Trends in Scholarly Journal Prices Sonya White & Claire Creaser

Transcription

1 Trends in Scholarly Journal Prices Sonya White & Claire Creaser March 2007

2 WHITE, Sonya and CREASER, Claire Trends in Scholarly Journal Prices Loughborough: LISU, 2007 LISU Occasional Paper no.37 ISBN: Oxford University Press 2007, published under exclusive licence by LISU 2007 Every effort has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data on which this report is based. In no event will LISU assume liability for any direct, indirect, special incidental or consequential damages arising out of the information contained herein. Published and distributed by LISU Loughborough University Leicestershire LE11 3TU Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) lisu@lboro.ac.uk

3 Contents Executive summary... iii 1 Introduction...1 Context...1 National journal price trends...3 Methodology...4 Selection of publishers...4 Criteria for title inclusion...4 Journal quality...6 Data sources Analysis...9 Description of main data tables...9 Ranking of 2005 impact factors...11 Notes on the results...11 Comparison of publishers...12 Biomedical results...12 Social science results...17 Snapshot analysis of 2005 Impact factors...21 Correlation analyses...22 Number of pages...23 Impact factor Oxford Journals...28 Biomedical titles...28 Social science Blackwell Publishing...34 Biomedical titles...34 Social science Cambridge University Press...40 Biomedical titles...40 Social science University of Chicago Press...46 Social science titles Elsevier...49 Biomedical titles...49 Social science Lippincott Williams & Wilkins...55 Biomedical titles...55 Social science Nature...61 Biomedical titles Nature (excluding Nature titles)...64 Biomedical titles...64 Trends in scholarly journal prices i Contents

4 11 Sage...67 Biomedical titles...67 Social science Springer...71 Biomedical titles...71 Social science Taylor & Francis...77 Biomedical titles...77 Social science Wiley...83 Biomedical titles...83 Social science References...89 Appendix A: Subjects included Biomedical...90 Appendix B: Subjects included Social science...91 Appendix C: List of journals included Biomedical...92 Appendix D: List of journals included Social science Trends in scholarly journal prices ii Contents

5 Executive summary This report describes research undertaken by LISU at Loughborough University on behalf of Oxford Journals, to investigate trends in the prices of biomedical and social science journals between 2000 and 2006 for a selection of eight commercial publishers and three university presses. The methodology used was developed from that used for a previous report (White & Creaser, 2004). Prices were examined in conjunction with the number of pages and impact factor of each journal. It is appreciated that these are not the only determinants of journal price, and that further research may be desirable to investigate the effects of the various pricing models in use. The detail of the methodology, in particular the application of the criteria for including titles in the analysis, differed from that adopted in the 2004 work, as a result of the discussion and comment which followed its publication. It is therefore not possible to make any detailed comparisons between the two sets of results, which differ in their detail although not in their overall patterns. There is little consistent evidence of associations between price, impact factor and number of pages. Data relating to some publishers for some subject areas show significant correlations, most frequently between price and number of pages. There are also some significant associations between price and price per page, and between price and impact factor, but this is not widespread, and can generally be attributed to a small number of titles with exceptional pricing. Some of the key statistics relating to price and price increases are: Biomedical titles Median journal prices ranged from 198 (Cambridge University Press) to 859 (Elsevier) in 2006 Increases in the median journal price between 2000 and 2006 varied from 42% (Oxford Journals) to 104% (Sage). Median price per page ranged from 31p (Oxford Journals) to 1.06 (Wiley) in 2006 Increases in the median price per page between 2000 and 2006 varied from 8% (Wiley) to 75% (Taylor & Francis). The proportions of titles identified without an impact factor in 2005 varied from 16% (Elsevier) to 74% (Sage) Median price per point of impact factor ranged from 186 (Oxford Journals) to 552 (Springer) in 2006 Changes in the median price per point of impact factor between 2000 and 2006 varied from a fall of 25% (Wiley) to an increase of 79% (Cambridge University Press). Trends in scholarly journal prices iii Executive summary

6 Social science titles Median journal prices ranged from 119 (University of Chicago) to 513 (Wiley) in 2006 Increases in the median journal price between 2000 and 2006 varied from 47% (Elsevier) to 120% (University of Chicago). Median price per page ranged from 13p (University of Chicago) to 93p (Wiley) in 2006 Increases in the median price per page between 2000 and 2006 varied from 20% (Elsevier) to 91% (Sage). The proportions of titles identified without an impact factor in 2005 varied from 27% (Elsevier) to 69% (Cambridge University Press). Several publishers had relatively few titles included in the analyses of impact factor for social science titles Median price per point of impact factor ranged from 110 (University of Chicago) to 775 (Springer) in 2006 Changes in the median price per point of impact factor between 2001 and 2006 varied from a fall of 20% (Elsevier) to an increase of 83% (Springer). These results should be considered in conjunction with the broad economic climate over the period. Averaged over all subjects and all publishers (not just those covered by this report), journal prices are estimated to have increased by 39% between 2000 and 2006, while the retail price index has risen by 16% over the same period. The report gives full details of the methodology used, and the context to the research, as well as a broad comparison of the publishers included, and detailed results for each. Trends in scholarly journal prices iv Executive summary

7 1 Introduction Oxford Journals, a division of Oxford University Press (OUP), has an interest in the relative pricing/value parameters of its main competitors and, in 2003, sought reliable metrics, independently collated and analysed, on which to base marketing and promotion decisions. LISU was commissioned to undertake an analysis of trends in journal pricing and related issues amongst a selection of scholarly publishers, and a report on the exercise was published in October 2004 (White & Creaser, 2004). Following publication of this report, there was considerable interest in its findings and methodology, and in 2006 Oxford Journals commissioned a further project to update the detailed analyses of biomedical titles included, and to extend the analysis to the social sciences. The methodology used built on, and refined, that used in the previous study. Publishers may seek to justify high journal subscriptions in terms of their value for money cost per impact factor, or price per page, for example. This work therefore analyses these indicators alongside the overall subscription. The main statistic of interest is the median price that value where half the publisher's journals cost more, and half cost less. This has been used in preference to the arithmetic mean, as it is less susceptible to distortion by a small number of highly priced titles. It is important to note that journal subscriptions are determined by a number of factors, of which size (number of articles or number of pages) is only one. Other factors, beyond the scope of this study, include circulation and alternative sources of revenue, such as individual subscriptions or advertising. A journal in a particularly specialist area, with low institutional circulation and little or no other revenue stream, is likely to be much more expensive than one with a wider appeal which may have both greater institutional circulation and considerable individual subscriptions and other revenue. Context Journal pricing studies have a long history a literature search reveals studies of journal costs from the 1960s, with regular contributions throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Studies continue into the 21st century, complicated by the added dimension of electronic access to journals and the diversity of pricing models. Some of the more recent studies are considered here. Most published studies are carried out by university departments or libraries concerned by rising prices and falling budgets. Many originate in US universities, and the main purpose is to establish reliable methods of managing their own serial collections. Obviously, UK universities are faced with the same problem of decreasing budgets and increasing numbers of journals, but individual studies are not as prevalent in the literature. However, journal price data have been published annually by CILIP, and its predecessor, the Library Association, since the mid 1970s, and further information on periodicals is presented in the LISU Annual Library Statistics (Creaser et al, 2006). It seems likely that publishers too are carrying out their own research; however such research does not, generally, appear in the published literature. The US studies all use similar methods but differ slightly in, the subject areas investigated and the variables used to compare price trends. The main difference in method is the basis used for cost comparison. Some researchers have used raw subscription cost (e.g. Budd 2002). For balancing budgets this is obviously the quickest and most relevant system. However, the studies reported in the literature aim to show some trend, and to compare certain factors such Trends in scholarly journal prices Introduction

8 as price rises in certain disciplines or by a certain type of publisher. To do this, most authors agree that some indication of value is needed rather than just price; this is the approach taken by Bergstrom in developing his journal cost-effectiveness model, which analyses US costs per citation (Bergstrom & McAfee, 2006). Another variable used for comparison is type of publisher. Classifications of publishers vary and definitions are not always provided. Some researchers use only two categories: commercial and not for profit (e.g. Soete and Salaba 1999); some specify association or society rather than not for profit (e.g. Budd 2002); further categories included by some researchers include university (Budd 2002, Cornell Taskforce 1998) and Government (Cornell Taskforce 1998). Few studies examine named publishers, and some that have, have attracted considerable adverse reaction (Parrott, 2004). The study by the Biology Faculty Taskforce at Cornell University (1998) incorporated impact factor into their review of journal prices in Agricultural and Biological Sciences, comparing 1988 and In addition to the cost per 1000 characters, they also considered the number of SCI citations and the ISI impact factor. They concluded that society journals had the highest impact factor for the lowest cost. Their study is notable for using OCR for counting the number of characters, and also for including qualitative measures of interest to academics. These included page charges levied by journals, availability of reprints and requirement to relinquish copyright. They conclude by emphasising the role of academics as contributors and therefore essential to journals, recommending that academics should consider the implications of publishing and possibly boycott journals with high costs or restrictions. Most studies originate in the USA, where one of the concerns is the price difference of European journals purchased in the US. Meyer (2001) concluded that exchange rate could not fully account for price increases over the period of study ( ). The Faculty Taskforce at Cornell University (1998) also found price increases to be above the Consumer Price Index and not related to exchange rates. Although US studies tend to be critical of European journal prices, a UK study expressed similar concerns about publishers claims that exchange rates account for price increases. Young (1988) quotes one publisher s claim that their prices are set in Germany so fluctuations in the exchange rate cause increases in the sterling price for their journals. However, Young noted that the fluctuations during the period (1986 and 1987) were low and did not tally with actual price increases. Studies into journal pricing have reached a new era with the added dimension of electronic access. Quandt (2003) reviews pricing research to date and examines the implications of electronic access for scholarly communication. Pricing models are becoming increasingly complex, with discounted prices for multiple title bundles, and links between the purchase of print and electronic subscriptions. In the UK, the national e-journals initiative ( has developed model licenses with publishers for the academic community, covering the latest developments in the delivery of teaching and dissemination of research activity. Recent developments in open access publishing models are finding increasing acceptance by authors a recent study found only 15% of respondents were unlikely to publish in an open access journal in the next three years (Swan & Brown, 2005). Such changes can only complicate librarians efforts to manage their serials collections effectively and economically, and highlight the need for current, reliable evidence on the movement of journal prices. Trends in scholarly journal prices Introduction

9 The present work builds on a previous study commissioned by Oxford Journals in 2004, to examine trends in overall journal prices by broad subject area, and trends in price per page and price per point of impact factor for biomedical titles, for a selected group of twelve scholarly publishers. That study found a wide range in median journal prices, both overall and in the specific subjects examined. Price increases also varied considerably between publishers and between subjects. No evidence was found to suggest that different rates of price increases had prevailed in the 1990s compared to those after There was also little evidence of a relationship between price and impact factor for biomedical journals. For this analysis two subjects have been examined in depth biomedical sciences and social sciences. Analyses have been carried out on overall institutional subscription price, price per page, and price per point of impact factor. The size of a journal is one factor used in determining price, and analysis of price per page allows a fairer comparison of price between journals whose numbers of pages may differ by a factor of 100 per year. Increasingly, academic authors and readers are focussed on the most important journals in their subject area, and the impact factor of a journal has become a key measure of its importance, particularly in scientific disciplines. Using price per point of impact factor as a measure of relative value, rather than price per citation, has the advantage that journal size is not a confounding factor in the analysis. National journal price trends Table 1.1 shows the average prices for periodicals provided to LISU by Swets Information Services. While these categories do not map exactly onto those used in this study, it is interesting to compare the broad levels of increase, and to note that the average price of all social science journals fell in (General was introduced as a new category in 2006; it is not clear whether journals in this category were previously included in other categories). The Swets reports are aimed at providing a comprehensive survey of annual serial prices increases (CILIP, 2006), and in each year, titles are included if their price is directly comparable with that in the previous year. As a result, the actual levels of average price quoted may not be directly comparable between years. LISU takes account of this in their Annual Library Statistics (Creaser et al, 2006). 1.1 Periodical prices Ann. Inc. Ann. Inc. Ann. Inc. Soc. Sci % 267 9% % % 428 2% % 474-4% Science % 615 0% 644 5% 630-2% % % % Medicine 334 9% 350 5% 377 8% 367-2% 396 8% 414 5% 451 9% Technology % 357 8% 385 8% % % 514 4% % Humanities 60 1% 65 8% 71 9% 66-6% 89 35% 98 10% % General 301 GB average % 323 4% % % 423 7% % 489 5% Source: LISU Annual Library Statistics Ann. Inc. Ann. Inc. Ann. Inc. Ann. Inc. Trends in scholarly journal prices Introduction

10 Between 2000 and 2006, the general rate of inflation in the UK was 16%, while periodical prices are estimated to have risen by 39% over the same period. On average, periodical prices have risen faster than inflation in the UK; however this is a very crude measure, taking no account of the relative value in terms of journal size or quality. Methodology Selection of publishers The publishers included in the 2004 analysis, specified by Oxford Journals, were again examined, with the exception of Kluwer, which merged with Springer in 2004, and Johns Hopkins University Press, and the addition of Wiley: Blackwell Publishing Cambridge University Press Elsevier Lippincott Williams and Wilkins Nature (specialist journals) Oxford Journals Springer Sage Taylor and Francis University of Chicago Press Wiley These were selected as being the largest academic journal publishers in the commercial market and the largest university presses, which also have a breadth of subject coverage including biomedical and social science titles. The sample of publishers was determined on the basis of making the project manageable within Oxford Journals timescale and budget. While this list cannot be described as exhaustive, and no summary analyses have been carried out across publishers, we believe that the largest journal publishers in the relevant subjects have been included. Note that two sets of analysis were carried out for Nature including and excluding the Nature titles. Johns Hopkins University Press was not included in the current study as fewer than ten of their titles in each subject had sufficient data for analysis. Note that, since this study was carried out, Wiley has acquired Blackwell Publishing. Criteria for title inclusion Subject Two broad subject areas have been examined in depth: biomedical sciences and social sciences. The analyses of biomedical titles update those presented in Trends in Scholarly Journal Prices (White & Creaser, 2004), and are based on the same detailed set of subject areas. Lists of the subjects included as biomedical are given in Appendix A and those included as social science are given in Appendix B. There is an element of subjectivity as to whether individual subject areas should be considered biomedical and/or social science. In general, detailed subject areas were included as social science where ISI and Swets included them in Trends in scholarly journal prices Introduction

11 their social science lists. This has resulted in some subject areas (e.g. Law) being included which might not be considered social science under a more restrictive classification. The primary source of subject information was the ISI JCR lists. For journals which did not have an impact factor, the printed editions of the Swets price lists were used to allocate subjects as far as possible. Occasionally, subjects were classified as social science in ISI lists and biomedical in the Swets catalogues and vice versa. In these instances, the ISI classification was used. Extensive checking of journal classification was carried out, and as a result it is not possible to make direct comparisons between the numbers of journals included in the previous report and in this one. In particular, the subjects allocated to the social sciences were more accurately described for the current work, as more in-depth analysis was to be carried out. Subject categories have been included in their entirety i.e. all titles which were listed under any subject area classified as biomedical or social science were included in the analyses, where they had a complete set of data. This may give rise to a small number of apparent anomalies in the actual titles included in the broad subject headings. However, it was felt that including or excluding individual titles on the basis of personal subjective familiarity with the title could lead to accusations of bias. Individual titles were therefore included if any one of their subject areas identified from ISI or Swets categories was considered to be biomedical or social science. Further, all publishers were given the opportunity to edit their own list of titles. Appendices C and D list all titles included in the analysis with one of their subject categories and an indication of whether or not each particular title has been included in the price per point of impact factor analysis. Note that there was some overlap in the allocations of individual topics to either biomedical or social sciences, and in such instances a particular journal may be included in the impact factor and/or page number analysis in the social science section but not in the biomedical section. In particular, psychiatry, psychology, public environmental & occupational health, and substance abuse were included in both subjects. Continuity of data Continuity of price information was essential, and those journals for which price data were not available for each year covered by the study ( ) were excluded from the main analyses. Titles that had moved to or from another publisher during that time frame, or ceased publication, and new launches were also omitted. This criterion was set in order to ensure continuity of the reported trends. New titles might have special arrangements with regard to pricing in their earliest years in order to attract both contributors and purchasers. Publication patterns can be irregular in the early years of a journal s life. Moving titles from one publisher to another, either as a one-off, or as a result of mergers/takeovers, could result in a discontinuity in pricing policy. Although this restriction reduced the number of titles available for analysis in some cases, it was felt to produce a more comparable result overall. Checking of titles included The previous study attracted some criticism from publishers over the lists of titles included. Considerable effort was expended in the current project to avoid repeating mistakes uncovered following publication of the first report. In particular, the price lists were closely examined to remove all bundles of titles offered at advantageous rates, and any abstracting and indexing services. Trends in scholarly journal prices Introduction

12 Further, once the data had been collected, each publisher was sent a list of their titles which LISU felt met the criteria above, and invited to comment. Several did so, and their suggestions were taken into account. Responses were received from Cambridge University Press, Nature, Oxford Journals, Sage, University of Chicago Press, and Wiley. In all cases, only minor changes, if any, were made to the initial journal lists. Taylor & Francis declined to comment. Elsevier were concerned that the methodology might result in a misleading picture, particularly in regard to the overall median price a similar concern to that raised last time. It has been noted above that factors other than page numbers and impact factor will affect pricing decisions, and additional research would be needed to evaluate these. The methodology being used was appropriate for the aims and objectives of this study but there are a number of other areas which deserve investigation, and which would be better addressed by alternative methodologies. Journal quality This work was intended to be based on only scholarly journals i.e. those of most interest to academic libraries and researchers. There is a considerable number of general interest and professional journals included in the Swets price lists. While many of these may be of interest to scholars and academic libraries, many will not, and should properly be excluded from the analyses. In order to achieve this, the Thompson Journal Citation Reports (JCR) were used to identify those journals which have an impact factor, indicating that their material is used by other researchers in the relevant field. It is recognised that this approach may have limitations for example, new journals take time to build a reputation and to be included in the journal citation reports, and due to the time series nature of these analyses, some may have been excluded which might otherwise qualify. However, it seems unlikely that, in science and social science at least, relatively few academic journals which are heavily cited will be omitted from the JCR altogether. Over 5,900 science titles and 1,700 social science titles are included in the two JCR volumes Impact factors have the advantage of being independent of publishers, objectively calculated, and comparable across disciplines. An alternative measure considered was to examine peerreviewed journals, particularly in the social sciences. However, it is not always easy to determine whether or not a journal is peer reviewed, or the quality of the reviewing process, which can vary considerably between journals. Hoeffel, quoted in Garfield (1999), said: Impact Factor is not a perfect tool to measure the quality of articles but there is nothing better and it has the advantage of already being in existence and is, therefore, a good technique for scientific evaluation. Experience has shown that in each specialty the best journals are those in which it is most difficult to have an article accepted, and these are the journals that have a high impact factor. These journals existed long before the impact factor was devised. The use of impact factor as a measure of quality is widespread because it fits well with the opinion we have in each field of the best journals in our specialty. Trends in scholarly journal prices Introduction

13 Saha et al (2003) concluded that journal impact factor was a suitable indicator of quality for medical journals, based on a comparison of researchers subjective views concerning journal quality with their impact factors. Andersen (2000) found that the coverage of the JCR in social sciences was biased towards UK and US titles, but that the majority of those in the disciplines which he studied that were considered by academics to be most important were listed. For biomedical science, the researchers felt that impact factor was an appropriate indicator of journals of interest to academic librarians, and analyses of both price per page and price per point of impact factor were carried out on the reduced subset of titles which had an impact factor throughout. For social science, as a relatively large proportion of titles are not listed in the JCR, the decision was taken to carry out the analyses of price per page on all titles which met the continuity criterion described above, regardless of whether or not they had an impact factor. It is appreciated that this will inevitably lead to the inclusion of some general interest, trade and professional journals, but it is felt that the distortions thereby introduced would be less than would occur by restricting the data set. The proportions of titles included which did not have impact factors in 2005 are included in the analysis for each publisher. Price per point of impact factor analyses were also undertaken for the small subset of social science titles that did have an impact factor. However, it must be borne in mind that the figures are less meaningful than for biomedicine due to the poor coverage of social science in ISI. Data sources Price Price data relating to the period between 2000 and 2004 had been sourced from Swets Information Services for the previous study. Additional data for 2005 and 2006, and for Wiley titles, were purchased electronically from the same source. This was used as an independent source of title and price information, comparable for all publishers in the study. The prices used were in pounds sterling, as applicable to individual UK academic libraries. They are as charged at the time no account has been taken of overall serial price inflation or of the general rate of inflation in the UK. Between 2000 and 2006, the retail price index rose by 16%, and the LISU index of journal prices by 39%. Where different formats were available at different prices, the price of the print version was used. Online-only journals were not included. Increasingly over the time period studied, a single price covered both the printed journal and online access, and this may have an impact on the trends reported. As such pricing tended to be a matter of publisher policy, applied over much of the list rather than affecting individual titles within a given list, it has not proved possible to make any formal estimate of the effect this might have. Subject Subject information was initially taken from the ISI JCR lists. For journals without impact factors, the Swets print catalogues were examined and subject data extracted. As a final source for the few titles for which subject information could not be found from either of these sources, the publishers websites were used to identify subjects. Any remaining titles for which no subject information was available were excluded from the analyses. Trends in scholarly journal prices Introduction

14 Impact factor Impact factor data from 1999 to 2003 were available from the previous study. Additional data on impact factor for 2004 and 2005 were provided by Oxford Journals, downloaded directly from the ISI website. Page numbers Data on the number of published pages, where not already available from the previous study, were obtained from either Swetswise (Swets Information Services), or from the individual publishers websites. Publisher sites were the preferred source, as they generally gave the exact number of pages in each journal volume. Swetswise data were virtually complete, but an estimate of the total pages in any year had to be made from the tables of contents. These data were sourced and input manually. Journals which did not have an electronic edition throughout the period did not have a complete set of data, and so were excluded from the analysis of cost per page. This has affected different publishers to different extents. In some cases the proportion of titles for which page number data could not be found for all years required was significant. Trends in scholarly journal prices Introduction

15 2 Analysis Four main analyses were carried out, all by publisher: Trends in overall journal prices from 2000 to 2006, including all journals published continually throughout Trends in price per page, from 2000 to For biomedical science, this included only those journals which had impact factors throughout the period; for social sciences, all journals published continually throughout for which the total number of pages in each year could be established were included A snapshot analysis of all titles listed by ISI in 2005 by impact factor Trends in price per point of impact factor from 2000 to 2006, including those journals with an impact factor in all years. For social science, impact factors for 1999 were not available electronically, so this analysis covered 2001 to Biomedical and social science titles were analysed separately. Price was related to impact factor in the previous year, and to page numbers in the same year i.e prices were analysed with 2004 impact factors and 2005 page numbers. As with the 2004 report, no analysis has been carried out where fewer than ten titles were available for analysis. Additionally, the correlation between overall price, impact factor and number of pages was examined for each subject. Correlation is indicative of linear relationships between two measures, and varies between +1 and -1. These analyses are reported at the end of this section (pages 22-26). Description of main data tables The detailed analyses for each publisher are presented in sections In every case, the time series analyses are based on the sets of titles for which relevant data were available in every year covered. The tables give seven values for each year: Most expensive in 2006 figures for the individual title which had the maximum value in th percentile that value in each year where 10% of titles were higher, and 90% lower Upper quartile that value in each year where 25% of titles were higher, and 75% lower Median that value in each year where half of all titles were higher and half lower Lower quartile that value in each year where 75% of titles were higher, and 25% lower 10th percentile that value in each year where 90% of titles were higher, and 10% lower Least expensive in 2006 figures for the individual title which had the minimum value in 2006 The calculations on which each table/graph was based are as follows: Overall journal prices Includes all journals with a price in every year, 2000 to The percentiles are the actual values calculated for each year and do not refer to a single title. These tables are not restricted to those journals with impact factors; as a result a number of professional and general interest titles may be included. Trends in scholarly journal prices Analysis

16 Figures for the overall increase between 2000 and 2006 are also given. Note that, except for the most and least expensive titles, these are not based on price increases for a particular title, but show how the distribution points have changed over time. So that, for example, if the increase for the upper quartile is greater than that for the lower quartile, there is an indication that more expensive titles are increasing in price more rapidly than less costly ones (this does not impact on their value, however, as the figures are total subscription prices). If the converse is true, then this may suggest that the publisher is narrowing the range of prices which are charged. Note that the overall figures in this final column differ from those in the tables of median percentage increases because they are calculated in a different way. In this table, the figures in this final column represent the overall six year percentage changes in the distribution points of journal price. Percentage increases Includes all journals included in the overall journal prices tables. The titles with the greatest and smallest increases were selected according to their overall change between 2000 and 2006; the actual titles in these positions may therefore differ from those in the previous report. The percentiles are the actual values calculated for each year and do not refer to a single title. The overall figures in the final column differ from those in the tables of overall journal prices because they are calculated in a different way. In this table, the figures in this final column represent the distribution points for the overall six year percentage changes. The figures in this table represent the distribution points of the percentage changes from year to year. For example the figures shown as the median are the medians of the percentage increases for each year. The variation within a single year s figures illustrates the range of price increases applied across all titles. Where figures for a single year are similar, then a similar level of price increase has been applied to all titles included. Price per page For biomedical sciences, this table includes all journals with an impact factor and price in every year, for which the number of pages could be found for every year. For social science titles, this table includes all journals with a price in every year, for which the number of pages could be found for every year. Data refer to the price per page for the same year. The percentiles are the actual values calculated for each year and do not refer to a single title. Price per impact factor Includes all journals with an impact factor and price in each year. Note that this will exclude considerable numbers of titles included in the overall analysis reference should be made to the snapshot analysis of impact factor for each publisher for an indication of the proportion of titles excluded. Data refer to the price per point of impact factor for the previous year. The percentiles are the actual values calculated for each year and do not refer to a single title. Data for biomedical titles cover prices from 2000 to 2006 (related to impact factors for 1999 to 2005). Impact factor data for 1999 were not available for social science titles, so these tables cover prices from 2001 to 2006, related to impact factor for 2000 to As previously stated, the coverage of social science in ISI is poorer than for biomedicine and it is important to bear this fact in mind when drawing conclusions from the data. Trends in scholarly journal prices Analysis

17 Ranking of 2005 impact factors This snapshot analysis includes all titles with impact factors in Additionally, an attempt was made to identify all relevant titles which were not listed in the JCR volumes for 2005, for the publishers included here. For biomedical science, a total of 3,219 titles were listed in JCR, of which 3,190 had non-zero impact factors. For the social sciences, 1,900 titles were included, of which 1,888 had non-zero impact factors. For each publisher, all journals were ranked, and classified as being in the top 10% of impact factors, the next 15%, the next 25%, and the bottom 50%. Those with zero impact factor, and those not listed in 2005 made up the final category. The results have been plotted as pie charts, where based on ten or more titles. These graphs give an indication of the proportions of titles without impact factors, which should be considered when examining the data on price per page for biomedical titles, and price per point of impact factor for both subjects. For more information on how we defined and classified the list of journals which did not have impact factors, please read the section on Criteria for title inclusion on page 4. Notes on the results The following general points should be borne in mind when examining the detailed results by publisher: The only data relating to specific titles are those for the most and least expensive in each category. In some cases, the trends for these titles fluctuate considerably; and some commentary is included where we have been able to highlight a particular cause. However, the figures are only intended to give a flavour of the range of prices for each publisher, and should not be thought of as typical in any sense. Cost per impact factor is a measure which has a particularly wide range. Impact factor can be very low in 2005 the lowest (non-zero) values were in biomedical sciences and for social sciences. In such cases, whatever the actual subscription cost, the price per point of impact factor will be very high. Impact factor levels vary between subjects those in the social sciences tend to be considerably lower than those in biomedical sciences due to the ways in which scholars in the two areas disseminate information Andersen (2000) reports that only a quarter of social science dissemination is via journal articles, compared to two-thirds in natural science and medicine. In 2005, the highest journal impact factor in social sciences was , compared to in biomedical sciences. Where fewer than ten titles met the relevant criteria for any table, no analysis is included here. Trends in scholarly journal prices Analysis

18 Comparison of publishers Table 2.1 shows the number of titles included in the overall trends analysis for each publisher, and the proportions of these which had impact factors throughout the period: 2.1 Volumes of data included Biomedical Social science No. With IF No. With IF Blackwell Science/Publishers % % Cambridge University Press % % Elsevier % % Lippincott Williams and Wilkins % % Nature % 0 Oxford Journals % % Springer % % Sage % % Taylor and Francis % % University of Chicago Press * % Wiley % % * Six titles identified no analyses were carried out. Biomedical results Overall price analysis, Median prices for biomedical titles vary greatly between publishers, from 198 for Cambridge University Press to 859 for Elsevier in the most recent year of the study, as is illustrated in fig 2.3. In addition, the range of increases over the period considered here also varies widely amongst publishers with Oxford Journals seeing the smallest increase (41.5%) and Sage the greatest (104.4%). It is interesting to note that for those publishers that have been included in both studies, the two representing the highest and lowest have remained the same both in terms of median journal price and the percentage increase over the period of the study. It is important to highlight here that Wiley experienced a large increase in median journal price in 2002 however, on closer inspection this has been followed by a decrease (of just over 11% on average) in journal pricing in It is impossible to investigate under the scope of this study how much the price here has been influenced by the US dollar exchange rate and how much is due to a change in pricing policy at Wiley. Trends in scholarly journal prices Analysis

19 2.2 Median journal prices No incl. Sage % 56 Blackwell % 274 Taylor & Francis % 202 Springer % 219 Nature % 29 Cambridge UP % 25 Nature excl % 23 Elsevier % 388 Wiley % 42 Lippincott % 208 Oxford Journals % Median journal prices 900 Elsevier 800 Wiley 700 Nature 600 Nature excl Oxford Springer Blackw ell T & F Sage Lippincott 200 Cambridge Average price per page For this analysis, the average price per page for each journal has been calculated using prices and page numbers from the same year this is different to the 2004 report where the previous year s page data were used (i.e price with 2003 page numbers) and so any comparisons should be treated with caution. Only 10 of the original publishers had data available for ten or more titles throughout, and only those journals with impact factors in each year of the study have been included. Trends in scholarly journal prices Analysis

20 Table 2.4 illustrates the median price per page by publisher for the period considered here. Taylor & Francis reports the largest increase, at 75%, with Wiley the smallest at just over 8%. This compares with an increase of 16.1% in the Retail Price Index between January 2000 and January Over the seven-year period considered here, the publisher with the lowest price per page varies between the Oxford Journals ( , ) and Cambridge University Press ( , 2004). This was also the case in the 2004 study although the Oxford Journals then had the lowest median price per page in each year except for However it is important to note that theprice per page in the 2004 study was calculated on a slightly different basis (see above). Wiley had the highest price per page in every year of this study with the increase in 2002 partly due to the variations of the exchange rate of the US dollar against sterling. 2.4 Median price per page No incl. Taylor & Francis % 86 Nature % 25 Nature excl % 21 Cambridge UP % 12 Lippincott % 105 Blackwell % 166 Springer % 136 Oxford Journals % 44 Elsevier % 273 Wiley % Median price per page Wiley T & F 0.80 Springer Elsevier Blackw ell Lippincott Nature Nature excl. Cambridge Oxford 0.00 Trends in scholarly journal prices Analysis

21 Impact factors The range of impact factor values is very wide between publishers, as is illustrated by Table 2.6 and Fig 2.7 below, which display the median impact factor for the nine publishers with sufficient data over the period considered here. In each year of the study, Nature has the highest median impact factor whether or not the Nature branded titles are included. Taylor & Francis sees the lowest median impact factor in every year of the seven-year period, with Cambridge University Press the only publisher to have a lower median impact factor in 2006 than they had in 2000 although there are many fluctuations amongst the publishers over the seven years. 2.6 Median impact factor No incl. Wiley % 22 Elsevier % 277 Blackwell % 168 Oxford Journals % 44 Springer % 139 Lippincott % 111 T & F % 89 Nature excl % 21 Nature % 25 Cambridge UP % Median impact factor Nature Nature excl. Oxford Cambridge Elsevier Blackw ell Lippincott Wiley Springer T & F Table 2.8 and Fig 2.9 below illustrate the median price per point of impact factor and give an alternative measure of value to the price per page analysis considered above. Again the figures illustrate that there is much variation both between as well as within publishers most Trends in scholarly journal prices Analysis

22 noticeably for Wiley. As has been discussed earlier, the variations in the exchange rate of the US dollar may have had some affect on the fluctuations in journal prices for Wiley; however, 2002 saw an average increase of 8.9% in the price of those journals with an impact factor compared to an average increase of only 4% in impact factor. This was followed in 2003 by a decrease of 11% in the average journal price for those journals with impact factors. In the 2004 study, Cambridge University Press had the lowest median price per point in impact factor in , with the Oxford Journals having the lowest in However, the figure above illustrates that in this analysis Cambridge University Press had the lowest median price per impact factor in , with the Oxford Journals having the lowest in the remaining years. 2.8 Median price per point of impact factor No incl. Cambridge UP % 12 Blackwell % 168 Springer % 139 Lippincott % 111 Nature % 25 T & F % 89 Oxford Journals % 44 Elsevier % 277 Nature excl % 21 Wiley % Median price per point of impact factor Springer 500 Wiley Elsevier 400 T & F 300 Blackw ell Oxford Nature excl. Cambridge Nature Lippincott 0 Trends in scholarly journal prices Analysis

23 Social science results Overall price analysis, As with the biomedical journals discussed above, the median price of social science journals varies greatly between publishers, from just under 119 for the University of Chicago Press to 513 for Wiley in The range of increases in the median price also varies greatly amongst publishers, with Elsevier seeing the smallest increase, at just over 47%, and rather surprisingly the University of Chicago Press the largest at almost 120% Median journal prices No incl. U. of Chicago % 16 Blackwell % 210 Sage % 162 Taylor & Francis % 373 Springer % 48 Oxford Journals % 48 Wiley % 39 Cambridge UP % 29 Lippincott % 17 Elsevier % Median journal prices Wiley Elsevier 400 Sage Chicago T & F Lippincott Blackw ell Springer Oxford Cambridge 0 Fig 2.11 illustrates that all publishers have seen year-on-year increases throughout the period, except for Wiley and Lippincott, which saw decreases in the median price of their Trends in scholarly journal prices Analysis

24 social science journals in 2003 and 2004 respectively. However, in the case of Wiley this decrease followed an increase of just over 14% in 2002, and, as has been discussed above, it is impossible to evaluate how much of this is due to the fluctuation in the US dollar exchange rate and how much is due to a shift in pricing policies at Wiley. Average price per page Again, as with the biomedical journals, price per page has been calculated using figures from the same year i.e price with 2004 page numbers, and is calculated for all journals with data for both price and page numbers in all years. Table 2.12 and Fig 2.13 illustrate the median price per page for the ten publishers with sufficient data Median price per page No incl. Sage % 161 U. of Chicago % 14 Taylor & Francis % 320 Blackwell % 202 Springer % 33 Cambridge UP % 24 Lippincott % 14 Oxford Journals % 48 Wiley % 37 Elsevier % Median price per page Wiley Elsevier T & F Sage Springer Lippincott Blackw ell Oxford Cambridge Chicago 0.0 Trends in scholarly journal prices Analysis