Why Invest in International Now?

Transcription

1 July 2015

2 As of the end of June 2015 over 62% of the weight of the world stock market capitalization consisted of non-u.s. companies. The largest companies in many industries are in fact internationally based rather than U.S. based. For example, of the 15 largest banks in the world, 10 are outside the U.S. Other industries dominated by non-u.s. firms include Metals and Mining (12 of top 15), Airlines (11 of top 15), Automobiles (11 of top 15), Diversified Telecommunication Services (11 of top 15) and Pharmaceuticals (7 of top 15). World Stock Market Capitalization U.S. 44% Emerging 10% Developed 46% Emerging 23% U.S. 37% Developed 40% December 2004 June 2015 Source: Renaissance Research, FactSet, MSCI 1

3 The growth potential in many so-called emerging markets today is a generational opportunity to seek to take advantage of unprecedented demographic and political change. As of 2008, emerging economies have just recently accounted for more than 50% of world GDP and this trend presents attractive growth potential for an investor in international stocks. Developed vs. Emerging GDP Percent of World, Based on Purchasing Power Parity 80% 70% Developed Economies Forecasted 60% 50% Securities of, or other investments in, foreign issuers involve additional risks (such as risks arising from less frequent trading, changes in political or social conditions, and less publicly available information about non- U.S. issuers) that differ from those associated with investing in securities of U.S. issuers and may result in greater price volatility. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - June 2015, FactSet 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Emerging Economies

4 While the U.S. stock market has been the strongest performer over the past 5 years, developed and emerging market indices have been relative underperformers, which may present an attractive entry point for investors looking to take advantage of the larger opportunity set and greater growth opportunities in international markets. U.S. Indices vs. Global Markets 300 S&P 500 Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index MSCI EAFE Index Source: FactSet, MSCI, S&P Past performance is no guarantee of future results

5 While the U.S. stock market trades at among the highest P/E ratios in the world today, companies in the developed and emerging markets trade on average at significantly lower multiples of earnings. Investor returns depend largely on the initial valuation when an investment is made, and today s valuation levels in international securities suggest attractive return potential going forward. Market Valuations Around the World Price-to-Earnings Ratio Trailing One Year Earnings x 20.9x x Source: FactSet, MSCI 0 MSCI USA Index MSCI EAFE Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index 4

6 Disclosures Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any sectors, industries, or securities discussed should not be perceived as investment recommendations. The views expressed represent the opinions of AMG Funds and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions, and investors should evaluate their ability to invest for a long term, especially during periods of downturns in the market. The MSCI USA Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure large- and mid-cap U.S. equity market performance. The MSCI USA Index is member of the MSCI Global Equity Indices and represents the U.S. equity portion of the global benchmark MSCI ACWI Index. The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 21 emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey. The S&P 500 Index is capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The S&P 500 Index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. All MSCI data is provided as is. The products described herein are not sponsored or endorsed and have not been reviewed or passed on by MSCI. In no event shall MSCI, its affiliates, or any MSCI data provider have any liability of any kind in connection with the MSCI data or the products described herein. Copying or redistributing the MSCI data is strictly prohibited. The Indices are unmanaged, not available for investment and do not incur expenses. Funds are distributed by AMG Distributors, Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC. Each of us at AMG Funds appreciates the continued opportunity to assist you with your investing needs. If you have any questions, please call CH