each lot and a trace was completed by the MTO using postal codes to determine residence of the vehicles. The following Table 3.8 summarizes the findings of the survey. Table 3.8 Results of License Plate Trace Survey Location Cars KL % Lindsay % Total % Oshawa GO Station 1, % 5 0.3% % Newcastle P&R % 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Clarington N. P&R % 1 6.3% % Hwy 35/7A P&R % % % Lindsay P&R % % % Total 1, % % % Trent University % 1 1.4% 1 1.4% Peterborough S. P&R % 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Cavan/Millbrook P&R % 1 2.1% 1 2.1% Total % 2 1.0% 2 1.0% Overall Total 1, % % % The results of the survey suggest that there are a limited number of people from the City of Kawartha Lakes currently taking advantage of the park and ride opportunities presented. Page 13

18 3.5.1 Passenger Survey In addition to the license plate trace, the opportunity was taken to interview some of the passengers boarding the existing Peterborough GO bus. The following Table 3.9 summarizes the responses. Table Bus Passenger Survey Inbound Outbound Total % Trip purpose Work % School % Other % Total % Origin Peterborough % Toronto % Oshawa % Other % Total % Destination Toronto % Oshawa % Other % Total % Peterborough % Cavan % Newcastle % Lindsay via Clarington % Total % Commute Frequency Irregular % Weekly % 2 days per week % 3 days per week % 4 days per week % 5 days per week % Total % Page 14

19 The results illustrate that over 50% of trips are for work purposes and 10% for school while the remainder are discretionary trips. Forty percent (40%) of trips were destined to Toronto, 20% to Durham and the remainder to other locations. Nearly 40% of trips were regular (5 days per week) as well as irregular and the remaining 20% were occasional (1-4 times per week). 4. Transit improvement Options 4.1 Development and Preliminary Screening of Options The following are considered to be viable service routing options for improved transit service in the City Kawartha Lakes. The focus of the improved service is to provide a connection from the City of Kawartha Lakes to the Lakeshore GO rail service. In addition, consideration was also given to the provision of service between Lindsay and Peterborough. The route options are shown on Figure 2. Lindsay to Oshawa GO Station Provide similar service to Peterborough route with direct service from downtown Lindsay to the Oshawa GO station. (Carried Forward) Lindsay to meet Peterborough service at Highway 35/115 Provide GO or private service from downtown Lindsay to meet all Peterborough route trips at existing park and ride lot at Highway 35/115. (Carried Forward) Lindsay to meet rerouted Peterborough service at Highway 35/7A Provide GO or private service from downtown Lindsay to meet all Peterborough route trips rerouted via Highway 7A to Highway 35 at existing park and ride lot at Highway 35/7A. (Eliminated) Lindsay to meet service in Port Perry Provide GO or private service from downtown Lindsay to meet all GO Transit Port Perry route trips in downtown Port Perry. (Eliminated) Extended Port Perry service to Lindsay Extend current GO Transit Port Perry trips to downtown Lindsay. (Carried Forward) Lindsay to Peterborough Provide a service from downtown Lindsay to the Peterborough bus terminal. This route could be provided as an addition to transit service in the region and also act as a connection to the existing GO service to Oshawa GO Station. (Carried Forward) Table 4.1 provides a high level screening of the options based on consideration of directness of route, travel time, areas served, need to transfer, and diversion of existing passengers. Of the six options outlined, three were carried forward as options to provide service to the existing GO Rail corridor. The Page 15

20 fourth secondary option, providing service between Lindsay and Peterborough, was also carried forward for evaluation. All options serving Lindsay would be routed via Fleming College with a layover on William Street south of Kent Street. A suitable layover location would be arranged with the City of Kawartha Lakes. Page 16

21 Figure 2 Page 17

22 OPTION Distance Est. time Schedule Dist. To GO Time to GO Comments Carry Forward (est.) Option 1 From downtown Lindsay to Oshawa GO Station 81km Table PRELIMINARY SCREENING OF OPTIONS 61 min plus 4 stops 86 min 81 km 70 min Direct GO route from Lindsay to Oshawa GO with no transfers. Pick up at park and ride locations in Lindsay, Hwy 7A/35, Pontypool Hwy 35/115, Bowmanville. Yes as Option 1 Option 2 From downtown Lindsay to Hwy 35/115 35km 30 min plus 2 stops 40 min 81 km 70 min plus transfer Integrate with existing Peterborough GO route with a transfer at Clarington P&R. Interim solution requiring separate carrier. Transfer requirement a deterrent. Yes as Option 3 Option 3 From downtown Lindsay to Peterborough Terminal 45 km 56 min 60 min NA 145 min 10% plus transfer Integrate with existing Peterborough GO route with a transfer at Peterborough bus terminal. Longer route taking passengers out of their way. Not viable as connection to GO rail network. Could be viable as additional route to provide service between Lindsay and Peterborough for shopping and school trips. Yes as a secondary route as Option 4 Option 4 From downtown Lindsay to Port Perry 48km 41 min 45 min 76 km 85 min Option 5 From Peterborough to Oshawa via Hwy 7A, Hwy 35, Hwy stop plus transfer 71 min plus 4 stops 100min. 94 km 80 min 94 km Option 6 Extend Port Perry GO service to Lindsay 76 km 86 min 90 min 76 km 86 min Integrate with existing Port Perry GO route with a transfer in Port Perry to Whitby GO. Longer route with separate carrier. Transfer required a deterrent. Estimated ten percent plus additional travel time for Peterborough route. Integrate with short route using separate carrier from Lindsay. Consider as an interim solution. Transfer requirement for Lindsay passengers a deterrant. Misses Cavan park and ride but serves Cavan and Bethany directly. Not favoured by GO Transit due to impact of increased travel time (plus 10 min) on existing passengers. Cheaper alternative to direct connection to Oshawa. 6-7 trips per day. Similar to Option 4. No transfer required. Yes as Option 2 No No Page 18

23 4.3 Service Level/Schedules The City of Kawartha Lakes set a minimum level of weekday service to be provided for a GO service between Lindsay and the Oshawa GO Station as follows: 3 peak direction trips in each rush period 1 off peak direction trip in each rush period 1 midday trip in each direction 1 evening trip in each direction The following service options were considered for evaluation. Option 1 - Lindsay to Oshawa GO Station Two service options were developed for this alternative: 1) Minimum level providing 6 weekday trips per day in each direction per the defined scope of work. Weekend and holiday trips are optional. 2) Greater level of service similar to Peterborough service with 10 weekday trips in each direction and 6 trips per direction on Saturdays, Sundays and Holidays. Option 2 - Extend Port Perry GO service to Lindsay This option builds on the GO service that terminates in Port Perry on weekdays. Based on the current schedule there is no opportunity to extend weekend trips as the service is all routed through Port Perry to Beaverton. 1) Seven (7) existing southbound trips are extended north to Lindsay via Highways 7A and 35. Five (5) existing northbound trips are extended to Lindsay and one new trip is added in the am to provide off peak directional service. 2) Add new weekend service similar to Peterborough service operating from Whitby GO Station via Port Perry to Lindsay. Option 3 - Provide separate service from Lindsay to meet Peterborough service at Clarington North P&R (Highways 35/115) 1) Meet a minimum number of trips (6) of the Peterborough service in each direction. Weekend service optional. 2) Meet all of the Peterborough trips in each direction both daily and on Saturday, Sunday and Holidays. Page 19

24 Option 4 Provide a separate service between downtown Lindsay and Peterborough Bus Terminal stopping at Fleming College and designated stops along Lansdowne Street. 1) Bi-hourly service between 7:00am and 7:00pm. Weekend and holiday service is optional. Connects Lindsay to downtown Peterborough as well as connecting two Fleming campuses. Potential service schedules for the options are included in the Appendix B of this report. 4.4 Potential Passenger Demand As noted earlier, the longer term ridership estimates developed for the Peterborough service in 2006 resulted in figures very close to the ridership demands of November 2011 provided by GO Transit even though travel demand between Peterborough and Toronto has declined. For this reason and the fact that there are demographic similarities between Peterborough and Lindsay, it was considered reasonable to use the Peterborough report methodology as a base the Kawartha Lake estimates. The following Table 4.2 provides a comparison of demographics for the Cities of Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes. As illustrated, Lindsay has a slightly higher average household size, a higher average age and a higher percentage of trips destined to/from Toronto and Durham. Table 4.2 Characteristic City of City of Kawartha Town of Lindsay Peterborough Lakes Average Household Size pers. 2.5 pers. 2.7 pers. Median Age yrs 48.4 yrs yrs. Percentage Car 86% 89% NA Transportation 1 Daily Toronto Trips 2 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% Daily Durham Region Trips 2 1.8% 4.4% 4.7% 1 Source: Statistics Canada Catalogue No XWE, Ottawa, Source: 2006 TTS Survey The estimates outlined later are total daily trips to and from Lindsay. For this study, Lindsay was chosen as the focus for transit trip generation for the City of Kawartha Lakes region since it is assumed that any demonstration of current and future need for transit will depend on the development in this area. The population of Lindsay has increased by 5% from 2006 to 2011 while the wider City of Kawartha Lakes population has decreased. Also the student population within the City is expected to grow over the next few years and, based on the student survey, would contribute significantly to the transit ridership share. A survey of students at Fleming College Frost Campus in Lindsay was performed during the fall of The survey was web based and the student body was notified via . It is unclear if the respondents were representative of an unbiased sample of the student population since, given the Page 20

25 nature of web based surveys, the respondents may be biased towards students with a vested interest in having the service. Therefore a linear expansion rate for the sample relative to the entire student population is not appropriate in this instance. For the purposes of this study it was assumed that the respondents to the survey represent most of the students who would potentially use the transit connection between Lindsay and Oshawa. Therefore the survey results were taken as a complete sample of all students who have some interest in the transit service and the results were not scaled to the total student population at the college. The Frost Campus is one of the major trip generators within the Lindsay area and will likely account for many of the transit trips on a day to day basis. However, from the results of the survey it is clear that most students would prefer to travel at frequencies less than 2 trips per week rather than daily. This could result in large day-to-day variations in demand for transit capacity with Sunday and Friday being the peak days since students would tend to be travelling to and from the campus around the week-end period. Any provision of a transit service connection should take these travel characteristics into account. Ridership estimates were developed for the four route options below: Lindsay Oshawa, a GO Transit connection from Lindsay to Oshawa GO Station with stops at the park and ride facilities along the way. Two levels of service were considered: a basic service with 6 trips per day and a full service similar to the Peterborough route with 10 trips per day. An extension of existing GO Transit Port Perry service providing service from Lindsay to the Whitby GO Station. Extending the existing Port Perry trips was considered a basic service. The demand could reach the direct to Oshawa full service estimate but may require the addition of more trips. A shuttle service connection from Lindsay to the Clarington North Park and Ride lot at Highway 35/115 where users can connect to the existing Peterborough-Oshawa GO bus service. The shuttle service would meet all trips of the Peterborough GO service but, due to the transfer, could attract a lower demand. A separate service between downtown Lindsay to the Peterborough bus terminal in downtown Peterborough. Demand for a bi-hourly service is shown as a range from basic to full service although only the one level of service is considered. The Peterborough service experiences a large increase in ridership on Fridays compared to the other days of the week. It is believed that this increased Friday demand is mainly a result of the significant portion of the student population who stays in Peterborough during the week and travel to their permanent place of residence for week-ends. Page 21

26 A similar trend of increased ridership on Fridays is expected for a transit connection between Lindsay and Oshawa since Lindsay has a significant student population as well. A survey of the students at Fleming College - Frost Campus indicate that a high percentage of transit trips to and from the area are irregular trips. Of the students surveyed 9% indicated they would use a transit service between Lindsay and Oshawa GO Station 5 or more times a week or 3-4 times per week. 43% would use the service between 1-2 trips per week and 38% less than 1 trip per week. Transit trip ridership estimates are summarized in Table 4.3 below with additional details in the attached Table 4.4. These estimates are for average typical week-day. Based on the Peterborough ridership patterns, consideration must be given to the higher average trip ridership on Fridays. In some cases, extra buses may be required to accommodate the higher demand. Table 4.3 Ridership Demand Estimates Lindsay to Oshawa GO Connection Full Service Basic Service Port Perry Extension Upper Limit Lower Limit Shuttle To Clarington North Park and Ride Upper Limit Lower Limit Lindsay to Peterborough Connection Upper Limit Lower Limit It is estimated that ridership on a Lindsay to Oshawa GO route would range from 146 to 185 passenger during the early years of operation. This estimate is also considered reasonable for the extension of service from Port Perry given the limited options available to Lindsay residents and students. The shuttle service demand is expected to be somewhat less given the introduction of a transfer at the Clarington North P&R lot. However, similar to the Port Perry extension, the lack of available options would still make the shuttle service an attractive travel alternative. On weekends, the Peterborough GO demand is 93% of that experienced on weekdays. For all options of the Lindsay service, 75% of the weekday demand is considered a more conservative estimate and is used in the revenue calculations. The daily demand for service on a Lindsay to Peterborough service is expected to range from 70 to100 passengers per day based on resident and student travel desires. A portion of this demand is based on Page 22

27 attracting half of the current bus plus GO Rail ridership from the 2006 TTS data. If these numbers failed to materialize the over range could be lower. However, since no transit service currently exists in this corridor, latent demand could be higher particularly for students travelling between the campus locations. As noted earlier, the student survey numbers have not been factored up to the entire student body population. 4.5 GO Transit Comments on Ridership Estimate GO Transit reviewed the feasibility report and provided some comments on the ridership projections indicating that they believed certain of the numbers to be somewhat high. A further review of the background information resulted in a slight reduction in the forecast demand for the student travel. However, since the regular demand forecast was based on the previous Peterborough feasibility study methodology that had provided a forecast very close to the current demand, it was decided to leave those figures unchanged. It is believed that the forecast range of ridership covers the possibility of not reaching the projected levels. Page 23

28 Table Ridership Estimate Details Full Service Base Demand Direct Connection to Oshawa GO Station Port Perry Extension Shuttle Connection to Clarington Park and Ride Lindsay to Peterborough Connection % Estimated to Switch to GO Bus Service * % Estimated to Switch to GO Bus Service ** % Estimated to Switch to GO Bus Service *** % Estimated to Switch to GO Bus Service Daily Trips Daily Peak Period Work Trips To/From Downtown Toronto GO Rail To Downtown Transit+GO Rail To Downtown Bus Other Lindsay to South Durham Trips Lindsay to Peterborough Trips Total Student transit trips from Frost College N/A Total Total Total Total Basic Service Base Demand Direct Connection to Oshawa GO Station Port Perry Extension Shuttle Connection to Clarington Park and Ride Lindsay to Peterborough Connection % Estimated to Switch to GO Bus Service * % Estimated to Switch to GO Bus Service ** % Estimated to Switch to GO Bus Service *** % Estimated to Switch to GO Bus Service Daily Trips Daily Peak Period Work Trips To/From Downtown Toronto GO Rail To Downtown Transit+GO Rail To Downtown Bus Other Lindsay to South Durham Trips Lindsay to Peterborough Trips Total Student transit trips from Frost College N/A Total Total Total Total N/A - not available Source: 2006 TTS Survey Population growth for Town of Lindsay 2006 to 2011 is around 5 percent, hence trips assumed to increased by this much as well over % compounded year over year, since population for Lindsay in 2011 census is 20,300 and projected to grow to 30,000 by 2031 Based on student survey with no expansion factor Source: GO Transit Service Extension to Peterborough Feasibility Study, September 2006 * The Port Perry Extension is assumed to provide similar travel time and convenience to connect to the Lakeshore trains when compared to the Lindsay - Oshawa connection and as a result the estimated ridership is assumed to the similar. ** For shuttle connection to GO Bus Line - assumed 10 minute increase in trip time over direct connection to Oshawa GO Station to dismbark, wait, embark on connecting line, i.e. about 15% increase in travel time and decrease in utility of service. Assume decrease of similar proportion in ridership switch *** For connection to GO Bus Line at Peterborough - assumed 40 minute increase in trip time over direct connection to Oshawa GO Station involves joining transit in Lindsay, travel to Peterborough, dismbark, wait, embark on connecting line, i.e. about 45% increase in travel time. This is a significant decrease in the utility and convenience of the service for travellers going southwest to Durham and Toronto, it is unlikely that everyday travellers will want to go east and connect to go southwesterly. The assumption is that there will be some switch of current Lindsay to/from Peterborough trips to transit and some of the Frost Campus Students would also make use of this connection. Page 24

29 5. Option Discussion The following section discusses the various route and service options and forecast performance. Table 5.1 provides a summary of estimated costs and revenues for the options. Option 1 - Lindsay to Oshawa GO Station This option provides a service to Oshawa GO Station comparable to the current GO service to Peterborough. The service would operate from the existing Lindsay Transit terminal point in the downtown area, serve the park and ride facilities on Highway 35 south of Highway 7, Highway 7A, Clarington North at Highway 35/115 and Newcastle at Highway 2 on its way to the Oshawa GO Station. From a passenger point of view, this service would be the most attractive in that it provides a direct and fast service to the Lakeshore GO service as well as providing good access to lower Durham and its regional transit services. The level of service could be tailored to the demand. However, the more frequent the service, the more attractive to potential passengers. Weekend service is a definite plus given the student demands and experience with the Peterborough route. Route performance would range between 38% and 50% Rev/Cost ratio with weekend service included. Option 2 - Extend Port Perry GO service to Lindsay This option provides a more cost effective alternative from a service point of view by extending the existing service from Port Perry. (unless additional full trips were added from Whitby GO Station) However, while more cost effective, it would not be as attractive to potential passengers. The service would be limited to the existing trips terminating at Port Perry and the travel time to the Lakeshore GO rail service would be longer. The route would serve the Lindsay P&R lot but none of the others along Highway 35 unless a new facility was constructed at Highway 7A/35. As mentioned, the level of service would be fixed based on the current Port Perry trips. Currently, it would not be possible to provide weekend service unless additional trips were added. For weekday service only, and assuming a range of ridership similar to the Oshawa service, route performance would range between 60% and 75% Rev/Cost since the cost is based on the extension of service beyond Port Perry only. Due to the longer trip time involved with this service, it is likely to attract the lower limit of forecast passenger demand. If weekend service was added and ridership demand was assumed to be 75% of total route ridership, overall performance would range between 58% and 73% Rev/Cost. Page 25

30 Option 3 - Provide separate service from Lindsay to meet Peterborough service at Clarington North l P&R (Highways 35/115) This option provides a shuttle service between downtown Lindsay and the Clarington North P&R facility, at Highway 35/115, where it would meet the existing service trips of the Peterborough GO bus route. Selection of this option is viewed as a precursor to implementation of a GO service between Lindsay and Oshawa GO Station. It would provide a service that is not available today and it would allow an evaluation of service demand prior to the implementation of a full service by GO Transit. However, the introduction of a transfer mid route, no matter how convenient, is a drawback to attracting full passenger potential. This service would be subcontracted to a private transportation company at a lower cost than GO Transit services. Based on the estimated passenger demand, performance would range between 51% and 65% Rev/Cost including the weekend service. Cost to the City would range from $110,000 to $157,000 annually depending on the passenger demands. Option 4 Provide a separate service between downtown Lindsay and Peterborough Bus Terminal stopping at Fleming College and designated stops along Lansdowne Street. This service is an additional option above and beyond those considered to connect the City of Kawartha Lakes to the Lakeshore GO Rail line. It would serve latent demand for travel between Lindsay and Peterborough, particularly for student travel generated by Fleming College and Trent University. This service would be subcontracted to a private transportation company. Based on the estimated passenger demand, performance would range between 43% and 57% Rev/Cost, including the weekend service. Cost to the City would range from $82,000 to $110,000 annually depending on the passenger demands. There is potential to share theses costs with the City of Peterborough and/or Fleming College. However, each municipality has policies regarding the operation of services outside the municipal boundaries that would need to be addressed. Page 26

31 Table 5.1 Route Performance Option Rev. Hrs. Cost/Hr. Ann Cost. Pass. /Day Avg Fare Ann. Rev. Rev/Cost Option 1 - Oshawa Weekdays Full $1.28M 185 $10.82 $502, % with weekends 75% of pass. $1.76M 140 $10.11 $672, % Weekdays Basic $845, $10.82 $393, % with weekends 75% of pass. $1.07M 110 $10.11 $534, % Option 2 - Port Perry Whitby Weekdays Upper Limit $697, $502, % with weekends 75% of pass. $919, $672, % Weekdays Lower Limit $697, $393, % with weekends 75% of pass. $919, $534, % Option 3 -Shuttle 35/115 Weekdays Upper Limit $247, $3.65 $155, % with weekends 75% of pass. $325, $3.40 $214, % Weekdays Lower Limit $247, $3.65 $123, % with weekends 75% of pass. $325, $3.40 $168, % Option 4 - Lindsay/Peter. Weekdays Upper Limit $135, $3.65 $82, % with weekends 75% of pass. $191, $3.40 $109, % Weekdays Lower Limit $135, $3.65 $59, % with weekends 75% of pass. $191, $3.40 $81, % NOTE: 1. Average fares based on current Peterborough route bus fares to Oshawa GO Station and an assumption on passenger fare category percentages. 2. Option 1 and 2 costs provided by GO Transit. 3. Option 3 and 4 cost/hr. provided by City of Kawartha Lakes assuming a private carrier. 4. Cost estimates based on 251 weekdays and 104 Sat., Sun., and Hol. 5. Weekend demand for all options assumes 75% of weekday demand. 6. Ridership numbers rounded to closest 5 passengers. Page 27