In Demand Jobs: US Projections, Richard Holden BLS Regional Commissioner San Diego, CA March 6, 2014

Transcription

1 In Demand Jobs: US Projections, Richard Holden BLS Regional Commissioner San Diego, CA March 6, 2014

2 Overview US Employment, California, and San Diego Industry employment Occupational employment Resources for additional information 2

3 About the BLS The BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics The BLS mission is to collect, process, analyze and disseminate data BLS is an independent statistical agency. It serves its diverse user communities by providing products and services that are objective, timely, accurate, and relevant. Users include the American public, Congress, Federal agencies, state and local governments, businesses, labor organizations 3

4 Voluntary Cooperation Nearly all of our surveys are voluntary Confidentiality is as important to the Bureau as it is to respondents We do our best to reduce respondent burden Without the cooperation of the people who participate in its surveys people like you the Bureau of Labor Statistics could not provide highquality information about the economy to you We greatly appreciate the cooperation of our survey respondents. Thank You!! 4

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6 Percent Change in Employment from the Year % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% United States California San Diego County Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted. 6

7 12-month Percent Change in Employment United States California San Diego County Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted. 7

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11 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) 1 Civilian unemployment rate Seasonally adjusted, Percent January 2014 Level: Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, February 7, 2014.

12 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) 3 Civilian labor force participation rate Seasonally adjusted, Percent January 2014 Level: Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, February 7, 2014.

13 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) Percent Long term unemployed as a percent of total unemployed Seasonally adjusted, January 2014 Level: Percent unemployed 27 weeks and over Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, February 7, 2014.

14 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) Percent Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment Seasonally adjusted, Less than a high school diploma High school graduates, no college Some college or associate degree Bachelor's degree and higher Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, February 7, 2014.

15 Employment Projections Background 10-year projections made every 2 years projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries BLS projections prepared at the national level only 15

16 Employment Projections Products Occupational Outlook Handbook Occupational Outlook Quarterly Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation Technical materials replacement rates, education and training categories, and more 16

17 Labor Force Participation Rates Percent Men Total Women 57.7 [VALUE] Projected

18 Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected In thousands of people , , , , , ,749 18

19 Real Gross Domestic Product Growth 10-year compound annual rate of change 6 4 Projected 2.6% over Projected Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics 19

20 Unemployment Rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 5.4% 4% 2% 0% Assumption

21 Inflation Rate Annual rate of change GDP Price Index 7.6% 3.4% 3.3% 1.9% 2.3% 1.8% Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics 21

22 Housing Starts: 1962 to 2012 and Projected 2022 (Thousands of units) 2,500 Recession year 2,000 1,900 1,500 1, Projected 2022 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics 22

23 Employment Outlook: Industry Employment 23

24 Employment Millions of jobs Projected 2022 Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment 24

25 Employment Growth Projections 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 14.3% 16.3% 19.1% 10.8% 5.0% 0.0% United States California San Diego County United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information Division 25

26 Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Construction Leisure and hospitality Retail trade State and local government Financial activities Educational services Other services Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing Mining Utilities Information Federal government Thousands of wage and salary jobs 1, , , , ,482.8 Service providing Goods producing Manufacturing 26

27 Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Health care and social assistance Construction Educational services Professional and business services Mining Other services Financial activities Leisure and hospitality Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing Retail trade State and local government Information Manufacturing Utilities Federal government 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% -0.2% -0.5% -1.1% -1.6% 2.6% 2.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% Total nonagricultural wage and salary annual growth= 1.0% Service providing Goods producing 27

28 Employment Outlook: Occupational Employment 28

29 Percent Change vs. Numeric Change Percent employment growth in two occupations, projected Audiologists Retail salespersons 9.8% 33.6% Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected , in thousands Audiologists Retail salespersons

30 Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Projected Average= 10.8% Healthcare support Healthcare practitioners and technical Construction and extraction Personal care and service Computer and mathematical Community and social service Business and financial operations Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance Education, training, and library Legal Life, physical, and social science 12.5% 12.5% 11.1% 10.7% 10.1% 21.5% 21.4% 20.9% 18.0% 17.2% 28.1% (Continued on next slide) 30

31 Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Projected Installation, maintenance, and repair Food preparation and serving related Transportation and material moving Protective service Architecture and engineering Sales and related Management Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media Office and administrative support Production 0.8% 9.6% 9.4% 8.6% 7.9% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.0% 6.8% (Continued) Average, all occupations = 10.8% Farming, fishing, and forestry -3.4% 31

32 Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected Healthcare practitioners and technical Office and administrative support Construction and extraction Healthcare support Personal care and service Food preparation and serving related Sales and related Education, training, and library Business and financial operations Transportation and material moving Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 1, , , , , , , , (Continued on next slide) 32

33 Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected (Continued) Computer and mathematical Management Installation, maintenance, and repair Community and social service Protective service Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media Architecture and engineering Legal Life, physical, and social science Production Farming, fishing, and forestry

34 Employment Growth vs. Replacement Needs Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected , in thousands Registered nurses Cashiers Job openings for two occupations, projected , in thousands From growth Replacement needs Registered nurses ,052.6 Cashiers , ,

35 Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected Office and administrative support Sales and related Food preparation and serving related Healthcare practitioners and technical Transportation and material moving Education, training, and library Management Construction and extraction Business and financial operations Personal care and service Production 3, , , , , , , , , , ,509.7 Growth Replacement needs (Continued on next slide) 35

36 Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected (Continued) Healthcare support Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance Installation, maintenance, and repair Computer and mathematical Protective service Community and social service Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media Architecture and engineering Life, physical, and social science Legal Farming, fishing, and forestry 1, , , , , Growth Replacement needs 36

37 Fastest Growing Occupations Industrial-organizational psychologists Percent change, projected Personal care aides Home health aides Insulation workers, mechanical Interpreters and translators Diagnostic medical sonographers Helpers--brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters Occupational therapy assistants Genetic counselors Physical therapist assistants 53.4% 48.8% 48.5% 46.7% 46.1% 46.0% 43.0% 42.6% 41.2% 41.0% Median annual wages, May 2012 $83,580 $19,910 $20,820 $39,170 $45,430 $65,860 $28,220 $53,240 $56,800 $52,160 37

38 Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected Personal care aides Registered nurses Retail salespersons Home health aides Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food Nursing assistants Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive Customer service representatives Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners Construction laborers Median annual wages, May $19,910 $65,470 $21,110 $20,820 $18,260 $24,420 $32,410 $30,580 $22,320 $29,990 38

39 Occupations with the Most Job Openings Thousands of job openings, projected Retail salespersons Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food Cashiers Waiters and waitresses Registered nurses 1, , , , ,052.6 Median annual wages, May 2012 $21,110 $18,260 $18,970 $18,540 $65,470 Customer service representatives Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand Office clerks, general Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners Personal care aides Growth Replacement needs $30,580 $23,890 $27,470 $22,320 $19,910 39

40 Fastest Declining Occupations Median annual wages, May 2012 Percent change, projected $35,250 $44,920 $24,310 $53,090 $32,880 $53,090 $33,020 $24,050 $56,490 $19, % -42.0% -35.3% -31.8% -31.6% -29.8% -27.1% -27.1% -26.8% -26.5% Fallers Locomotive firers Shoe machine operators and tenders Postal service clerks Log graders and scalers Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators Semiconductor processors Textile cutting machine setters, operators, and tenders Postal service mail carriers Motion picture projectionists 40

41 Occupations with the Largest Employment Declines Median annual wages, May 2012 Thousands of jobs, projected $69, Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers $56,490 $28,010 $21,270 $53,090 $18,670 $35,270 $53,090 $32,400 $28, Postal service mail carriers Data entry keyers Sewing machine operators Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators Farmworkers and laborers, crop, nursery, and greenhouse Word processors and typists Postal service clerks Reservation and transportation ticket agents and travel clerks Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 41

42 California Occupational Projections: LARGEST JOB GROWTH Percent Increase Numeric Gain Personal Care Aides 138, Retail Salespersons 103, Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 73, Cashiers 64, Waiters and Waitresses 59, Registered Nurses 54, Office Clerks, General 51, Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 45, Customer Service Representatives 36, Home Health Aides 32, Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information Division

43 California Occupational Projections: FASTEST JOB GROWTH Numeric Gain Percent Increase Biomedical Engineers 2, Home Health Aides 32, Helpers--Carpenters 1, Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 24, Helpers--Brick masons, Block masons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters 1, Personal Care Aides 138, Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 6, Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists 11, Curators Marriage and Family Therapists 4, Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information Division

44 Education and Training Classification Consists of three categories of information for each occupation: Typical education needed for entry Work experience in a related occupation Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation 44

45 Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category: 2012 Doctoral or professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Postsecondary non-degree award Some college, no degree Thousands of jobs 4, , , , , ,987.2 Median annual wages, May 2012 $96,420 $63,400 $67,140 $57,590 $34,760 $28,730 High school diploma or equivalent Less than high school 38, ,264.4 $35,170 $20,110 45

46 Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category Percent change, projected Average= 10.8% Doctoral or professional degree Master's degree 16.0% 18.4% Bachelor's degree 12.1% Associate's degree Postsecondary non-degree award 15.6% 17.6% Some college, no degree 11.3% High school diploma or equivalent 7.9% 10.9% Less than high school 46

47 Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education Category Thousands of jobs, projected Doctoral or professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree 3,143.6 Associate's degree Postsecondary non-degree award Some college, no degree , ,337.1 High school diploma or equivalent Less than high school 4, ,

48 Graduate Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth W T Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May N N Lawyers $113, N N Physical therapists $79,860 Health specialties teachers, <5 N 68.6 $81,140 postsecondary 65.3 N I/R Physicians and surgeons, all other >=$187, N N Pharmacists $116, N N Healthcare social workers $49, N N Nurse practitioners $89, N I/R Mental health counselors $40, N N Physician assistants $90, N N Occupational therapists $75,400 48

49 Master s Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth W T Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May N N Healthcare social workers $49, N N Nurse practitioners $89, N I/R Mental health counselors $40, N N Physician assistants $90, N N Occupational therapists $75,400 Educational, guidance, school, and N N 31.2 $53,610 vocational counselors 26.0 N N Speech-language pathologists $69,870 <5 N Nursing instructors and teachers, postsecondary 24.0 $64, N Education administrators, postsecondary 23.5 $86, N N Rehabilitation counselors $33,880 49

50 Bachelor s Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth W T Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May <5 N General and operations managers $95,440 Elementary school teachers, except N I/R $53,400 special education N N Accountants and auditors $63, N N Software developers, applications $90, <5 N Management analysts $78,600 Market research analysts and marketing N N $60,300 specialists N N Computer systems analysts $79, N N Software developers, systems software $99, N M Construction managers $82,790 Middle school teachers, except special N I/R and career/technical education 76.0 $53,430 50

51 Associate s Degree or Postsecondary Non-degree Award Occupations with the Largest Job Growth W T Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May N N Registered nurses $65, N N Nursing assistants $24, N S Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers $38,200 Licensed practical and licensed N N $41,540 vocational nurses N N Medical assistants $29,370 N N Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists 77.6 $22,700 N N Preschool teachers, except special education 76.4 $27, N N Dental assistants $34, N N Dental hygienists $70,210 Heating, air conditioning, and N L refrigeration mechanics and installers 55.9 $43,640 51

52 High School Diploma Occupations with the Largest Job Growth W T Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May 2012 Secretaries and administrative assistants, except N S $32,410 legal, medical, and executive N S Customer service representatives $30, N A Carpenters $39, N M Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks $35, N M Medical secretaries $31, N S Childcare workers $19, N S Office clerks, general $27,470 First-line supervisors of office and administrative <5 N $49,330 support workers N S Receptionists and information clerks $25,990 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, N M except technical and scientific products $54,230 52

53 Less Than High School Occupations with the Largest Job Growth W T Thousands of jobs, projected Median annual wages, May N S Personal care aides $19, N S Retail salespersons $21, N S Home health aides $20,820 N S Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food $18,260 N S Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners $22, N S Construction laborers $29,990 Laborers and freight, stock, and N S $23,890 material movers, hand N S Maids and housekeeping cleaners $19, <5 M Cooks, restaurant $22,030 Landscaping and groundskeeping N S workers $23,570 53

54 Employment Outlook: Resources for Additional Information 54

55 Occupational Outlook Handbook 55

56 Occupational Outlook Quarterly 56

57 Employment Projections Program 57

58 Projections articles in Monthly Labor Review Overview of projections to 2022 The U.S. economy to 2022: settling into a new normal Labor force projections to 2022: the labor force participation rate continues to fall Industry employment and output projections to 2022 Occupational projections to 2022 Links to articles at 58

59 Useful Employment Projections Sites Technical documentation of Employment Projections program methods and data Other Employment Projections program publications, including past Monthly Labor Review articles Frequently asked questions 59

60 State and Local Area Projections BLS prepares projections only for the nation as a whole Projections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each state, using input from the BLS national projections State projections data, and links to each state s projections site, are available 60

61 Contact Information Richard Holden Regional Commissioner