The Climate of the Douro: Structure, Trends and Mitigation and Adaptation Responses to a Changing Climate

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1 The Climate of the Douro: Structure, Trends and Mitigation and Adaptation Responses to a Changing Climate Gregory V. Jones Department of Environmental Studies Fernando Alves Association for Viticultural Development in the Douro Valley (ADVID) GiESCO 18 th International Symposium 7-11 July 2013 Porto - Portugal

Jones Department of Environmental Studies Fernando Alves Association for

2 Outline of Talk Overview of Climate Assessment Project for the Douro Wine Region Review of the: Historic Climate Structure, Extremes, and Trends Future Projected Climate in the Douro Summary/Conclusions

Historic Climate Structure, Extremes, and Trends

3 Comprehensive climate assessment conducted in , with goals of: Examining historic climate conditions in the Douro Wine Region Analyze the structure and trends in climate parameters and indices Analyze the structure and trends in weather/climate extremes Analyze regional climate variability mechanisms Developing a better understanding of the spatial characteristics of climate in the region Developing a better understanding of the regional suitability of the climate to viticulture Depict and summarize climate change projections for the region

variability mechanisms Developing a better understanding of the spatial characteristics of climate in the region Developing a better

5 Historic Climate Structure, Extremes, and Trends

6 Overview of Climate Data for the Douro Historic monthly data (Ferreira, 1965) Few stations with long term records Vila Real, Régua, Pinhão ( ) Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) tools tests for outliers, homogeneity, and 27 climate parameters WorldClim spatial climate database for monthly temperature and precipitation covering at ~1 km resolution Downscaled GCM output from the HADCM3 climate model (1 km = WorldClim), three future emission scenarios B2, A1B, and A2 for three time slices , 2050, and 2080

WorldClim spatial climate database for monthly temperature and precipitation covering 1950-2000 at ~1 km resolution Downscaled GCM output

7 Monthly National Data Monthly station data of annual precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, evapotranspiration, solar radiation, etc generalized to contours, limited accuracy

Using the WorldClim gridded climate data, monthly and seasonal climate parameters were assessed for their statistical properties both within and between regions

8 Using the WorldClim gridded climate data, monthly and seasonal climate parameters were assessed for their statistical properties both within and between regions Annual Precipitation (mm) Statistics Min 25% Median 75% Max Baixo Corgo Cima Corgo Douro Superior

Annual Precipitation (mm) Statistics Min 25% Median 75% Max Baixo Corgo 971 1128

9 Using the WorldClim gridded climate data, growing season climate indices were also summarized for the area of each region that falls within certain categories of climate suitability

10 Growing Season Average Temperatures y = 0.08x R² = 0.74 y = 0.06x R² = 0.58 y = 0.04x R² = 0.41

11 Climate Extreme Indices ID Indicator name Units Régua Vila Real Pinhão Average Trend Trend Trend Trend FD0 Frost days Days CSDI Cold spell duration indicator Days SU25 Summer days Days ST35 Stress days Days TR20 Tropical nights Days TN10p Cool nights Days TN90p Warm nights Days TX90p Warm days Days TXx Max Tmax C TNx Max Tmin C TNn Min Tmin C DTR Diurnal temperature range C General characteristics: higher minimum and maximum temperatures, increase in extreme temperatures, fewer cold events and not as cold, more heat stress events, and a lower diurnal temperature range

0 TN90p Warm nights Days 18.9 9.3 12.0 13.4 TX90p Warm days Days 7.9 6.5 7.2 TXx Max Tmax C 2.2 2.5 2.3 TNx Max Tmin C 4.3 2.9 3.3 3.5 TNn Min Tmin C 1.9 1.2 2.2 1.

12 Future Climate Projections

15 Summary/Conclusions

16 Summary General climate station trends in the Douro Wine Region show: Higher minimum and maximum temperatures A lower diurnal temperature range Increases in extreme temperatures with Fewer cold events and not as cold More heat stress events

lower diurnal temperature range Increases in extreme

17 Summary Future projections for the Douro Wine Region, over three different emission scenarios, indicate a range of growing season warming of: C by C by C by 2080 A range of annual precipitation decreases of: 0-7% by % by % by 2080 With a greater reduction in precipitation during the growing season than during the winter

18 Conclusions While challenges exist for the Douro and other regions, opportunities for a more sustainable industry through reduced vulnerability and increased adaptive capacity are being addressed by ADVID and others: Realizing the large genetic potential for adaptation Realizing the large landscape potential for adaptation Potential changes in traditional training systems Optimization of canopy geometry, row orientation, and possibly increasing the use of shading materials Improved understanding of scion-rootstock combinations for the region s soils and climate Improved grapevine water use efficiency and irrigation management, where possible

adaptation Potential changes in traditional training systems Optimization of canopy geometry, row orientation, and possibly increasing the use of shading

19 Thank You! Gregory V. Jones Dept of Environmental Studies

South Africa. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1

South Africa. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles South Africa A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate