Nivesh Currency. From September, Weekly Change & Technical levels. Currency against U.S. dollar. Foreign exchange reserves, in billion $

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1 Nivesh Currency From September, 2016 Important Highlights India's Current account deficit narrowed to $0.3 billion, or 0.1% of GDP in the Apr-Jun quarter compared with $0.3 billion or 0.1% of GDP in the previous quarter and $6.1 billion or 1.2% of GDP in the first quarter of the previous fiscal year. Federal Reserve left short term interest rates unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50%, the level it's been at since last December Wednesday and signaled that it still expect to raise them before year-end. Bank of Japan left its key deposit rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, revising its policy framework by setting a 10-year interest rate target to step up its fight against deflation after the existing measures failed to achieve 2% inflation in the promised two-year time frame. U.S. unemployment insurance benefits fell by 8,000 to 252,000 in the week that ended Sep 17, marking 81 weeks that initial claims remained below the key 300,000 level, the longest streak since Euro zone current account fell to a seasonally adjusted 21.0B, from 29.5B in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from 28.2B. U.S. CPI rose to 0.2%, from 0.0% in the preceding month. U.S. core CPI rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.3%, from 0.1% in the preceding month. German Producer Price Inflation fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.1%, from 0.2% in the preceding month. Weekly Change & Technical levels NSE/BSE/MSEI September Future Currency LTP Wk % Pair Change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Currency against U.S. dollar Currency LTP Wk % Pair Change R1 R2 S1 S2 Trend DOLLAR INDEX Consolidation EURUSD Consolidation GBPUSD Bearish USDJPY Bearish Foreign exchange reserves, in billion $ September 16, 2016 Change in$ bln (Wk) Total Reserves At Down $1.67bln Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: seema.yadav@indianivesh.in IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022)

2 USD-INR October Future CMP Sell below 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss Dollar/Rupee 0.66% its biggest plunged since 27 March 2016, and settled at compared to previous week close of followed by US Federal Reserve monetary policy that decided to keep its interest rates unchanged and signaled a slower pact of rate hike in coming years. However the fall in the currency pair was capped due to buying by nationalized banks likely on behalf of oil and defense importers. Technical, on the weekly chart USDINR broke its medium term support of and formed a long bearish candle stick which points for bearishness in days to come. This week, will act an immediate support and USDINR would need to trade below this level in order to test , else any rise towards likely to attract near term selling activities with stop loss above Dollar Index The greenback retraced from the weekly high and tested after the Federal Reserve left short term interest rates unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50%, the level it's been at since last December Wednesday and signaled that it still expect to raise them before year-end. However, it rebounded against major rivals as they covered their short-position taking advantage of sharp dip on Thursday. Technically, since 1 August 2016 to 15 Sep 2016 dollar index fluctuated in between gains and loss which is giving the shape of an inverted head & shoulder pattern. The neckline resistance is seen at and a breakout on the closing basis will bring decent rally towards , else failure of the closing could hold consolidation in between levels.

3 EUR-INR October Future LTP Sell around 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss EUR-INR pared gains on Friday and tested before closing at after Euro zone economic growth hit a 20-month low pointing towards sluggish improvement in the economy. Euro/dollar traded down as Euro zone private sector grew at the slowest pace in 20 months in September, flash data from Markit showed Friday. Technical, on the weekly chart EURINR trading in under symmetrical triangle (continuation) pattern Since February 2016 which saw a consolidation in between levels. In near term trend expect to remain bearish unless EURINR give a closing above which is coincide with resistance of triangle. On the other hand, sustain trade above only open the door for upside move towards GBP-INR October Future LTP Sell below 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss Pound remained worst performer among major currencies for second consecutive week, drop more than 2.10% as the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously kept its interest rates unchanged while indicated that it would cut them again before the end of the year. Technically, on the weekly chart GBPINR trading on its crucial support which is coincide with its 14 August low and pair would need to trade below this level in order to test , else failure of the break down could result strong reversal and currency could test again.

4 JPY-INR October Future LTP Sell below 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss Yen retraced form the weekly high and settled at levels as dollar weakened after the US Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged and projected a less hostile rise in the pace of the benchmark rates in coming years. The Japanese market, which climbed nearly 2% on Wednesday following the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to overhaul its monetary policy framework, is closed Thursday for a public holiday. Technically, on the weekly chart, JPYINR trading below its previous swing high while forming three rising candle stick pattern both of which creating probability for correction from every rise towards levels. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at sustain trade above only will expect to test High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week Date Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Impact Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks :30pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate Positive 8:35pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks :30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence Negative :00pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.50% 1.30% Negative 7:30pm USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies :00pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks USD Crude Oil Inventories M :05pm JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks :00pm USD Final GDP q/q 1.30% 1.10% Positive USD Unemployment Claims 260K 252K Negative :30am USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks :15am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Positive 2:00pm GBP Current Account -30.5B -32.6B Negative :30am CNY Manufacturing PMI Positive Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant *DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.

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