Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region

Transcription

1 Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region Agenda March 17, 2016 Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO Venue: ICPAC (Kenya Meteorological Department) Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, opposite the Junction 09:30 Situation Analysis & Outlook: Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition & refugees ACF, FAO, FEWSNET, ICPAC, IPC, UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP 10:30 Tea/Coffee break All 11:00 Update on FSNWG Statement and Food and Nutrition Security El Niño Impact ICPAC All 12:00 Discussion

2 Current Conditions Significant deterioration and spread of food insecurity in Sudan, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia and Uganda compared to previous month.

3 Key Messages Urgent humanitarian response required for about million people facing severe (crises and emergency IPC phase 3 & 4) food insecurity and malnutrition in parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, CAR, Sudan, DRC, Somalia, Burundi, Djibouti and Uganda. The main drivers of food insecurity and malnutrition remain largely drought due to El Niño, protracted conflict, macro economic shocks and inherent vulnerabilities. The FSNWG will continue to monitor the FNS situation in the region as the lean season progresses with particular focus in parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Burundi and Uganda (Karamoja). Generally, food security is expected to improve in most areas of the given GHACOF forecast of the MAM 2016 rains especially for Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Southern Ethiopia and.

4 Country Updates

5 Uganda In Karamoja over 20 percent of very poor households (12,372 people) in Moroto and Kaabong Districts are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Very poor households are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the end of the lean season to July. Pasture conditions are seasonally deteriorating. BUT, remains above average in most areas. Overall, livestock body conditions is average. Food security to improve from March 2016 as agric labor opportunities, pastures and water resources improve. Current food security outcomes, February to June 2016

6 Ethiopia 10.2M people in need of humanitarian assistance; areas of concern - NE, parts of Central (IPC Phase 3 & 4) Drought impacts: Meher crop failure/ production shortfall, water & pasture shortage, deteriorating livestock condition & deaths, food insecurity; Livestock productivity not expected to improve until next rainy season => impact availability of livestock products & incomes; Market prices (wheat & pulses) still high due to limited supply, constraining access among poor HHs; Food insecurity likely to deteriorate further with early and severe lean season; 435,000 children under five and 1.7 million children and PLW require specialized nutritional support Projected food insecurity classification (January March 2016), FEWSNET:

7 Somalia (FEWNET an FSNAU) 4.7 million people in Somalia are acutely food insecure and will be in need of assistance now until June 2016; 953,000 people under crisis & emergency (between Feb-June) 68% are IDPs. FEWS NET: Projected food security outcomes, February to May 2016 Areas of concern: in the South Bulo Burto (Hiran), Hudur and Wajid (Bakool), and Dinsoor (Bay). In the northern Somalia Bari, Nugaal, Sanaag, and Sool Regions, Adwal and Woqooyi Galbeed. Main causes: poor rainfall and drought conditions, trade disruption, protracted and new population displacement, compounded by poverty; Acute malnutrition affecting 304,700 children, (58,300 severely - at risk of morbidity & death); to be updated Persistent GAM levels above 15% in Bari Urban; Garowe, Galkayo and Dollow IDPs; Mataban and Beletweyne Districts; Bay, North Gedo and North Gedo Riverine.

8 Kenya 639,600 people required food assistance between August Feb 2016, reduced by 41% compared to Aug 2015 (FEWS NET and KFSSG Feb 16); 2016 Long-rains (MAM), increased likelihood for near-normal for much of Kenya, apart from western and central rift valley, where the rains will be slightly above average. National Food Balance Sheets estimates projected to end of May 2016: Maize, beans, rice and wheat - show surplus balances post May. FEW NET Projected food security outcomes, February to May 2016

9 South Sudan 2.84M (23%) under IPC Phase 3 & 4 (Dec 2015 IPC update) - an increase during post-harvest period; Food insecurity is likely to persist and peak during the lean season (April July period); High dependence on wage labour and markets esp in urban poor in Juba, Aweil and Wau attributed to low own crop and livestock production. Drivers: conflict-related displacements, limited access, disruption in livestock and crop production, high staple food prices, and currency devaluation; Inflation, currency depreciation and increased fuel prices especially in Juba are putting traders out of business as cereal prices hit record highs, increasing by tenfold in the past year. Malnutrition causes: inadequate food consumption, morbidity, sub-optimal feeding practices, poor health and nutrition services, poor hygiene and sanitation, and constrained health and nutrition service delivery.

10 Rwanda Above-average harvests throughout most of Rwanda, helping maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1); Food security is improving as Season A harvests increased household and market stocks and the lean season ended; Some poor households in Eastern Semi- Arid Agropastoral livelihood zone remained stressed IPC 2 during the April due to below-average harvests; FEWS NETE estimated food security outcomes, February to May 2016 Bean, maize, and cassava flour prices all significantly declined in most areas of Rwanda due to ongoing harvest.

11 Burundi 3.6M people are food insecure (689,571 severely) Feb FSMS & EFSA; Some households in the conflict affected provinces are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3); Food insecurity is attributed to: restricted movement of people limiting ability to seek labor opportunities, Low import capacity due to the significant depreciation of the Burundi currency (from October 2015 to March 2016 the Burundi franc has lost around 30% of its value changes, Poor 2016 A agricultural season harvest due to excessive rains (EL Nino phenomena); The current humanitarian response plan estimates more than 30,000 people affected by the floods with over 13,000 hectares of crops destroyed. Lower economic access to food due to limited financial resources and increasing food prices. Food prices are expected to increase significantly with end of March 2016 with the forthcoming lean season. Percentage of severely food insecure households, WFP, Feb 2016

12 Djibouti More than 40,000 people are estimated to be in IPC phase 3 in parts of South eastern Pastoral, Northwest Pastoral of Dikhil Region, and Obock Pastoral; Government estimates. Displaced pastoralist populations from Ethiopia and Somaliland putting more pressure on limited grazing resources water and pasture, Livestock body conditions likely to continue deteriorating with significant impact on household food and nutrition insecurity; The Diraac/Suguum is expected this month and if sufficient may improve the deteriorating trend in grazing resources.

13 Sudan More than 4 million people in Sudan face Stressed and Crisis as of February 2016; newly displaced people from Jebel Marra and Blue Nile conflict areas are most likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4); Areas of concern: North Kordofan, West Kordofan, Kassala, Red Sea, White Nile, and the Darfur States; Below-average 2015 crop production (25% below 5- yr average), effects of El Nino in east, below-average rainfall and reduced area under cultivation in west; Pasture is % below average in north/central. Adequate availability of staple foods due to aboveaverage carryover stocks of cereals and imports of wheat. BUT, sorghum & millet prices above-average & expected to increase due to low local production (Dec 2015); High food prices and declining livestock prices reduce ToT for pastoral and agro pastoral HHs; Pasture deficits (North Darfur, North Kordofan, Kassala, White Nile States) impacting on livestock body condition, increasing livestock migration, and below-average livestock prices. Lean season likely to start early due to reduced purchasing power and reduced access to food from own production. FEWS NET Projected food security outcomes, March to May 2016

14 DR Congo 4.5M people projected to remain under crisis and emergency food insecurity over Sept 2015 March 2016; IPC Phase 3 & 4 in several areas (Eastern, North and South Kivu, Kalehe, Kabare, and Mwenge Provinces); Food insecurity drivers: effects of armed conflicts, population displacement, localized flooding impacting on livelihoods sources; Heightened prevalence of acute malnutrition in Equateur, Kongo Central and Western and Central Provinces.

15 CAR 1.3M people were under IPC phase 3 & 4 over April-Nov 2015; Dec 2015 EFSA: 1.95M people (50.5%) moderately or severely food insecure (0.6M being severely); Highly food insecure populations in the North, SE, and NW regions: prefectures of Nana- Mambéré (77%), Haut- Mbomou (74.5%), Mambéré-Kadéï (73.2%), Ouham (68.6%), Vakaga (64%) and Nana- Gribizi (61.4%) (map 2); Crisis food insecurity likely to remain in most areas of the country (USAID, Jan 2016); Map 1: April-Nov 2015 IPC Causes: delayed start of rains, insufficient access to farm inputs, depleted national food stocks; poor access to markets, high food prices; Map 2: Dec 2015 EFSA

16 Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4) Country Pop in IPC phase 3 & 4 Source Burundi 0.69M Dec 2015 FSMS CAR 1.95M (0.6M severe) (require assistance) EFSA Dec 2015 Djibouti 0.04M FWS NET Feb 2016 DRC 4.46M IPC Sept 2015 March 2016 Ethiopia 10.2M (require food aid) HRD, Dec 2015 Kenya 0.64M (require support) KFSSG, Feb 2016 Somalia 0.95M FSNAU, Feb-June 2016 South Sudan 2.84M IPC, Dec 2015 Uganda 0.13M FEWS NET Feb Sept 2016 Sudan 4M IPC Sept Nov 2015 TOTAL 25.90M As of the end of February 2016, the number people facing critical and emergency food insecurity levels in the region was 25.9 million. This is a slight decrease from the previous month (26.76 million people) mainly due to ongoing harvests and results from Sudan, and Eritrea are not yet available.

17 17 March 2016 Nutrition Update FSNWG Nutrition Sub-Group Eastern and Central African Region Nutrition Update

18 17 March 2016 March Regional nutritional synthesis 1. Critical nutrition situation (especially acute malnutrition) for young children in several countries due to illness, inadequate feeding exacerbated by several underlying factors including El Niño effects and conflict 2. Nutrition partners mobilization and donor support to address SAM and MAM remain critical in the region 3. Need to strengthen situation analysis (assessments & in-depth causal analysis), nutrition information management 4. Need to address the sustained high level malnutrition through integrated multi-sectoral programs with WASH, Food security and health, strengthen community resilience efforts

19 17 March March Uganda Uganda Nutrition update In Moroto and Kaabong District, stressed to critical food insecurity and anticipated increased malnutrition rates Food security and nutrition assessments conducted in December 2015, results not yet published

20 17 March March Ethiopia Ethiopia Nutrition update Priority Woredas (nutrition hotspot) New hotspot classification under discussion, with a new multi-sectoral approach (April 2016) 0 Priority 1 Woredas Priority 2 Woredas Priority 3 Woredas Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Dec-15

21 17 March March Ethiopia Ethiopia Nutrition update Nationwide SAM admissions trends 329, , , , , Current target for the management of acute malnutrition million children 6-59 months for 2016: 435,000 for severe acute malnutrition 1.7 million for moderate acute malnutrition Agreement reached to cover all P1 & P2 woredas for the management of moderate acute malnutrition

22 17 March March Ethiopia Ethiopia Nutrition update Bi-Annual Nutrition Survey (BANS) completed in 21 Woredas in 6 regions NGOs identified to cover gaps services Priority-1 Woredas Priority-2 Woredas P-1 Woredas Covered by NGOs P-1 Woredas not covered (Gap) by NGOs NGOs proposals submitted to cover P-1 woredas P-2 Woredas Covered by NGOs P-2 Woredas not covered (Gap) by NGOs NGOs proposals submitted to cover P-1 woredas

23 17 March March Kenya Kenya Nutrition update Unchanged child nutrition situation in the northern arid parts of the country when compared to August 2015 however persistence of high acute malnutrition rates (Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera and Wajir) Improved nutrition situation in the south eastern (agro pastoral and coastal livelihood zones), mainly due to the improved food security, following positive impacts of the short rains season. Chronic factors affecting malnutrition persist, these include: household food insecurity, morbidity, limited access to health services, poor sanitation and suboptimal child feeding and care practices.

24 17 March March Somalia Somalia Nutrition update Gu 2007 Deyr GAM and SAM trends in SC region of Somalia GAM SAM Linear (GAM) Linear (SAM) 2008 Gu 2008 Deyr 2009 Gu 2009 Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu 2012 Deyr 2013 Gu 2013 Deyr Gu 2014 Deyr 2014 Gu 2015 Deyr GAM and SAM trends in North East region of Somalia GAM SAM Linear (GAM) Linear (SAM)

25 17 March March Somalia Somalia Nutrition update Sustained critical level of acute malnutrition Nutrition cluster underfunded

26 17 March March South Sudan South Sudan Nutrition update Nutrition situation remain critical in Upper Nile, Warrap, NBeG, Unity Sates and parts of Eastern Equatoria,

27 17 March March South Sudan South Sudan Nutrition update SAM admissions increased in 2015 compared to 2014 SAM admissions for Jan 2016 highest for the last two years Nutrition situation highly unpredictable (due to context) Funding for the humanitarian response- including the nutrition sector is critical and may hamper the response by nutrition partners.

28 17 March March Sudan Sudan Nutrition update 54 out of 184 localities and 7 out of the 18 states of Sudan have a continuous GAM prevalence above 15% during the lean season El-Nino induced drought may lead to: Increase in acute malnutrition caseload during intensified lean season Worsening in severity of acute malnutrition; Increased vulnerability to chronic malnutrition (Stunting). Increased conflict in Jebel Marra region led to displacement (90,000 as of end February) Insufficient nutrition information available Only 1% of the nutrition appeal funded

29 17 March March Burundi Rwanda Burundi Nutrition update Increasing food insecurity & nutrition vulnerability in all 18 provinces Malaria cases have doubled (compared to last year) Situation aggravated by political crisis & El Niño phenomenon Mass screening planned to start in April 2016 (Kirundo, Muyinga, Makamba, Mwaro, Citiboke, Rumonge, bujumbura) Rwanda Nutrition update Nutrition situation of the overall country has remained stable, and nutrition programming are ongoing Improved nutrition situation only 51 children under treatment for SAM as of 26 th February 2016 in the Burundian refugees Assessment of underlying causes malnutrition finalized, results to be shared soon.

30 MARKETS AND TRADE UPDATE

31 Maize prices of maize in February 2016 remained stable or declined slightly compared to January levels But 2016 prices remain above 2015 levels and 5-year average in most markets, and expected to rise in line with seasonal tends across the region Price levels in exporting countries (Uganda & Tanzania) remain relatively lower than in importing countries (Sudan & Kenya).

32 Sorghum prices in February 2016 on main regional markets also remained generally stable (in Gulu & Baidoa), but rose in Gaderif and Aweil. Prices are expected to rise in line with seasonal trends across most markets in the region.

33 South Sudan: Cereal Prices (February 2016) Nominal retail prices of main staples (maize and sorghum) were higher in February compared to January Juba had highest sorghum price in February (SSP 58 per malwa); this was 28% higher than in January and 336% higher than Feb 2015 (see Figure). Drivers of high prices are: currency depreciation and reduced stocks due to the conflict, low imports due to the elections in Uganda, and localized insecurity.

34 Ethiopia: Cereal Prices (February 2016) Wholesale prices of cereals (maize, wheat & sorghum) in February were marginally higher (< 5%) than in January; but significantly higher than in Feb 2015 and the 5-year average (see Fig 2 for maize). Retail price increases reflect the impact of El Nino induced drought affecting production. Retail prices increased earlier than usual time (from April) by 6-23% in 13 markets; declined in 7 markets by up to 10%; and remained stable in 30 remaining markets monitored by WFP. This overall stability is attributed to food assistance and by subsidized sales by the government.

35 CLIMATE UPDATE

36 OUTLINE Highlight of OND 2015 observed/areas worst affected by depressed rains and/or enhanced rains Drivers of current forecast (El Nino, IOD) The MAM 2016 seasonal forecast Looking forward: Is La Nina likely

37 OND 2015 OBS OND 2015 DIFFERENCE FROM AVERAGE

38 INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE Base period: Data source: NOAA (Extended reconstructed sea surface Temperature based on COADS data

39 IOD FORECAST

40 OCEANIC NINO INDEX ONI weakened from 2.3 (month ending Jan 2016) to 2.2 (month ending Feb 2016)

41 MAM 2016 seasonal forecast

42 Looking forward: Is La Nina likely

43 The chance of El Niño gradually decreases into the spring and ENSO-neutral is favored by May-June-July (MJJ) The chance of La Niña increases to 50% in September-October-November (SON) 2016.

44 ANNEX 1: HISTORICAL ENSO EVENTS

45