Introduction to the Australian Electricity Market. July 2015

Transcription

1 Introduction to the Australian Electricity Market July 2015

2 Disclaimer: This is for general information purposes only, does not constitute financial product advice and is provided on a non-reliance basis. By accepting and retaining this information, the recipient represents that the recipient is a wholesale client. Futures and options trading involve the potential for both profits and losses and only licensed persons can advise on this risk. You should obtain independent professional advice in assessing the effect of the information on your circumstances and before making any financial decisions. ASX Energy Limited does not give any warranty or representation as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, ASX Energy and its related bodies corporate and their employees, officers and contractors shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence or otherwise) from or in connection with any information provided or omitted or from any one acting or refraining to act in reliance on this information. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. A recipient of the information should make their own independent assessment of the matters in this information, after making such investigations as they deem necessary. A recipient must rely on their own representatives and advisers in relation to this information. ASX Energy Limited, ABN , is a New Zealand registered company and holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (no ). ASX Energy Limited is a related entity of ASX Limited. Copyright 2015 ASX Operations Pty Limited ABN All rights reserved 2015.

3 Australian Electricity Futures Market Cash Settled and Centrally Cleared Commodity Options liquidity 73% of power consumption ASX Australian Electricity FY % of power consumption 446 TWh p.a. Over $16 billion face value p.a. Source: ASX 3

4 The Electricity Market Pool Price ASX futures for each region are cash settled against the electricity Pool Price average The Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) is an interconnected grid including NSW, VIC, QLD, SA and TAS. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is the pool market operator (ISO). AEMO publishes a half-hourly electricity pool price for each region. All hedging by energy companies must be done via cash settled derivatives (such as futures). No electricity derivatives involve physical delivery of energy. In each region: Retailers purchase power from AEMO at the common pool clearing price. Generators sell power to AEMO at the common pool clearing price. The AEMO spot pool price varies from -$1,000/MWh to +$13,500/MWh. SA QLD NSW VIC TAS 4

5 The Physical Flow of Electricity Bought and Sold from the Pool Market Physical Power Supply The pool price is calculated by AEMO and changes every half hour (ranges between -$1,000 to +$13,500/MWh). Retailer AEMO $ Spot Power $ Market Operator Generators All retailers pay the variable pool price to AEMO. All generators receive the variable pool price from AEMO. $ Electricity Consumer Consumers typically pay their retailer a fixed rate (including retailer s profit margin), in return for power supply. 5

6 Fuel Stack and Fuel Output in the NEM Capacity by Fuel Output by Fuel Black coal 39.1% Brown coal 14.3% Gas 20.8% Hydro 16.4% Wind 6.3% Liquid 1.6% Other 1.5% Black coal 50.2% Brown coal 23.4% Gas 12.3% Hydro 9.2% Wind 4.4% Liquid 0.0% Other 0.3% Source: Australian Energy Regulator,

7 Free Real Time Spot Market Information 2-day ahead price and demand forecast charts: 7-day forecast of the Scheduled Reserve : Medium term outlook forecast charts (up to 2 years): AEMO free real time low reserve alerts: Free online government weather service: Free Daily Spot/Physical Market Report Summary: 7

8 ALPHA from Australian power prices Fundamental Drivers of electricity prices Weather Temperature, Wind, Lightning, Rainfall, Flooding, Drought, Bushfire Australian Electricity Prices Generation & Transmission outages Fuel Costs Coal, Natural Gas/LNG, C02 8

9 ASX Energy Product Suite 1. Australian Electricity Products: Base Load Quarter Futures Peak Load Quarter Futures Base Load Quarter $300 Cap Futures Base Load Calendar Year Strip Options Base Load Financial Year Strip Options Base Load Month Futures Base Load Quarter Average Rate Options 2. Australian Natural Gas: Wallumbilla Natural Gas Futures Victorian Natural Gas Futures 3. New Zealand Electricity Futures and Options 4. New Zealand Natural Gas Futures 5. Australian Renewable Energy Certificates (RECS) 9

10 The Australian Electricity Futures Market UNDERLYING COMMODITY Contract Quarters Cash Settlement Price Trading Hours Base Load Contract Unit Peak Load Contract Unit ELECTRICAL ENERGY BOUGHT AND SOLD IN THE NSW, VIC, SA AND QLD WHOLESALE POOL MARKETS CONDUCTED BY AEMO March (H), June (M), September (U) and December (Z) Individual month contracts also available The arithmetic average of the NEM final base load half hour spot prices during the Contract Quarter, rounded to two decimal places. A Provisional Cash Settlement Price will be declared on the first Business Day after expiry of the Contract and shall be later confirmed on the third Business Day after expiry. 10:00am 4:00pm, Sydney, Australia time (AEST) Block Trade Agreement permissible at any time other than the pre-open period (9:50am 10:00am on exchange business days) 1 Megawatt of electrical energy per hour based on a base load profile. Where the base load profile is defined as the NEM base load period from 00:00 hours Monday to 24:00 hours Sunday (AEST) over the duration of the Contract Quarter. The size (in Megawatt hours) of each Contract Quarter will vary depending on the number of days and base load hours within the quarter. 1 Megawatt of electrical energy per hour based on a peak load profile. Where the Peak Load profile is defined as the NEM Peak Load from 07:00 hours to 22:00 hours (AEST) Monday to Friday (excluding public holidays, as determined and published by ASX 24) over the duration of the Contract Quarter. 10

11 The Financial Electricity Market The Basics Australian ASX Electricity Future and Options Codes FUTURES OPTIONS Base Monthly EN = NSW Base Load EV = VIC Base Load EQ = QLD Base Load ES = SA Base Load Base Quarterly BN = NSW Base Load BV = VIC Base Load BQ = QLD Base Load BS = SA Base Load Peak Quarterly PN = NSW Peak Load PV = VIC Peak Load PQ = QLD Peak Load PS = SA Peak Load Base Quarterly $300 Cap GN = NSW Base Load $300 Cap GV = VIC Base Load $300 Cap GQ = QLD Base Load $300 Cap GS = SA Base Load $300 Cap Base Calendar/Financial Year Strip HN = NSW Base Load HV = VIC Base Load HQ = QLD Base Load HS = SA Base Load Peak Calendar/Financial Year Strip DN = NSW Peak Load DV = VIC Peak Load DQ = QLD Peak Load DS = SA Peak Load Base Calendar/Financial Year $300 Cap Strip RN = NSW Base Load $300 Cap Strip RV = VIC Base Load $300 Cap Strip RQ = QLD Base Load $300 Cap Strip RS = SA Base Load $300 Cap Strip Base Quarterly Average Rate Options (European, Cash settled) BN = NSW Base Load BV = VIC Base Load BQ = QLD Base Load BS = SA Base Load Base Calendar/Financial Strip Options (American, Exercise into Base Futures) HN = NSW Base Load HV = VIC Base Load HQ = QLD Base Load HS = SA Base Load 11

12 Australia Power Price Drivers = Alpha 10 Years of Futures Price History (1 year rolling) NSW Base Cal Settlement Prices for 3 Jan 2006 to 30 Jun $/MWh Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Source: ASX 12

13 Electricity Liquidity: ASX Futures vs. Over the Counter Electricity Derivatives Traded Volume OTC ASX 24 centrally cleared Underlying Electricity Consumption Million MWh OTC ASX 24 centrally cleared Underlying Electricity Consumption Sources: AFMA; ASX

14 ASX Liquidity by Region: Compared to pool market, FY15 Exchange Traded Volume as a % of Underlying Physical Demand (FY15) Traded MWh 180,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000, Percentage (%) Underlying NEM System Demand (LHS) Exchange Traded Futures & Options Volume (LHS) Exchange traded volume as a % of physical demand (RHS) 0 NSW QLD SA VIC 0 Underlying NEM System Demand (LHS) 69,582,611 51,855,046 11,956,521 45,291,529 Exchange Traded Futures 154,477, ,134,990 9,398, ,170,752 & Options Volume (LHS) Exchange traded volume as a 222% 320% 79% 256% % of physical demand (RHS) Sources: ASX, AEMO 14

15 ASX Futures and Options Liquidity % of Futures Trades by State, FY15 % of Options Trades by State, FY15 NSW 37% QLD 35% SA 2% VIC 26% NSW 30% QLD 42% SA 1% VIC 26% Source: ASX 15

16 ASX Futures and Options Liquidity Trading Mechanism comparison for Futures Trades, FY15 Trading Mechanism comparison for Options Trades, FY15 On-Screen 70% Blocks 26% EFP 4% On-Screen 19% Blocks 81% EFP 0% Source: ASX 16

17 Liquidity can exceed Open Interest by up to 700% NSW Q Baseload MW 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Open Interest MW (LHS) Cumulative Volume Traded MW (LHS) Cumulative Liquidity as % of Open Interest (RHS) 900% 800% 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% Liquidity as proportion of Open Interest 0 Oct-09 Apr-09 Oct-10 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-11 Oct-12 Apr-12 Oct-13 Apr-13 0 Source: ASX 17

18 Option Market Opportunities Electricity Options trade between 65% to 82% of annual electricity consumption. Naturals (i.e. Generators and Retailers) use ASX products to hedge their natural pool price risk. Many participants establish outright option positions, not delta-hedged option spreads. The opportunity exists for specialist option strategies including implied volatility strategies. The attraction of being able to hedge sizable forward risk and avoiding capital intensive initial margins. Robust levels of volatility present trading opportunities. New fee structure to encourage multi-legged strategies with more favorable risk/reward profile. 18

19 Other Trading Strategies/Opportunities Bought option strategies allow inbuilt stop-loss protection on trading positions. Spark Spreading. Trading Electricity contracts in QLD vs newly listed gas contracts on Wallumbilla Natural Gas Supply Hub. Wallumbilla Natural Gas supply Hub as the balancing market for LNG export trains, provide linkages to Asian Energy Markets, which in turn correlate to global macro drivers. Buying non-firm Financial Transmission Rights (cash settled inter-connect options) from AEMO and/ or spreading against firm inter-regional ASX futures. Spreading $300 Caps versus base futures. Other inter-regional and time spread strategies. 19

20 Market Access To access the market, traders must have (at a minimum) a Clearing and Trading Agreement with an ASX Clear (Futures) participant. Traders can place orders: Via voice order over the phone with a licensed broker, or Via direct access ISV systems (see below). ABN AMRO Clearing Sydney Pty Ltd Adrian Rubin HSBC Bank Gavin Powell Bell Potter Geoff Louw JPMorgan Markets Robert E Persson Citigroup Global Markets Ian Nissen Macquarie Bank Limited Chris Thompson Credit Suisse Damien Jenkins Merrill Lynch Simon Fraser Deutsche Bank David Starkey UBS Paul Noorbergen BNP Paribas Ross Davies ross.davies@au.bnpparibas.com OM Financial Limited Daniel Crawford

21 ASX Exchange Fees Futures Options Other External Fees Base Load Monthly Futures = $10.50 per side Base Load Quarterly Futures = $29.50 per side Base Load Futures Strip = $118 per side ($29.50 x 4 legs in the strip) Base Load $300 Cap Futures = $29.50 per side Base Load $300 Cap Futures Strip = $148 per side ($29.50 x 4 legs in the strip) Peak Load Quarterly Futures = $13 per side Peak Load Futures Strip = $52 per side ($13 x 4 legs in the strip) Base Load Average Rate Quarterly Options = $29.50 per side Base Load Calendar Year / Financial Year Strip Options = $59 per side Options Abandonment = Nil Option Exercise into Futures = Nil Exchange for Physical (EFP) = Nil Block Trade Registration Fee = $24 per leg per side Mandatory Settlement = As per headline Exchange Fee Brokerage transaction fee: negotiable with broker Clearing transaction fee: negotiable with Clearing Participant For more information, go to asx.com.au/futuresfeeschedule Price Support Discounts Available To enquire, please contact the ASX Energy Team on or info@asxenergy.com.au All prices are in $AUD 21

22 ASX Energy: Services & Information Intra-day alerts Options order alerts Off-market alerts; Block Trades, Custom (strategy) market, Exchange for Physical & Request for Quote Intra-day delayed market data online Futures and option trades (including Block Trades) Daily open interest Market bids/offers including implied bid/asks between Month, Quarter, Calendar and Financial Year contracts. Also implied Off-Peak prices. ASX Energy general information Free information sessions for new entrants Product specifications, initial margins, product codes and more information Weekly and periodic market news bulletins 22

23 Useful Links and Information Industry and Government Links Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) aemo.com.au Australian Energy Regulator (AER) aer.gov.au Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) bom.gov.au Recommended Industry References AER: State of the Market Reports aer.gov.au AFMA: Australian Financial Markets Report afma.com.au 23

24 Further information Paul Roberts Senior Manager, Energy and Commodities T M +61 (0) E Paul.Roberts@asx.com.au Melissa Tan Client Services Manager T M +61 (0) E Melissa.Tan@asx.com.au General Information T (Freecall within Australia) T (International) Visit asxenergy.com.au Follow Connect ASX Energy Chris Pugh Manager, Energy Sales T M +61 (0) E Chris.Pugh@asx.com.au 24

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