National Drought Management Authority TURKANA COUNTY DROUGHT MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING BULLETIN - JANUARY 2014

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1 National Drought Management Authority TURKANA COUNTY DROUGHT MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING BULLETIN - JANUARY 2014 LIVELIHOOD MAP WARNING STAGES Livelihood Zone Pastoral-all species Agro-Pastoral Fisheries Formal Employment/Casual Labour COUNTY Warning Stage Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Trend Worsening Worsening Worsening Worsening Worsening Seasonal Calendar Start of Long rains Start of Short Rains Dry Season Long Rains Dry Cool Season Short Rains Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 1

2 Situation Overview In January 2014, Turkana County received very poor or no rainfall in the first week and preceding weeks. Only Lokichoggio, Lomelo, Kibish and Kerio recorded traces during the month. All areas recorded below mm of normal rains; for example the Lodwar Meteorological station recorded 0.0 mm which was a decrease from 1.2 mm recorded in the month of December The highest amounts of rains were received in the pastoral (0.12 mm) areas while the least in Agro Pastoral livelihood (0.10 mm). Quality and quantity of pasture and browse in dry season grazing areas was fair in many areas of the county. The pasture and browse was below normal. The Pasture and Browse was good in Agro pastoralist livelihood zones and poor in pastoralist Zone. Two conflict incidences were reported in January This was a decrease from six cases reported in December These conflicts are below the normal. The average household walking distances to and from water sources increased from 5.28 km recorded in the previous month to 5.35 km. The distance is above normal. The highest distances were recorded in the Pastoralist livelihood zone while the least was recorded in the Agro Pastoral. Household Livestock body condition was generally fair in many areas of the county. In the Agro pastoral, the condition was good. It was fair in most areas of pure Pastoral zones. The mortality rate for household livestock population decreased from 2.83% in December 2013 to 2.68% in January The mortality rates are below normal. The highest mortality rate was recorded in the fisheries livelihood while the lowest in Agro pastoral. The average birth rate for household livestock population was %. The birth rate is below normal. High births were recorded in pure Pastoral livelihood while the lowest was recorded in the Agro pastoralist. Household milk production across the Turkana County decreased from 29.01% in December 2013 to 19.68% in January Household livestock sales rate increased from 0.97% in December 2013 to 1.43% in January The highest rate was recorded in pure pastoral (1.40%) while the least was in fisheries zone (0.60%). During the first week of the month, there has been claims that unidentified flees have been reported killing kids and lambs by penetrating the skin and sucking blood. Most health centers recorded confirmed Malaria (2376 cases), Urinal track infection (168 cases), Diarrhoea (2060 cases), Dysentery (58 cases) and chicken pox (14 cases). 4 cases of measles were were reported. The most affected is the Pure Pastoral livelihood zone while the least is the Fisheries and Agro Pastoral. The percentage of children below five years at risk of malnutrition increased to 21.47% in January 2014 from 20.6% the previous month of December The risk of malnutrition was above normal of 20.77%. The most affected livelihood zone is the pastoral (20.8%) while the least affected is the fisheries (18.2%). Recommendations to County Authorities and National KFSSG by the D.S.G Support the meteorological station in monitoring, installation of automatic weather stations and payment of casuals to ensure efficient collection of data from sentinel sites EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 2

3 Early warning system feedback, rapid food security database creation and quarterly meetings to be supported. Provide relief food to the communities affected Extend food for assets (FFA) and cash for work (CFW) programs to the untargeted communities through proper survey. The Department of Agriculture to support post-harvest Management Programs and stockpile supportive farm inputs for farmers. Establish mechanisms to control herders /farmers conflicts. Marketing structures for crop harvests/livestock to be improved. Livestock off-take should be started and business or banking venture to be encouraged Grazing Reserve management activities to be encouraged Reactivate rapid response team to undertake immediate repairs of malfunctioning water points. Repair of all broken down water points and provision of fuel subsidy to all motorized engines across the county. Water trucking in water stressed areas for community and schools. Repair all Government water trucks/bowsers and purchase tyres to enable water trucking. Foster and capacity build communities on community managed disaster risk reduction activities and inclusion of Early warning system training to all stakeholders The Ministry of Health to Increase the coverage of High Impact Nutrition Interventions especially in Lomelo, Loima, Kakuma, Kainuk, Kibish and Lapur Divisions. Actively link households that reported malnourished children, pregnant and lactating mothers to General Food Distribution (GFD)/FFA/CFW to avoid sharing of Food Supplements. Support to Hygiene and Sanitation promotion activities Improvement of Conflict Early warning system to monitor the trends within and outside the County. The Kenya Wildlife Service should control predators that attack livestock and humans. Regular negotiations with regional governments (Uganda, South Sudan and Ethiopia) and Counties for free movement of Turkana pastoralists who frequently cross borders in search of water and pasture More security personnel should be deployed in hotspot areas. Provision of fishing gears, sensitization of Beach Management Units on Business entrepreneurship and group dynamics to the fisher folks along Lake Turkana to be continued. Current Interventions Non-food Interventions Community Managed Disaster risk reduction and Early Warning System Training by The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. Water trucking and Construction of water storage facilities to communities stressed by the County Government and VSF- Germany respectively. Community Rangeland development and Drug store construction and equipping by County Government with the support of VSF- Germany. EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 3

4 Phase II of Hunger Safetynet Programm awareness and targeting by the National Drought Management Authority with support from Department for International Development (DFID) and Australian Aid. Food Aid World Food Programme/ other Development Partners Therapeutic Integrated Management of Acute Malnutrition for the Under-fives, Pregnant and Lactating Mothers (SFP, OTP &SC) by MOPHS supported by WFP, International Rescue Committee, UNICEF, WVK, Oxfam GB, Kenya Red Cross Society and Merlin. Relief food (General Food aid) and Food for Assets program by NDMA and County Government ministries in support of Food aid Partners in county Environmental and Grazing Conditions (Stability) Rainfall Amount of Rainfall In January 2014, Turkana County received very poor/no in the first week and presiding weeks. Only Lokichoggio, Lomelo, Kibish and Kerio recorded trace during the month. All areas recorded below mm of normal rains; for example the Lodwar Meteorological station recorded 0.0 mm which was a decrease from 1.2 mm recorded in the month of December The highest amounts of rains were received in the pastoral (0.12 mm) areas while the least in Agro Pastoral livelihood (0.10 mm). Temporal Distribution The onset for the month was from the 1 st week of 2014 in few parts of the County. The end of rain for the month was early as the 1 st week. The rains had a complete false start in few parts areas and the progression of rains was poor. The forecast for the rains was derived from satellite images for the respective month. Spatial Distribution Distribution of rains was very poor across all livelihood zones. Other Outstanding Observations The Rainfall Estimates (RFE) information for Turkana County increased to 98.05% below normal recorded in the month of January 2014 compared to the previous month of December 2013 which recorded 70.71% below normal. EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 4

5 Averagely for the month of January 2014, the satellite RFE images for all divisions recorded 0.12 mm compared to month of December 2013 which recorded RFE of 6.24 mm. The greatest figure of RFE (a total of 0.25 mm) was recorded by satellite in Lomelo division Natural Vegetation and Pasture Condition Quality The condition of Natural vegetation and Pasture is fair and slightly below normal in few parts of the County as the rains were received in a few areas during the previous months. EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 5

6 Quantity The change in vegetation condition has been experienced since the rains were received in those areas e.g. (Lokichoggio, Lomelo, Kibish and Kerio Divisions and their environs). The amount of vegetation/pasture for the month of January 2014 was fair. There has been a significant change of vegetation from the previous month of December Compared to the normal year, the amount of vegetation/pasture during the month was below normal. Most areas have decreased in Vegetation Health and Density based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation index received in dekad 1, 2 and 3 of January The density is below normal as shown in the graph. Distance to Grazing Areas The average grazing distance (between the main grazing areas and livestock concentration points) for the month of December 2013 was 9.42 km this was an increase from 5.6 km recorded in the previous month. The highest average grazing distance of 9.1 km was recorded in the Pastoral zone while the lowest was recorded in agro pastoral with average distances of 8.4 km. EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 6

7 1.3.0 Water Sources and Availability Use of Water Sources The main water sources currently being used by both human and livestock population are traditional hand dug wells at 33%. There has been a decrease in the water flowing in the two main rivers of Turkwel and Kerio at the mid of the month. Currently, the Pastoral (all species) depend on traditional hand dug wells while the Agro Pastoral and Fisheries still depend on natural rivers and Lakes respectively. Household access to water During the month under review, average household walking distances to and from water sources increased from 5.28 km in the previous month to 5.35 Km. The distance recorded for this month is below the normal year distance of 7.5 km. The highest distance was recorded in the pure pastoral (6 km) while the least was recorded in the Agro Pastoral (1.3 km). EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 7

8 1.4.0 Emerging Issues Conflicts and Human Displacement issues During the month there has been decreased cases of conflict between Turkana residents and their neighbours, this has resulted to death of at least 4 people. This has also led to loss of livestock which is the livelihood of the residents. During the month of January 2014, raiders from Southern Sudan raided Kibish division and killed three travellers on foot while surveying the livestock in the area later on made away with unknown number of cattle. On 1 st January 2014 Lokwamosing in Lokori division was raided by their neighbours and as a result to one herdsman being killed and the other injured goats and sheep were driven away Migration Few pastoral herders are moved towards the wet season grazing areas (low lands) in search of water, and pasture. Most animals of Loima and Oropoi had moved to Uganda (Loteere) in search of pasture and water. They are expected to return soon since in Uganda there is enough pasture but no permanent water sources which raises the conflicts through not visible. Animals of Tulabalany have moved to upper areas of Loima hills, Lokipoto and Loteere Conflict within the host community and refugees. During the month of January 2014 there has been increased pressure in the Refugees and internally displaced persons over the issue of support in General Food distribution Other Factors likely to affect livelihoods Overcrowding of persons in certain areas due to availability of social amenities and the fear of attacks by raiders from the neighbouring counties/countries. 1.5 Implication on Food Security The seasonal change is causing households to move to more secure areas in search of water, and pasture. This may result in an increase of food crisis in most of the areas where they go to or leave. EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 8

9 2.0.0 Rural Economy (Livestock & Agriculture Production) (Food Availability) Livestock Production & Marketing Livestock Body Condition Generally the animal body condition of most livestock species was fair in the month of January The effect of reduced rainfall is yet to be felt as there is still some pasture in some areas where pastoralists migrate to. The livestock in Agro Pastoral had a good body condition while those in the pure pastoral areas were fair Livestock health condition (in terms of diseases) The diseases reported were Mange, Poxes and Trypanosomiasis in both camels and Cattle; Mange and Hemorrhagic Septicemia in sheep; and the Contagious Bovine Pleural Pneumonia (CBPP) and Contagious Caprine Pleural Pneumonia (CCPP) in cattle and goats respectively. These diseases have been reported to reduce during the month of January Milk Production During the month of January 2014, the average milk produced was 19.68% per household. This was a decrease from 29.01% recorded in the previous month. The highest milk level was recorded in the pure pastoral (28.75%) while the least in the Fisheries zone (0.1 %) Crop production Timeliness and condition of Crop Some households in the agro pastoral zones were preparing land during the month of January 2014 especially along the river banks of Turkwel and Kerio. Some crops are still in the fields at irrigation schemes and are at harvesting stage the condition is good. Timeliness of harvests during the month in some areas was also reported Pest and Diseases Currently, major pest infestation is Aphids, weevils, cutworms, army worms and Diamond black moth which affecting crops in the irrigated crops. Moreover Tree locusts are still being reported in Lomelo, Kakuma, Lokitaung, Kaaleng and Lapur divisions. A major disease that is affecting the crops in the field is the maize/sorghum smut Harvest In January 2014, some communities along the Rivers Turkwel and Kerio realized minimal/no harvests. However, compared to the normal year, the quantity produced during the month was far below normal due to erratic rains. On average, the harvests in agro pastoral and pastoral (all species) zones during the month were below normal while fisheries zones had no harvests at all Implication on Food Security The food security situation is expected to worsen owing to the cumulative effects of the above conditions in the most areas of the irrigation schemes. EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 9

10 3.0.0 Access to Food Livestock Marketing Cattle Prices The average price of a medium size bull in January 2014 was Ksh.17, 500 this was a slight decrease from Ksh. 17, recorded in the month of December The highest price for one medium sized was Ksh. 17,500 which was recorded in the Agro pastoral. Relative to the Normal year, the value recorded is above normal as shown in the table below Goat Prices The average household price of a medium sized goat during the month of January 2014 was Ksh 2,250 this was a decrease from Ksh 2, recorded in the month of December The highest goat prices were recorded in the pure pastoral zone (Ksh. 2236) while the lowest were recorded in the Agro pastoral zone (Ksh 2000). Relative to the normal year, the value recorded is above normal as shown in the table above Sheep Prices The average household price of medium sheep during the month of January 2014 was Ksh. 2,045. This was a decrease compared to Ksh 2,418 recorded in the month of December EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 10

11 The highest household price of sheep was recorded in Pastoral (Ksh 2,075.5) while the lowest was in the agro pastoral zone. Relative to the Normal year, the value recorded is above normal Camel Prices The household average price of a medium camel during the month of January 2014 was Ksh. 25,100 This was a decrease from Ksh 25, 500 recorded in December Livestock Sales The major livestock species that traded at household during the month of January 2014 were Goats. The County had an increase in livestock sales rate, from 0.97% in December 2013 to 1.43% in January The pure pastoral zone recorded the highest (1.40%) livestock sales rate at the household while the lowest was the fisheries zone with (0.35%). This livestock sale rates value is above normal compared to the same period of the reference year Milk Consumption The trend in milk consumption at household is that it has decreased, the month of January 2014 had (15.47%) a decrease from 22.9%) in December The highest consumption was recorded in the pure pastoral zone (22.53%) while the least in the fisheries (0.1%). EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 11

12 3.4.0 Crop Prices (Maize, Posho & Sorghum) Maize Price In January 2014, household average cereal price for maize across the county was Ksh. 84 per kilogram indicating an increase from Ksh recorded in the previous Month of December The price of maize was lowest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh. 60) while Pastoral zone (Ksh.94.38) recorded the highest prices of that commodity. The price is above normal compared to the value of Ksh recorded Posho (Maize meal flour) Price In the month of January 2014, the average market price for posho across the Turkana County was Ksh per kilogram. This price was an increase from Ksh recorded in the month of December The market price of posho was lowest in the agro pastoral zone (Ksh ) while fisheries zones (Ksh.90.8) recorded the highest prices. This posho price is above the normal Sorghum Price During the month of January 2014, the average sorghum price at the market was Ksh This was an increase from Kshs recorded in the month of December This price is above normal price Other Major Food crops/major Purchased (Beans) During the month of January 2014, the average market price of Beans across the county was Ksh per kilogram.this was a decrease from Ksh recorded in the month of December 2013.The market price of beans was highest in the fisheries livelihood zone (Ksh.123.3) while the Agro Pastoral zone had the lowest of Ksh.103 The Beans price is above the normal Income Crops During the month of January 2014, there was little sales of own crops especially in few areas of agro pastoral livelihood zones. The sales were below normal compared to normal year Other Income (Trade, Wages, etc.) Salaries In January 2014, fair salaries at household level were recorded. EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 12

13 Trade During the month of January 2014, trade recorded by the population engaged in small scale trading in most urban and Peri-urban centers were 21%; this was an decrease from 21% recorded in the previous month of December The trading activities are below normal. Wages In the month under review, the average daily wage rate paid to casual workers was Ksh A decrease from Kshs in December The highest wage rate was recorded in the pastoral (Ksh ) while the lowest being in the fisheries (Ksh ) Terms of Trade Pastoralists Purchasing Power in terms of trade (Cereal: Meat Price Ratio) The cereal: meat price ratio in January 2014 was 0.95, which was a slight increase from 0.93 recorded in December The highest ratio was recorded in fisheries zone (1.2) while the lowest recorded in Agro pastoral (0.79). The ratio was below normal compared to the referenced year s ( ) Implications on Food Security The increase in cereal: meat ratio may have a negative effect on the food security situation in Turkana County Pastoral Welfare (Utilization of Food) Nutritional Status Malnutrition The percentage of children below five years at risk of malnutrition slightly increased from 20.6% in December 2013 to 21.47% in January 2014.The most affected is the pure pastoral zone (20.8%) while the least is the fisheries (18.2%).The reported is for all children below mid upper arm circumference of 135 mm. The highest malnutrition was reported in the county due to improper targeting of children at risk especially Loima (62.6%), Nachukui (31.3%), Napusmoru(41%), and Lokapel (48%) Sentinel sites EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 13

14 Health Most health centers recorded confirmed Malaria (2376 cases), Urinal track infection (168 cases), Diarrhoea (2060 cases), Dysentery (58 cases) and chicken pox (14 cases). These cases have been reported to decrease from 2376, 168, 2060, 58 and 14 for confirmed malaria, Urinal track infection, Diarrhoea and measles respectively. However, Measles (4 case) was reported to increase from 0 cases. The most affected is the Pure Pastoral livelihood zone while the least is the Fisheries and Agro Pastoral. (Source of Dataset is from the Kenya s Health information System period of November 28, 2013 to December 28, 2013). Poor Sanitation is a major problem in the Turkana County. This problem is compounded by lack of poor soil and lack of technical expertise Flagged Area Communities in the pure pastoral livelihood zone need more attention and then they are closely followed by those in the fisheries, and lastly the agro pastoral livelihood zones. This is because affected by high Cereal prices, increased migration, lower crop production and high malnutrition. Communities in Kerio Division, Lokitaung Division, Kaaleng Division, Lokichar(Kalapata, Loperot, Kangakipur), Oropoi,(Lokipoto, Lochor angierengo, Nawotom, Loito, Loreng), Lomelo Division(Napeitom, Lomelo, Kapedo), Lomil, Nameyana and Napeililim in Turkwel Division, Loima Division and Kibish Sub County need more attention as they are food insecure Coping Strategies and other copying strategies Coping strategies index (0 to 10), the month of January 2014 was 2.17 this was a slight decrease from 2.33 recorded in December The highest index was recorded in fisheries zone with a value of 2.1 while the lowest was in the Agro pastoral with a value of 1.9. Aloe Vera, minerals, Baskets, Beads and Mats Selling are among other copying strategies practiced at the household level. EWS BULLETIN, JANUARY TURKANA COUNTY 14