National Drought Management Authority Tana River County Drought Early Warning Bulletin For June 2015

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1 National Drought Management Authority Tana River County Drought Early Warning Bulletin For June 2015 Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification JUNE Biophysical EW Indicators PHASE The biophysical indicators show positive fluctuations within the expected seasonal ranges. There were heavy rainfall received within the early month of June. The vegetation conditions are gradually improving with the overall county VCI of falling above the normal ranges of Galole and Garsen recorded a VCI of and which is a greater improvement compared to last month. The situation is normal in Bura (with a VCI of 45.03) sub-county indicating normal condition on a reducing trend compared to last month. SPI for May improved at This was as a result of ongoing long rains. Currently the state of water sources is at the range of 4 in the county. This is normal range and the situation is expected to improve with the progressing long rains. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) There are no unusual livestock migration patterns noted in the county, however with the ongoing long rains, massive migrations of livestock moving towards the pastoral areas of Assa, Kone and Wayu that had received some rainfall. Livestock body condition for cattle, goats and sheep is good within mixed livelihood zones but fair in both Pastoral and Marginal mixed. This is expected to improve with the ongoing rains. Utilization indicators Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Pastoral Normal Stable Marginal Mixed Farming Normal Stable Mixed Farming Normal improving Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges % of average rainfall (Dec >91.00 mm Jan) mm VCI-3month(June) State of Water Sources 4 5 SPI(May) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Normal Normal Pattern Livestock Body Conditions Milk Production 63(ltrs) >102(ltrs) Livestock deaths (for No death No death drought) Crops area planted (%) N/A 67%of LTA Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 105 >60 Milk Consumption 38(ltrs) >44(ltrs) Water for Households 1.89 km The malnutrition status of children under the age of 5 years that are at risk improved to 8% from 13% of the month of May. This is expected to improve if the current conditions Utilization prevails. indicators Value Normal Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is above normal at this ranges time of the year. MUAC 8% <12.5(%) Coping Strategy Index (CSI) Current Drought Risk Low Medium High With the ongoing long rains, the drought risks level becomes low indicating normal condition. The drought risks level is expected to be on the low side due to current rainfall. If the ongoing Long rains performs as expected, the drought risk situation will continue being normal and improving scenario developing. This will eventually lead to further improvement of both pasture and water. The current pasture and water can sustain the current livestock population in the county for a period of more than 2 month.

2 Rainfall amount(mm) BIO-PHASYCAL INDICATORS 1. MEASURING DROUGHT HAZARD 1.1 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT Rainfall: Amount of rainfall The County received an average rainfall of mm within the month of June. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of mm, the current rainfall situation reveals a below normal trend during this period of the year. Temporal distribution The county is currently experiencing long rain season as per the seasonal calendar. Heavy Showers experienced in early June in parts of Tana River and Tana Delta Sub-Counties.Light showers experienced within Tana North. Spatial distribution Bura division recorded an average of mm, Madogo division recorded an average of 1.00 mm, Galole division recorded an average of 69 mm, Tarassa recorded mm, Bangale division recorded 1.20 mm, Garsen division recorded an average of mm and Kipini Division recorded an average of mm. Rainfall station data: Tana River County Rainfall Distribution as compared to avarages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec LTA( ) Fig 1. Fig 1 shows an example of rainfall analysis: The June rainfall amounts to only mm against the long term rainfall average for the period amounting to mm. 2

3 On the above seasonal graph, cumulative rainfall for 2015, the long rains of Dec-May were below historical averages but slightly below Good year s averages ( ) but far above the Bad year ( ) 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT The Vegetation Condition Index for the whole County is currently at which is within the very good VCI range of >50. This indicates that the county is currently experiencing normal conditions. If long rains perform as expected the vegetation cover will continue to improve further. Fig 2. The vegetation conditions worsened in Bura (Tana North) sub-county but still within Normal ranges. Galole and Garsen sub-county s currently phasing good vegetation cover. Fig 3. In the figure above, the VCI for Bura in June is currently at 45.03, compared to last months of The Vegetation cover worsened. This still indicates Normal Conditions within Bura and Tana North as a whole. 3

4 Fig 4. In the figure 4 above, the Vegetation cover for Galole is currently at compared to last month s VCI of 60.49, the VCI Improved in the month of June.This indicates good condition of drought phase within Galole sub-county. Fig 5. In the fig 5 above, the VCI for Garsen is currently at compared to last month s VCI of 44.96, the VCI improved in the month of June indicating Normal conditions within Galole Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Quality The pasture and browse condition is currently good in the mixed livelihood zones. However, pasture condition is fair in most parts of the pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones. This will continue to improve if the long rains continue to pound in all livelihood zones but currently there are no rainfall and this will affect that status of pasture and browse in all livelihood zones. Current forage is estimated to last for not less than one months. With the current conditions, most herds are within the traditional grazing fields of Tana North. Quantity The quantity of Pasture and browse within the County is currently normal. In comparison to the month of May, the quantity of pasture and browse within the County has decreased and this is attributed lack of rains from mid-june. This has affected regeneration of pasture. The overall conditions are reflecting stable scenario and may sustain for the next one month if the present conditions prevails. 4

5 Distances in Kilometers 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT Water Resource With No rains from mid-june, water levels have decreased in water reservoirs. Currently the available water can last for not less than two months. There is no water stress in Mixed and Marginal mixed livelihood zones but Pastoral livelihood zones are currently facing water stress. Most of the catchment pools/natural ponds still have water while the volumes in the pans/dams have decreased Household access to Water Most of the communities within the Marginal mixed livelihood zones and the Mixed farming livelihood zones depend on natural rivers for both domestic and livestock consumption. Communities within the pastoral livelihood depend on pans and dams for both domestic and livestock consumption. The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of June was 2.40 kilometres. In comparison to the month of May where distances covered from the households to the main water sources was 2.03 Kilometres, the distances increased. This is attributed to the fact that rains have stopped for the last 2 weeks which has resulted to reduction of water levels in water reservoirs. Households within Mixed livelihood zones takes an average of 1.0 hrs to water points compared to households within Pastoral livelihood zones which takes 2.1 hrs to water points, the current distances are normal. Communities within the Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones are covering longer distances in search of water Livestock access to water The average distances covered by livestock from the grazing areas to main water sources in the month of June were 4.74 kilometres. In comparison to the month of May where the livestock covered 4.97 kilometres, the distances covered by the livestock in the month of June remained stable. This stability in distance covered by livestock from grazing areas to main water sources is attributed to the ongoing long rains. This has led to recharge of water reservoirs across all livelihood zones. The distances are below the mean at this time of the year Tana River County distance to gracing as compared to averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep. Oct Nov Dec mean max min Fig 6. 5

6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production Livestock Ownership Livestock Migration Patterns Livestock are currently at the traditional grazing grounds of Tana North and Tana River respectively. These minimal movements have reduced tension between the Farmers and the Pastoralists over pasture Livestock Body Condition Livestock body conditions are generally at Borderline with a score of 5 and some areas have started showing signs of improvement more so within the Mixed and Marginal mixed livelihood zones. This is attributed to ongoing long rains which has led to available of water, pasture and browse. Therefore livestock are not walking long distances in search of these resources. With the ongoing long rains this is expected to change for the better. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Fig 7. Emaciated, little muscle left 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3 Alert Worsening/Alarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th & 13th ribs visible 4 Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 5 Normal/Alert Good smooth appearance 6 Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head 7 Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible 8 Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks reported, however CCPP, CBPP outbreak reported in Tana River and Tana Delta, Trypanosomiasis and worms also remained endemic across the livelihood zones. The areas affected are Garsen,Assa,Nanighi and Kone Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Tana River County was 63 litres in the month of June 2015.There is an increase in production compared to last month. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is far below normal average of litres. This increase is attributed to the availability of enough pasture and browse which has led to availability of water and pasture. 6

7 milk production in litres Tana River County Milk production as compared with averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept oct Nov Dec Max Min Mean Fig Livestock deaths No major livestock deaths reported in the month of June. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Date of Planting and Area planted Farmers had already planted their crops which are at late stages of growth. Currently the ongoing activity is weeding of crops. Most areas already planted were within Tana Delta, Bura and Hola irrigation Schemes. During the current long rains season, the area planted was about 1,575 Hectares compared to long term average of 2,351 Hectares Stage and Condition of food Crops The currently ongoing activity is weeding only. At the irrigation schemes (Bura and Hola) maize crops are at flowering stage and some farmers have started harvesting their crops Harvest Mango and Maize harvests reported in Tana River and Tana Delta Sub-Counties. Maize harvests also reported at Bura and Hola irrigation scheme in June. No much harvests have been reported in mixed and marginal mixed zones. 7

8 Prices of goat in Kshs prices in kenya shillings ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices Livestock Terms of Trade Cattle Prices The average price of a mature 3 year old bull in the month of June 2015 was Kshs.29, 000. In comparison to the month of May 2015, where the price of a 3 year old mature bull was Kshs.33, 125, the price in June has decreased. The decrease in the cattle prices is attributed to market dynamics. The current cattle price of Kshs.29, 000 is above average price at this period of the year as shown on the graph below of average cattle prices. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Tana River County Cattle Prices as compared to averages jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov Dec ,400 26,125 25,125 23,125 33,125 29,000 mean 20,760 15,292 10,281 16,315 16,067 15,659 14,835 17,015 15,201 15,485 16,054 19,396 max 23,939 23,212 31,133 25,990 33,350 25,503 24,072 29,181 26,613 23,654 24,357 35,556 min 17,508 16,019 18,625 17,213 17,000 15,200 16,760 16,817 12,383 17,447 17,700 17,544 Fig 9. Source: NDMA N=450 Household Small Ruminants Prices Goat Prices The average price of a medium size goat in the month of June was Kshs.3, 762. In comparison to the month of May, where the average price of a medium size goat was Kshs.3, 508. The prices in June increased. The price increase is attributed to the market dynamics. Tana River County goat prices as compared to averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept oct Nov Dec Max Min Mean Fig 10. Source: NDMA N=450 Household 8

9 termsof trade ratios Priices in Kenya Shilling Sheep Prices The average price of a sheep in the month of June was Kshs.3, 016. This is a decrease compared to the month of May. Compared to the mean of , the current price is above normal at this time of the year. Tana River County sheep Prices as compared to averages Fig 11 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ,913 2,798 2,750 2,688 3,667 3,016 max 2,400 2,802 2,736 2,567 2,906 2,325 2,552 2,794 2,806 2,304 3,272 3,672 min 1,997 2,129 2,137 1,912 1,948 2,165 2,290 2,205 1,525 1,756 2,090 2,130 mean 2,148 2,406 2,508 2,235 2,285 2,237 2,387 2,496 2,269 2,097 2,640 2,873 Source: NDMA N=450 Household Milk Prices Currently milk is retailing at an average of Kshs.30 per litre. This is lower compared to the month of May which recorded a price of Ksh per litre. This is attributed to market dynamics Terms of Trade Currently the terms of trade is 105 Kg of maize for a goat. Compared to last month, it shows increasing trend. The current terms of trade is above long term mean of 60 Kg for a goat. Tana River County January TOT as compared to averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec mean max min Fig 12. Source:NDMA N=450 Household 9

10 Prices of maize in Kshs/Kg 3.2 Price of cereals and other food products Maize The average maize price per kilogram for the month of June was Kshs.36. In comparison to the month of June, where the average price per kilogram of maize was Kshs.38, the prices have decreased by the end of June. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are below long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics Tana River County 2015 maize prices as compared to averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max Min Mean Fig 13 Source:NDMA N=450 Household 3.3 Access to Food and Water Food Consumption score Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 32 litres in the month of June. In comparison to the month of May, where the average milk consumed per household was 38 litres, the milk consumption level has decreased within the month of June.With water and pasture still available, milk consumption is expected to remain stable in the next two months. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 46 litres, the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. 10

11 Consumption in Litres Milk Consumption Trend-Tana River County Fig Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept oct Nov Dec Max Min Mean Source: NDMA N=450 Household Availability of water for household consumption Most of the communities within the Marginal mixed livelihood zones and the Mixed farming livelihood zones depend on natural rivers for both domestic and livestock consumption. Communities within the pastoral livelihood depend on pans and dams for both domestic and livestock consumption. The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of June was 2.40 kilometres. In comparison to the month of May where distances covered from the households to the main water sources was 2.03 Kilometres, the distances increased. This is attributed to lack of rains in the last two weeks. UTILISATION INDICATORS 4.1 Health and Nutrition Status MUAC The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of June was 8%. In comparison to the month of May, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 13%, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years improved within the month of June. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is above normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to improve if the long rains continues to be experienced across all livelihood zones. Currently, the percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition is higher in Marginal mixed livelihood zones. 11

12 muac<135mm% Child Nutrition Status-Tana River County Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept oct Nov Dec Max Min Mean Fig 15. Source: NDMA N = 2,255 Children Health No Major outstanding human disease reported apart from Malaria reported in most areas. There has been an upsurge of malaria and pneumonia related ailments which are also leading in morbidity rates. 4.2 Coping Strategy Provision of relief food and supplementary feeding for the vulnerable groups of the communities in the divisions most affected remained the top most coping strategy. Food ration (for approximately 50% of the population) was being practiced across most households in all the zones. Majority of households resorted to food acquisition by credit and to a larger extent aid from relatives and friends Current Interventions and Recommendations 5.1 Non-food interventions. Construction of Shallow wells in Garsen division, Construction of Schools, Construction of fodder Warehouse by UNDP, Green house projects by UNDP, Nutritional Projects by German Agro Action,Supply of Energy saving Jikos by UNDP, Supply of Grass seeds by UNDP, Restocking of goats to farmers by UNDP. Establishment of small scale irrigation projects and group demonstration farms by Water Irrigation and drainage, MOA, UNDP and other partners like German Agro-Action. Water harvesting, dry land farming, small scale irrigation and range rehabilitation initiatives through Food for Assets initiatives, NALEP, Kenya Dry Land Development Program (KDLDP), MOLD, MDNK&OAL,NDMA. Mother to mother support groups programme and baby friendly hospital initiatives by MOH, UNICEF, IMC. 12

13 Security surveillance, peace building, conflict resolution and management initiatives by the OOP, KRC, UNDP Peace Committees. Vaccination against FMD and CC Integrated outreach activities by MOH, IMC and UNICEF. Coordination of ongoing activities by NDMA Food Aid SFP/OTP with FFA/GFD linkage being undertaken by GOK, MOH, IMC UNICEF in all operational health facilities across the County RED CROSS-FFA-targeting 21,939 people within Tana River, Tana Delta and Tana North.PRRO/Food for Assets - The New PRRO beneficiary target for the county is 34,320 out of whom 45,900 households will be under FFA while GFD is 4,900. FFA activities include irrigation for crop production, range reseeding and rehabilitation, tree planting and construction of water pans. Some public primary schools and an equivalent number of ECD centres are under regular School Meals Program - current primary enrolment stands at 59,419 pupils. Food aid in terms of cereals, pulses and oil for the general public targeting 56,427 vulnerable people -by GOK. Emerging Issues 6.1 Insecurity/Conflict/Human Displacement Tensions among locals of Tana Delta have been suppressed by presence of military officers. This has been quelled by recent attacks in Lamu, Mpeketoni and Garia. These has resulted to outwards human migrations. Security has been beeped up since then in the county to curb such incidences in Tana River. Tension is still high in the County over terror attacks. During the month of June, security tension has continued to be experienced among locals due to terrow attacks that took place at Garissa University College. Human/wildlife conflicts in terms of crop destruction, livestock predation and human attacks reported across the livelihoods zones. 6.2 Migration Most livestock have migrated to their traditional grazing grounds of Tana North. In-migration of livestock have been sported in Bangale from Ukambani. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis The current long rains has affected all the livelihood zones and this has positively impacted on food security situation across board. With available pasture and water, households have some food stocks and the prices of essential commodities have stablelized, making them accessible to most households. The food security situation in the marginal mixed farming and pastoral zones is improved more compared to mixed farming zones. 13

14 7.0.Recommendations for Action Enhance food distribution in areas affected by drought. Action:CountyGovernment:CSG/Partners Explore sustainable measures to overcome incidences of human/wildlife conflicts which have become a food insecurity threat across the livelihood zones. Action: KWS/CSG/Partners/Communities. Disease surveillance within the areas affected by drought and the continuation of malaria control initiatives to undermine the prevalence rates. Action: MOH/CSG/Partners/Communities. Enhance support to small scale irrigation activities through provision of water pumps and restocking of vulnerable families to improve food security at household level. Action: DAO/MDNK&OAL/CSG/Partners/Community Continue with malaria control initiatives to undermine the prevalence rates. Action: MOH/CSG/Partners/Communities. Enhance access to water resource during the drought period for both domestic and household use. Action:GOK-CountyCommisioner/Ministry of Water. Construction of shallow wells and boreholes, Construction of pans and major dams along the laghas.action:csg,ministry of Water and Other Partners 14

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