Commodities I VAYDA BAZAAR DECEMBER 2011, ISSUE II
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- Emery Eaton
- 7 years ago
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1 The month of Nov Dec., has shown a mixed trend across the futures as well as the spot markets. As prices some of the commodities continued their down trend to multi months low while some others scaled to their life time highs, but were supported by their own supply demand fundamentals. Also some agro commodities remained in a tight range or under pressure due to higher output from the current Kharif crop; however a decline in fresh arrivals has restricted major losses. India's food price inflation eased nearly to a 4 year low to 4.35% as on Dec. 3, down from 10.63% on Nov. 5. Now, moving ahead in the near term, we expect prices of most of the commodities to remain volatile & follow cues from there supply demand fundamentals. Among the spices complex, prices trend is expected to remain mixed, with pepper expected to show some correction once new crop arrivals hit market from January onwards while competitive rates in the international market & winter demand is expected to restrict strong losses. Among others, turmeric & cardamom prices are likely to see some recovery, but supply factors are likely to keep a check on major gains. Chilli & Jeera prices could see a consolidation phase before new crop arrives in Feb March while demand currently remains steady to marginal, as traders await new crop. In the oil seeds complex, prices trend is expected to remain sideways to positive with supply from fresh harvest is expected to increase while demand for the same from planters & exporters remains on the higher side, supported by current firm edible oil & other bi product prices in the international as well as domestic market. Among the edible oils, trend is expected to remain positive with upcoming festive & marriage season in India while on the supply side crushing & extraction activity has been on the lower side, as farmer's are holding back their output for a better price. The trend in the Guar complex has turned has turned very much bullish, after prices breached out from their consolidation phase. In the near term, the trend is expected to remain positive, due to continuous export demand even at current price levels; however we maintain caution on the guar complex, as prices have rallied significantly & are due for correction. Among other commodities, Mentha oil & Chana prices are expected to consolidate in a range while that of Sugar; Maize & Cotton are expected to remain sideways and could see some selling due to supply factors. Overall, we expect mixed trading sessions ahead and see volatility to increase with factors of demand supply adding further support to the prices movements & their trend. Agro commodity - Market Performance Futures closing Spot rates Price in (`) Dec 11 Nov 11 e o e %chg.* Dec 10 y o y %chg. Dec 11 Nov 11 e o e %chg.* Spices Chilli 6,652 7,610 (12.6) 5, , ,776.0 (7.1) Jeera 14,440 13, , , , Pepper 37,415 34, , , , Turmeric 4,414 5,770 (23.5) 14,232 (69.0) 5, ,597.5 (5.9) Cardamom** (10.7) 1,420.0 (59.1) (14.0) Oil seeds Soya bean 2,360 2, , ,418 2, Soya oil CPO** (2.0) (1.4) (0.5) Mustard seed 3,535 3, , , , Guar complex Guar seed 6,616 4, , , , Guar gum 21,673 13, , , , Others Mentha oil** 1, ,345.8 (3.8) 1, , (1.1) Sugar 2,830 3,041 (6.9) 3,095 3,245 (4.6) COCUDAKL 1,171 1,217 (3.8) , (2.5) Chana 3,312 3,512 (5.7) 2, , ,584.3 (4.7) Maize 1,161 1, , , ,252.3 (8.8) Potato (1.4) (2.1) *Expiry to Expiry change **prices as on 20th of the month
2 Spices - Chilli As per the given chart above of Chilli futures, we see that prices have been continuously declining and have breached its support line at 6,750 from above on a closing basis. On the indicators: 14 week RSI is trading close to over sold region, also below its moving average and the down trend line (as marked on the chart above) while momentum indicator MACD is trading below the mid zero line, adding support to our current bearish view. On moving averages, prices are trading below their 9 week & 18 week Exponential Moving averages (EMA) with the short term EMA trading well below the long term EMA, indicating that the trend still remains down. In the near term, we maintain our bearish view and expect selling in prices towards 6,100, 5,600 and towards long term support line at 4,300, with upside resistance at 6,800 and 7,350. Spices - Jeera In the given weekly chart above of Jeera futures, we have seen a strong rally in last couple of weeks with prices trading close to 2 month highs on continuous charts. On the indicators: 14 week RSI has moved above 50 & also above its moving average; however further upside remains caped by the resistance line (as marked on the chart above) while the momentum indicator MACD continues to trade in negative zone, indicating that the trend still remains down. However, prices are currently trading above their 9 week EMA & 18 week EMA but the short term EMA is trading well below the long term EMA, giving no clear direction. In the near term, a sharp rally in prices is expected only above 14,860 levels, up till 15,300 16,000 levels. However on failure to close above the given level, prices can again dip & trade in the range of 13,000 to 14,800 levels.
3 Spices - Pepper Looking at the chart above of Pepper futures, we have seen a strong rally in prices in last futures expiry but the negative price candle has formed, due to addition of near month futures to the continuous weekly charts. Also, a formation of higher highs on prices & lower high on indicators is a signs of trend reversal. On the indicators: 14 week RSI is still trading above 50 but below its moving average and is trading close to its long term support line while momentum indicator MACD is trading well above the mid zero line in the bullish region but has been breached by its deviation line, both indicators are showing signs of reversal in trend. On moving average, prices are trading above their 9 week & 18 week Exponential Moving averages (EMA), with the short term EMA trading well above the long term EMA, supportive to the current up trend. For the near term, we see prices correcting towards support levels of 34,550, but more selling is expected only below 34,500. Spices - Turmeric Analyzing the weekly chart of Turmeric futures, we note that prices are very much consistent in their trend, with a close above 2 weeks high or low seen as a trend reversal. Also, a formation of Lower lows in prices & higher lows on indicators is a signs of trend reversal. On the indicators: 14 week RSI has come out of the over sold region & is also trading above its moving average while the momentum indicator MACD is trading well below mid zero line but its deviation line has breached the MACD from below... both indicators are showing signs of a bounce back in prices. On moving averages, prices are still trading below their 9 week & 18 week Exponential Moving averages (EMA), which are also acting as resistance during reversals. For the near term, we expect prices to consolidate at current levels & trade with a positive bias with immediate support below 3,900 & Resistance at 4,800. However, a sustained close above 4,850 will trigger fresh buying for levels of 5,300 and 5,800.
4 Guar complex - seed As per the given chart of Guar seed, we have seen a strong parabolic rally in prices, after they breached out from a consolidation phase above 4,834. Prices have been moving higher on a w o w basis, with higher highs & higher low formation on charts. On the indicators: 14 week RSI is quoting close to over bought region above 70 and also above its moving average after it breached its resistance line (as marked on the chart above). Momentum indicator MACD is trading in positive, but has been breached by its deviation line from below both indicators are showing that the momentum still remains positive. Also prices are trading above their 9 week EMA & 18 week EMA with the short term EMA trading well above the long term EMA, indicating that the trend remains up. In the near term, we expect Guar seed prices to test upside level of 7,680, which is last level of technical Fibonacci extensions. Traders are advice to trade cautiously & avoid fresh buying at current levels, as Support holds at 5,622. Guar complex - gum The price trend of Guar gum is very similar to that of guar seed. We have seen a strong parabolic rally, after prices breached out from a consolidation phase above 15,525. Prices have been moving higher on a w o w basis, with a formation of higher highs & higher lows. On the indicators: 14 week RSI trading in the over bought region above 80 while the momentum indicator MACD is trading in positive zone, but has been breached by its deviation line from below, indicating that the trend still remains bullish. Also prices are trading above their 9 week EMA and 18 week EMA, with the short term EMA trading well above the long term EMA, indicating that the trend remains up. In the near term, we expect prices to test upside levels of 23,500 and 25,400 levels, which are last of technical Fibonacci extensions. Traders are advice to trade cautiously & avoid fresh buying at current levels, as Support holds at 18,300.
5 Soya complex - bean In the given continuous chart above of Soya bean futures, we have seen strong upside rally in prices last week, with same momentum continued in the current week as well. Currently, prices are trading close to long term resistance line on charts. On the indicators: 14 week RSI is trading above 50, also above its moving average line and has breached its down trend line from below (as marked on the chart above) while momentum indicator MACD is trading close to mid zero line with the deviation line above the MACD line, both indicators remain supportive to current price rally. Also prices are trading above their 9 week EMA & 18 week EMA with the short term EMA trading well above the long term EMA, indicating that the trend remains up. In the near term, we expect prices to continue their current up trend & further upside is expected above 2,450 levels (on closing basis), towards 2,555 and 2,670 levels, with Support at 2,350. Soya complex - oil Refine soya oil prices have recently breached out of a long consolidation phase on the higher side, above 673 & the resistance line (as marked on the chart above). On the indicators: 14 week RSI is quoting above 50, also above its moving average and well above the up trend line (as marked in blue on the chart) while momentum indicator MACD has moved above mid zero line in the positive zone with the deviation line trading above the MACD line, both indicators are showing signs of a pickup in positive trend. Also prices are trading above their 9 week EMA & 18 week EMA, with the short term EMA trading well above the long term EMA, indicating that the trend remains up. For the near term, we advise buying on dips to 675 (on close above 673 on a weekly basis), for higher targets of 700 and 730, with Stop below 665. Also a much stronger upside rally is expected above 730 (on closing basis).
6 Others - Chana As per the weekly chart above of Chana futures, we have again seen a strong recovery in prices from dips towards support lines. Analyzing the above chart, it has been noticed that prices are consolidating in a range capped by the support & resistance lines. On the indicators: 14 week RSI is showing signs of reversal by taking support on the long term up trend line & is also trading above 50, indicating that the trend remains up while the MACD indicator is trading above zero in positive territory, but is trading below its deviation line indicating, showing signs of a reversal in trend. Also prices are trading above their 9 day and 18 day Exponential Moving average (EMA), with the short term EMA trading well above the long term EMA, supportive to the current positive price movement. In the near term, we see prices to continue their consolidation phase and expect them to trade in the range of 3,000 to 3,600, till we get a break out on the either side. (Positional based Buying/ Selling is advised only around the given levels). Others - Mentha oil In the given weekly chart of Mentha oil futures, we see that prices have consolidating in a range but with a negative bias and forming lower highs & lower lows on charts on a weekly basis. On the indicators: 14 week RSI trading above 50, but has breached its moving average from above while momentum indicator MACD is trading in the positive territory, but the deviation line has crossed from above both indicators are showing signs of reversal in trend. On moving averages, prices are currently trading in between their 9 week & 18 week Exponential Moving averages (EMA) with short term EMA trading above the long term EMA, giving no clear direction. For the near term, we expect prices to consolidate in a range with crucial support seen at 1,247.5 and resistance at 1,360 levels.
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