Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic Developments in Charts March 2015
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1 Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic Developments in Charts March 215
2 Real Sector and Inflation Real GDP Growth (Annual /Quarterly) Sectoral GDP Growth Per Capita GDP Unemployment Poverty Inflation (Headline and Core Inflation) External Sector Earnings from Merchandise Exports Earnings from Merchandise Imports Trade Balance Tourism: Arrivals and Earnings Tourism: Monthly Arrivals Workers Remittances Current Account Balance Balance of Payment Foreign Direct Investment Flows Gross Official Reserves Exchange Rate Movements Index Fiscal Sector Government Revenue Government Expenditure: Recurrent Expenditure Government Expenditure: Public Investment Budget Deficit Public Debt Monetary Sector Reserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier Broad Money Growth Credit to the Private Sector Net Credit to Government Credit to Public Corporations Net Foreign Assets Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve Market Interest Rates Financial Sector Banking Sector Indicators(i) Banking Sector Indicators(ii) Banking Density Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators(i) Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators(ii) Stock Market Performance
3 Real Sector and Inflation
4 Q1 28-Q4 29-Q3 21-Q2 211-Q1 211-Q4 212-Q3 213-Q2 214-Q1 214-Q4 Real GDP Growth Annual Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Growth 1 1 % % Source: Department of Census and Statistics
5 Growth Rate (%) Growth Rate (%) Growth Rate (%) Sectoral GDP Growth 15 Agriculture Sector 15 Industry Sector Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 5-1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Services Sector Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Source: Department of Census and Statistics
6 US$ Per Capita GDP 4, 3,625 3,5 3,28 3, 2,836 2,922 2,5 2,397 2, 2,11 2,54 1,617 1,5 1, ,62 1,241 1, Source: Department of Census and Statistics
7 % Unemployment Source: Department of Census and Statistics
8 % Poverty Poverty Headcount Ratio / /27 29/21 212/213 Source: Department of Census and Statistics
9 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 % Inflation Headline Inflation Core Inflation(Y-O-Y) % Core (xffet+ RC)* Headline (Y-o-Y) Headline (Annual Avg.) *Calculated by excluding fresh food, energy, transport, rice and coconut from the Colombo Consumers Price index. Source: Department of Census and Statistics
10 External Sector
11 US$ mn Earnings from Merchandise Exports 1,1 1,5 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: and Sri Lanka Custom
12 US$ mn Expenditure on Merchandise Imports 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: and Sri Lanka Custom
13 US$ bn Trade Balance Q1 Source:
14 Q1 US$ mn Number Number Tourism Arrivals and Earnings Monthly Arrivals 3, 1,8, 2, 2, ,6, 1,4, 18, 16, 2, 1,5 1, ,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Earnings from tourism(us$ mn) Tourist arrivals(no) Source: and Sri Lanka Tourist Development Authority (SLTDA) Source: SLTDA
15 US$ mn Workers Remittances 8, 7, 6, 5,985 6,47 7,18 5, 5,145 4, 3, 2, 1,16 1,155 1,287 1,414 1,35 1,968 2,161 2,52 2,918 3,33 4,116 1,661 1, Q1 Source:
16 US$ bn Current Account Balance Source:
17 US$ mn Foreign Direct Investment Inflows 1,8 1,685 1,6 1,4 1,382 1,437 1,2 1,66 1, Source:, Board of Investment and Colombo Stock Exchange
18 US$ bn Balance of Payments Overall Balance Source:
19 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 US$ bn Months Gross Official Reserves 1 Gross Official Reserves and Months of Imports Gross Reserves Months of Imports Source:
20 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Exchange Rate Movements Rs US Dollar Rs Australian Dollar Rs Japanese Yen Rs Sterling Pound Rs Indian Rupee Rs Euro Source:
21 Fiscal Sector
22 P. % of GDP Government Revenue Source: Ministry of Finance
23 P P. % of GDP % of GDP Government Expenditure Recurrent Expenditure Public Investment Source: Ministry of Finance
24 % of GDP Budget Deficit P. Source: Ministry of Finance
25 P. % of GDP Central Government Debt Source: Ministry of Finance
26 Economic Research Department Monetary Sector
27 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar Q1 % Y-O-Y Reserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier Reserve Money Growth(Y-O-Y) Money Multiplier M1 M2 M2b Source:
28 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 % Broad Money Growth Broad Money (M 2b ) Growth(Y-O-Y) Source:
29 Jan-2 Mar-2 May-2 Jul-2 Sep-2 Nov-2 Jan-3 Mar-3 May-3 Jul-3 Sep-3 Nov-3 Jan-4 Mar-4 May-4 Jul-4 Sep-4 Nov-4 Jan-5 Mar-5 May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Rs.bn % 3, 2,5 2, Credit to the Private Sector , , Private Sector Credit Volume(LHS) Private Sector Credit Growth(RHS) Source:
30 Jan- Aug- Mar-1 Oct-1 May-2 Dec-2 Jul-3 Feb-4 Sep-4 Apr-5 Nov-5 Jun-6 Jan-7 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Rs.bn Net Credit to the Government 1,8 1, ,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ,4 1,2 1, Central Bank Commercial Banks Claim on Government (net) Source:
31 Dec-1 Mar-2 Jun-2 Sep-2 Dec-2 Mar-3 Jun-3 Sep-3 Dec-3 Mar-4 Jun-4 Sep-4 Dec-4 Mar-5 Jun-5 Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Rs.bn Credit to Public Corporations Source:
32 Dec-2 Mar-3 Jun-3 Sep-3 Dec-3 Mar-4 Jun-4 Sep-4 Dec-4 Mar-5 Jun-5 Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Rs.bn Net Foreign Assets(NFA) 1, , NFA of Central Bank NFA of Commercial Banks NFA of the Banking System Source:
33 3-Jan-12 4-Mar-12 7-Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-12 1-Dec-12 4-Jan-13 7-Feb Mar Apr-13 2-May Jun Jul-13 3-Aug-13 3-Oct-13 6-Nov-13 1-Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-14 2-Jul-14 5-Aug-14 8-Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar-15 % Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates Average Weighted Call Money Rate Standing Deposit Facility Rate* Standing Lending Facility Rate ** *Previously named as the Repo Rate ** Previously named as the Reverse Repo Rate Source:
34 1-Jan-11 2-Feb Apr May-11 2-Jul-11 8-Sep Oct Dec-11 5-Feb Mar May-12 4-Jul Aug Oct-12 1-Dec-12 2-Jan Mar-13 3-Apr Jun-13 8-Aug Sep Nov-13 5-Jan Feb Apr-14 4-Jun Jul Sep-14 1-Nov Dec-14 9-Feb Mar-15 3 Month 6 Month 12 Month 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 8 Year 1 Year 15 Year 2 Year 3 Year % % Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve Treasury Bill Yields and Policy Interest Rates Secondary Market Yield Curve Standing Deposit Facility Rate Standing Lending Facility Rate 91- Day Treasury bill 364- Day Treasury bill 182- Day Treasury bill End 211 End 212 End 213 End Q1 Source:
35 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 % Market Interest Rates Monthly Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR) Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR) Source:
36 Financial Sector
37 Rs.bn Rs.bn % Banking Sector Indicators(i) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Assets and Liabilities of the Banking Sector - 1,975 2,586 2,61 3,73 3,149 3,625 3,427 4,17 3,895 4,686 4,775 4, Q1 Loans and Advances Deposits Non-Performing Loans of the Banking Sector Q1 Gross NPL Volume(Rs.bn) Gross NPL Ratio(%) Net NPL Ratio(%) Source:
38 % % Rs.bn % Banking Sector Indicators(ii) Profitability Indicators Capital Adequacy Ratios , 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1, Q1 Return on Equity Net Interest Margin Return on Assets 1, ,571 1,527 1,815 2,269 2,61 2,942 3,483 3, Q1 Risk Weighted Aseets (Rs.bn) Core CAR (%) Total CAR (%) Source:
39 Banking Density by Province
40 Rs.bn Rs.bn Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators(i) 1, Assets of the LFC & SLC Sector Q1 Total Deposits of the LFC & SLC Sector Q1 Source: LFC: Licensed Finance Companies SLC: Specilised Leasing Companies
41 % Rs.bn % Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators(ii) Profitability Indicators of the LFC and SLC Sector Net Interest Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity Non-Performing Advances Q1 Gross NPA (Rs.bn) Gross NPA Ratio (%) Net NPA Ratio (%) Source:
42 2-Jan Mar Jun Sep Dec-11 7-Mar-12 1-Jun Aug-12 2-Nov Feb May-13 5-Aug-13 3-Oct Jan-14 2-Apr Jul-14 9-Oct-14 3-Jan-15 3-Mar-15 Index US$ mn Rs. bn Stock Market Performance Share Price Indices and Market Capitalisation Net Foreign Inflows to the Secondary Market Share Price Indices and Market Capitalisation Net Foreign Inflows 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Market Capitalisation (RHS) S&P SL 2 Index (LHS) All Share Price Index (LHS) Q1 Source: Colombo Stock Exchange
43 The sets of graphs above summarise macroeconomic and financial market trends in Sri Lanka. However, these graphs do not provide source data. An extensive set of data is available in the CBSL website. Information for 214 and 215 Q1 are provisional.
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