POWERED BY SOCCEREX 20 UNDER / 2017 SEASON COMPILED BY PRIME TIME SPORT POWERED BY THE PTS FOOTBALL VALUE INDEX

Transcription

1 POWERED BY SOCCEREX 20 UNDER / 207 SEASON COMPILED BY PRIME TIME SPORT POWERED BY THE PTS FOOTBALL INDEX

2 INTRODUCTION Welcome to the second edition of the Soccerex 20 Under 2 report by Prime Time Sport, compiled using our Football Value Index valuation methodology. Fuelled by increased broadcasting deals and the awakening of China as a financial force in football, the global transfer market has never been so buoyant with so many clubs able to compete for top players who, as a result, are attracting higher fees. for improvement that will add to their team over a longer period. An example of this is Anthony Martial who many felt Manchester United paid over the odds for last summer in making him the world s most expensive teenager Martial went on to deliver a strong debut season for United which culminated in them lifting the FA Cup and also played his part in France s run to the final of Euro 206. At just 9 he is an important part of their future and rightly the top of our rankings for the 206/207 season. Youth continues to command a premium with clubs keen to invest in talent with the potential Esteve Calzada Prime Time Sport CEO & Football Agent THE FVI & PRINCIPLES The Football Value Index by Prime Time Sport is a best-in-class player valuation methodology, used by football clubs and the sport industry, to obtain an independent and accurate valuation of football players. the accounting value vs the real value can affect the equity position of the club), to make a rational value allocation for insurance, to provide real and relevant information to investors, and to set guarantees in loans and other financial products. Clubs need to know the REAL value of their main asset, the squad. The accounting value may differ significantly from this, so there are many situations when football clubs need the most accurate valuation of players or squads. a) At-Present Principle: The player valuation is made bearing in mind both personal attributes and pitch performance, using player s current personal information and the performances of both current season and the previous one. We really hope that this product helps the football industry to be more efficient. The main usages are in transfers (to help in the decision process and in negotiations), in M&A processes, in equity (when a significant difference between b) Reliability Principle: Objective and contrasted sources are used for the performance of this report; the Soccerex Transfer Review report by Prime Time Sport (a reference in the European market for over 6 years for European

3 transfers), FIFA stats and other sources. c) Independency Principle: Due to an internal methodology and the sources used in the project, independent results and objective valuation are guaranteed. d) Scope: Players born on or after July st 995. METHODOLOGY For every player, we researched: Current club average player sale PTS Rating Index. Study of stats and value. The origin club affects the the expert valuation of technical skills player value. of each player, analysing: Current club standard player analysis. An analysis of the standard player sold in the last 5 years by the current club give us data to adjust weights for the PTS Rating Index. National Team appearances. Appearances with a national team are a factor that boosts value, especially if the national team is in the Top 0 of FIFA s Comparable football clubs average Rankings. selling player value. Calculation of average value of the last 5 years transfers performed by comparable clubs. Minutes played. This aims to reflect the importance of a player and represents an Market Value perception. Popular transfer sites and press information objective variable to assess performance. can affect the player s value, and have to be considered. Goals scored. Analysis of goals, weighted per position on the Position on the pitch of each player. pitch. The average transfer paid (excluding temporary sessions and free transfers for ending contracts) per position of ALL transfers performed in the 5 Injuries. The player s value is affected by how prone they are to injury. major leagues (UK, SP, IT, DE, FR) in the last summer transfer window shows demand for different positions. Age. Media Value. Assessed by the PTS Sports Marketing team. Technical quality. An essential factor in a player valuation. Years outstanding on player s contract.

4 20 GIANLUIGI DONNARUMMA ITALIAN AC MILAN U2 GOALKEEPER M 9 GABRIEL BARBOSA BRAZILIAN SANTOS STRIKER M

5 8 OUSMANE DEMBELÉ FRENCH BORUSSIA DORTMUND U2 RIGHT WING M 7 RÚBEN NEVES PORTUGUESE FC PORTO MIDFIELDER M

6 6 GIOVANI LO CELSO ARGENTINA ROSARIO CENTRAL U23 ATTACKING MIDFIELDER M 5 MAHMOUD DAHOUD GERMAN BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH U2 MIDFIELDER M

7 4 NIKLAS SÜLE GERMAN HOFFENHEIM U2 CENTRE BACK M 3 RIECHEDLY BAZOER DUTCH AJAX MIDFIELDER M

8 2 YOURI TIELEMANS BELGIAN RSC ANDERLECHT U2 MIDFIELDER M GABRIEL JESUS BRAZILIAN PALMEIRAS U23 LEFT WING M

9 0 JULIAN WEIGL GERMAN BORUSSIA DORTMUND DEFENSIVE MIDFIELDER M 9 KELECHI IHEANACHO NIGERIAN MANCHESTER CITY STRIKER M

10 8 MAX MEYER GERMAN SCHALKE 04 ATTACKING MIDFIELDER M 7 MARCUS RASHFORD ENGLISH MANCHESTER UNITED STRIKER M

11 6 BREEL DONALD EMBOLO SWISS SCHALKE 04 STRIKER M 5 KINGSLEY COMAN FRENCH BAYERN MUNICH RIGHT WING M

12 4 DELE ALLI ENGLISH TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR MIDFIELDER M 3 RENATO SANCHES PORTUGUESE BAYERN MUNICH MIDFIELDER M

13 2 LEROY SANÉ GERMAN SCHALKE 04 RIGHT WING M ANTHONY MARTIAL FRENCH MANCHESTER UNITED STRIKER M

14 RESULTS RANK PLAYER D.O.B. ( K) MARTIAL MANCHESTER UNITED FRENCH STRIKER 05/2/995 47,50 2 SANÉ SCHALKE 04 GERMAN RIGHT WING /0/996 37,32 3 SANCHES BAYERN MUNICH PORTUGUESE MIDFIELD 8/08/997 34,550 4 ALLI TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR ENGLISH MIDFIELD /04/996 34,40 5 COMAN BAYERN MUNICH FRENCH RIGHT WING 3/06/996 30,694 6 EMBOLO SCHALKE 04 SWISS STRIKER 4/02/997 25,44 7 RASHFORD MANCHESTER UNITED ENGLISH STRIKER 3/0/997 22,509 8 MEYER SCHALKE 04 GERMAN ATTACKING MIDFIELD 8/09/995 2,644 9 IHEANACHO MANCHESTER CITY NIGERIAN STRIKER 03/0/996 20,066 0 WEIGL BORUSSIA DORTMUND GERMAN DEFENSIVE MIDFIELD 08/09/995 9,823

15 RESULTS RANK PLAYER D.O.B. ( K) JESUS PALMEIRAS BRAZILAN U-23 LEFT WING 03/04/997 9,822 2 TIELEMANS RSC ANDERLECHT BELGIAN U-2 MIDFIELD 07/05/997 9,33 3 BAZOER AJAX DUTCH MIDFIELD 2/0/996 9,53 4 SÜLE HOFFENHEIM GERMAN U-2 CENTER BACK 03/09/995 6,654 5 DAHOUD BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH GERMAN U-2 MIDFIELD 0/0/996 5,027 6 LO CELSO ROSARIO CENTRAL ARGENTINIAN U-23 ATTACKING MIDFIELD 09/04/996 4,324 7 NEVES FC PORTO PORTUGUESE MIDFIELD 3/03/997 4,085 8 DEMBELÉ BORUSSIA DORTMUND FRENCH U-2 RIGHT WING 5/05/997 4,05 9 GABRIEL BARBOSA SANTOS BRAZILIAN STRIKER 30/08/996 3,89 20 DONNARUMMA AC MILAN ITALIAN U-2 GOALKEEPER 25/02/999 3,750

16 INFOGRAPHICS COUNTY BREAKDOWN WHERE ARE THE TOP 20 FROM? FRANCE ENGLAND BELGIUM NETHERLANDS GERMANY SWITZERLAND FRENCH PLAYERS ENGLISH PLAYERS BELGIAN PLAYER DUTCH PLAYER GERMAN PLAYERS SWISS PLAYER 9.985M M 9.33M 9.53M 0.280M 25.44M PLAYERS AT FRENCH CLUBS PLAYERS AT ENGLISH CLUBS PLAYER AT A BELGIAN CLUB PLAYER AT A DUTCH CLUB PLAYERS AT GERMAN CLUBS PLAYERS AT SWISS CLUBS 0M M 9.33M 9.53M 25.07M 0M ARGENTINA BRAZIL PORTUGAL NIGERIA ITALY 2 2 ARGENTINIAN PLAYER BRAZILIAN PLAYERS PORTUGUESE PLAYERS NIGERIAN PLAYER ITALIAN PLAYER 4.324M 33.73M M M 3.750M 2 0 PLAYER AT AN ARGENTINIAN CLUB PLAYERS AT BRAZILIAN CLUBS PLAYER AT A PORTUGUESE CLUB PLAYERS AT NIGERIAN CLUBS PLAYER AT AN ITALIAN CLUB 4.324M 33.73M 4.085M 0M 3.750M

17 205 STATISTICS 206 STATISTICS S OF POWER WHERE ARE THE TOP 20 ON THE PITCH? EARLY DEVELOPERS WHAT NATIONAL SQUAD LEVEL HAVE THE TOP 20 REACHED? 2 SENIOR U SENIOR U-23 / U-2 7 MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS WHICH OF THE BIG 5 LEAGUES HAS THE MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS? 20M 80M 56M 55M 27M 25M 24M 3M 0M 0M PREMIER LEAGUE LALIGA SERIE A LIGUE BUNDESLIGA BUNDESLIGA PREMIER LEAGUE SERIE A LALIGA LIGUE BENCH TO PITCH HOW MUCH GAMETIME ARE THE PLAYERS GETTING? UP TO 20% UP TO 40% UP TO 60% UP TO 80% UP TO 00% UP TO 20% UP TO 40% UP TO 60% UP TO 80% UP TO 00% FLYING THE NEST HOW MANY PLAY FOR CLUBS OUTSIDE OF THEIR HOME NATION? 9 HOME AWAY 4 HOME AWAY 6

18 CONCLUSIONS There are many forces at play in this summer s transfer window that are set to make it one of the most exciting ever; the impact of the new Premier League broadcasting deal kicking in, the influx of high profile managers at many of England s top clubs, the huge spending potential of Chinese clubs and the economic uncertainty caused by Brexit to name just a few. One of the big deals done so far is the transfer of Renato Sanches from Benfica to Bayern Munich for 35m a fee backed up by our valuation. The teenager made a real impact at this summer s Euros, starring for a Portugal side that would go on to win the trophy for the first time in their history, and is tipped for big things at Bayern. Bayern are not the only German club investing in, or producing, top young talent at the time of publishing, this year s report shows that 9 of the top 20 most valuable U2 players in the world will play in the Bundesliga in 206/207, with 25% of the top 20 being of German nationality. This is a big swing from last year where they had less players in the top 20 than all the other big 5 European Leagues, highlighting not only the quality of players coming through in Germany but the willingness of German clubs to give young players a chance. In contrast to this is LaLiga, which despite consistent success on the pitch, providing the last three winners of both European competitions, surprisingly provides none of the players in the top 20. This may in part be down to the age criteria, with players like Saul Niguez and Jose Gimenez of Atletico Madrid valued highly but falling just outside the age range. With Spain getting to the final of this summer s U7 Euros, however, expect Spanish clubs to feature strongly again in next year s list. The Premier League again provide the most valuable player in our list and we see the inclusion of two of the league s stand out English performers from last season, Deli Alli and Marcus Rashford the latter featuring despite only really coming to prominence in the later part of the season because of the high percentage of minutes he played since coming into the team. One noticeable difference when comparing with last year s list is the switch from defence to attack; in 205 nine out the 20 in the list were defenders, with five in the top 0. In 206 there is only one defender featured, Niklas Süle of Hoffenheim, who features at no. 4. Let s hope this emphasis on attack is seen throughout the Olympics, where many of the world s best youngsters will feature, and then into the new season. Despite the lack of defenders, for the first time our list features a goalkeeper, in the shape of Gianluigi Donnarumma. The teenager, seen as heir apparent to Italian legend Gianluigi Buffon, was hugely impressive for AC Milan last season, showing composure well beyond his years and, at just 7, is sure to feature in this list for a few years to come. Whilst there has been a marked shift in player location and position within the report, the overall value of the top 20 remains high, in excess of 450m, and with more than a month left of the European window, several of the top 20 have been heavily tipped for a big move. Will the clubs agree with our valuations? Let s see what happens in the next edition of the Soccerex Transfer Review!

19 FURTHER RESOURCES In addition to the 20 U2 report, Soccerex and Prime Time Sport produce the bi-annual Soccerex Transfer Review which provides relevant data and insightful independent analysis on the variables that influence squad composition and player transfers throughout Europe s biggest clubs. Soccerex Summer Transfer Review 205 Key conclusions: 650m worth of players signed by Premier League sides over the last three seasons were only used in 50% or less of the total minutes of their club s season. Soccerex Winter Transfer Review 205/6 Key conclusions: Premier League side Watford spent more than any other team in Europe during the January transfer window with 43m invested on players. Seven of the top ten highest spending teams were Premier League sides and all three promoted teams featured in the top ten. 60% of the spending this season in the Premier League has been from clubs outside of the traditional top four compared with 47% in the Bundesliga, 44 per cent in Serie A and just 24% in La Liga. Manchester United ( 6m) and Tottenham ( 38m) topped the list of players that failed to succeed, spending a combined 300m on 2 players. Manchester City ( 73m), Liverpool ( 69m), Arsenal ( 47m) and Chelsea ( 45m) also spent highly on players who failed to deliver. Only five out of the ten highest summer expenditures resulted in League or Champions League success. Manchester City s capture of Raheem Sterling stands out as the most expensive English player ever in the Premier League ( 60m). The Chinese Super League (CSL) has broken the financial dominance of European Football in the transfer window, recording their biggest ever investment ( 202m) in players from top leagues - second only to the Premier League. Soccerex Summer Transfer Review 206 The next report, the Summer Transfer Review, will be revealed at the start of September ahead of the upcoming Soccerex Global Convention, 26th- 28th September in Manchester. The Convention will feature a special session looking at the state of the transfer market with Esteve Calzada, CEO, Prime Time Sport, being joined by a mix of former players and other key stakeholders to dissect the spending, player valuations and the different factors affecting the market.

20 GET IN TOUCH SOCCEREX T E W enquiry@soccerex.com soccerex.com PRIME TIME SPORT T E W info@primetimesport.com primetimesport.com FOOTBALL INDEX T E W jr.minguell@primetimesport.com primetimesport.com