COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT & TRADING REPRINTED FROM. risk.net February 2015

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1 COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT & TRADING REPRINTED FROM risk.net February 2015 COMMODITY RANKINGS 2015

2 EXITS AND ENTRANCES Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking has topped the poll for the third year in a row in this year s Risk and Energy Risk Commodity Rankings, which are marked by several dramatic exits and one impressive comeback. By Mark Pengelly In 2014, commodity derivatives dealers say they saw something of a recovery in their business. A combination of volatility in natural gas markets and tumbling crude oil prices have helped bolster client hedging activity, after several lean years in which banks were hit hard by a toxic mix of low revenues, higher capital requirements and tougher regulation. Those conditions have set the stage for several dramatic exits and one impressive comeback in this year s Risk and Energy Risk Commodity Rankings. In the best overall dealer category, Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking (SG CIB) comes in first place for the third year in a row, winning 10.9% of the vote (see figure 1). The French bank also achieves first place among energy dealers again, for the third year in a row where it clinches a marginally lower 10.8% of the vote. SG CIB s success is underpinned by solid performances in markets including European oil and products, and European natural gas. It also won individual product categories such as soft commodities, commodity index products, structured hedging and risk management advisory. The bank enjoys a particularly strong showing in base metals, coming first among base metals dealers and brokers with 12.6% of the vote. Here, SG CIB manages a clean sweep of all six individual product categories: copper, aluminium, nickel, lead, zinc and tin. Nevertheless, there are signs there may be more competition in store Amy Johansson / Shutterstock.com 1 Reprinted from February 2015

3 F1. Top 10 dealers: share of the vote (1) = position held in 2014 rankings 8 % Societe Generale (1) Bank of America Merrill Lynch Goldman Sachs (2) BNP Paribas (7) JP Morgan (8) Citi (9) GDF Suez Trading (6) Barclays (4) UBS (10) Morgan Stanley for the French bank next year. In several areas, SG CIB enjoys a slightly narrower margin of victory compared with 2014: the bank s lead in the best overall dealer category drops from 1.9 to 1.3 percentage points, for instance. And in the pivotal oil and products category, the bank performs worse than last year, dropping from second to third place. This year, the greatest challenge to SG CIB comes from Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML), which has staged a remarkable comeback. Like other banks, BAML has been reshaping its commodities business over recent years in the face of tough market conditions. In January 2014, the US bank revealed it would withdraw from European power and gas sales and trading, although it would remain active in markets such as oil, coal and US power and gas. It has gone on to achieve robust results in these areas in this year s rankings. In the best overall dealer and energy dealers categories, BAML comes second with 9.6% of the vote a vast improvement for a dealer that did not appear in either table during BAML s resurgence in oil is especially noteworthy. Last year, BAML ranked joint seventh with JP Morgan for oil and products, winning just 6.4% of the vote. This year, it leads the pack with 11.1% of the vote. The bank romps home in all three North American oil and products categories, including West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, other North American crudes and North American refined products. Similarly, BAML triumphs in the individual product categories of US power for which it came fifth last year and eastern natural gas, where it was not ranked at all in BAML s rise comes largely at the expense of Goldman Sachs, which drops from second to third place in the best overall dealer category, with 8.6% of the vote. Among energy dealers, the US bank achieves fourth place, but on a healthier 9.2% of the vote. Rankings in full Overall winners 4 5 North American oil and products 6 European oil and products 6 North American natural gas 7 European natural gas 7 8 North American power 8 European power 9 10 Coal 10 Emissions 10 Biofuels 10 Weather 11 Precious metals 11 Base metals Iron ore 12 Freight 12 Soft commodities 12 Commodity indexes 13 Structuring/advisory 13 Research 14 Traditionally, Goldman has done well in markets such as North American oil and products, and natural gas a trend that continues in this year s rankings. Goldman achieves first prize for the individual product categories of Henry Hub natural gas and western natural gas, while it also polls strongly in WTI crude oil, other North American crudes, North American refined products, European refined products and eastern natural gas. Notable absences Some of the major banks included in last year s rankings are notable for their absences from the top 10 dealers this year. While Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse ranked third and fifth in 2014, respectively, both banks have dropped out of the table after closing down most of their commodities businesses. Meanwhile, Barclays drops from fourth to eighth place, having announced a retreat from much of its activity in commodities in April last year. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the beneficiaries of these moves are those dealers that remain committed to commodities. Banks such as BNP Paribas, Citi and JP Morgan all record an improvement in their overall performance this year. Chief among them is BNP Paribas, which achieves fourth place in the best overall dealer category, garnering 8.5% of the vote. Among energy dealers, the risk.net 2

4 F2. Top 10 brokers: share of the vote (1) = position held in 2014 rankings 12 % Icap (1) GFI Group (4) Tullett Prebon (3) Tradition (2) Marex Spectron (5) Newedge (6) PVM (9) BGC Partners (7) Jefferies Bache (8) Sunrise Brokers (10) French bank performs even better, coming third with 9.4% of the vote. While the same names feature at the top table, the best overall broker category undergoes a slight reordering this time around. Strong results in natural gas and precious metals help London-based Icap hang onto first place, winning 15.5% of the vote (see figure 2). Among energy brokers, the firm also retains pole position, with 13.1% of the vote. But New Yorkbased GFI Group has shot up to reach second place in the best overall broker and energy brokers categories. In doing so, it overtakes London-based Tullett Prebon, which comes third, and Switzerland-based Tradition, in fourth. A number of smaller brokers trail behind the big four, including London-based Marex Spectron and Paris-based Newedge. Tullett Prebon, the new owner of London-based PVM, should be pleased at the oil broker s performance, which sees it usurp Icap as top broker in oil and products. Tullett completed its acquisition of PVM on November 26 last year, slightly too late for the firms to be counted as one entity in this year s poll. If they had been, the combined company would have comfortably beaten Icap into second place. Beyond the banks and brokers, this year s rankings throw up plenty of interesting results in particular markets. For example, the trading arm of Switzerland-based utility Axpo storms to victory in power, picking up 11.7% of the vote. The firm ranks in the top five in every European power market and How the poll was conducted Risk and Energy Risk received 1,400 valid responses to this year s survey. Respondents were asked to vote for their top three dealers and brokers in order of preference for any categories in which they had been active over the course of the year. This year, some categories were amalgamated or cut, and others added, after consultation with market participants. The organisation of the rankings will be revisited again next year and any feedback is welcome. It is important to note this poll is not designed to reflect volumes traded in any particular market and is therefore not necessarily a direct reflection of market share voters could base their decisions on a variety of criteria, including pricing, liquidity provision, counterparty risk, speed of execution and reliability. In that sense, this poll should be considered a reflection of how market professionals view their peers in terms of overall quality of service. When aggregating the results, we strip out what comes first in Eastern Europe, the Netherlands, the Nordic region and Spain. The individual product category of biofuels is won by Anglo- Dutch oil major Shell, while reinsurer Swiss Re reaps success in weather. And in iron ore, Australian bank Macquarie comes from nowhere in 2014 to top the category. we consider to be invalid votes. These include people voting for their own firm, multiple votes from the same person or IP address, votes from people using personal accounts, votes by people who choose the same firm indiscriminately throughout the poll, votes by people who clearly do not trade the product, and block votes from groups of people on the same desk at the same institution voting for the same firm. The votes were weighted, with three points for a first place, two points for second and one for third. Only categories with a sufficient number of votes were included in the final poll. The top firms are listed by overall percentage of votes. To decide the overall winner, we use the overall percentage of votes for each firm. The survey also includes a series of overall rankings, which are calculated by aggregating the total number of votes across individual categories. These results are naturally weighted, as there are more votes in the larger, more liquid, categories than in the smaller ones. 3 Reprinted from February 2015

5 Best overall dealer 1 1 Societe Generale Bank of America Merrill Lynch Goldman Sachs BNP Paribas JP Morgan Citi GDF Suez Trading Barclays UBS Morgan Stanley 4.1 Best overall broker Broker % 1 1 Icap GFI Tullett Prebon Tradition Marex Spectron Newedge PVM BGC Partners Jefferies Bache Sunrise Brokers 2.1 Energy dealers 1 1 Societe Generale Bank of America Merrill Lynch BNP Paribas Goldman Sachs GDF Suez Trading EDF Trading Morgan Stanley Citi JP Morgan Axpo Trading 3.7 Energy brokers Broker % 1 1 Icap GFI Tullett Prebon Tradition Newedge PVM OTC Global Holdings Marex Spectron BGC Partners Starsupply Commodity Brokers 2.4 Oil and products dealers 1 7= Bank of America Merrill Lynch Goldman Sachs Societe Generale BNP Paribas Morgan Stanley = JP Morgan Citi BP Barclays Shell 3.3 Oil and products brokers Broker % 1 2 PVM Icap Tullett Prebon Tradition GFI Newedge BGC Partners Marex Spectron LCM Commodities Eagle Commodities 4.4 Natural gas dealers 1 1 GDF Suez Trading Societe Generale EDF Trading Goldman Sachs BNP Paribas Bank of America Merrill Lynch E.on Global Commodities Gazprom Marketing & Trading JP Morgan Mercuria 4.8 Natural gas brokers Broker % 1 1 Icap GFI Tullett Prebon Tradition Marex Spectron Reprinted from February 2015

6 Power dealers 1 3 Axpo Trading EDF Trading E.on Global Commodities GDF Suez Trading RWE Supply & Trading Societe Generale Goldman Sachs Vattenfall Bank of America Merrill Lynch Mercuria 3.9 Power brokers Broker % 1 1 Tullett Prebon Tradition Icap GFI Marex Spectron 8.8 Precious metals dealers 1 1 UBS HSBC Mitsui Global Precious Metals JP Morgan ScotiaMocatta Credit Suisse Societe Generale 5.7 8= 7 Barclays 5.3 8= 6 Deutsche Bank Standard Bank 4.6 Precious metals brokers Broker % 1 2 Icap = Tradition BGC Partners GFI = Tullett Prebon Newedge INTL FCStone Marex Spectron Jefferies Bache Amalgamated Metal Trading 4.3 Base metals dealers/brokers Dealer/broker % 1 1 Societe Generale JP Morgan Bank of America Merrill Lynch Macquarie BNP Paribas Citi Jefferies Bache 4.8 9= 7 Marex Spectron 3.9 9= 2 Barclays Goldman Sachs 3.8 Research 1 1 Societe Generale Bank of America Merrill Lynch Goldman Sachs BNP Paribas 6.1 5= 8 Macquarie 6.3 5= HSBC Barclays Citi Morgan Stanley UBS 5.2 na denotes a category that was not run in 2014 denotes where firms did not appear among the top institutions in 2014 risk.net 5

7 North American oil and products WTI dealers WTI brokers 1 5 Bank of America Merrill Lynch PVM 2 1 Goldman Sachs Eagle Commodities Brokers 3 2 JP Morgan Icap 4 Morgan Stanley Citi 8.5 Other North American crudes dealers Other North American crudes brokers 1 4= Bank of America Merrill Lynch 14.4 insufficient votes 2 1 Goldman Sachs BP = JP Morgan Citi 8.7 Refined products dealers Refined products brokers 1 2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Tradition 2 Citi Icap 3 1 Goldman Sachs Marex Spectron 4 3 JP Morgan Societe Generale 10.1 European oil and products Brent dealers Brent brokers 1 1 Societe Generale PVM 2 2 BNP Paribas Icap 3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Tullett Prebon 4 3 Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley 8.6 Refined products dealers Refined products brokers 1 1 Societe Generale PVM 2 2 BNP Paribas Icap 3 5 Goldman Sachs Tullett Prebon 4 3 Morgan Stanley Bank of America Merrill Lynch Reprinted from February 2015

8 North American natural gas Henry Hub dealers Henry Hub brokers 1 1 Goldman Sachs Icap 2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch OTC Global Holdings 3 3 Societe Generale GFI 4 4 JP Morgan Citi 8.7 Eastern natural gas dealers Eastern natural gas brokers 1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Icap 2 1 Goldman Sachs GFI 3 Macquarie OTC Global Holdings 4= Citi 8.9 4= 2 JP Morgan 8.9 Western natural gas dealers Western natural gas brokers 1 2 Goldman Sachs GFI 2 EDF Trading Icap 3 3 JP Morgan OTC Global Holdings 4 Societe Generale Bank of America Merrill Lynch 8.8 European natural gas NBP (UK) dealers NBP (UK) brokers 1 1 GDF Suez Trading GFI 2 5 Societe Generale Icap 3 BNP Paribas Tullett Prebon 4 4 Goldman Sachs EDF Trading 8.4 TTF (Netherlands) dealers TTF (Netherlands) brokers 1 2 GDF Suez Trading GFI 2 1 Societe Generale Icap 3 3 BNP Paribas Tullett Prebon 4 Mercuria EDF Trading 7.9 Zeebrugge (Belgium) dealers Zeebrugge (Belgium) brokers 1 1 GDF Suez Trading Tullett Prebon 2 3 EDF Trading GFI 3 Gazprom Marketing & Trading Tradition 4 2 Societe Generale E.on Global Commodities 8.1 risk.net 7

9 European natural gas continued Gaspool (Germany) dealers Gaspool (Germany) brokers 1 na E.on Global Commodities na GFI 2 Gazprom Marketing & Trading Icap 3 GDF Suez Trading Tradition 4 Societe Generale RWE Supply & Trading 8.8 NCG (Germany) dealers NCG (Germany) brokers 1 2 GDF Suez Trading Icap 2 1 E.on Global Commodities GFI 3 4 Societe Generale Tullett Prebon 4 3 RWE Supply & Trading EDF Trading 8.2 PEG N+S (France) dealers PEG N+S (France) brokers 1 1 GDF Suez Trading Icap 2 2 Societe Generale GFI 3 3 EDF Trading Marex Spectron 4 5 Gazprom Marketing & Trading BNP Paribas 7.6 PSV (Italy) dealers PSV (Italy) brokers 1 1 Axpo Trading Icap 2 Banca IMI Tradition 3 2 Eni GFI 4 3 GDF Suez Trading Gunvor 8.1 North American power US power dealers US power brokers 1 5 Bank of America Merrill Lynch GFI 2 BP Icap 3 4 Morgan Stanley OTC Global Holdings 4 1 Citi Exelon Reprinted from February 2015

10 European power Great Britain dealers Great Britain brokers 1 1 EDF Trading Tullett Prebon 2 4 E.on Global Commodities GFI 3 3 GDF Suez Trading Tradition 4 2 RWE Supply & Trading Axpo Trading 8.2 Germany dealers Germany brokers 1 1 E.on Global Commodities Tullett Prebon 2 2 RWE Supply & Trading Tradition 3 4 Axpo Trading Icap 4 3 EDF Trading Vattenfall 8.5 France dealers France brokers 1 1 EDF Trading GFI 2 2 GDF Suez Trading Tullett Prebon 3 3 Societe Generale Icap 4 Axpo Trading E.on Global Commodities 8.4 Italy dealers Italy brokers 1 1 Enel Trade Tullett Prebon 2 2 Axpo Trading GFI 3 3 Edison Tradition 4 Banca IMI EDF Trading 9.1 Nordic dealers Nordic brokers 1 1 Axpo Trading Icap 2 2 Vattenfall Tradition 3 RWE Supply & Trading Tullett Prebon 4 E.on Global Commodities = Statkraft 9.0 Netherlands dealers Netherlands brokers 1 5 Axpo Trading Icap 2 4 E.on Global Commodities Tullett Prebon 3 RWE Supply & Trading Tradition 4 2 EDF Trading Vattenfall 9.4 Belgium dealers Belgium brokers 1 2 GDF Suez Trading Tullett Prebon 2 4 E.on Global Commodities Tradition 3 Axpo Trading Icap 4 5 Societe Generale EDF Trading 9.6 risk.net 9

11 European power continued Spain dealers Spain brokers 1 1= Axpo Trading Tullett Prebon 2 1= Endesa Icap 3 5 E.on Global Commodities CIMD 4 3 Iberdrola Tradition 5 EDF Trading 8.1 Eastern Europe dealers Eastern Europe brokers 1 1 Axpo Trading Tradition 2 2 Gen-I GFI 3 3 ČEZ Icap 4 Alpiq RWE Supply & Trading 10.0 Coal Coal dealers Coal brokers 1 na BNP Paribas na GFI 2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Icap 3 Societe Generale Marex Spectron 4 Goldman Sachs EDF Trading 8.5 Emissions Emissions dealers Emissions brokers 1 Vertis Icap 2 1 CF Partners Tullett Prebon 3 Redshaw Advisors Evolution Markets 4 BNP Paribas Societe Generale 8.7 Biofuels Biofuels dealers Biofuels brokers 1 1 Shell Starsupply Commodity Brokers 2 4 Cargill Icap 3 2 Archer Daniels Midland Greenea 4 3 Gunvor BP Reprinted from February 2015

12 Weather Weather dealers 1 1 Swiss Re Endurance Global Weather Munich Re Cargill EDF Trading 9.1 Precious metals Gold dealers Gold brokers 1 1 UBS Icap 2 2 HSBC Tradition 3 4 Mitsui Global Precious Metals INTL FCStone 4 JP Morgan ScotiaMocatta 9.6 Silver dealers Silver brokers 1 1 UBS Icap 2 2 HSBC Tradition 3 3 Mitsui Global Precious Metals GFI 4 5 ScotiaMocatta Credit Suisse 9.4 Platinum and palladium dealers Platinum and palladium brokers 1 1 UBS Icap 2 2 HSBC BGC Partners 3 3 Mitsui Global Precious Metals Tullett Prebon 4 JP Morgan Standard Bank 8.9 Base metals Copper Dealer/broker % 1 1 Societe Generale JP Morgan Bank of America Merrill Lynch BNP Paribas Citi 7.7 Aluminium Dealer/broker % 1 1 Societe Generale JP Morgan = Bank of America Merrill Lynch 9.1 3= BNP Paribas Macquarie 8.6 risk.net 11

13 Base metals continued Nickel Dealer/broker % 1 1 Societe Generale Macquarie JP Morgan BNP Paribas Bank of America Merrill Lynch 9.0 Zinc Dealer/broker % 1 1 Societe Generale JP Morgan Bank of America Merrill Lynch Citi Jefferies Bache 8.8 Lead Dealer/broker % 1 1 Societe Generale JP Morgan Citi Bank of America Merrill Lynch Macquarie 8.8 Tin Dealer/broker % 1 1 Societe Generale JP Morgan Bank of America Merrill Lynch Macquarie Barclays 8.4 Iron ore Iron ore dealers Iron ore brokers 1 Macquarie GFI 2 Citi Icap 3 Morgan Stanley SSY 4 1 Societe Generale ANZ 8.4 Freight Freight dealers Freight brokers 1 na Bank of America Merrill Lynch = na Clarksons 2 Societe Generale = GFI 3 Archer Daniels Midland Icap 4 Cargill Trafigura 7.8 Soft commodities Soft commodities dealers Soft commodities brokers 1 1 Societe Generale Newedge 2 Cargill INTL FCStone 3 5 BNP Paribas Sucden Financial 4 2 Macquarie Archer Daniels Midland Reprinted from February 2015

14 Commodity indexes Commodity index products dealers 1 1 Societe Generale Goldman Sachs BNP Paribas Bank of America Merrill Lynch JP Morgan 8.1 Structuring/advisory Structured hedging dealers 1 na Societe Generale BNP Paribas Goldman Sachs JP Morgan Bank of America Merrill Lynch 9.5 Risk management advisory dealers 1 na Societe Generale Bank of America Merrill Lynch Goldman Sachs Barclays BNP Paribas 10.0 risk.net 13

15 Research Research in North American oil and products 1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Societe Generale Goldman Sachs Citi Morgan Stanley 9.6 Research in European oil and products 1 1 Societe Generale Bank of America Merrill Lynch = Goldman Sachs = Barclays BNP Paribas 9.5 Research in biofuels 1 na Greenea Starsupply Commodity Brokers Societe Generale Bank of America Merrill Lynch Morgan Stanley 8.5 Research in North American natural gas 1 2 Societe Generale = Bank of America Merrill Lynch = 3 JP Morgan Goldman Sachs Citi 8.3 Research in European natural gas 1 1 Societe Generale GDF Suez Trading BNP Paribas Bank of America Merrill Lynch Goldman Sachs 9.1 Research in European power 1 2 Societe Generale Axpo Trading GDF Suez Trading BNP Paribas Deutsche Bank 8.6 Research in coal 1 1 Societe Generale Bank of America Merrill Lynch BNP Paribas Macquarie Goldman Sachs 8.3 Research in soft commodities 1 1 Macquarie Societe Generale Marex Spectron Jefferies Bache Archer Daniels Midland 8.4 Research in precious metals 1 1 UBS HSBC Mitsui Global Precious Metals Goldman Sachs Societe Generale 9.4 Research in base metals 1 1 Societe Generale Macquarie Bank of America Merrill Lynch Goldman Sachs JP Morgan 8.4 Research in North American power 1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Goldman Sachs Societe Generale BP Barclays Reprinted from February 2015