Changes in weather storm events over the Hudson Bay area (Canada) in links with regional sea-ice state
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1 Changes in weather storm events over the Hudson Bay area (Canada) in links with regional sea-ice state Philippe Gachon 1,2, Rabah Aider 2, Philippe Martin 3, Milka Radojevic 2, Christian Saad 2,3, Guillaume Dueymes 2, Ronald Frénette 3, and André Cotnoir 3 1 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA), Climate Research Division, Environment Canada,, Montréal, QC, Canada 2 Centre pour l'étude et la Simulation du Climat à l'échelle Régionale, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada 3 Section on Survey and Adaptation to Climate, Atmospheric Sciences and Environmental Issues, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Montréal, QC, Canada CMOS-2012, MONTRÉAL, QUÉBEC, CANADA, MAY 29-JUNE 1, 2012
2 Content Introduction : Main objectives of the study and outcomes, and regional context (Hudson Bay) of climate variability and changes Methods: study area, data, storm track algorithm, etc. Results : Storm characteristics (Hudson Bay vs north American areas) Links between storm characteristics and sea-ice features: Historical period Future period Other Links through teleconnection indices (large-scale atmospheric circulation variability) Conclusion and next steps
3 INTRODUCTION: Main objectives PRIMARY To support a vulnerability and adaptation study (coordinated by the Ministry of Transport of Québec) of the marine infrastructures in Nunavik (i.e. Hudson Bay area, Canada) under warming (climate change) conditions. SECONDARY To improve our knowledge on trajectories, occurrence, frequency, duration/persistence and intensity of meteorological storms over the Hudson Bay area, as well as on the risk and scale of storm surge and wave activities to come at intra- and inter-annual time scales; To improve our knowledge on interactions between coastal sea-ice features and climate conditions: what are the key atmospheric variables linked with sea-ice growing and melting (seasonality), its mobility and stability?
4 INTRODUCTION: CONTEXT : HISTORICAL VARIABILITY OR CHANGES (EX. SEA-ICE & TEMPERATURES) Summer season trends (i.e. period from June 19 to November 19) over the period Source: Service Bulletin (16-002), vol. 5, n 4, EnvironStats, Winter 2011, Statistics Canada Kuujjuaq (Hudson Strait) Daily maximum temperature anomalies per season over the period Correlation between sea-ice & temperature anomalies Ex. Hudson Strait for Tmax/Tmin. ( ) : November: -0.87/-0.89 December: -0.74/-0.74
5 INTRODUCTION: ENSEMBLE SCENARIOS FROM VARIOUS REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS (RCMS): SRES-A2, 2050S, TMIN, WINTER/SUMMER ( C) 12 different RCMs from NARCCAP (see & from Canadian RCM (4.2.0/4.2.3) from Ouranos
6 Methods: data (reanalysis & RCMs) List of data from various sources Type of products NARR NCEP Description Period Original Resolution North American Regional Reanalysis from NCEP Global Reanalysis from NCEP/DOE Final or Used Resolution Km/3h 100 Km/3h Km/6h 100Km/3h ERA40 CanRCM4 MRCC 4.1.1, & GEM regional Global Reanalysis from ECMWF Canadian Regional Climate Model developed by CCCMA driven by NCEP/DOE Canadian Regional Climate Model driven by both NCEP & CGCM3 (from Ouranos) Canadian Forecast Model (high res. over Canada) from Environment Canada Km/6h 100Km/3h Km/3h 100Km/3h Km/6h 100Km/3h /15 Km/3h 100 Km/3h
7 Methods: storm track algorithm FROM the Algorithm developed by Sinclair (1997) & modified by Rosu (2005) & Radojevic (2006). Identification of cyclonic centres: From the wind of gradient (or geostrophic), the vorticity is computed Identify cyclonic centres near the surface (1000-hPa) using the maximum of vorticity Select synoptic systems : critical threshold for the vorticity (ex. 2.5 x 10-5 s -1 ) according to the orographic features Use the following variables: Topography (i.e. geopotential topography) Geopotential height at 1000-hPa (use to compute the wind & vorticity) Wind at 500-hPa (use to anticipate the future location/point of the track)
8 Methods: diagnostic variables (storm) & study region Main characteristics of storm analyzed in terms of : Frequency/occurrence Intensity (ex. vorticity) Persistence/duration and speed of moving Direction of origin or moving and dimension, and Affected zones (ex. impacts on winds and waves): circulation and density of cyclonic centers, cyclolysis/cyclogenesis Region of interest (Nunavik) : Hudson Bay & Hudson Strait DRAFT Page 8 July-4-12
9 RESULTS: density of storms & of cyclonic centers (reanalysis NARR) Mean number of storms per month and per area Mean number of cyclonic centers per storm and per area
10 RESULTS: Links between storm characteristics & seaice anomalies (July, ) WHOLE HUDSON BAY & HUDSON STRAIT July Hudson Bay Hudson Strait NCEPII CanRCM4 NCEPII CanRCM4 Mean density of storm tracks Mean duration of storm tracks Mean absolute 1000 hpa Mean 1000 hpa Sea-ice data source from Canadian Ice service (Environment Canada)
11 RESULTS: Links between storm characteristics & seaice anomalies (July, ) per sub-regions (5) of the HUDSON BAY (ex. Reanalysis NARR) CORRELATION BETWEEN STORM & SEA-ICE July - Southwest Sea-ice Extent Std Anomalies p-value Correlation (ρ) Number of storms Number of cyclonic centers Mean vorticity Mean lenght Mean duration Mean speed % level 95% level Sea-ice data source from NSIDC (US)
12 RESULTS: Links between storm characteristics & seaice anomalies (Dec., ) WHOLE HUDSON BAY & HUDSON STRAIT December Hudson Bay Hudson Strait NCEPII CanRCM4 NCEPII CanRCM4 Mean density of storm tracks Mean duration of storm tracks Mean absolute 1000 hpa Mean 1000 hpa Sea-ice data source from Canadian Ice service (Environment Canada)
13 RESULTS: Links between storm characteristics & seaice anomalies (Dec., ) per sub-regions (5) of the HUDSON BAY (ex. Reanalysis NARR) Dec. - Northwest Sea-ice Extent Raw values p-value Correlation (ρ) Number of storms Number of cyclonic centers Mean vorticity Mean lenght Mean duration Mean speed Dec. - Hudson Strait Sea-ice Extent Std Anomalies p-value Correlation (ρ) Number of storms Number of cyclonic centers Mean vorticity Mean lenght Mean duration Mean speed % level 95% level Dec. -Southeast Sea-ice Extent Std Anomalies p-value Correlation (ρ) Number of storms Number of cyclonic centers Mean vorticity Mean lenght Mean duration Mean speed Sea-ice data source from NSIDC
14 RESULTS: ANTICIPATED CHANGES (2050s vs ) in storm characteristics over the whole HUDSON BAY (ex. CRCM4.2.0) DECEMBER JULY DRAFT Page 14 July-4-12
15 OTHER LINKS: CONSIDERED TELECONNECTION INDICES EX. NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) & BAFFIN ISLAND-WEST ATLANTIC (BWA) I.E. LINKED WITH STORMS & SEA-ICE ANOMALIES (EX. DECEMBER) North Atlantic Pressure Centres (surface) North Atlantic Gibraltar (36.1 N,5.3 W) Oscillation Reykjavik (65 N, 22.8 W) Normalized mean sea level pressure difference between Reykjavik and Gibraltar Hurrell (1995) Canadian Polar Trough (500-hPa) BWA Baffin Island / Baffin Island (Z1: 65 N,60 W), West Atlantic West Atlantic (Z2: 30 N, 60 W) 0.5*(Z1 -Z2 ) Z is the 500-hPa geopotential heights anomaly (in dam), i.e. deviation from the climatological (daily, monthly, or winter) mean value Shabbar et al. (1997)
16 RESULTS: LINKS BETWEEN SEA-ICE EXTENT ANOMALIES AND TELECONNECTION INDICES (NAO & BWA): NOVEMBER MONTH ( ) Sea-ice data source from NSIDC DRAFT Page 16 July-4-12
17 Correlation Coefficient RESULTS: LINKS BETWEEN CHARACTERISTICS OF STORMS AND TELECONNECTION INDICES Correlation between teleconnection indices (NAO & BWA) and Storm Statistics (from NARR): December month ( period) over the 5 sub-domains (Hudson Bay) Significant statistical trend Foxe Basin - NAO Foxe Basin - BWA North West- NAO North West- BWA South West - NAO South West - BWA South- East - NAO South- East - BWA Hudson Strait - NAO Hudson Strait - BWA Number of storms Number of cyclone centers Average vorticity Length Lifetime Speed % level 95% level December Storm characteristics vs December BWA over the whole Hudson Bay region:
18 CONCLUSION & NEXT STEPS Historical analysis clearly show links between storm characteristics and changes in sea ice (start and end of the season) and/or atmospheric teleconnections (e.g. BWA); Then, the anticipated changes in sea ice conditions (through a continuous decrease of sea ice extent in Hudson Bay) could have : Direct effects on storm characteristics (i.e. No clear trends in the characteristics of storms over the last decades BUT an increase in duration/density of storms in Dec./July from 1 RCM future run; OTHER runs are under analysis); Indirect effects on storm surges, oceanic waves, and coastal processes (i.e. both large-scale and local scale feedbacks are important). Need to incorporate in forecast or climate model : high spatial & temporal resolution of sea-ice or surface oceanic characteristics (i.e. risk assessments as effects vary among Hudson Bay sectors).
19 References & Acknowledgements Hurrell, J. W., Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation Regional Temperatures and Precipitation, Science 269, Radojevic, M, 2006: Activité des cyclones Extra-tropicaux simulés par le modèle canadien de circulation general. Mémoire de maîtrise en Sciences de l Atmosphère, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada, 119p. Rosu, C., 2005 : Les caractéristiques des cyclones et l'apport d'eau dans les bassins versants du Québec Mémoire de maîtrise en Sciences de l Atmosphère, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada, 118p. Shabbar A, Higuchi K, Skinner W, and Knox JL The association between the BWA index and winter surface temperature variability over eastern Canada and west Greenland. International Journal of Climatology 17: Sinclair, R.M., 1997: Objective Identification of Cyclones and Their Circulation Intensity, and Climatology, Weather and Forecasting, 12, Acknowledgements to: Environment Canada : Meteorological Service of Canada (Québec region) for financial and in-kind support; EC-CCCMA team for the development of CanRCM4 as well as for providing RCM data (Y. Jiao & J. Scinocca) Ouranos and NARCCAP for providing RCM simulations Our colleagues J. P. Savard & C. Rosu (from Ouranos) as well as Anick Guimond (from the MTQ, Québec)
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