STATISTICS BOTSWANA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER OF No: 2016/1. Copyrights Statistics Botswana 2016

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1 No: 2016/1 STATISTICS BOTSWANA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER OF Statistics Botswana. Private Bag 0024 Gaborone Botswana Copyrights Statistics Botswana 2016 Tel: (267) Fax: (267) info@statsbots.org.bw. Website:

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Gross Domestic Product Revisions in this release Fourth Quarter GDP Components of GDP by Type of Expenditure Annual National Accounts Annual Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Expenditure Foreign Trade...6 Figure 1: Real GDP growth rates (over four quarters)...4 Figure 2: Components of Gross Domestic Expenditure at 2006 Prices...4 Figure 3: Annual Percentage Change in Real GDP...5 Figure 4: Components of Gross Domestic Expenditure at Constant 2006 Prices GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

3 1. Introduction This statistical release contains preliminary Gross Domestic Product estimates at current and constant prices for the fourth quarter of 2015, as well as 2015 preliminary annual estimates. Botswana s national accounts are compiled according to the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993 SNA). The accounts presented in this brief adhere to the enhanced General Data Dissemination System (e-gdds) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which sets out standards on coverage, periodicity and timeliness of data. The estimates are provisional and subject to change. First estimates are normally based on limited data and hence cannot be precise and absolute. The figures are revised after receiving finalized or audited data from companies in which some differences and inconsistencies in the previously published data may be observed. These estimates are not seasonally adjusted hence the variations may differ depending on the quarters. Statistics Botswana acknowledges and appreciates the contribution of all stakeholders in the production of this quarterly report. For more information and further enquiries, contact the Directorate of Stakeholder Relations at All Statistics Botswana outputs/publications are available on the website at and at the Statistics Botswana Library (Head-Office, Gaborone). Anna Majelantle Statistician General March GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

4 2. Gross Domestic Product 2.1 Revisions in this release Revisions have been made to the quartely Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates published in December The changes were due to the updated source data and have affected the following industries: Agriculture, Manufacturing, Finance & Business and General Government. 2.2 Key figures Real Gross Domestic Product Final Consumption Gross Fixed Capital Formation Percentage Change Quarter-on Quarter Year-on Year Quarter-on Quarter Year-on Year Quarter-on Quarter Year-on Year First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Fourth quarter GDP The estimated GDP at current prices for the fourth quarter of 2015 was P34, million compared to a revised level of P37, million registered in the third quarter of 2015 (See table 1). The estimated GDP at constant 2006 prices for the fourth quarter of 2015 was P21, million compared to P20, million registered in the third quarter of 2015 (See table 3). The domestic economy decreased by 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to an increase of 3.9 percent accrued in the same quarter of The decline was attributed to real Mining value added which decreased by 30.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to a decline of 0.2 percent registered in the same quarter of the previous year. The real Mining value added also decreased significantly in the third quarter of 2015 by 40.6 percent. A decline in the value added of the Mining sector is attributed to the continued weak recovery in the global markets, particularly in the major markets for diamonds. In the quarter under review, copper and diamond production decreased by 59.7 and 20.4 percent respectively. During the fourth quarter of 2015, Mowana and Thakadu copper mines were on provisional liquidation while there was also a plant shutdown at the BCL copper mine during the months of August, September and October All other industries recorded positive growth with the exception of Mining, Manufacturing and Agriculture which decreased by 30.5, 1.9 and 0.7 percent respectively (See table 4). Water and Electricity value added at constant 2006 prices for the fourth quarter of 2015 was P42.7 million compared to P36.8 million registered in the fourth quarter of Although Electricity continued to record negative value added, it has shown some improvement. In the fourth quarter of 2015 Electricity recorded a negative value added of P95.2 million compared to a negative value added of P103.5 million registered in the fourth quarter of The improvement is attributed to an increase in local electricity production by 40.2 percent and a decrease of 34.2 percent in electricity imports. Imported Electricity is included in intermediate consumption. Water has shown some improvement in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter, it registered a decline of 1.9 percent compared to a decrease of 4.0 percent in the previous quarter. Manufacturing recorded a decrease of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to an increase of 4.6 percent in the same quarter of the previous year. The decline was attributed to a decline in the value added of all sub industries in this sector. Meat & meat products, Beverages, Textiles, Tanning & leather products and Other manufacturing decreased by 7.4, 5.9, 0.5, 4.6 and 0.6 percent respectively. 3 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

5 Other manufacturing comprises of diamond polishing and cutting companies which are also facing the same challenges as the diamond mining companies emanating from lower external demand of diamonds and lower commodity prices. Exports of polished diamonds decreased by 43.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to a decrease of 10.7 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of Figure 1: Real GDP growth rates (over four quarters) 3.1 Components of GDP by Type of Expenditure final consumption expenditure recorded an increase of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, whereas in the same quarter of the previous year it increased by 3.8 percent. Household final consumption increased by 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 while Government final consumption rose by 3.0 percent in the same quarter. Fixed capital formation recorded an increase of 0.5 percent in the quarter under review. In case of foreign trade, real exports of goods and services decreased by 48.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to a decrease of 6.7 percent recorded in the same quarter of Imports of goods and services registered a decrease of 24.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to 4.0 percent decrease registered in the same quarter of Exports of rough and polished diamonds in carats decreased by 53.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to an increase of 10.8 percent registered in the same quarter of Figure 2: Components of Gross Domestic Expenditure at 2006 prices 4 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

6 4. Annual National Accounts 4.1 Annual Gross Domestic Product Key figures at constant 2006 prices (Annual Percentage Changes) final consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports Imports Gross domestic product GDP per Capita GDP at current prices increased to P145, million in 2015 compared to P142, million registered in 2014, recording an increase of 2.3 percent. GDP at constant prices was P85, million in 2015 compared to P85, million registered in 2014, recording a decrease of 0.3 percent. The decline in real GDP was mainly due to Mining sector which recorded a decrease in real value added of 19.7 percent. The decline in the real value added of the Mining sector is attributed to 15.6 percent decrease in diamond production and 35 percent decline in copper production in Contribution to GDP by industry is shown in table 2. Mining remains a major contributor to GDP. Its contribution decreased to 18.3 percent in 2015 compared to 24.0 percent recorded in Table A 1: Annual percentage change in Real GDP by Economic Activity Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Water & Electricity Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport and Communication Business Service General Government Social and personal Value Added Taxes Less Subsidies GDP Figure 3: Annual percentage change in real GDP 5 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

7 4.2 Gross Domestic Expenditure Real gross domestic expenditure increased by 3.9 percent in 2015 compared to an increase of 7.9 percent in The increase in growth is attributed to increase in Government Final Consumption by 8.7 percent. Gross Fixed Capital Formation and Household Final Consumption increased by 3.0 and 2.6 percent respectively. 4.3 Foreign Trade Real exports of goods and sevices decreased by 21.0 percent in 2015, compared to an increase of 12.3 percent in 2014, while real imports of goods and services in 2015 decreased by 6.1 percent as opposed to an increase of 6.9 percent in Diamond is the major export commodity. In 2015, the exports of rough and polished diamonds in carats decreased by 36.7 percent compared to 5.1 percent increase realised in Figure 4: Components of Gross Domestic Expenditure at constant 2006 prices Table A 2: GDP per capita Nominal GDP per Year capita Real GDP per capita , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

8 Table 1: Value Added by Kind of Economic Activity at Current Prices (P million) Calendar year Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Water & Electricity Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies GDP , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,253.2 Q , , , , , ,073.4 Q , , , , , ,476.7 Q , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,342.9 Q , , , , , ,126.6 Q , , , , , ,187.9 Q , , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,001.8 Q , , , , , ,209.8 Q , , , , , ,216.0 Q , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,733.6 Q , , , , , , , ,774.3 Q , , , , , , , ,514.2 Q , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , ,484.8 Q , , , , , , , ,286.9 Q , , , , , , , , , ,148.8 Q , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , ,596.0 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,731.6 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,472.0 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,617.6 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,914.5 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,106.9 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , ,480.0 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,640.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,181.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,940.6 Note: estimates are provisional 7 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

9 Table 1 Cont d: Value Added by Kind of Economic Activity at Current Prices (P million) Calendar year Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Water & Electricity Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies GDP 2012 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,718.2 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,303.4 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,853.3 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,496.1 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,415.1 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,504.5 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,610.6 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,847.5 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,081.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,216.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,278.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,326.6 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,904.1 Note: estimates are provisional 8 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

10 Table 2: Contribution of Gross Value Added to GDP by Kind of Economic Activity at Current Prices Calendar year Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Water & Electricity Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies GDP Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

11 Table 2 Cont d: Contribution of Gross Value Added to GDP by Kind of Economic Activity at Current Prices Calendar year Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Water & Electricity Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies GDP 2011 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

12 Table 3: Value Added by Kind of Economic Activity at Constant 2006 Prices (P million) Calendar year Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Water & Electricity Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies GDP , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,174.0 Q , , , , , ,353.3 Q , , , , , ,726.4 Q , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,839.3 Q , , , , , ,019.8 Q , , , , , ,185.0 Q , , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,405.2 Q , , , , , ,372.3 Q , , , , , ,353.4 Q , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,334.8 Q , , , , , , , ,087.7 Q , , , , , , ,317.6 Q , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , ,398.0 Q , , , , , , , ,065.3 Q , , , , , , ,607.5 Q , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,844.2 Q , , , , , , , , ,812.4 Q , , , , , , , , , ,783.5 Q , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,504.1 Q , , , , , , , , ,642.0 Q , , , , , , , , , ,598.3 Q , , , , , , , , , ,425.8 Note: estimates are provisional 11 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

13 Table 3 Cont d: Value Added by Kind of Economic Activity at Constant 2006 Prices (P million) Calendar year Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Water & Electricity Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies GDP 2011 Q , , , , , , , , , ,489.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,986.1 Q , , , , , , , , , ,918.4 Q , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , ,685.5 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,582.6 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,439.6 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,357.2 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,693.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,594.3 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,929.1 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,111.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,422.1 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,514.2 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,449.6 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,707.3 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,729.8 Note: estimates are provisional 12 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

14 Table 4: Percentage Change in Gross Value Added by Kind of Economic Activity at constant 2006 Prices Calendar year Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Water & Electricity Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies GDP Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

15 Table 4 Cont d:percentage Change in Gross Value Added by Kind of Economic Activity at constant 2006 Prices Calendar year Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Water & Electricity Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies GDP 2013 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

16 Table 5: Gross Domestic Product by Type of Expenditure at Current Prices (P million) Government Final Consumtion Household Final Consumption Gross Fixed Capital Formation Calendar year Central Govt Local Govt Non-Profit Institutions Household Consumption (Mkt) Household Consumption (Non- Mkt) Machinery & Equipment Transport Equipment Mineral Prospecting , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Q1 1, , , , , ,764.2 Q2 1, , , , , ,939.6 Q3 1, , , , , ,960.5 Q4 1, , , , , , Q1 2, , , , , ,188.8 Q2 1, , , , , ,998.2 Q3 1, , , , , ,293.7 Q4 2, , , , , , Q1 1, , , , , ,560.8 Q2 1, , , , , ,753.2 Q3 2, , , , , , ,052.9 Q4 2, , , , , , , Q1 2, , , , , , ,198.8 Q2 2, , , , , , ,628.8 Q3 2, , , , , , ,171.7 Q4 2, , , , , , , Q1 3, , , , , , ,416.4 Q2 3, , , , , , ,547.9 Q3 3, , , , , , ,713.9 Q4 3, , , , , , , , Q1 3, , , , , , ,041.9 Q2 3, , , , , , , ,478.1 Q3 3, , , , , , ,543.1 Q4 3, , , , , , , Q1 3, , , , , , , ,746.7 Q2 3, , , , , , , ,067.2 Q3 3, , , , , , , ,673.6 Q4 3, , , , , , , ,714.0 Note: estimates are provisional 15 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

17 Table 5 Cont d: Gross Domestic Product by Type of Expenditure at Current Prices (P million) Government Final Consumtion Household Final Consumption Gross Fixed Capital Formation Calendar year Central Govt Local Govt Non-Profit Institutions Household Consumption (Mkt) Household Consumption (Non- Mkt) Machinery & Equipment Transport Equipment Mineral Prospecting 2011 Q1 4, , , , , , , ,469.9 Q2 4, , , , , , , ,543.6 Q3 4, , , , , , , ,798.0 Q4 4, , , , , , , , Q1 4, , , , , , , ,720.9 Q2 4, , , , , , , ,678.8 Q3 4, , , , , , , ,005.9 Q4 4, , , , , , , , Q1 5, , , , , , , ,902.7 Q2 4, , , , , , , ,309.7 Q3 5, , , , , , , ,284.9 Q4 4, , , , , , , , Q1 5, , , , , , , ,700.3 Q2 4, , , , , , , ,580.0 Q3 5, , , , , , , ,131.4 Q4 5, , , , , , , , Q1 5, , , , , , , ,351.5 Q2 5, , , , , , , ,732.3 Q3 5, , , , , , , ,830.5 Q4 5, , , , , , , ,121.7 Note: estimates are provisional 16 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

18 Table 5 Cont d: Gross Domestic Product by Type of Expenditure at Current Prices (P million) Change in Inventories Exports Imports Calendar year Livestock Minerals Others Gross Domestic Expenditure Goods Goods Erreors & Omissions GDP , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , ,253.2 Q , , , , , , ,073.4 Q , , , , , , ,476.7 Q , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,342.9 Q , , , , , ,126.6 Q , , , , , ,187.9 Q , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , ,001.8 Q , , , , , , , , , ,209.8 Q , , , , , , , , ,216.0 Q , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , ,733.6 Q , , , , , , ,774.3 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,514.2 Q , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,484.8 Q , , , , , ,286.9 Q , , , , , ,148.8 Q , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , ,596.0 Q , , , , , , , ,731.6 Q , , , , , , ,472.0 Q , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , ,617.6 Q , , , , , , , , ,914.5 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,106.9 Q , , , , , , , , , ,228.4 Note: estimates are provisional 17 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana

19 Table 5 Cont d: Gross Domestic Product by Type of Expenditure at Current Prices (P million) Change in Inventories Exports Imports Calendar year Livestock Minerals Others Gross Domestic Expenditure Goods Goods Erreors & Omissions GDP 2011 Q , , , , , , , , ,480.0 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,640.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,181.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , ,718.2 Q , , , , , , , ,303.4 Q , , , , , , , , , ,853.3 Q , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , ,496.1 Q , , , , , , , , ,415.1 Q , , , , , , , , ,504.5 Q , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,610.6 Q , , , , , , , ,847.5 Q , , , , , , , , ,081.7 Q , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,216.7 Q , , , , , , , ,278.7 Q , , , , , , , , ,326.6 Q , , , , , , , , ,904.1 Note: estimates are provisional 18 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Statistics Botswana