The Future of Photovoltaics

Transcription

1 The Future of Photovoltaics Dick Swanson President Emeritus Photons, Electrons, Bands: A Symposium on the Diversity of Opto-Electronics, UC Berkeley, January 27,2012 Really in Honor of Eli Yablonovitch

2 The Future of Photovoltaics Answer: Really High Efficiency Solar Cells Photons, Electrons, Bands: A Symposium on the Diversity of Opto-Electronics, UC Berkeley, January 27,2012 Really in Honor of Eli Yablonovitch

3 Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities litigation Reform Act of Forward-looking statements are statements that do not represent historical facts and may be based on underlying assumptions. SunPower uses words and phrases such as may, will, should, could, would, expect, plan, anticipate, believe, estimate, predict, potential, continue, guided and similar words and phrases to identify forward-looking statements in this presentation, including forward-looking statements regarding: (a) plans and expectations regarding future financial results, operating results, liquidity, cash flows, capital expenditure and business strategies, (b) management s plans and objectives for future operations, (c) the company s projected costs, drivers of cost reduction and cost reduction roadmap, (d) forecasted demand growth in the solar industry, and projected bookings and pipelines, (e) project construction, completion, ability to obtain financing, sale and revenue recognition timing, (f) growth in dealer partners, (g) product development, advantages of new products, and competitive positioning, (h) manufacturing ramp plan, scalability and expected savings, (i) future solar and traditional electricity rates and cost savings of SunPower systems, (j) trends and growth in the solar industry, and (k) the success and benefits of our joint ventures, acquisitions and partnerships. Such forward-looking statements are based on information available to SunPower as of the date of this presentation and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, some beyond SunPower s control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these forward-looking statements, including risks and uncertainties such as (i) ability to achieve the expected benefits from our relationship with Total; (ii) the impact of regulatory changes and the continuation of governmental and related economic incentives promoting the use of solar power, and the impact of such changes on revenues, financial results, and any potential impairments to intangible assets, project assets, and goodwill; (iii) increasing competition in the industry and lower average selling prices, and any revaluation of inventory as a result of decreasing ASP or reduced demand; (iv) ability to obtain and maintain an adequate supply of raw materials, components, and solar panels, as well as the price it pays for such items; (v) general business and economic conditions, including seasonality of the solar industry and growth trends in the solar industry; (vi) ability to revise its portfolio allocation geographically and across downstream channels to respond to regulatory changes; (vii) ability to increase or sustain its growth rate; (viii) construction difficulties or potential delays, including obtaining land use rights, permits, license, other governmental approvals, and transmission access and upgrades, and any litigation relating thereto; (ix) ability to meet all conditions for obtaining the DOE loan guarantee and any litigation relating to the CVSR project; (x) the significant investment required to construct power plants and ability to sell or otherwise monetize power plants; (xi) fluctuations in operating results and its unpredictability, especially revenues from the UPP segment or in response to regulatory changes; (xii) the availability of financing arrangements for projects and customers; (xiii) potential difficulties associated with operating the joint venture with AUO and achieving the anticipated synergies and manufacturing benefits; (xiv) ability to remain competitive in its product offering, obtain premium pricing while continuing to reduce costs and achieve lower targeted cost per watt; (xv) liquidity, substantial indebtedness, and its ability to obtain additional financing; (xvi) manufacturing difficulties that could arise; (xvii) the success of research and development efforts and the acceptance of new products and services; (xviii) ability to protect its intellectual property; (xix) exposure to foreign exchange, credit and interest rate risk; (xx) possible impairment of goodwill; (xxi) possible consolidation of the joint venture AUO SunPower; and (xxii) other risks described in SunPower s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended January 2, 2011, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended July 3, 2011 and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as representing SunPower s views as of any subsequent date, and SunPower is under no obligation to, and expressly disclaims any responsibility to, update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 3

4 History of Best Laboratory Silicon Cells How High Can We Go?

5 First Attempts at Limit Efficiencies

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7 History of Device Model Limit Cell Calculations All values corrected to AM1.5

8 History of Thermodynamic Limit Calculations

9 Cell Efficiency (%) SunPower cell efficiency history 25% Laboratory Prototyping Results Gen % 24% Production median 23.4% 23% Gen % 22.4% 22% 21% 20% Gen % 20.6%

10 Computing the value of efficiency Suppose BOS costs $50/m 2 BOS efficiency is 80% Module 1 efficiency is 14% Module 2 efficiency is 19% Then the difference in module value is $0.12/W It turns out this is wrong! Sun Pow er Corp

11 /W Module Spot Price Trends, Oct Jul SunPower EU avg. (std. efficiency) JPN avg. (std. efficiency) China avg. (std. efficiency) First Solar (CdTe) Oct-2008 Jan-2009 Apr-2009 Jul-2009 Oct-2009 Jan-2010 Apr-2010 Jul-2010 Source: pvxchange, 2010; Figures represent monthly average sale prices on Germany s pvxchange marketplace Note: EU avg. = SolarWorld, Solon, ALEO; JPN avg. = Sharp, Mitsubishi, Kyocera; China avg. = Yingli, Trina, Canadian 2011 SunPower Solar Corporation 2010 SunPower Corporation 11

12 /W Module Spot Price Trends, Oct Jul SunPower EU avg. (std. efficiency) JPN avg. (std. efficiency) China avg. (std. efficiency) First Solar (CdTe) /W 1 /W Oct-2008 Jan-2009 Apr-2009 Jul-2009 Oct-2009 Jan-2010 Apr-2010 Jul-2010 Source: pvxchange, 2010; Figures represent monthly average sale prices on Germany s pvxchange marketplace Note: EU avg. = SolarWorld, Solon, ALEO; JPN avg. = Sharp, Mitsubishi, Kyocera; China avg. = Yingli, Trina, Canadian 2011 SunPower Solar Corporation 2010 SunPower Corporation 12

13 What did we miss? Answer: The impact of area constraints Most projects are area constrained High efficiency means fixed project costs are amortized over more power Site mobilization Permitting Cost of making the sale Electrical hook-up Any other cost that scales sublinearly to area High efficiency makes tracking cost effective Increases energy delivery 25% to 30% Higher capacity factor reduces inverter and system O&M More important in smaller systems More important in larger systems 2010 SunPower Corporation 13

14 Plus Higher energy yield 4BO.10.6, Tuesday 14;45, High-Confidence Prediction of Energy Production from High-Efficiency PV Modules and Systems, D. Rose, O. Koehler, and B Bourne Higher quality, less field failures, and lower field degradation 4EP.1.4, Friday 9:15, Qualification, Manufacturing, and Reliability Testing Methodologies for Deploying High-Reliability Solar Modules, D. DeGraaff, A. Terao & D. Rose Aesthetics Shipping savings (module & BOS) 2010 SunPower Corporation 14

15 PV HAS ARRIVED!

16 Global Market Size and Pricing $4.00 M W P $ $3.39 $3.25 $3.03 $2.90 $ $2.65 $2.65 $2.18 $ $ $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 A S P $ / W p MWp Average Selling Prices Source: Navigant 16

17 Leading-edge C-Si Module Manufacturing Costs are Plummeting Fast $/W $3.50 $3.00 $0.85 $2.50 $2.00 Non Silicon Costs Silicon Costs $1.50 $1.00 $2.32 $0.88 $0.79 $0.50 $0.86 $0.46 $ Sources: Company reports; 17

18 PV Power Plants Are Cost Competitive Today 2012 LCOE by Resource $/MWh: 2010 USD Renewables Solar PV $73 ground 192 roof Solar Thermal $ Wind $38-79 $164 off-shore Gas Peaking Conventional $ Gas CC $69-97 Nuclear $ Coal Prices include federal incentives Source: Lazard Capital Markets 6/2011 $ Levelized Cost ($/MWh) 18

19 4.2 GW PV in GW in 2010 European 2009 New Installed and Retired Capacity (MW) Source: EWEA, February

20 German Feed-in Tariff will be less than retail in 2012! Retail Rate Source: Deutsche Bank 20

21 Schleicher-Tappeser (Jan 2011) 21

22 OLD ROADMAPS

23 Historical PV Learning Curve (from 2002) 23

24 Comparison to Actual 24

25 NEW ROADMAPS

26 2010 to 2015 Will Be Lean 26

27 PV Module Prices are Rapidly Declining 27

28 Schleicher-Tappeser (Jan 2011) 28

29 MANUFACTURING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE

30 Technology Development central to Cost Roadmap $3.50 $0.6/W c-si Module is conceivable $3.00 $ % cell performance practical $2.50 $2.38 Optimized process sequence $2.00 $1.97 $1.78 Back-contact process is immature (< 8 yrs old) $1.50 New process-steps and materials $1.00 $0.50 $1.00 $0.60? Reduced Silicon Usage Ultra-thin Wafers (<100um), reduced Kerf or Kerfless $- No end in sight for learning curve for c-si back contact solar cells 30

31 DOE Sunshot Goal: Make PV the lowest cost electric energy option 31

32 Value of 24% Efficiency plus Tracking Now 2017 Source: DOE $1/W Whitepaper 32

33 THANK YOU