A summary of trading activity, products and drivers

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1 Trading in California s Carbon Market: A summary of trading activity, products and drivers Prepared by: Lenny Hochschild Prepared for: Northwest Power and Conservation Council September 5,

2 Evolution Markets Leadership Since Evolution Markets was founded in 2000, we have received more than 130 awards for excellence in brokerage. Below you will find a sample of our most recent awards from For the full list our awards, please visit Annual Customer Survey BestBroker Broker, Options (EUAs, CERs) Best Broker, Spot & Futures (EUAs, CERs) Best Broker, Secondary Market Kyoto Project Credits Best Broker, North American Markets (California) BestBroker Broker, North American Markets (RGGI) Best Broker, Renewable Energy Certificates, North America Best Broker, SO 2 Best Broker, NOx (Reclaim) Best Broker, Nox Best Broker ERCs Best Broker, Weather Risk Management, North America Best Broker, Weather Risk Management, Europe Best Broker, Weather Risk Management, Asia 2012 * Annual Commodity Rankings 2012 Best Broker, U.S. Coal * Best Broker, Asia Pacific Coal Best Broker, Weather Derivatives * Best Broker, Emissions House of the Year: U.S. Coal (2010) Specialist Broker of the Year (2008) House of the Year: European Emissions (2007) Annual Awards House of the Year: Weather / Emissions (2004) *category runner up 2

3 California Carbon Market Activity 2013 Year to Date Average ICE CCA Daily Volume for Allowances Futures: 226,000 Options: 142,000 Total: 368, Spot Market Pricing 2013 Vintage $ Vintage $ Vintage $ Offsets: $9 $11 range depending on offset type and delivery period Market Psychology Recent market activity reflective of sentiment that CA Cap & Trade program is here to stay First retirements to take place in Nov 14 which likely means increased liquidity next year 3

4 Carbon Price Drivers Hedging Behavior Many power entities hedge carbon when they sell wholesale power providing price support Will Transportation fuels begin hedging significant volumes in 2014? Structural $10 price floor + 5% escalator and CPI provides price support IPP s and Refiners Transportation Fuels receive no allocations Other sectors receiving on average 90% allocations Holding limits it could adversely impact tliquidity idit Auction/ICE/Bilateral Markets Events Quebec Linkage November 2013 Auction First Offset issuances 4

5 Carbon/Power Relationship 1H 2013: Average CCA Price: $14.57/mtCO2e (CAL ISO DMM August 2013 p 41) Cal ISO s Department of Market Monitoring estimates that the average wholesale electricity price impact is about $6.00/MWh for 1H This is consistent with the emissions costs for gas units typically setting prices in the ISO market. Given the importers unspecified emissions default rate as established by CARB of tonnes/mwh, the above numbers make sense. 5

6 Benchmark California Carbon Contract: ICE CCA V13 Dec 13 $22.00 $21.00 $20.00 $19.00 $18.00 $17.00 $16.00 $15.00 $14.00 $13.00 $12.00 $11.00 $ , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 9/3/2012 9/17/ /1/ /15/ /29/ /12/ /26/ /10/ /24/2012 1/8/2013 1/22/2013 2/5/2013 2/19/2013 3/5/2013 3/19/2013 4/2/2013 4/16/2013 4/30/2013 5/14/2013 5/29/2013 6/12/2013 6/26/2013 7/11/2013 7/25/2013 8/8/2013 8/22/2013 Volume Daily Price Settlement Source: Intercontinental Exchange 6

7 Open Interest (millions) V13 CCA Open Interest (Futures) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,

8 Open Interest (millions) 25,000 Total V13 OI (Futures & Options) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,

9 Open Interest V16 CCA Futures 9,000 Open Interest V16 CCA Futures 8,000 7,000 6,000 s Title Axi 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Jul Aug 13 9

10 Closing Comments All types of compliance entities and liquidity providers are actively transacting in the California Carbon markets today Volumes and liquidity are relatively healthy w/ more participantstrading trading since the start of compliance this year Pricing appears to be reflective of the fundamentals The offset market is moving forward slowly and will likely increase activity once the first CARB approved offsets are issued 10

11 Contact Information Lenny Hochschild Managing Director, GHG Markets Evolution Markets Inc. 3 Embarcadero Center, Suite 1630 San Francisco, CA tel mob website 11

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