Navigating the Future at the Census Bureau

Transcription

1 Navigating the Future at the Census Bureau Dr. Nancy Potok Deputy Director and Chief Operating Officer Council for Community and Economic Research (C2ER) Annual Conference June 6, 2014

2 Navigating the Future Shrinking budgets for federal agencies Using Big Data and making data more open Being proactive and innovative Producing less costly data Adopting new technologies 2

3 Budget Overview FY 2014 ($944M) Enables key activities for 2020 Census Research & Testing Allows us to finish 2012 Economic Census (including Survey of Business Owners) Provides funding to continue monthly, quarterly, and annual economic and demographic data, which critical measures are derived of society (new supplemental poverty measure) and the economy (GDP and other principal economic indicators FY 2015 (President s Budget $ M) Implement program enhancements Targeted investments in research, testing and IT shared services will save billions in the Decennial Census and result in efficient systems solutions across the enterprise. Continued investments in comprehensive and relevant data for policymakers and the public is necessary for informed decisionmaking, but must be balanced with efficiencies and reduced burden.

4 Impact of the Budget on Data Quality Scientific consequences of budget decisions Hiring, Training, and Interviewing Amount of data collected Speed of reviews Products released Quality of estimates

5 2012 Economic Census Integral to BEA estimates of GDP Used E-filing approach Survey of Business Owners 90% electronic response using e-fling approach

6 2012 Economic Census Industry Series Upcoming Tentative Release Schedule Data Products Manufacturing: Industry Series, 2012: Guided Missile and Space Vehicle Manufacturing Manufacturing: Industry Series, 2012: Guided Missile and Space Vehicle Propulsion Unit and Propulsion Unit Parts Manufacturing Release Dates June 10, 2014 June 10, 2014 July 4 th Promotion: Manufacturing: Breweries July 1, 2014 July 4 th Promotion: Manufacturing: Wineries July 1, 2014 July 4 th Promotion: Manufacturing: Ice Manufacturing July 1, 2014 Wholesale Trade: Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco Products July 1, 2014 Manufacturing: Military Armored Vehicle, Tank, & Tank Component Manufacturing July 11, 2014 Manufacturing: Household Cooking Appliance Manufacturing July 18, 2014 Manufacturing: Household Refrigerator and Home Freezer Manufacturing July 18, 2014 Manufacturing: Household Laundry Equipment Manufacturing July 18, 2014 Manufacturing: Other Major Household Appliance Manufacturing July 18, 2014 Manufacturing: Ethyl Alcohol Manufacturing July 18, 2014 Manufacturing: Semiconductor and Related Device Manufacturing July 24,

7 Percent complete SBO Phase I Response Comparison 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012 Phase I (n=849,050) 2007 Phase I (n=969,936) Government Shutdown: Oct. 1-16, 2013 Reporting response rates at 187 days after initial mailout. 79.7% 72.4% 72.9% Days past mailout 7

8 Future Plans 2012 SBO Release Schedule Data Products Release Dates Women-Owned Businesses June 2015 Hispanic-Owned Businesses July 2015 Black-Owned Businesses August 2015 American Indian- and Alaska Native-Owned Businesses September 2015 Asian-Owned Businesses October 2015 Native Hawaiian- and Other Pacific Islander-Owned Businesses October 2015 Veteran-Owned Businesses November 2015 Company Summary December 2015 Characteristics of Businesses December 2015 Characteristics of Business Owners December 2015 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) file

9 Future Plans SBO Annual Estimates Program Milestone Produce annual estimates for 2003 through 2011 using preliminary methodology Estimated Completion November 2014 Prepare internal-use advance estimates of 2012 employers March 2015 Refine and finalize final models using 2012 SBO responses for both employers and nonemployers July 2015 Finalize methodology plan September 2015 Release 2012 SBO publications June December 2015 Publish 2013 SBO estimates ~ March 2016 Publish 2014 SBO estimates based on mid-cycle survey ~ December

10 Looking Towards FY Decennial Census Must invest now in research, testing, and IT development to save billions in cost

11 Longitudinal Business Data The Fuel that Powers the 21 st Century Integrates survey and administrative data for all 6 million employer firms Update annually and extends back into the 1970s making it the longest time series of any data on business dynamics Includes data on business openings and closings, startups, job creation, job destruction by firm size, age, industry, and location throughout the United States

12 Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD) Innovative time series data created under the federal-state Local Employment Dynamics Partnership provide valuable details about America s jobs, workers, and local economies and communities.

13 American Community Survey 13

14 ACS Content Review Update 14

15 Approach We will review all topics on the questionnaire Phase 1 (1 st week of June): We will place our initial focus on four highprofile topics: Plumbing: 8a, 8b, 8c and 8d Disability: 17a, 17b, 18a, 18b, 18c and 19 Journey to Work: 30, 31, 32, 33 and 34 Income: 47a, 47b, 47c, 47d, 47e, 47f, 47g, 47h and 48 Phase II (3 rd week of June): We will begin to review the remaining topics on the questionnaire 15

16 Data User Feedback Tool Feedback Form - ACS Content Review -- The Census Bureau is trying to learn more about how people and organizations use ACS data. If you are an ACS data user, please help us improve the survey by telling us about the specific data you use and how you use it. 1) Please select up to 5 questions on the ACS that are most important to you or that you use most frequently. Social (Characteristics about people such as Educational Attainment, Marital Status, Language Spoken at Home, etc.) See All Social Topics Economic (Characteristics about people and households such as Income, Occupation, Health Insurance Coverage, etc.) See All Economic Topics Financial (Characteristics about housing such as Property Value, Mortgage, Rent, Utility Costs, etc.) See All Financial Topics Physical (Characteristics about housing such as Acreage, Year Structure Built, Computer & Internet Use, etc.) See All Physical Topics 16

17 Data User Feedback Tool Financial (Characteristics about housing such as Property Value, Mortgage, Rent, Utility Costs, etc.) See All Financial Topics Value of Property Business or Medical Office on Property Mobile Home Costs Mortgage/Selected Monthly Owner Costs (SMOC) Real Estate Taxes Condominium Fee Tenure Rent Cost of Utilities Insurance Value of Property -- About how much do you think this house and lot, apartment, or mobile home (and lot, if owned) would sell for if it were for sale? 17

18 Supporting a Data Enabled Economy Making data more accessible and developing new data products that utilize both economic and demographic data to help businesses grow the economy and create jobs America s 30 million businesses depend on Census Bureau data Spark innovation Advance scientific discovery Satisfy customer demands Create jobs Business Use Statistics For site location, industry, and market analysis To make investment and production decisions To gauge competitiveness To identify entrepreneurial opportunities

19 Innovations Underway Advancing methods associated with Adaptive Design Evaluating response propensity at the case level Increasing representativeness Reducing response bias Modernizing the way we do data dissemination

20 Modernizing Data Dissemination

21 Source: Robert Groves 2013 Brussels

22 Big Data Offers both challenges and opportunities for the federal statistical community Privacy No common definition of Big Data No currently acceptable processes or procedures for using Big Data to produce Official Statistics Statistical reliability Methodological transparency

23 Unleashing the Power of Data

24 Opportunities Transform aging systems Deliver more usable data Increase timely data Make data more accessible Use web-based approach Collect and manage data more cheaply and efficiently, and less intrusively Collaborate with private sector Drive development of Big Data standards and measurement science

25 Future Outlook of Surveys Move to all web-based approach for electronic reporting Design electronic instruments Develop e-reporting tools that better guide respondents Utilize electronic paradata Improve survey instruments Answer questions about the respondent process to influence current and future data collection activities (e.g., adaptive or tailored designs)

26 Discussion