EFFEKTKONSEKVENSER AV EN BETYDLIGT LÄGRE ANDEL KÄRNKRAFT. Arild Tanem, VP Nordisk Markedsanalyse Statkraft Energi AS Stockholm, 7.

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1 EFFEKTKONSEKVENSER AV EN BETYDLIGT LÄGRE ANDEL KÄRNKRAFT Arild Tanem, VP Nordisk Markedsanalyse Statkraft Energi AS Stockholm, 7. december 2015

2 Increased Nordic power surplus towards 2030 TWh/year 60 Nordic power surplus Main drivers - Norwegian / Swedish elcert scheme - Finnish nuclear project(s) - Flat demand in all Nordic countries Swedish nuclear power is the largest uncertainty

3 Statkraft analysis Capacity consequences with less Swedish nuclear Scope Nordic capacity challenges as a consequence of less Swedish nuclear Possible mitigating actions Framework Based on the Statkraft long term market analysis for years of correlated European weather data on 3 hours granularity Transmission capacity represented as limitations between price areas Possible capacity challenges 3

4 Capacity challenges with different degrees of nuclear phase-out by 2030 Degrees of nuclear phase-out Main take-away Reactors O3 F3 F2 F1 R4 R3 O3 F3 F2 F1 O3 O3 F3 LOLE* (h/year) < out of the 10 existing nuclear reactors can be phased out before significant capacity challenges arise 4 *LOLE = Loss of Load Expectancy (due to capacity inadequacy). England and France have designed their capacity mechanism to reach 3h Loss of Load expectancy per year

5 Missing Power (MW) In case of full phase-out of Swedish nuclear by 2030 Capacity challenges in a few hours 6300 Capacity inadequacy Duration cure, Capacity Inadequacy 0h LOLE 1h LOLE h LOLE h LOLE Loss of Load Expectancy (h/year) 5

6 Several measures can strengthen capacity in southern Sweden Pre-requisites An efficient market providing reasonable price signals to consumers and producers Maintain capacity and flexibility of hydropower New CHP Peak load reduction Measures with limited potential New on-shore wind New off-shore wind Measures with clear impact Transmission reinforcement New gas capacity New solar New bio capacity 6 Elaborated and analysed in next sections

7 Mitigating action Peak load reduction through demand flexibility Reducing peak load by demand response is mitigating capacity challenges. Rapid technology development plays an important role. Duration curve of demand - Sweden MW Price sensitive demand 2030 LOLE (h/year) Base case: Full nuclear phase-out 20 6 % demand response 12 12% demand response % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Weather year LOLE = Loss of Load Expectancy (due to capacity inadequacy)

8 SE3 <-> SE2 Mitigating action Transmission reinforcement Increased transmission would enable Swedish and/or Norwegian hydropower to mitigate capacity challenges New transmission lines 2030 (MW) Base case: Full nuclear phase-out LOLE (h/year) 20 SE3 to SE2: 1400 SE3 to NO1: 1400 SE3 to SE2: 1400 NO1: LOLE = Loss of Load Expectancy (due to capacity inadequacy)

9 M /year In case of full phase-out of Swedish nuclear by 2030 Choose the most cost efficient solution Transmission reinforcement Västra grenen, SE3-NO1, 1400 MW Capex Opex Value* Total cost Source of capex/opex: SvK/KTH Value(*): Defined as increased producer surplus, consumer surplus and TSO congestion revenues with regards to a base-case 9

10 M /year M /year In case of full phase-out of Swedish nuclear by 2030 Choose the most cost efficient solution Transmission reinforcement Västra grenen, SE3-NO1, 1400 MW New gas capacity Peak gas plants, 1400 MW Capex Opex Value* Total cost Capex Opex Value* Total cost Source of capex/opex: SvK/KTH Source of capex/opex: Elforsk Value(*): Defined as increased producer surplus, consumer surplus and TSO congestion revenues with regards to a base-case 10

11 M /year M /year M /year In case of full phase-out of Swedish nuclear by 2030 Choose the most cost efficient solution Transmission reinforcement New gas capacity New bio capacity Västra grenen, SE3-NO1, 1400 MW Peak gas plants, 1400 MW Condensing bio power plant, 1400 MW Capex Opex Value* Total cost Capex Opex Value* Total cost Capex Opex Value* Total cost Source of capex/opex: SvK/KTH Source of capex/opex: Elforsk Source of capex/opex: Elforsk Value(*): Defined as increased producer surplus, consumer surplus and TSO congestion revenues with regards to a base-case Peak load reduction Could not be measured according to same criteria 11

12 Nordic power market works well with significantly less Swedish nuclear in out of the 10 existing nuclear reactors can be phased out before significant capacity challenges arise Some measures needed if full nuclear phase-out the most cost efficient are: - Increased transmission capacity - Market driven demand response No need to introduce new measures now - Have trust in the market - Do not prolong the elcert scheme - Strive for an efficient EU-ETS market Foto: Svenska Kraftnät 12

13 TACK TACK