Financial Markets Impact on Energy prices Davide Tabarelli Università Tor Vergata 4 dicembre 2008
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1 Confindustria - XX gennaio Financial Markets Impact on Energy prices Davide Tabarelli Università Tor Vergata 4 dicembre 2008
2 2 Agenda Extraordinary instability on energy markets High volatility, high uncertainty, high inefficiency Power exchanges with own problems The role of finance Was it a bubble? Conclusions
3 Novembre Any market with this instability has efficiency problems Elaborazioni NE - Nomisma Energia su Platts, Oilgram Price Report
4 Novembre Awe foresee lower prices 160 Brent Dated Prices, Forecasts and Futures $/bbl Brent Dated NE Forecasts, base case ICE Brent Futures Elaborazioni e Stime NE - Nomisma Energia su dati Platts, ICE
5 Large range of different views for 2009 in mid November Previsioni dei prezzi del Brent per il 2009 effettatue a metà novembre 2008 DnB NOR Markets Barclays First Energy Capital Merrill Lynch Commodities Raymond James Morgan Stanley Landesbank Petromatrix Goldman Sachs Broker Credit UniCredit - MIB Fortis Scotia Capital BNP Paribas ING Societé Générale Media HSH Nordbank Bernstein Research JP Morgan Daiwa Raiffeisen Zentralbank EIU Citigroup EIA UBS Deutsche Bank Cheuvreux Credit Suisse Standard Chartered Man Financial RBS CGES Nomisma Energia Fonte: Reuters, novembre 2008 Novembre
6 Confindustria - XX gennaio Constantly change of views, as always Futures Prices - Nymex $/bbl Front Month Price Curve Futures: metà gen e lug Curva Futures, 25 novembre 2008
7 Ottobre Unprecedented instability for all energy markets Fossil fuel prices at parity of calorific value (current $ per barrel of oil equivalent) oil gas coal Source: Platts, AEEG, NE- Nomisma Energia
8 /MWh $/bbl In Italy immediate impact of power prices Wholesale electricity prices, power exchange prices and Brent prices Wholesale price (PGn) left scale /MWh IPEX prices /MWh Left scale Brent prices $/bbl right scale
9 Novembre 2008 ott-01 apr-02 ott-02 apr-03 ott-03 apr-04 ott-04 apr-05 ott-05 apr-06 ott-06 apr-07 ott-07 apr-08 ott-08 apr-09 Instability of oil prices affected also power exchanges Wholesale power prices in Europe /MWh 160 UK 140 Germania Francia 120 Italia ' Elaborazioni NE - Nomisma Energia su dati Platts e GME
10 Confindustria - XX gennaio Some history : oligopoly in in the oil industry of low prices (golden age) 1974: Nixon imposes energy price controls 1978: Carter frees heating gasoil and gas prices in US 1978: Nymex first energy contract 1980: Reagan frees all energy prices, Thatcher in UK 1983: Nymex launces WTI futures
11 Confindustria - XX gennaio Some history : Nymex launches natural gas futures; Enron begins its success February 1999: crude oil prices at 11 $/bbl 2000: California power exchange failure 2001: November bankruptcy of Enron 2008: September; bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers
12 Liquidity of power exchanges very theoretical : Prices for final consumers are distant Demand in 2008 and its negotiations TWh 350,0 Total demand 327 TWh 300,0 Actual liquidity of IPEX Bilaterali nazionali 250,0 200,0 Altri operatori (Ipex con copertura) Bilaterali nazionali AU 150,0 100,0 Altri operatori (Ipex) Salvaguardia (Ipex) Offerte integrative (Ipex bilanciamento) Acquirente Unico (Ipex con copertura) 50,0 0,0 Acquirente Unico (Ipex) 2008
13 Novembre Open Interest: contracts that are kept open First sign of deleveraging migliaia Open Interest e Prezzi Spot del WTI Open Interest (scala sx) Prezzi WTI (scala dx) $/bbl Fonte: Elaborazioni NE-Nomisma Energia su dati CFTC e Platts
14 Settembre Volumi scambiati sulle borse a termine nel mondo milioni/anno Commodity (scala sinistra) Financial (scala destra) Fonte: Bank for International Settlements; per il 2008 stime NE Nomisma Energia Elaborazioni NE su dati Nymex
15 15 Conclusions Problem of efficiency: is it market failure? All fossil fuels affected Problems of liquidity spreading on futures exchanges All commodities affected The problem is the unregulated market No alternative to futures exchange
16 Davide Tabarelli NE Nomisma Energia Via Galliera, Bologna (Italy) Tel Fax Confindustria - XX gennaio
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