Oil Market Outlook. By Hannah Breul Office of Energy Markets and Financial Analysis. U.S. Energy Information Administration

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1 Oil Market Outlook For 2016 Legislative Ag Chairs Summit The Opportunities and Challenges of an All of the Above Energy Policy panel January 9, 2016 Denver, CO By Hannah Breul Office of Energy Markets and Financial Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Crude oil prices have fallen from around $100 per barrel to less than $40/b in two years West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price dollars per barrel Historical spot price 40 STEO price forecast NYMEX futures price 20 95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval 95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval 0 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending Dec. 3, Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts. Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2015 January 9,

3 Lower crude oil prices reflect the sustained excess of crude oil supply over global demand World liquid fuels production and consumption World liquids inventory change Implied stock change and balance (right axis) World production (left axis) World consumption (left axis) Forecast Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1-3 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2015 January 9,

4 The growth in U.S. crude oil production was driven by increases in tight oil in the Lower 48 Quarterly U.S. crude oil production Federal GOM Alaska Lower Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2015 January 9,

5 As a result of lower crude oil prices, U.S. gasoline prices averaged $2.43/gal in 2015, the lowest annual average price since 2009 Regular retail gasoline price ranges at selected cities in 2015 dollars per gallon max min $3.73 $4.31 $3.20 $2.53 $2.46 $2.23 San Francisco Los Angeles $2.86 $2.51 $3.37 $2.85 $2.76 $2.80 $2.89 $1.83 $1.71 $2.00 $1.84 $2.01 $2.03 $2.25 Seattle Denver Houston Chicago Cleveland Boston New York City Miami Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration January 9,

6 Regional refinery capacity and complexity varies Rocky Mountain No coker With coker Midwest 1.2 No coker 2.9 With coker East Coast West Coast No coker 0.4 With coker No coker With coker Refinery Designation Refineries with a coker Refineries with no coker Gulf Coast No coker With coker Note: As of January 1, 2014, there were 133 operating refineries with atmospheric crude oil distillation units (ACDU) totaling capacity of 18.9 million barrels per stream day. Heavy capacity denotes refineries with coking capacity; light capacity denotes refineries without coking capacity. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. January 9,

7 The U.S. primarily exports products from the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) and imports to the East Coast (PADD 1) January 9,

8 PADD 5 comprises 6 distinct regional markets across 7 states Alaska Pacific Northwest Northern California and Northern Nevada Arizona Hawaii Southern California and Southern Nevada January 9,

9 Other resources for State Legislators States pages contain: Maps with the location of all energyrelated infrastructure Quick facts Consumption data by sector and fuel source Production data Electricity data Prices (when available) Emission data January 9,

10 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Annual Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review Today in Energy State Energy Portal Drilling Productivity Report January 9,

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