Ohio Job Outlook. Employment Projections

Transcription

1 To Strengthen Ohio s Families through the Delivery of Integrated Solutions to Temporary Challenges 2022 Ohio Job Outlook Employment Projections

2 Table of Contents Overview... 2 Ohio Economic Trends... 3 Ohio Labor Force... 6 Ohio Industry Employment Industry Sectors High-Growth Industry Groups Most New Jobs Ohio Occupational Employment Fastest Growing Occupational Groups Occupational Groups with the Most New Jobs Occupations with the Most Annual Openings Self-Employment Education and Training Technical Notes Appendix Tables A Ohio Labor Force Estimates and Projections by Age and Gender B Ohio Businesses by Industry Sector C Ohio Employment Projections Report by Major Industry D Ohio Top 30 Industries with the Fastest Job Growth E Ohio Top 30 Industries with the Most New Jobs F Ohio Industry Employment Projections Report G Ohio Occupational Employment Projections by Occupational Group H Ohio s Fastest-Growing Occupations I Occupations in Ohio with the Most Annual Openings J Occupations with at Least 1,000 Self-Employed K Ohio Occupational Employment Projections Report L Ohio Occupational Education and Training Classifications

3 Overview Ohio Job Outlook to 2022 Employment projections are a key product of the Bureau of Labor Market Information. The bureau completes 10-year employment projections every two years and two-year employment projections annually. The projections are based on the most current data available at the time they are made; they are estimates of future employment if there are no changes in the current situation. People who use this information include individuals planning their education, training and careers; educational program planners developing training courses and curricula; administrators and legislators responsible for government policies; and business executives planning marketing and personnel strategies. This report presents Ohio employment projections from 2012 to It is divided into four sections. The Ohio Economic Trends section looks at how Ohio s population and per capita income have fared in relation to the national economy. The Ohio Labor Force section presents recent trends and projected changes in Ohio s labor force. The Ohio Industry Employment section presents employment projections for Ohio s goods-producing and service-providing industries. Finally, the Ohio Occupational Employment section presents employment projections for occupations and occupational groups. Overall, the Ohio economy is expected to add 455,000 jobs between 2012 and 2022, with an expected 178,000 job openings annually. The education and health care services industries are expected to add the most jobs, and a large portion of job growth will come from health care occupations. Read more to learn about the growth expectations for Ohio s labor force, industries and occupations. 2

4 Ohio Economic Trends From 1972 to 2012, employment in Ohio increased by more than 1.2 million jobs. Ohio employment peaked in 2000 with a little over 5.6 million jobs, as seen in Figure 1. Millions 6 Figure 1. Ohio Employment Source: Current Employment Statistics Changes in demand for specific goods and services affect the quantity of goods and services produced. At the local level, demand is affected by population and income. Ohio s population and per capita income have been growing more slowly than the national average. As shown in Figure 2, Ohio s population grew 6.4 percent from 1990 to 2012 while the U.S. population grew 25.8 percent. From 2000 to 2012, the national population grew 12.3 percent, but Ohio s population grew only 1.9 percent. For the same period, U.S. per capita income increased 45.6 percent while Ohio per capita income grew 42.8 percent. 1 This means Ohio s demand for goods and services is below the national average, which leads to slower employment growth. 1 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Per Capita Income, downloaded October

5 Figure 2. Population Growth as a Percentage from Percent of 1990 Population Ohio Population U.S. Population Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis In addition to slow population and income growth, Ohio has been hurt by declines in manufacturing employment, especially in motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts manufacturing, as shown in Figure 3. Since 1995, Ohio and the U.S. have had similar trends in manufacturing employment, with Ohio s manufacturing employment shrinking at a faster rate. Following the recession of 2007 to 2009, Ohio s manufacturing employment bottomed out at 621,000 in 2010, which was 59.7 percent of the 1995 level. In 2012, Ohio s manufacturing employment had partially recovered to 656,059, or 63.1 percent of the 1995 level. However, Ohio lost nearly 140,000 manufacturing jobs from 2006 to Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts manufacturing have experienced significant job loss in the past 10 years, but each industry is expected to add jobs from 2012 to Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information, Current Employment Statistics. 4

6 120.0 Figure 3. Manufacturing Employment as a Percentage from Percent of 1995 Employment Level Ohio Manufacturing Employment U.S. Manufacturing Employment Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information 5

7 Ohio Labor Force Ohio s slow population growth affects its economic growth; at the same time, changes in the labor force might affect the ability of employers to fill job openings. Figure 4 shows that while the total and working-age populations have been growing slowly, the labor force has been shrinking. The labor force includes those 16 and older who are either working or looking for work. It is projected to shrink from 5,717,000 to 5,627,000 from 2012 to 2022, a loss of 90,000 workers. Millions 14 Figure 4. Ohio Population and Labor Force Trends Population Working Age Population Labor Force Sources: Ohio Development Services Agency and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The growth of the working-age population, which consists of noninstitutionalized individuals 16 and older, and the shrinking labor force are expected to slow from 2012 to 2022, compared to 2002 to 2012, as shown in Figure 5. From 2002 to 2012, the working-age population grew 3.7 percent, and the labor force shrank 1.9 percent. From 2012 to 2022, the working age population is expected to grow only 0.9 percent, and the labor force is expected to shrink 1.6 percent. 6

8 Figure 5. Growth of Ohio Population and Labor Force 5% Working Age Population Labor Force 4% 3.7% 3% 2% 1% 0.9% 0% -1% -2% -1.9% -1.6% -3% Source: Ohio Development Services Agency and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The labor force participation rate is the proportion of individuals in the workingage population who are working or looking for work. In Ohio and nationally, labor force participation has declined in recent years, in part of because of aging Baby Boomers, who are counted as part of the working-age population regardless of whether they are still working. In Ohio, labor force participation is expected to fall from 63.4 percent of the working age population in 2012 to 61.8 percent by 2022, as shown in Figure 6. Labor force participation varies significantly by gender. Men have a higher labor force participation rate than women, but the participation rates for both have been dropping, as shown in Figure 6. Figure 7 shows how labor force participation rates began declining faster in 2008 because of the first wave of Baby Boomer retirements and the national recession. During recessions, when there are fewer jobs, some people may stop looking for work because they believe they will be unable to find jobs and leave the 7

9 workforce. Some of them may choose to enroll in school, stay in school longer, or care for children or elderly relatives. 80% 70% 60% Figure 6. Ohio Labor Force Participation Rates Trends by Gender 73.9% 69.4% % 66.9% 63.4% 61.8% 60.7% 57.8% 57.0% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 8

10 Figure 7. Labor Force Participation Rates Percent Ohio Males Females Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 8. Ohio Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group Age Total 67.0% 63.4% 61.8% % 60.1% 50.8% % 81.0% 80.2% % 40.5% 45.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor force participation also varies widely by age. People under 25 and older than 54 have lower participation rates than people between those ages. This is because many young people attend school instead of working, and many older people retire. The estimated participation rates for these age groups are shown in Figure 8. The participation rates of the 16-to-24 and 25-to-54 age groups declined from 2002 to 2012, and they are expected to decline further by Although significantly lower than the other age groups, labor force participation for those 55 and older increased from 2002 to 2012 and is expected to continue to increase. 9

11 Figure 9. Change in Labor Force by Age Groups, , , , , , , , ,000-75,000 25, , ,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Ohio s population is aging, which will affect the demographic composition of the labor force. Figure 9 shows the significant growth in the oldest age groups. Workers 55 and older are expected to grow by 280,000 (22.4 percent). Other age groups are expected to shrink. The 16-to-24 age group is expected to decline by 158,000 workers (18.4 percent); the prime age groups, from 25 to 54, are expected to drop by 248,000 workers (6.9 percent). In 2002, workers 55 and older accounted for 14.6 percent of the labor force. In 2012, they accounted for 21.9 percent of the labor force; by 2022, they are expected to grow to 27.2 percent of the labor force. Workers 25 to 54 accounted for 69.4 percent of the labor force in 2002, 63.1 percent in 2012, and are projected to decline to 59.7 percent by Workers 24 and younger accounted for 16.0 percent of the labor force in 2002, 15.4 percent in 2012, and are projected to drop to 12.5 percent of the labor force by See Appendix Table A for the complete labor force picture by gender and age group for 2002, 2012 and projected

12 Ohio Industry Employment This section shows projected employment changes for a variety of industry classifications. Business establishments are classified into industries according to the primary goods and services they produce or provide, using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For example, factories assembling cars are classified in the motor vehicle manufacturing industry, and supermarkets are in the grocery store industry. See Appendix Table B for examples of types of businesses by NAICS classification. NAICS has several levels of classification, each giving a more detailed picture of each industry. This report presents industry employment projections at the NAICS sector and industry-group levels to illustrate expected changes. 3 Industry Sectors: Industries typically are grouped in two broad categories: goodsproducing, which produce physical products, and service-providing, which are all other industries. The goods-producing industry sectors are agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; and manufacturing. The service-providing industry sectors are wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; utilities; information; finance and insurance; real estate and rental and leasing; professional, scientific and technical services 4 ; management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management and remediation services 5 ; educational services (private) 6 ; health care and social assistance; arts, entertainment and recreation; accommodation and food services; other services (except public administration); and government. 3 NAICS consists of the following industry levels: 11 supersectors (individual two-digit NAICS or several twodigit NAICS grouped together); 20 sectors (individual two-digit NAICS); 99 subsectors (three-digit NAICS); 312 industry groups (four-digit NAICS); 713 industries (five-digit NAICS); and 1,065 detailed NAICS (six-digit NAICS). 4 Short title, Professional and technical services used in charts / tables. 5 Short title, Administrative and waste services used in charts / tables. 6 Projections for state and local education employment are included under the government NAICS. 11

13 Figure 10. Ohio Industry Employment Outlook Goods-Producing Service-Providing 5,000,000 4,707,600 4,500,000 4,281,400 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , , , Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information Figure 10 details employment projections for goods-producing and serviceproviding industries. Overall, the number of jobs for Ohioans is expected to rise from million in 2012 to million by 2022, an increase of more than 455,000 jobs. Service-providing industries are expected to add 426,190 jobs, an increase of 10.0 percent. Goods-producing industries are expected to add 19,540 jobs, an increase of 2.1 percent. 7 Figure 11 shows the employment change expected for each industry sector between 2012 and Service-providing industries are denoted by a dark red bar; goods-producing industries have a gray bar. Among the goods-producing sectors, construction and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction are projected to grow by 41,000 jobs and 500 jobs, respectively. Manufacturing is projected to shrink. Growth among the service-providing sectors will be led by the health care and social assistance industry, which is expected to add more than 7 Self-employed and other workers whose jobs fall outside of traditional industry classifications are expected to add 9,300 jobs, an increase of 3.3 percent. 12

14 166,000 jobs, a 22.2 percent increase. The administrative and support and waste management and remediation services industry is expected to add more than 55,000 jobs. Professional, scientific, and technical services is expected to add more than 45,000 jobs. Among the service-providing industry sectors, information and utilities are expected to shrink. See Appendix Table C for industry projections by absolute and percent change. Figure 11. Ohio Employment Outlook by Industry Sector, Healthcare & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) Administrative & Waste Services (NAICS 56) Professional & Technical Services (NAICS 54) Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) Wholesale Trade (NAICS 42) Public Administration (NAICS 92) Other Services, Except Public Administration (NAICS 81) Educational Services, Private (NAICS 61) Finance and Insurance (NAICS 52) Transportation & Warehousing (NAICS 48-49) Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45) Real Estate & Rental & Leasing (NAICS 53) Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (NAICS 71) Management of Companies & Enterprises (NAICS 55) Information (NAICS 51) -2,400 Utilities (NAICS 22) -2,780 5,880 3,410 3,340 14,560 14,360 13,030 10,220 21,070 17,930 23,160 36,650 45,590 55, ,200-20,680-1,880 41,590 Construction (NAICS 23) 500 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction (NAICS 21) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (NAICS 11) Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) -50, , , ,000 Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information High-Growth Industry Groups: Within the sectors are industry groups of related industries; these industry groups within sectors can change in different ways. Figure 12 shows the 10 industry groups expected to grow the fastest from 2012 to Each is expected to grow between 31.6 and 45.0 percent. The fastestgrowing industry group is projected to be individual and family services (NAICS 6241), with an increase of 45.0 percent. This industry group is in the health care and social assistance sector. Three other fastest-growing industry groups also are in that sector: home health care services (NAICS 6216), with a 44.5 percent increase; other ambulatory health care services (NAICS 6219), with a 3.3 percent increase; and outpatient care centers (NAICS 6214), with a 31.6 percent increase. One reason for the growth in this sector is Ohio s aging population, as more Baby Boomers reach retirement age. Three other fast-growing industry groups are from 13

15 the wholesale trade sector: wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers (NAICS 4251); metal and mineral (except petroleum) merchant wholesalers (NAICS 4235); and beer, wine and distilled alcoholic beverage merchant wholesalers (NAICS 4248). See Appendix Table D for a list of the top 30 industry groups with the fastest expected growth. Figure 12. Top 10 Ohio Industry Groups with the Fastest Job Growth Individual and family services (NAICS 6241) Home health care services (NAICS 6216) 45.0% 44.5% Electronic markets and agents and brokers (NAICS 4250) Nonscheduled air transportation (NAICS 4812) Management and technical consulting services (NAICS 5416) Metal and mineral merchant wholesalers (NAICS 4235) Other specialty trade contractors (NAICS 2389) Other ambulatory health care services (NAICS 6219) Alcoholic beverage merchant wholesalers (NAICS 4248) Outpatient care centers (NAICS 6214) 39.0% 38.4% 37.3% 36.8% 32.3% 32.3% 32.2% 31.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information Most New Jobs: Although some industry groups are expected to experience a high percentage of job growth, the groups themselves may be small and, therefore, offer a smaller number of jobs. By the same token, large industry groups with lower expected percentage growths may offer a large number of additional jobs. This is illustrated in Figure 13 by private hospitals 8 (NAICS 6220). This industry group employed more than 239,000 workers in 2012; it is expected to add more than 33,000 jobs by 2022, a 14.2 percent increase. Restaurants and other eating places (NAICS 7225), which employed more than 368,000 workers in 2012, are expected to add more than 32,000 jobs by 2022, an 8.7 percent increase. The 10 industry groups projected to add the most new jobs are shown in Figure 13; they are expected to add 221,900, or 50 percent of, new jobs by See Appendix Table E for a complete list of the top 30 private-sector industries with the most new jobs. 8 Private hospital employment projections were created by separating the subsector data by ownership. State and local hospital employment projections are included under the NAICS government industry sector. 14

16 Figure 13. Ohio Industries Adding the Most New Jobs, Hospitals, private (NAICS 6220) Employment services (NAICS 5613) Restaurants and other eating places (NAICS 7225) 34,000 32,600 32,100 Home health care services (NAICS 6216) 26,600 Individual and family services (NAICS 6241) Offices of physicians (NAICS 6211) Building equipment contractors (NAICS 2382) Nursing care facilities (NAICS 6231) Computer systems design & related services (NAICS 5415) Electronic markets & agents and brokers (NAICS 4251) 20,400 19,100 15,600 15,000 13,600 12,900 Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 See Appendix Table F for a complete look at industry projections by NAICS classification levels. 15

17 Ohio Occupational Employment The employment outlook for individual occupations is affected by the industries that employ them. Some occupations, such as registered nurses and structural iron workers, are highly concentrated in a few industries; demand for those occupations depends on the health of those industries. Other occupations, such as secretaries and computer systems analysts, are present in many industries; demand for those occupations is more closely tied to changes in the economy as a whole. Changes in technology, business practices and operations affect how employers structure staffing to improve productivity. For example, technological advances will continue to reduce the need for such occupations as telephone operators, typists, travel agents and order clerks. Understanding the employment outlook of occupations is important for career planning. Some occupations are expected to grow; others are expected to shrink. This section presents the job outlook in Ohio by type of work and required education and training levels. Occupations are classified using the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system, which has 22 groups of occupations with related types of work. For example, one occupational group consists of managerial occupations. Within each occupational group are specific occupations, each with different requirements for knowledge, skills, abilities and duties. See Appendix Table G for a comprehensive look at occupational projections by occupational group. Ohio is expected to add 455,000 jobs from 2012 to 2022, but perhaps more important to individuals searching for jobs is the expected number of annual job openings. On average, Ohio s economy is expected to have almost 178,000 job openings annually. About 30 percent of annual job openings will come from the creation of new jobs; the remaining 70 percent will result from the need to replace workers who switch occupations or leave the labor force, usually upon retirement. 16

18 Fastest-Growing Occupational Groups: Figure 14 shows the projected fastestgrowing occupational groups. Healthcare support occupations are expected to grow the most, at 24.1 percent. The next-fastest growing occupational group is healthcare practitioners and technical occupations, at 16.8 percent. The two fastest-growing occupational groups are in the health care and social assistance sector. See Appendix Table H for a list of the fastest-growing occupations. Figure 14. Ohio Rate of Employment Change by Major Occupational Group, Healthcare Support Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Construction & Extraction Computer & Mathematical Community & Social Service Personal Care & Service Education, Training & Library Legal Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Business & Financial Operations Food Preparation & Serving Related Transportation & Material Moving Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media Installation, Maintenance & Repair Life, Physical & Social Science Management Protective Service Office & administrative support Sales & Related Architecture & Engineering Production Farming, Fishing & Forestry 0.7% 16.8% 16.0% 14.7% 13.7% 13.5% 11.8% 10.8% 9.6% 9.5% 8.7% 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 6.6% 5.5% 4.8% 4.6% 3.5% 3.4% -5.4% Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information 24.1% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Occupational Groups with the Most New Jobs: As with industries, fast-growing occupational groups may be relatively small and may not add as many new jobs as larger groups that are growing more slowly. The healthcare practitioners and technical occupations group is expected to add 58,970 jobs, and the healthcare support occupations group is expected to add 50,700 jobs. Nearly a quarter of new jobs will be in these healthcare occupational groups. Figure 15 shows the major occupational groups ranked in terms of number of jobs. 17

19 Figure 15. Projected Employment Change by Occupational Group, Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Healthcare Support Food Preparation & Serving Related Education, Training & Library Office & Administrative Support Construction & Extraction Transportation & Materal Moving Business & Financial Operations Computer & Mathematical Personal Care & Service Management Sales & Related Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Installation, Maintenance & Repair Community & Social Service Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media Protective Service Legal Production Architecture & Engineering Life, Physical & Social Science Farming, Fishing & Forestry 29,560 29,280 23,800 19,940 19,740 19,430 19,210 18,010 15,210 12,170 6,060 5,380 3,910 3,160 3,000 2, Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information Occupations with the Most Annual Openings: New job growth is one component of occupational demand, but replacement needs result in a larger number of job openings. About 70 percent of the job openings from 2012 to 2022 are expected to result from the need to replace workers who leave the labor force or switch occupations. Even shrinking occupations have replacement needs, and they may provide substantial opportunities for employment. Figure 16 shows the top 10 occupations with the most projected annual openings. Of the top 10, combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food (SOC ) leads with an expected 7,377 annual openings. Rounding out the top five are retail salespersons (SOC ); cashiers (SOC ); laborers and freight, stock and material movers, hand (SOC ); and waiters and waitresses (SOC ). These occupations typically pay close to minimum wage. However, higher-paying occupations also can be found in the top 10. These include registered nurses (SOC ); elementary school teachers, except special education (SOC ); accountants and auditors (SOC ); general and operations managers (SOC ); and secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education (SOC ) ,700 37,760 37,640 50,700 58,970-10, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

20 Figure 16. Occupations in Ohio with the Most Projected Annual Openings, Annual Avg. Wage*, Occupational Title Openings May 13 Comb. Food Prep. & Serv. Work, inc. Fast Food (SOC ) 7,377 $8.75 Retail Salespersons (SOC ) 5,471 $9.69 Cashiers (SOC ) 5,246 $8.99 Laborers/Freight/Stock/Material Movers, Hand (SOC ) 4,448 $10.85 Waiters and Waitresses (SOC ) 4,332 $8.76 Home Health Aides (SOC ) 4,281 $9.60 Registered Nurses (SOC ) 4,271 $29.10 Customer Service Representatives (SOC ) 2,824 $14.98 Office Clerks, General (SOC ) 2,578 $13.36 Nursing Assistants (SOC ) 2,373 $11.41 *Average wage dollar amount per hour. Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information The annual openings data tells another story. Appendix Table I shows the top 30 occupations with the most annual openings. Two occupations among the top 30 are expected to shrink in terms of annual employment levels. The stock clerks and order fillers (SOC ) occupation is expected to shrink 5.3 percent by 2022, but it is expected to have more than 2,242 annual job openings. Cashiers (SOC ) is expected to shrink 1.3 percent but have more than 5,200 annual openings. Even when an occupation is shrinking, it may have a large number of annual openings to replace workers who leave the labor force or the occupation. Shrinking occupations are expected to account for more than 21,000 annual job openings. Self-Employment: The number of self-employed individuals varies widely by occupation. Appendix Table J provides a list of the 59 occupations that have at least 1,000 self-employed workers. The self-employed percentage ranges from less than 1 percent for cashiers (SOC ) to 97.9 percent for door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers (SOC ). Figure 17 shows occupations in which more than half the people employed in that occupation are self-employed. 19

21 Figure 17. Occupations with High Self-Employment, 2012 Percent 2012 Self- Self- Occupational Title Employment Employed Employed* Door-to-Door Sales Workers, News/Street Vendors, & Related Workers (SOC ) 2,340 2, % Barbers (SOC ) 1,480 1, % Writers and Authors (SOC ) 3,520 2, % Photographers (SOC ) 5,210 3, % Managers, All Other (SOC ) 25,160 15, % Art Directors (SOC ) 2,400 1, % Construction Managers (SOC ) 18,500 10, % Real Estate Sales Agents (SOC ) 6,840 3, % First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Landscaping/Lawn Service/Groundskeeping (SOC ) 6,900 3, % Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information Education and Training: Each occupation has typical education levels associated with it, although in practice workers in the occupation may have a range of educational experience. Some occupations have specific requirements associated with licensure or certification. Knowledge of the typical education levels associated with occupations can be useful for career planning and job seeking. Figure 18 shows the distribution of jobs by their typical education level in That year, almost 70 percent of all jobs had a typical education level of a high school diploma or less. About 30 percent of jobs had a typical education level of some form of post-secondary education. This could be anything from a certificate to an advanced degree. About 20 percent of jobs had a bachelor s degree or higher as a typical education. Figure Employment by Typical Education Levels Doctoral or professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Postsecondary non-degree award Some college, no degree High school diploma or equivalent Less than high school 137,040 84, , ,430 60, ,530 1,442,850 2,217, ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information 20

22 Figure 19 shows projected net job growth by education level. Fifty-three percent of the net job growth from 2012 to 2022 is expected to be in occupations typically associated with a high school diploma or less. Forty-seven percent of net job growth is anticipated in occupations typically associated with some form of postsecondary education. A predicted 28 percent of job growth will be in occupations typically associated with a bachelor s degree or higher. This is a small shift toward occupations associated with higher education levels. Figure 19. Projected Net Job Growth by Education Level, Doctoral or professional degree Master's degree 18,859 14,127 Bachelor's degree 92,736 Associate's degree Postsecondary non-degree award 36,337 43,880 Some college, no degree 6,883 High school diploma or equivalent Less than high school 122, , ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , ,000 Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information Despite this expected shift, an anticipated 67 percent of annual job openings still will be in occupations associated with a high school diploma or less. See Figure

23 Figure 20. Estimated Annual Job Openings by Education Level, Doctoral or professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Postsecondary non-degree award Some college, no degree High school diploma or equivalent Less than high school 4,610 3,106 8,640 11,952 1,936 27,785 59,535 56, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Source: Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information For detailed data regarding annual openings for occupations with employment of 100 or more, see Appendix Table K. This table also includes employment, wage, and education and training information. Appendix Table L provides a detailed list of the educational and training classifications for all occupations. 22

24 Technical Notes NAICS has several classification levels, each giving a more detailed picture of an industry. The levels include 11 supersectors (individual two-digit NAICS or several two-digit NAICS grouped together), 20 sectors (individual two-digit NAICS), 99 subsectors (three-digits NAICS), 312 industry groups (four-digit NAICS), 713 industries (five-digit NAICS) and 1,065 detailed NAICS (six-digit NAICS). Industry employment projections were made at the four-digit NAICS industry level using a variety of models, including single-equation regression models. These models related Ohio industry employment to national industry employment and other key economic determinants for Ohio, especially income and population. Projections for private educational services were derived by separating projections data by private and public sector ownership. In the same manner, private hospital employment projections were created by separating the subsector data by ownership. State and local educational services and hospital employment projections are included under the NAICS government industry sector. Occupational estimates were derived by creating an industry-occupation matrix using industry staffing patterns developed from data supplied by Ohio employers in Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) surveys. Occupations are classified at the six-digit SOC level. Industry staffing patterns were adjusted for expected technological change and other factors from national data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Net annual replacement needs were estimated using replacement rates developed by the BLS. For more information about replacement rates, see Although these rates have proven to be reliable estimates of Ohio's replacement needs for specific occupations, additional openings may result from turnover. Wage estimates were based on Ohio s OES surveys. Median wage estimates were made across all levels of experience and across all industries that employ an occupation. The usual education levels associated with occupations were based on national data provided by the BLS. The accuracy of employment projections is subject to error because of the many unknown factors that will affect the economy over the projection period. Furthermore, although employment projections and related job outlook information can greatly inform career decisions, they should not be the sole basis for a choice of career. 23

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26 Appendix Tables 25

27 Appendix Table A Ohio Labor Force Estimates, , and Projections to 2022, by Age and Gender Age and Civilian NI 2002 Civilian Labor Force Civilian NI 2012 Civilian Labor Force Civilian NI 2022 Civilian Labor Force Sex Pop. 16+ Number Share LFPR Pop. 16+ Number Share LFPR Pop. 16+ Number Share LFPR Total Total 8,701 5, % 67.0% 9,022 5, % 63.4% 9,099 5, % 61.8% , % 66.5% 1, % 60.1% 1, % 50.8% % 53.6% % 41.1% % 28.0% % 77.9% % 75.7% % 68.9% ,468 1, % 85.0% 1,389 1, % 82.9% 1,416 1, % 80.9% ,737 1, % 84.6% 1,377 1, % 81.9% 1,362 1, % 81.2% ,599 1, % 83.1% 1,696 1, % 78.2% 1,409 1, % 78.6% , % 59.7% 1, % 62.0% 1,590 1, % 68.4% 65+ 1, % 13.4% 1, % 19.9% 1, % 22.8% Male Total 4,133 3, % 73.9% 4,333 3, % 69.4% 4,387 2, % 66.9% % 65.4% % 60.0% % 51.9% % 49.5% % 40.3% % 28.5% % 79.8% % 76.8% % 70.3% % 92.9% % 89.6% % 87.3% % 91.0% % 88.0% % 88.4% % 90.4% % 84.4% % 82.4% % 67.1% % 66.9% % 70.7% % 19.1% % 25.3% % 27.4% Female Total 4,568 2, % 60.7% 4,690 2, % 57.8% 4,712 2, % 57.0% % 67.7% % 60.2% % 49.6% % 57.6% % 41.9% % 27.5% % 76.2% % 74.8% % 67.2% % 77.3% % 76.1% % 74.3% % 78.3% % 76.4% % 74.3% % 76.1% % 72.1% % 74.7% % 53.1% % 57.4% % 66.3% % 9.5% % 16.1% 1, % 19.2% Age of Baby Boomers: 44 to to to 82 * Based on unrounded data. ** The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) projected for Ohio is an average of the Ohio historical trend and the projected national change for the U.S. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is the labor force participation rate which is the proportion of the civilian labor force to the civilian noninstitutional population for each cell. Sources: Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment, 2002 and 2012, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, Bureau of Labor Market Information,

28 Appendix Table B Ohio Businesses by Industry Sector GOODS-PRODUCING (PRIVATE) MINING & LOGGING (NAICS 11, 21) Mining and support activities, oil and gas extraction, cutting and transporting timber CONSTRUCTION (NAICS 23) Construction of buildings; heavy and civil engineering (bridges, roads); and specialty trade contractors (pouring concrete, site preparation, plumbing, painting, and electrical work) MANUFACTURING (NAICS 31-33) Durable Goods Nonmetal and metal products, machinery, computers and electronics, appliances, transportation equipment, furniture, medical, and wood products Non-durable Goods Food, printing, chemicals (toiletries), plastics, textiles, paper, apparel, leather, petroleum, and coal products SERVICE-PROVIDING (PRIVATE) TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, and UTILITIES (NAICS 22, 42, 48) Wholesale Trade Wholesalers of durable and nondurable goods, business to business electronic markets, and sales representatives Retail Trade Auto dealers, building and garden supply centers, furniture, electronic, appliance, food, health, gasoline, clothing, sporting, hobby, book, and music stores Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Transportation (air, rail, water, truck, transit, pipeline, scenic, and sightseeing); private postal services, couriers, warehousing, and storage; utilities (power, natural gas distribution, water, and sewage) INFORMATION (NAICS 51) Publishing, motion picture, sound recording, broadcasting, phone services, data processing and hosting, news, libraries, and internet FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES (NAICS 52, 53) Finance and Insurance Banks, securities, insurance, funds, and trusts Real Estate, Rental, & Leasing Real estate agents; rental and leasing of automobiles, consumer goods, and machine PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES (NAICS 54, 55, 56) Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services Legal services, accounting, bookkeeping, architectural, engineering, design, computer system design, scientific research, advertising, marketing, photography, translation, and veterinary Management of Companies and Enterprises Holding companies, corporate offices, and management offices Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt. Services Administrative management (hotel management) and facilities support; employment placement, executive search, temporary help, and professional employer organizations; document preparation, telephone call centers, collection agencies, travel arrangement, security, pest control, janitorial, landscaping, carpet cleaning, packing and labeling, trade show organizer, and auctioneers EDUCATIONAL & HEALTH SERVICES (NAICS 61, 62) Educational Services Private schools and universities and support services for education (college selection, test preparation, and guidance counseling) Health Care & Social Assistance Private ambulatory health, hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social assistance (care for children, elderly, and disabled, emergency relief, vocational and rehabilitation services) LEISURE & HOSPITALITY (NAICS 71, 72) Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Performing arts, spectator sports, museums, historical sites, zoos, parks, amusement, and gambling Accommodation & Food Services Hotels, RV parks, food, and drinking places OTHER SERVICES (NAICS 81) Repair (autos, electronics, machinery, and appliances); personal (hair, nail, skin, weight reduction, and tattoos); funeral homes; dry-cleaning and laundry services; pet care, parking lots, astrology, coin machines, dating, escort, future telling, life coaching, and personal fitness trainer; associations (churches, grant making, social advocacy,and unions) GOVERNMENT (PUBLIC) Federal Government Civilian federal employees including the U.S. Postal Service State Government Includes state universities and hospitals Local Government Includes local schools, community colleges, and local hospitals; township, city, and county employees such as fire fighters and park rangers 27

29 Appendix Table C Ohio Employment Projections Report by Major Industry, Change in Percent Annual Projected Employment Change Industry Title Employment Employment Total 5,502,100 5,957, , % Goods-Producing Industries 938, ,100 19, % Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 89,660 87,780-1, % Mining 12,240 12, % Construction 180, ,210 41, % Manufacturing 656, ,360-20, % Service-Providing Industries 4,281,410 4,707, , % Utilities 19,090 16,310-2, % Wholesale trade 223, ,820 23, % Retail trade 559, ,950 10, % Transportation and warehousing 169, ,690 13, % Information 74,500 72,100-2, % Finance and insurance 222, ,790 14, % Real estate and rental and leasing 57,940 63,820 5, % Professional and technical services 241, ,280 45, % Management of companies and enterprises 127, ,000 3, % Administrative and waste services 302, ,710 55, % Educational services, private 93, ,170 14, % Health care and social assistance 747, , , % Arts, entertainment and recreation 67,630 71,040 3, % Accommodation and food services 432, ,710 36, % Other services, except public administration 231, ,070 17, % Government 710, ,500 21, % Self-employed, private household and unpaid family workers 282, ,450 9, % 28

30 Appendix Table D Ohio's Top 30 Industries with the Fastest Job Growth, Change in Percent NAICS Annual Projected Employment Change Code Industry Title Employment Employment Individual and family services 45,400 65,840 20, % 6216 Home health care services 59,690 86,280 26, % 425 Electronic markets and agents and brokers 33,000 45,860 12, % 4812 Nonscheduled air transportation 6,070 8,400 2, % 5416 Management and technical consulting services 25,280 34,720 9, % 4235 Metal and mineral merchant wholesalers 9,860 13,490 3, % 2389 Other specialty trade contractors 16,640 22,020 5, % 6219 Other ambulatory health care services 12,200 16,140 3, % 4248 Alcoholic beverage merchant wholesalers 5,370 7,100 1, % 6214 Outpatient care centers 25,900 34,080 8, % 5611 Office administrative services 15,680 20,620 4, % 2371 Utility system construction 11,030 14,340 3, % 6233 Community care facilities for the elderly 33,550 43,510 9, % 6213 Offices of other health practitioners 29,340 37,640 8, % 2361 Residential building construction 16,930 21,610 4, % 3323 Architectural and structural metals manufacturing 15,780 20,130 4, % 6215 Medical and diagnostic laboratories 7,380 9,400 2, % 2362 Nonresidential building construction 23,450 29,570 6, % 5415 Computer systems design and related services 52,240 65,860 13, % 2382 Building equipment contractors 60,140 75,690 15, % 4533 Used merchandise stores 6,390 7,980 1, % 5613 Employment services 131, ,200 32, % 3219 Other wood product manufacturing 8,280 10,290 2, % 3273 Cement and concrete product manufacturing 5,250 6,520 1, % 5419 Other professional, scientific, and technical services 23,280 28,800 5, % 5414 Specialized design services 6,000 7,400 1, % 6211 Offices of physicians 83, ,770 19, % 6244 Child day care services 30,250 36,740 6, % 6232 Residential mental health facilities 28,500 34,390 5, % 5614 Business support services 36,600 43,870 7, % 29

31 Appendix Table E Ohio's Top 30 Industries with the Most New Jobs, Change in Percent NAICS Annual Projected Employment Change Code Industry Title Employment Employment Hospitals, private 239, ,800 33, % 5613 Employment services 131, ,200 32, % 7225 Restaurants and other eating places 368, ,180 32, % 6216 Home health care services 59,690 86,280 26, % 6241 Individual and family services 45,400 65,840 20, % 6211 Offices of physicians 83, ,770 19, % 2382 Building equipment contractors 60,140 75,690 15, % 6231 Nursing care facilities 101, ,020 15, % 5415 Computer systems design and related services 52,240 65,860 13, % 4251 Electronic markets and agents and brokers 33,000 45,860 12, % 6233 Continuing care facilities for the elderly 33,550 43,510 9, % 5416 Management and technical consulting services 25,280 34,720 9, % 6213 Offices of other health practitioners 29,340 37,640 8, % 6214 Outpatient care centers 25,900 34,080 8, % 3363 Motor vehicle parts manufacturing 61,380 68,930 7, % 5614 Business support services 36,600 43,870 7, % 5413 Architectural and engineering services 39,200 45,840 6, % 6244 Child day care services 30,250 36,740 6, % 5617 Services to buildings and dwellings 64,700 71,100 6, % 493 Warehousing and storage 37,030 43,220 6, % 2362 Nonresidential building construction 23,450 29,570 6, % 6232 Residential mental health facilities 28,500 34,390 5, % 5242 Insurance agencies, brokerages and related 36,030 41,580 5, % 5419 Other professional and technical services 23,280 28,810 5, % 2389 Other specialty trade contractors 16,640 22,020 5, % 6212 Offices of dentists 31,090 36,130 5, % 4461 Health and personal care stores 36,170 41,170 5, % 8131 Religious organizations 71,960 76,910 4, % 5611 Office administrative services 15,680 20,620 4, % 2361 Residential building construction 16,930 21,610 4, % *Industries expected to have the most new jobs and growth rates of at least 25 percent. 30

32 Appendix Table F Ohio's Industry Employment Projections Report, * 2022* Change in Percent NAICS Annual Projected Employment Change Code Industry Title Employment Employment Total All Industries 5,502,100 5,957, , % Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 89,660 87,780-1, % Mining 12,240 12, % 212 Mining (except Oil and Gas) 5,770 5, % Utilities 19,090 16,310-2, % 2211 Power Generation and Supply 14,000 11,950-2, % Construction 180, ,210 41, % 236 Construction of Buildings 40,380 51,180 10, % 2361 Residential Building Construction 16,930 21,610 4, % 2362 Nonresidential Building Construction 23,450 29,570 6, % 237 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 21,730 26,190 4, % 2371 Utility System Construction 11,030 14,340 3, % 2373 Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction 8,600 9, % 238 Specialty Trade Contractors 118, ,840 26, % 2381 Building foundation and exterior contractors 23,740 26,410 2, % 2382 Building Equipment Contractors 60,140 75,690 15, % 2383 Building Finishing Contractors 17,990 20,730 2, % 2389 Other Specialty Trade Contractors 16,640 22,020 5, % Manufacturing 656, ,360-20, % 311 Food Manufacturing 56,090 53,740-2, % 3114 Fruit and Vegetable Preserving and Specialty 11,980 12, % 3115 Dairy Product Manufacturing 7,330 6,140-1, % 3116 Animal Slaughtering and Processing 10,400 10, % 3118 Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing 12,510 11, % 3119 Other Food Manufacturing 7,270 6, % 312 Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 6,570 6, % 321 Wood Product Manufacturing 11,190 13,830 2, % 3219 Other Wood Product Manufacturing 8,280 10,290 2, % 322 Paper Manufacturing 19,150 16,290-2, % 3222 Converted Paper Product Manufacturing 16,080 13,810-2, % 323 Printing and Related Support Activities 21,780 20,270-1, % 325 Chemical Manufacturing 44,140 41,890-2, % 3251 Basic Chemical Manufacturing 10,200 9, % 3252 Resin, Rubber and Artificial Fibers Manufacturing 5,640 6, % 3254 Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing 5,580 5, % 3255 Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing 7,410 6,130-1, %

33 2012* 2022* Change in Percent NAICS Annual Projected Employment Change Code Industry Title Employment Employment Soap, Cleaning Compound, and Toiletry Manufacturing 8,010 7, % 326 Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 52,950 47,000-5, % 3261 Plastics Product Manufacturing 39,900 37,030-2, % 3262 Rubber Product Manufacturing 13,050 9,970-3, % 327 Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 25,360 25, % 3272 Glass and Glass Product Manufacturing 7,650 6,010-1, % 3273 Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing 5,250 6,520 1, % 3279 Other Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 7,000 7, % 331 Primary Metal Manufacturing 39,680 36,750-2, % 3311 Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing 10,020 9, % 3312 Steel Product Manufacturing from Purchased Steel 7,650 7, % 3315 Foundries 13,050 12, % 332 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 103, ,160 3, % 3321 Forging and Stamping 11,220 10, % 3323 Architectural and Structural Metals 15,780 20,130 4, % Boiler, Tank, and Shipping Container Manufacturing 8,450 8, % Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing 25,380 27,150 1, % Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating, and Allied Activities 12,740 13, % 3329 Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 22,620 21,500-1, % 333 Machinery Manufacturing 74,020 65,850-8, % 3331 Agriculture, Construction, and Mining Machinery Manufacturing 5,740 5, % 3332 Industrial Machinery Manufacturing 8,620 6,740-1, % 3334 Ventilation, Heating, Air-Conditioning, and Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Manufacturing 7,030 6, % 3335 Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing 21,880 15,610-6, % 3339 Other General Purpose Machinery Manufacturing 23,180 24,950 1, % 334 Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 20,520 18,130-2, % 3344 Appendix Table F (continued) Ohio's Industry Employment Projections Report, Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing 6,410 5, % 32