Briefing on the drought in the mid-western and far-western hills and mountains and impact on household food security

Transcription

1 Briefing on the drought in the mid-western and far-western hills and mountains and impact on household food security Ministry of Agricultural Development Food Security Cluster Meeting 8 April 2016

2 Winter drought and associated food security impacts in the Karnali and Bajura Situation update and overview Poor monsoon (June-Sept 2015) led to significant production drops in summer crops (paddy, maize and millet) in the 5 Karnali districts in the mid-western region and Bajura district in the far-western region. Much lower cumulative rainfall during the winter period (Nov 2015 to Jan 2016) than in a normal year. Winter drought expected to greatly reduce winter crop (wheat, barley) harvest in May Deterioration in food security reported by NeKSAP district food security networks in each of last 3 meetings: July 2015, November 2015, & March Situation is forecasted to get worse between March-July Current drought being referred as worst in 30 years. It is as bad as or worse than last large-scale droughts in 2006 and 2009 in the same region. Region is chronically food insecure & among most vulnerable in Nepal. Immediate and medium-term food security situation is a matter of great concern.

3 What we know about the drought and current food security situation Latest information available 1. Satellite-based earth observation data and analysis (ICIMOD) Rainfall levels and anomalies Drought conditions based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) NDVI (vegetation conditions during growing season) 2. Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (NeKSAP) NeKSAP district food security networks (DFSNs), March 2016 (most recent) and previous two rounds (November 2015, July 2015) NeKSAP food security phase classification by VDC in 6 districts* Estimated population in need in VDCs classified as Phase 3 in 6 districts* (*to be updated for 74 districts in mid-april)

4 Rainfall in the winter period (Nov-Jan) was very low compared to the historical average 4 maps of rainfall conditions Map 1 Map 2 Map 1: 30-year average cumulative rainfall during months of Nov, Dec, & Jan Map 2: Cumulative rainfall observed this season (Nov-2015 to Jan-2016) Map 3: Rainfall deficit observed this season (Nov-2015 to Jan-2016) Map 4: Percent difference in cumulative rainfall this season (Nov-2015 to Jan- 2016) compared to the normal level (30-year average). E.g., In parts of Mugu, only 35% of rainfall received in a normal year Map 3 Map 4 Map: Cumulative rainfall during November January 2016 Source: ICIMOD, based on CHIRPS data

5 HUMLA DARCHULA BAJHANG MUGU BAJURA DOLPA BAITADI JUMLA KALIKOT DOTI DADELDHURA ACHHAM MUSTANG KANCHANPUR JAJARKOT DAILEKH KAILALI RUKUM SURKHET BARDIYA SALYAN BAGLUNG ROLPA PYUTHAN BANKE DANG ARGHAKHANCHI KAPILBASTU Drought conditions across the mid-western and far-western regions Agricultural drought conditions in many districts Extreme drought conditions in parts of 9 districts, mostly in Mugu, Dolpa, Humla, Jumla, Bajura, and Bajhang. Severe drought conditions in parts of many districts in the mid-western and farwestern regions. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Normal Dry Moderate drought Severe drought Extreme drought

6 Vegetation conditions in agriculture and rangelands areas, mid & far western regions Weak vegetation conditions in 2016 are more severe and affect a much larger geographic area than last year January* 2015 January* 2016 Good * In normal years January is considered the peak of greenness for the wheat crop. Weak Based on MODIS (MOD13Q1) NDVI data

7 What we know about the drought and current food security situation Latest information available 1. Satellite-based earth observation data and analysis (ICIMOD) Rainfall levels and anomalies Drought conditions based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) NDVI (vegetation conditions during growing season) 2. Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (NeKSAP) NeKSAP district food security networks (DFSNs), March 2016 (most recent) and previous two rounds (November 2015, July 2015) NeKSAP food security phase classification by VDC in 6 districts* Estimated population in need in VDCs classified as Phase 3 in 6 districts* (*to be updated for 74 districts in mid-april)

8 NeKSAP food security phase classification, mid-november 2015 to mid-march 2016 Latest round, held early March

9 NeKSAP food security phase classification, mid-july 2015 to mid-november 2015 Previous round, held Nov-2015

10 NeKSAP food security phase classification, mid-march 2015 to mid-july 2015 Previous round, held July-2015

11 Proportion of VDCs Number of VDCs/Municipalities by NeKSAP food security phase classification by round Results of the last 3 rounds of district food security network meetings in the 5 Karnali districts and Bajura Early March 100% % 64 60% % 65 20% mid-mar 15 to mid-jul 15 mid-jul 15 to mid-nov mid-nov 15 to mid-mar 16 0% Minimally food insecure Moderately food insecure Highly food insecure Source: NeKSAP district food security networks,

12 Latest food security phase classification map (mid-november 2015 to mid-march 2016) RE-CAP OF LATEST NeKSAP UPDATE Food security impact of the drought and other stressors Phase 3 = highly food insecure, or crisis: Household food consumption gaps are higher than normal and households are able to meet minimum food needs only through the accelerated depletion of livelihood assets. Phase 2 = moderately food insecure, or stressed Households are able to meet minimum food needs with traditional coping strategies but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies. Source: NeKSAP district food security networks, March 2016 Phase 1 = minimally food insecure Households can secure food and non-food needs without shifting or changing livelihood strategies.

13 Population in need, March 2016* (* to be updated in April following the completion of all 74 NeKSAP district meetings) Estimated affected population: 150,000 people In NeKSAP, the population in need is only calculated for VDCs classified as Phase 3 (highly food insecure) or higher. Currently, approximately 150,000 people in 59 VDCs in 5 districts (see table below) are considered highly food insecure. Districts VDCs in Phase 3 Total population in Phase 3 VDCs Population in Phase 3 (affected) Affected population (% of total) Bajura 13 53,882 43,000 80% Dolpa 6 6,676 5,300 80% Mugu 12 23,000 23, % Humla 18 38,400 38, % Kalikot 10 49,723 40,000 80% Total , ,000 ~87% Source: NeKSAP district food security networks, March 2016

14 Current food security situation Contributing factors to deterioration in food security Poor summer crop production: dry spells, late monsoon, fuel shortage, and pests resulted in production drops ranging from 20-60%, especially in Mugu, Humla and Bajura. Reduced income: Value of yarchagumba in summer 2015 was significantly lower than in previous years. Reduced wage income opportunities (20-60%) due to cold weather and fuel shortage and administrative issues (first trimester of FY 2015/16). Shortage of essential goods and food price increases: Seasonal variations, the disruptions to cross-border trade with India, the subsequent fuel crisis and reduced transportation services all negatively affected supply and prices in these areas. Low household food stocks: Households are already running out of food stocks due to summer crop losses. The winter crop, which will be harvested in May, will not suffice for more than 1 month. Safety net insufficient: Nepal Food Corporation (NFC) supplies of subsidized rice are inadequate (e.g., Bajura) or not reaching the neediest (e.g., 6 VDCs in upper Dolpa). And the poorest cannot afford to buy subsidized rice, even if available. Food gap: Households are expected to have a food gap now (March-April) and during the monsoon and autumn (June-Nov). Next summer crop harvest is in November.

15 Livelihood and migration patterns Livelihoods are at risk and out-migration as a distress coping strategy - has increased Major livelihood sources in mid-western and far-western mountains include: Agriculture Wage labor Non timber forest products (NTFPs), e.g., yarchagumba Seasonal migration (November-May) to India NeKSAP district food security networks report that out-migration has increased with the poor summer crop production and on-going winter drought. For instance: In Humla, out-migration is estimated to have increased by 20%; In Bajura, it has increased by 30-35%, and it is reported that at least one member has out-migrated from each household in food insecure VDCs In Mugu, it has increased by 25%, but is much higher in worst affected areas, e.g., in Viyee VDC, >80% of Dalit households have at least one member who has migrated for employment

16 Food security outlook in the next 4 months (mid-march to mid-july 2016) District food security networks forecast a higher number of VDCs in Phases 2, 3 and 4 in the Karnali and Bajura Reasons cited: Production drops in summer crops Winter lean period: Feb-May Poor production for winter crops expected due to drought: 35 to 80 percent decrease in wheat and barley (DADO estimates) Income from NTFPs, including yarchagumba, will help mitigate situation in some areas. However, poor snowfall may decrease yarchagumba collection in summer 2016 Food security situation is likely to further deteriorate if affected population do not receive any assistance NeKSAP food security phase classification Phase 1 (minimally food insecure) Phase 2 (moderately food insecure) Phase 3 (highly food insecure) Phase 4 (severely food insecure) # of VDCs by phase in mid- March 2016 to mid-july 2016 Districts and # of VDCs 36 Jumla (16) and Kalikot (20) Jumla (14), Mugu (12), Kalikot (10), and Bajura (11) Humla (9), Mugu (12), Bajura (13), and Dolpa (17) 24 Dolpa (6), Humla (18) Source: NeKSAP district food security networks, March 2016

17 Partnerships in action Food security monitoring and analysis in Nepal The Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (known as NeKSAP, an acronym of Nepal Khadhya Surakshya Anugaman Pranali) is a nationwide food security monitoring system. NeKSAP is jointly operated by the Ministry of Agricultural Development and WFP under the strategic guidance of the National Planning Commission and with support from the European Union and UK aid from the UK government. NeKSAP is currently being institutionalized within the government at the national, regional, and district levels. The core of NeKSAP is the District Food Security Network (DFSN). DFSNs operate in 74 of 75 districts. DFSN members include the CDO, LDO, DADO, DHO, and other districtlevel line agencies, international and national NGOs, and the private sector (e.g., FNCCI). Partnerships with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) have expanded the use and integration of new technologies in crop monitoring and assessment in NeKSAP.

18 Technical annex slides Context and background information Seasonality and food consumption patterns in the mountains Market situation, food prices, and household purchasing power, Prevalence of stunting, 2011 Integrated food security phase classification, chronic food insecurity analysis, 2014 Recurrence of acute food security crises, Food self-sufficiency, Historical perspective (2006 drought) Historical perspective (2009 drought) NeKSAP food security phase classifications, : 3 years to normalize after the last major drought in 2009

19 Technical annex Context/background information Mid-western and far-western hills and mountains: Remote areas, limited roads Low agricultural production and Low population density productivity (see map, following slide) Chronically poor and food insecure areas Fragile livelihoods (see table below) Poor market integration; higher prices Frequent shocks lead to recurrent acute food insecurity (see map, following slide) District Stunting (% under-5) Underweight (% under-5) Wasting (% under-5) Food poverty (% HHs) Low calorie intake (% HHs) Poverty (% of HHs) Dolpa Jumla Kalikot Mugu Humla Bajura Source: CBS/World Bank/WFP/Unicef, Small area estimation studies, 2013

20 Technical annex Seasonality and food consumption patterns in the mountains Source: NPC/CBS/WFP/World Bank/Unicef/AusAID, Nepal thematic report on food security and nutrition, 2013

21 Kg of rice from one day s wage Source: WFP Technical annex Price NPR/kg Market situation, food prices, and household purchasing power, Markets in the mountains eco-belt 80 Retail price of coarse rice by eco-belt, Poorly integrated with major and regional markets (e.g. Nepalgunj) Poor transportation infrastructure Frequent supply constraints Large price differentials between major/regional and remote markets In 2015, prices in the mountains are more than 73% and 56% higher than in the Terai and hills, respectively In the mountains, the price of rice increased by 20% in 2015 compared to 2014 Household purchasing power (terms of trade) is lower in the mountains due to high food prices and limited employment opportunities Mountain Hill Terai Terms of Trade by eco-belt, Mountain Hill Terai Average

22 Technical annex Prevalence of stunting, 2011 Chronic undernutrition is concentrated in the midwestern and far-western hills and mountains Source: CBS/WFP/World Bank/Unicef, Small area estimation of food insecurity and undernutrition in Nepal, 2014

23 Technical annex Integrated food security phase classification, chronic food insecurity analysis, 2014 Source: MoAD/NeKSAP/FAO, IPC Chronic Food Insecurity Analysis, Nepal, December, 2014.

24 Technical annex Recurrence* of acute food security crises, Source: NeKSAP district food security networks, ; time-series analysis, WFP, *Recurrence of VDCs classified as Phase 2 or higher by NeKSAP district food security networks,

25 Technical annex Food self-sufficiency, 2014/15 All the districts in the Karnali and the far-western mountains are unable to meet local consumption requirements through local production of cereals. Dolpa, Kalikot, Humla and Bajura were severely food deficit in 2014/15 Map: Food self-sufficiency at district level, Source: Ministry of Agricultural Development

26 Technical annex Historical perspective (2006 drought) 2006: Driest winter since 1960 with winter rainfall less than 30% of normal. Some areas received no precipitation from November 2005 to February Winter crops: failed by %. Worst affected districts: Humla, Mugu, Dolpa, Jumla, Kalikot, Bajura, Dailekh, Jajarkot, Rukum, and Rolpa. Affected population: approx. 270,000

27 Technical annex Historical perspective (2009 drought) 2009: Widespread dry spell in mid- and far-western hills and mountains. Winter crops declined sharply: 50-70% in far-western hills and mountains 30-50% in the Karnali and Rapti- Bheri sub-regions Worst affected districts: Humla, Mugu, Dolpa, Jumla, Kalikot, Bajura, Dailekh, Jajarkot, Rukum, Rolpa, Bajhang, Darchula, Baitadi, Dadeldhura, Doti, and Achham. Affected population: approx. 500,000

28 NeKSAP food security phase classifications, : 3 years to normalize after the last major drought in 2009 Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec