Renewable Energy Resource Assessment for Bournemouth, Dorset & Poole

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy Resource Assessment for Bournemouth, Dorset & Poole CONTENTS 1. Methodology 2. Current renewable energy deployment in Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole 3. Onshore wind 4. Biomass 5. Microgen 6. Hydro 7. Offshore 8. Scenarios to 2020 Amended March 2012 Page 1 of 49

2 1. Methodology 1.1. Summary of the methodology This supporting document to the Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole Renewable Energy Strategy summarises local renewable energy resources, based upon a national methodology. In September 2009, SQW Energy and Land Use Consultants were commissioned by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and the Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) to develop a methodology for assessing the opportunities and constraints for deploying renewable and low-carbon energy development in the English regions. A standardised methodology at a strategic level was considered necessary to remove inconsistencies between different UK areas in the way renewable energy capacity had been defined, assessed and fed through to the setting of targets in Regional Spatial Strategies. The requirements set out in this document (the SQW methodology 1 ) have been used as a basis for the assessment of renewable energy resources in the South West. Within the South West, the resource assessment work has been managed and coordinated by Regen SW, although different specialist consultants have been commissioned to apply the methodology to different renewable energy resource components. For the purposes of this resource assessment for Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole an additional level of interpretation, beyond the requirements of the SQW methodology, has been applied in some cases to ground-truth the resource. Whilst this reduces the maximum technically available resource, it provides a figure which is more realistic for the local area and which, therefore, has a higher degree of confidence. It should be noted, however, that the maximum technically available resource figures provided here should still be taken with a pinch of salt, because they suggest what is technically possible without any consideration of economic viability or behavioural preferences. Although Regional Spatial Strategies have been abolished by the coalition government and the SQW methodology may be revised in the future to reflect national policy changes, it remains for the moment as the only commonly accepted way of assessing renewable energy resources. Its use, therefore, allows comparisons to be made between the different available resources and between different areas What the national methodology covers The SQW methodology focuses on land-based renewable energy only (i.e. not offshore sources) and includes both commercial scale renewables and microgeneration (on-site and building-integrated renewables). Technologies such as deep geothermal energy and surface-water source heat pumps are excluded from the methodology as their potential in 1 SQW & LUC: Renewable and Low-carbon Energy Capacity Methodology for the English Regions (Jan 2010). See Amended March 2012 Page 2 of 49

3 the UK is deemed to be negligible and technologies such as solar passive design are also excluded as it is not possible to quantify installed capacity. The SQW methodology includes: Wind o onshore commercial scale (2.5MW) o onshore micro scale (6kW) Biomass o Plant biomass - o Managed woodland o Energy crops o Waste wood o Agricultural arisings (straw) o Animal biomass o Wet organic waste o Poultry litter o Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) o Commercial & Industrial Waste (C&IW) o Biogas o Landfill gas o Sewage gas Hydropower - small scale Microgeneration - Solar o Solar Photovoltaics (PV) o Solar Water Heating (SWH) Heat pumps o Ground source heat (GSHP) o Air source heat (ASHP) 1.3. Applying the methodology Undertaking the resource assessment involves a sequential process. Layers of analysis are applied that progressively reduce the total theoretical opportunity for any given resource to what is practically achievable. In broad terms, Stages 1 and 2 represent the opportunity for harnessing the renewable energy resource on the basis of what is naturally available, including the known limitations of existing technologies. Some natural resources, for example solar and wind, are available in abundant supply. In these cases the analysis focuses on what the currently available technology can capture and convert into useful energy. Amended March 2012 Page 3 of 49

4 Stages 3 and 4 address the constraints to the deployment of technologies in relation to the physical environment and planning/regulatory limitations. The SQW methodology details additional stages which can be applied in order to set targets, including stage 5 - economic constraints and stage 6 - supply chain constraints. For the purposes of this resource assessment only stages 1 to 4 have been followed to produce an estimate of the maximum technically available resource, as the aim is to better understand the resources available within Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole rather than to set any specific local targets for renewable energy generation. The stages of the SQW methodology can be summarised as :- 1. Naturally available resource - quantifying the naturally available renewable energy resource within a geographical boundary using data and analysis, including resource maps and inventories. 2. Technically accessible resource - estimating how much of the natural resource can be harnessed using commercialised technology (currently available or expected to reach the market by 2020). 3. Physical environment constraints of high priority - exploring the physical barriers to deployment such as areas where renewables schemes cannot practically be built using GIS maps e.g. large scale wind turbines can t be built on roads and rivers. 4. Planning and regulatory constraints - applying constraints relevant to each renewable technology that reflect the current planning and regulatory framework, such as excluding from the assessment areas and resources which cannot be developed due to e.g. health & safety, air/water quality, environmental protection. 5. Economically viable potential 6. Deployment constraints (supply chain) 7. Regional ambition target-setting Amended March 2012 Page 4 of 49

5 1.4. Developing maximum, medium and low deployment scenarios Three scenarios have been developed to help promote understanding and awareness of the different options regarding renewable electricity and renewable heat generation which could be followed in Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole. The scenarios help to explain what types of resources are available and when compared to current deployment (installation) rates give an idea of the scale of uptake which is technically possible at the current time. The three scenarios are: Maximum - The maximum scenario results from the application of a common national methodology, the Renewable and Low-carbon Energy Capacity Methodology produced by SQW energy consultants in For some technologies an additional level of interpretation has been provided by RegenSW to reflect local circumstances this is stated where it applies. Medium The medium scenario assumes that half of the maximum technically available resource will be deployed by The only exception is for biomass where a more in depth analysis was possible. Low this provides a baseline or do nothing option and is intended to show what a business as usual approach would look like if current installation rates continue. The low scenario is based on a continuation of the average installation rates seen over the past 2 full years for which data is available i.e. 2008/9 and 2009/10. For technologies eligible for the Feed in Tariff and Renewable Heat Incentive, installation rates have increased dramatically as a result of the introduction of such financial incentives. However, the early review of tariff rates applicable to large scale solar, for example has rocked industry confidence in renewables investment. It is possible that optimum installations will have occurred already and installation rates may reduce year on year as financial incentives lose their initial impact. Uncertainty over future tariff rates may also dampen the number of future renewable energy installations. For these reasons a pessimistic view has been taken to calculate the minimum scenarios, using a continuation to 2020 of average installation rates in Amended March 2012 Page 5 of 49

6 1.5. Capacity factors used Capacity Factor The capacity factor of a particular technology, is an approximate way of estimating how much energy per year a certain installed capacity of generation will produce. The figures used for different capacity factors are based on experience from existing installations. Because capacity factors are in effect just a guide they can cause confusion among nonspecialists about the length of time over which a particular technology is generating. For example, a capacity factor of 0.1 or 10% for PV does not mean that a PV system in the UK will only generate electricity for 10% of the year. What it means is that all of the energy generated by the PV system over the course of a year is equivalent to the PV system generating at its full installed capacity for 10% of the year. Similarly, wind power technology has a capacity factor of 0.3, or 30%, but a wind turbine will typically be generating electricity for 80% of the time, but will only be generating at full power for a smaller % of time, say 10-15%. The rest of the time it is operating, the turbine is generating somewhere between full power and cut-in, when it first starts to generate. Another example would be a gas boiler or heat pump which may only operate at full capacity for 20% of the year, as no central heating is required in summer or during the night in winter. Renewable energy technologies with low capacity factors are referred to as intermittent, and this includes wind, PV and hydro. They are intermittent because the wind does not always blow, the sun does not always shine, and so on. Technologies with high capacity factors are referred to as reliable, and these include biomass CHP, landfill gas and CAD. No energy technology, renewable or non-renewable has a 100% capacity factor, as there will always be a certain amount of downtime for maintenance, and for faults Capacity factors for different technologies Typical capacity factors for each of the technologies are shown in the table below. To work out how much energy a technology will generate: multiply the installed capacity, (in MW) by the capacity factor, and by the number of hours in a year (24x365=8760), to give annual energy output in MWh (Megawatt hours). Renewable technology Large onshore wind (2.5MW) Small onshore wind (15kW) Solar PV Small hydro power Offshore wind Tidal Capacity factor Amended March 2012 Page 6 of 49

7 Renewable technology WID compliant biomass CHP AD Heat pumps Solar thermal Landfil l gas Woody biomass (150Kw) Sewage gas Capacity factor Amended March 2012 Page 7 of 49

8 2. Current renewable energy deployment (January 2011) in Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole The Renewable Energy Progress Report: South West 2011 Annual Survey (RegenSW, March 2011) gives more details about renewable energy installations over the past year, broken down by district. For Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole the headline figures are: 2.2 Renewable electricity Total capacity: MW Increase in 2010/2011: MW Total Projects: 617 New Projects 2010/2011: out of the 448 new projects in the area were solar PV. The largest installed projects in 2010/2011 were a 24 kw domestic solar array in West Dorset and a 22 kw hydro turbine at Bindon Mill in Purbeck. 87 per cent of total installed renewable electricity capacity in the Dorset area is from landfill gas and sewage gas installations, with 7.8 per cent from solar PV, 4.4 per cent from anaerobic digestion and advanced treatment of waste, one per cent from onshore wind and 0.3 per cent from hydropower. 2.3 Renewable heat Total capacity: MW Increase in 2010/2011: MW Total Projects: 302 New Projects 2010/2011: 114 In 2010/2011 heat pumps was the technology most widely installed, with 48 Air Source Heat Pumps and 4 Ground Source Heat Pumps. This was followed by solar thermal with 49 new projects and biomass with 13. Although it only made up 11.4 per cent of the increase in numbers, biomass contributed 1.97 MW or 80.4 per cent towards the increase in renewable heat capacity. Amended March 2012 Page 8 of 49

9 The following table shows the current contributions of the various technologies: Current renewable energy installations in Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole Technology Annual estimated renewable electricity generation (GWh) Annual estimated renewable heat generation (GWh) Installed capacity to January 2011 (MWe) Installed capacity to January 2011 (MWth) Capacity factor Wind Solar PV Hydro Biomass, woody AD Heat pumps Solar thermal Landfill gas Sewage gas Total Amended March 2012 Page 9 of 49

10 3. Onshore wind 3.2 Current deployment figures Current figures for installed capacity of renewable energy technologies for Dorset, Bournemouth and Poole are as follows. Dorset, Bournemouth & Poole installation levels are very low and no MW scale wind turbines have been installed to date. Current onshore wind installations by local authority Local Authority Onshore wind (MW) Poole Bournemouth 0.00 Christchurch 0.00 East Dorset North Dorset Purbeck West Dorset Weymouth & Portland Total Number of projects Total naturally available resource (equates to level 1 of SQW methodology) The REvision 2010 analysis undertaken in 2005 estimated there was 153MW of potential wind resource in Dorset, Bournemouth and Poole and that this could be reduced to 75MW through the application of a landscape sensitivity assessment. The assessment estimated that 40 to 60MW of this might be achievable by This took into account the fact that not all proposals would secure planning permission, and the short timescale to In fact, this assessment has significantly overestimated the amount of schemes that have achieved consent, with no large wind farms built in Dorset, Bournemouth or Poole by the end of The latest data for the South West has been collected for Regen SW by Wardell Armstrong in , using the SQW methodology with the application of an additional filter to create a more realistic assessment of the resource potential of the local area as outlined below. 2 Amended March 2012 Page 10 of 49

11 Large Commercial Scale Wind Resource SQW Level 1 Natural Resource (parameter 1) The natural resource shows the energy that could be extracted based solely on land area. Interesting comparisons can be made between the other levels and the natural resource. However, the resource values on their own are of no particular value. SQW Level 2 - Technically Accessible Resource (parameters 2 & 3) The technically accessible resource simply involved removal of the low wind speed areas. At a threshold of 5m/s at 45m above ground level, only a very small area was actually removed. Low wind speed areas do not produce significant amounts of energy. This therefore meant that there was very little difference between the resource available at Level 1 and Level 2. SQW Level 3 Physical environment (parameter 4) and SQW Level 4- Planning and Regulatory constraints (exclusion areas parameter 5, environmental and landscape constraints parameter 6 & MOD Considerations parameter 7) The physically accessible resource uses the OS Strategi dataset to generate areas which cannot physically be accessed for development of wind farms. These areas include features such as roads, railways and inland water. Although removal of these areas did result in a significant reduction of the resource, it is likely that use of OS 1:50k Vector Map instead of Strategi 1:250K would have resulted in a much greater reduction in the resource. The application of the exclusion areas filter, which includes buffers around the physical constraints as well as sites of historic interest and ancient semi-natural woodland, described by SQW as areas where wind developments are unlikely to be permitted, sees the largest percentage reduction in wind resource when following the SQW methodology. However, the reduction would have been much greater if the more detailed vector map dataset had been used to generate the exclusion areas. The practically accessible resource takes account of both environmental and landscape designations. These were divided in two to examine the effects of each independently. Once the constraints of the previous levels had been applied, environmental designation constraints lead to a relatively small reduction of the resource available. A further large reduction in the wind resource resulted from removal of the landscape designated areas. This is primarily due to the majority of landscape designations being located on moors or next to the coast which often also have the highest wind resource. Amended March 2012 Page 11 of 49

12 The resource figures to be used for this assessment are those that relate to level 4 of the SQW methodology, after application of parameter 6.2 as highlighted below. Parameters 1 NAME Capacity 2 (MW) Turbines Bournemouth Christchurch District East Dorset District North Dorset District Poole Purbeck District West Dorset District Weymouth and Portland District Bournemouth Christchurch District East Dorset District North Dorset District Poole Purbeck District West Dorset District Weymouth and Portland District Bournemouth Christchurch District East Dorset District North Dorset District Poole Purbeck District West Dorset District Weymouth and Portland District Bournemouth 2 1 Christchurch District 19 7 East Dorset District North Dorset District Poole Purbeck District West Dorset District Weymouth and Portland District Bournemouth 1 0 Christchurch District 18 7 East Dorset District North Dorset District Amended March 2012 Page 12 of 49

13 Parameters 1 NAME Capacity 2 (MW) Turbines 3 Poole Purbeck District West Dorset District Weymouth and Portland District 21 8 Bournemouth 1 0 Christchurch District 18 7 East Dorset District North Dorset District Poole Purbeck District West Dorset District Weymouth and Portland District A wind speedup log law calculation was used to estimate the wind at 85m above ground level from the 45m reference height in the NOABL wind speed database. A ground roughness value of 0.03 was used the calculation (x 1.087) 2 Installed capacity estimated based on area, this was set at 9MW/km2 3 Turbine numbers were calculated based on total installed capacity using a 2.5MW N80 Nordex 3.4 An assessment of the maximum scenario In order to generate this scenario for 2020 an additional filter has been applied for noise mitigation around dwellings, as shown in the in level 8 figure above. This does not form part of the original SQW methodology but has produced a significant reduction in the available wind resource (73%). Parameters Local authority Capacity (MW) Turbines Energy output (GWh/yr) Bournemouth Christchurch East Dorset North Dorset Poole Purbeck West Dorset Weymouth and 2 1 Portland 5 TOTAL Amended March 2012 Page 13 of 49

14 3.5 Installation rates The following graph shows the rate of deployment needed for onshore wind in order to meet the maximum scenario by 2020 assuming a linear rate of deployment An assessment of the medium scenario The medium scenario assumes that 50% of the maximum available resource is developed, giving an energy output of 1064 GWh per year from onshore wind from 450MW of installed capacity. Local authority Capacity (MW) Turbines Bournemouth Christchurch East Dorset North Dorset Poole Energy output (GWh/yr) Purbeck West Dorset Weymouth and Portland Total Amended March 2012 Page 14 of 49

15 3.7. An assessment of the minimum scenario There has now been one wind farm approved at committee in Purbeck, with extensive planning conditions, the Alaska wind farm proposed by Infinergy. Deployment may still be challenging, given the significant number of conditions applied to it and there is also still the chance of challenge. 3 The installed capacity of this scheme would be 9.2MW, and would be the only MW scale wind energy installed in the last decade. This is less than 5% of the resource in Purbeck, so if we applied a 5% installation rate to the maximum scenario figures for 2020, they would look as follows. Area Minimum scenario deployment to 2020 (MW) Estimated number of turbines Energy output (GWh/yr) Dorset Bournemouth Poole The Alaska wind farm has subsequently been turned down by councillors when considering the planning conditions. Infinergy are likely to take the decision to appeal. Amended March 2012 Page 15 of 49

16 4. Biomass 4.1. Current deployment figures Installed end 2010 Clean wood AD Sewage gas Total Local Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat authority area MWe MWth MWe MWth MWe MWth MWe MWth Christchurch East Dorset North Dorset Purbeck West Dorset Weymouth and Portland Dorset Bournemouth Poole Unknown Total The 2011 RegenSW survey of renewable energy shows that installed biomass capacity in the area at the end of 2010 totalled 3.14MWe electricity and 5.68 MWth heat. 2.3MWe of installed capacity is from sewage treatment plants in Bournemouth and Poole with the remainder from an Anaerobic Digestion (AD) plant in each of North and West Dorset. Heat from clean wood provides 4.56MWth of capacity with most installations in North and West Dorset. Most of the remaining heat is from sewage gas Combined Heat and Power (CHP). Landfill gas is not included above, but Regen SW survey data records installed capacity for landfill gas as 7.4MWe in Dorset and 6.9MWe in Poole, a total of 14.3MWe. However, once a landfill site is capped landfill gas is a depleting resource. Waste industry sources suggest landfill sites evolve methane for some 15 to 20 years. It is estimated that production at a typical landfill site will fall between 5% and 10% per annum, suggesting initial reductions in capacity in the area of up to 1.4 MW per year (declining over time). On this basis landfill capacity in the area could typically decline to some 9.4MWe in 2015 and 5.5MWe in Because landfill gas can be considered as a store of historic biomass resource and not a future resource it is excluded from this work. However, biomass waste resources are included on the basis that these resources do not go to landfill but are treated with more appropriate energy conversion technologies such as anaerobic digestion Total naturally available resource (equates to level 1 of SQW methodology) The naturally available biomass resource is taken as the energy content of the resource quantity (which provides a figure in MWh per year) without the use of a treatment technology to convert the variety of biomass fuels into usable electricity and heat. Amended March 2012 Page 16 of 49

17 These figures are derived from the Environment Agency biomass resource report 4 addendum 5. Allocation of sewage gas and energy crops is by population and land area (in Dorset) respectively. Oven dried tonnes (odt) of wood (clean, treated and energy crops) are converted at 5.3 MWh/odt (source Biomass Energy Centre) and methane from wet biomass and sewage sludge at MWh/m 3. Further analysis of the biomass resource requires segmentation into the fuel sub categories to account for the varying energy conversion needs of the different feedstock streams. Biomass Total naturally available resource (SQW level 1) Local authority Clean Treated Wet Sewage Energy Total area wood MWh wood MWh biomass MWh gas MWh crops MWh MWh Christchurch 13,653 6,196 2,440 2, ,135 East Dorset 65,550 10,473 7,143 5,389 6,803 95,359 North Dorset 62,413 7,176 35,245 3,982 11, ,520 Purbeck 88,340 5,115 9,755 2,857 7, ,830 West Dorset 97,117 11,263 53,902 5,941 20, ,997 Weymouth and Portland 7,595 6,948 2,257 4, ,702 Dorset 334,669 47, ,742 25,149 48, ,543 Bournemouth 21,449 22,843 14,336 10, ,141 Poole 25,111 15,121 12,686 8, ,813 Total 381,229 85, ,764 44,558 48, ,498 4 Regional potential for sustainable renewable energy: biomass south west Stage 1 Resource Quantification Science Report SC090009/SR1, Environment Agency, Addendum: Disaggregated analysis of the south west biomass resource by Local Authority, 2010 Amended March 2012 Page 17 of 49

18 4.3. Technically accessible biomass resource (by fuel type) Clean wood (chip/pellet for biomass boilers) Clean wood Technically accessible resource Electricity Electricity Heat Heat Local authority area MW MWh MW MWh Christchurch ,605 East Dorset ,718 North Dorset ,051 Purbeck ,089 West Dorset ,550 Weymouth and Portland ,456 Dorset ,468 Bournemouth ,232 Poole ,345 Total ,045 Clean wood was assessed using data from the Environment Agency s (EA) biomass resource report addendum. The clean wood resource comprises forestry residues and clean waste wood from arboriculture and construction. Clean wood is assumed to be converted to wood chip and wood pellet fuel for commercial and residential heat only biomass boilers. Assumed energy conversion is 5.3 MWh per oven dried tonne (odt) with 85% boiler efficiency. Capacity is derived using a 20% load factor. Amended March 2012 Page 18 of 49

19 Treated wood waste (for Waste Incineration Directive (WID) compliant thermal treatment in CHP plant) Treated wood Technically accessible resource Electricity Electricity Heat Heat Local authority area MW MWh MW MWh Christchurch 0.2 1, ,478 East Dorset 0.3 2, ,189 North Dorset 0.2 1, ,870 Purbeck 0.1 1, ,046 West Dorset 0.3 2, ,505 Weymouth and Portland 0.2 1, ,779 Dorset 1.2 9, ,868 Bournemouth 0.6 4, ,137 Poole 0.4 3, ,048 Total , ,054 Treated wood was assessed using data from the EA biomass resource report addendum. The treated wood resource comprises wood from Municipal Solid Waste / Civic Amenity sites and demolition. Treated wood is assumed to fuel WID compliant biomass CHP plant. Energy conversion is assumed at 5.3 MWh per odt with 20% electrical conversion and 2:1 heat to power ratio. Capacity is derived using a 90% load factor. Amended March 2012 Page 19 of 49

20 Wet biomass (for anaerobic digestion) Wet biomass Technically accessible resource Local authority Electricity Electricity Heat Heat area MW MWh MW MWh Christchurch 0.2 1, ,130 East Dorset 0.6 4, ,452 North Dorset , ,588 Purbeck 0.5 4, ,861 West Dorset , ,719 Weymouth and Portland 0.3 2, ,406 Dorset Bournemouth Poole Total , , , , , , , ,127 Wet biomass was assessed using data from the EA biomass resource report addendum. The resource includes agricultural waste from beef and dairy cattle (16 m 3 /t), pigs (19 m 3 /t) and poultry (48 m 3 /t) and organic waste from domestic (86 m 3 /t), industrial (17 m 3 /t) and commercial (35 m 3 /t) sectors. Energy conversion assumes methane yields indicated with methane (9.4 kw/ m 3 ) being used in gas CHP engines with an electrical conversion of 40% and a heat to power ratio of 1.2:1. Capacity is derived using a 90% load factor. The EA analysis does not include any non-food organic waste (e.g. paper) from MSW which may be available for advanced thermal treatment and legitimately regarded as renewable. The inclusion of this non food waste organic material would increase the renewable energy generation potential. Amended March 2012 Page 20 of 49

21 Energy crops (for CHP plant) Energy crops Technically accessible resource Electricity Electricity Heat Heat Local authority area MW MWh MW MWh Christchurch East Dorset , ,721 North Dorset , ,681 Purbeck , ,106 West Dorset , ,310 Weymouth and Portland Dorset , ,525 Bournemouth Poole Total , ,525 The EA analysis for the south west region assumes that 10% of suitable land (including and excluding permanent grassland) is planted with woody energy crops giving a miscanthus yield of between 44,855 odt/year and 97,487odt/year and an SRC yield of between 12,797odt/year and 29,198 odt/year. The 10% assumption is adopted due to concerns about competition with food crops. The EA dataset does not provide a breakdown of energy crops by district or county. The nearest proxy breakdown for Dorset is the REvision 2010 allocation of forestry and energy crop resource which allocates 58 GWH of the south west s 792 GWh to the county (7.3%). Using a 7.3% allocation for the EA yields gives a Dorset energy crop potential of 3,261 to 7,087odt/year miscanthus and 930 to 2,123 odt/year SRC, a total of 4,192 to 9,210 odt/year. The higher number is assumed as the naturally available resource. Allocation to districts within Dorset is by land area. It is assumed that energy crops are used in biomass CHP plant. Energy conversion is assumed at 5.3 MWh per odt with 20% electrical conversion and 2:1 heat to power ratio. Capacity is derived using a 90% load factor. The EA analysis does not include energy crops such as maize to fuel anaerobic digestion. Amended March 2012 Page 21 of 49

22 Sewage gas (for anaerobic digestion at water treatment plants) Sewage gas Technically accessible resource Electricity Electricity Heat Heat Local authority area MW MWh MW MWh Christchurch 0.1 1, ,385 East Dorset 0.3 2, ,587 North Dorset 0.2 1, ,911 Purbeck 0.1 1, ,371 West Dorset 0.3 2, ,852 Weymouth and Portland 0.2 1, ,965 Dorset , ,072 Bournemouth 0.5 4, ,046 Poole 0.5 3, ,270 Total , ,388 The EA analysis quantified sewage gas in the south west at 33,588,830 m 3 /year for the region s 5 million inhabitants. Sewage gas has been allocated to the Dorset districts by population and methane converted to energy using assuming an energy content of 9.4 kw/m 3 and use in a gas CHP engine with an electrical conversion of 40% and a heat to power ratio of 1.2:1. Capacity is derived using a 90% load factor. Amended March 2012 Page 22 of 49

23 4.4. Total Technically accessible resource heat and electricity Total biomass Technically accessible resource Electricity Electricity Heat Heat Local authority area MW MWh MW MWh Christchurch 0.6 4, ,983 East Dorset , ,667 North Dorset , ,103 Purbeck 1.0 7, ,473 West Dorset , ,935 Weymouth and Portland 0.7 5, ,929 Dorset , ,089 Bournemouth , ,092 Poole , ,957 Total , ,138 The total technically accessible biomass resource is the sum of the five fuel types detailed above and summarised below. Total biomass Technically accessible resource Clean wood Treated Wood Wet biomass Energy Crops Sewage gas Total Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat Local authority area MWe MWth MWe MWth MWe MWth MWe MWth MWe MWth MWe MWth Christchurch East Dorset North Dorset Purbeck West Dorset Weymouth and Portland Dorset Bournemouth Poole Total Amended March 2012 Page 23 of 49

24 4.5. An assessment of the maximum scenario The maximum scenario for biomass can be summarised as follows: Installed to date Maximum installed capacity Maximum generation potential Biomass resource and installed end 2010 Local authority area Electricity installed to date MW Heat installed to date MW Electricity MW Electricity MWh Heat MWh Heat MW Dorset (including unknown) Bournemouth Poole Total The comparison of technical biomass fuel resource and installed capacity illustrates the scope for incremental deployment. Overall, 25% of potential electricity resource and 2.8% of the heat resource is deployed with 9.5 MWe and 197.2MWth un-deployed. Installed clean wood capacity is 4.56MWth, which represents 2.5% of the technical resource of 185 MWth. Installed electricity and heat from AD at 0.85MWe and 0.02MWth represent 12% and 0.2% of the 7.0MWe and 8.4MWth resource respectively. Installed electricity and heat from sewage gas of 2.3MWe and 1.1MWth represents 100% and 41% of the 2.3MWe and 2.7MWth resource respectively. The apparent full deployment in electricity and under deployment in heat suggests that the sewage gas resource is near fully deployed but is biased towards electricity production (as opposed to optimised for CHP). There is no recorded deployment of treated wood or energy crop fuel streams which have a combined potential of 2.4MWe and 6.8MWth. The following assumptions have been used to calculate the maximum scenario:- Wood heat deployment assumes an acceleration of average 2008/09 deployment rates from four times in 2010 to near 17 times in 2020 to achieve full resource deployment by Treated wood deployment is assumed to take place in Dorset with the full resource being deployed by 2015 (probably in a single CHP installation). Full wet biomass deployment is assumed in Dorset and Bournemouth in 2020 with 50% deployed in Wet biomass development is not included in Poole as Amended March 2012 Page 24 of 49

25 Poole s overall technical electricity resource is already fully deployed through its over deployment of sewage gas. Full energy crop deployment in Dorset is assumed by 2015 (probably in a single CHP installation). No additional deployment of sewage gas is assumed as the total technical resource is already developed in Bournemouth and Poole An assessment of the medium scenario Authority Medium deployment levels Installed capacity Electricity Heat MW MW Generation potential Electricit Heat y MWh MWh Dorset Bournemouth Poole Total For biomass the development of this scenario did not simply assume the development of 50% of the maximum technically available resource. Instead, some assumptions have been factored in about the likely number of installations and the most efficient usage of different biomass fuel types to maximise the energy output. This scenario is built upon four technology types consistent with the resource analysis. These comprise: a 20kW domestic clean wood biomass boiler a 150kW commercial clean wood biomass boiler a 2.5MWe biomass CHP unit (for treated wood / energy crops) and a 2MWe AD unit (for wet biomass) Domestic biomass boilers are deployed incrementally in 1% of the 39,000 off gas grid homes per year in Dorset, Bournemouth and Poole. Total deployment in 2020 is 4290 boilers. 150kW commercial boilers are deployed at an average rate of 2.2 per year giving 24.2 boilers in At the larger scale one community CHP plant and 2 AD plants are developed in Dorset. Amended March 2012 Page 25 of 49

26 4.7. An assessment of the minimum scenario Authority Minimal business as usual deployment Installed capacity Electricity MW Heat MW Generation potential Electricity MWh Heat MWh Dorset Bournemouth Poole Total Annual growth in deployment is assumed to be the average of deployment rates in 2008 and 2009 for each fuel type. This is a pessimistic case assuming that the FIT and RHI has no additional impact on 2008 / 2009 deployment levels. Whilst the installation rates have risen sharply since the introduction of these financial incentives it is impossible to predict whether these rates will continue at a high level, whether they have already peaked or how installations would be affected by changes in tariff level, hence the reason for using the pre RHI and pre FIT installation rates as a basis for future calculations Key issues affecting deployment Clean wood Clean wood heat is the main biomass resource in Dorset, Bournemouth & Poole (DBP) at 185MWth. Only 2.5% of the resource (4.6MWth) is currently deployed. Clean wood is best employed to produce renewable heat in biomass boilers. Retrofit installation to replace carbon intensive fuels (electricity, coal, oil) off gas grid is the ideal application. Full deployment of the resource may be possible by 2020 but this will require large order of magnitude increases in uptake rates. The Renewable Heat incentive (RHI), once introduced, is likely to play a major role in encouraging deployment, but the development of efficient, competitive and reliable local wood fuel supply chains will be important if the potential is to be realised. Wood fuel supply is also a potentially important contributor to the rural economy Wet biomass waste This is the second largest resource in DBP with the potential for 7.0MWe and 8.4MWth. Energy conversion of this fuel stream is achieved in anaerobic digestion (AD) plants. There are several plants currently operating in DBP but there is potential for a seven fold expansion in electricity output and a much more significant expansion of heat. It is important that AD is deployed in Combined Heat & Power (CHP) plant in order to efficiently use the heat resource. Heat maps enable local authorities and developers to identify opportunities for CHP and district heating. New development can also be an important opportunity to provide heat mains. Local authorities should assess larger commercial and domestic planning applications for their potential to provide suitable loads for CHP. Amended March 2012 Page 26 of 49

27 Treated wood and energy crops These resources can be deployed in Waste Incineration Directive (WID) compliant biomass CHP plant. The treated wood and energy crop resource in DBP (2.3MWe and 4.7MWth) is relatively small and may, therefore, be consumed in a single installation. Heat maps enable local authorities and developers to identify opportunities for CHP. New development can also be an important opportunity. Local authorities should assess larger commercial and domestic planning applications for their potential to provide suitable loads for CHP Sewage gas The sewage gas resource appears to be near fully developed by the water industry in DBP with little scope for further deployment. Amended March 2012 Page 27 of 49

28 5. Microgeneration technologies 5.1. Current deployment figures The following table shows installations of Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHPs) & Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) & Solar Photovoltaics (PV) & Solar Water Heating (SWH) in Bournemouth, Dorset & Poole as of 31 January Local Authority area Installed capacity (MW) at 31 Jan 2011 ASHPs & GSHPs Solar PV Bournemouth Christchurch East Dorset North Dorset Poole Purbeck West Dorset Weymouth and Portland Total installed capacity Number of projects Solar water heating The DECC/SQW methodology, and therefore the South West microgeneration resource assessment based on it, which was undertaken for Regen SW by AEA Technology, does not provide separate figures for ASHP and GSHP installations, instead providing one combining figure for both technologies. Although it is possible to provide separate figures for ASHP and GSHP installations from Regen SW s annual survey data, one combined figure for both has been provided in the table above to ensure consistency with the rest of this document Total naturally available resource (equates to level 1 of SQW methodology) The DECC/SQW methodology being used for the basis of this assessment covers the following renewable energy technologies and scales under the title of Microgeneration - Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP) and Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) installations up to 100kW and Solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Solar Water Heating (SWH) installations up to 10kW. This differs from the commonly used definition of microgeneration, which covers Biomass, Water Source Heat Pumps (WSHPs) as well as ASHPs and GSHPs, Hydro, Solar PV, SWH and Wind up to 50kW for electricity and up to 45 kw for heat. Amended March 2012 Page 28 of 49

29 The DECC/SQW methodology states that microgeneration-scale Biomass, Hydro and Wind are not included here because they are captured in full in other parts of the resource assessment and that Water Source Heat Pumps (WSHPs) are excluded because their potential in the UK is deemed to be negligible. The DECC/SQW methodology sums up the renewable energy technologies it covers as those which depend directly on the built environment capacity, although this isn t strictly correct in the case of Solar PV which can be ground-mounted and feed directly into the grid (although it should be noted that this is unlikely to occur at the scale of solar PV up to 10kW covered in this part of the assessment). The following table shows the potential for Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHPs) & Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) up to 100kW & Solar Photovoltaics (PV) & Solar Water Heating (SWH) up to 10kW in Bournemouth, Dorset & Poole based on DECC/SQW methodology. Resource assessment to 2026 based on DECC/SQW methodology (MW) ASHPs & GSHPs Local Authority area Solar PV SWH Bournemouth Christchurch East Dorset North Dorset Poole Purbeck West Dorset Weymouth and Portland Total The columns for Solar PV and SWH should not be summed as the calculation for each is based on total available roof space as per the DECC/SQW methodology. The figure for Solar PV is higher in each case as SWH has not been included for commercial buildings in line with the methodology. Amended March 2012 Page 29 of 49

30 The figures in the table above are based on the following assumptions from the DECC/SQW methodology: Property type ASHPs & GSHPs Solar PV SWH Domestic Off-gas grid existing 100% On-gas grid existing: Detached/Semi 75% Terraced 50% Flats 25% Existing 25% New build Existing 25% New build New build 50% 5kW 50% 2kW 50% 2kW Commercial New build not covered Existing 10% Industrial New build not covered Existing 0% N/A Existing 80% 100k W Existing 40% 5kW Existing 0% N/A 10k W Existing 80% 1. The first column for each technology shows the percentage of properties in that property type assumed to be suitable for that particular technology and the second column shows the assumed capacity of a single installation in a suitable property in that property type. 2. The DECC/SQW methodology assumes SWH is not suitable for commercial premises. 3. The methodology assumes ASHPs and GSHPs are not suitable for industrial premises. 4. A figure for the percentage of commercial premises suitable for ASHPs or GSHPs was missing from the DECC/SQW methodology. The figure of 10% used here was provided to AEA by SQW. AEA questioned a number of the assumptions in the DECC/SQW methodology as follows: (i) AEA felt that more than 25% of domestic properties may be suitable for Solar PV, (ii) AEA felt that the assumptions for the number of domestic properties suitable for ASHPs and GSHPs were too high and that the figure of 10% of commercial properties suitable for ASHPs and GSHPs may be too high, and (iii) AEA noted that the installation size of 5kW for Solar PV on commercial property is not explained in the DECC/SQW methodology. Regen SW has significant concerns about the assumptions used in the DECC/SQW methodology relating to ASHPs and GSHPs and believes that the potential for ASHPs and GSHPs is significantly overstated. A recent independent field trial by the Energy Saving Trust (EST) which monitored the performance of more than 80 domestic ASHP and GSHP installations in the UK over more than a year found that most of the installations performed poorly, mainly due to being installed in unsuitable buildings or errors in design and/or installation. As a result EST now recommends that for domestic properties, which is EST s 10k W Amended March 2012 Page 30 of 49

31 remit, heat pumps should only be considered in well-insulated off-gas grid properties or in new build properties. As recommended by the DECC/SQW methodology the number of new dwellings used to help calculate the figures in the table above are taken from the SW Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS). As the Government has announced that RSSs have been abolished, the number of new dwellings contained in the SW RSS is unlikely to be accurate, but as yet there is no alternative figure to base calculations on. The DECC/SQW methodology and therefore the figures in Table 2 above excludes potential demand from existing public sector and third sector buildings and all new non-domestic buildings. The reasons this potential demand has been excluded are unclear, although Regen SW is aware that collecting accurate data for these building types has proved difficult in the past. The DCC/SQW methodology aims to deliver a technical assessment of resource potential it is not an assessment of the likely uptake of these technologies. There are a wide range of different variables that will impact the uptake and mix of these technologies, some of which are general and some of which are technology specific. These include, but are not limited to: i. the costs of the different technologies over the next years ii. the costs of energy over the next years iii. Government policy iv. the suitability of properties for the different technologies, for example the suitability of heating and/or plumbing systems for ASHPs, GSHPs or SWH, suitable orientation, pitch and strength of roofs for solar panels, suitable ground conditions and space for GSHPs v. the willingness of people to install these technologies An assessment of the maximum scenario The figures for the potential for Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHPs) & Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) up to 100kW & Solar Photovoltaics (PV) & Solar Water Heating (SWH) up to 10kW in Bournemouth, Dorset & Poole up to 2020 based on DECC/SQW methodology (as shown in the table above) have been revised as detailed below based on Regen SW s knowledge and understanding to produce the figures below for the technically accessible resource. The change to the assumptions from the DECC methodology was: to exclude all on-gas properties from eligibility for heat pumps to reduce the number of off-gas properties that were suitable for heat pumps from 100% to 50%. to reduce the timescale for new development from 2026 to 2020 to assume for solar that 50% of the total number of domestic, new development and industrial solar installations would be PV and 50% would be solar thermal. Commercial solar installations would all be PV. Amended March 2012 Page 31 of 49

32 Technically accessible resource up to 2020 (MW) Local Authority area ASHPs & GSHPs Solar PV SWH Bournemouth Christchurch East Dorset North Dorset Poole Purbeck West Dorset Weymouth and Portland Total Amended March 2012 Page 32 of 49

33 5.4. An assessment of the medium scenario Medium scenario deployment by 2020 (MW) Local Authority ASHP and GSHP Solar PV Solar thermal Bournemouth Christchurch East Dorset North Dorset Poole Purbeck West Dorset Weymouth and Portland Total The medium scenario has been calculated based on 50% of the maximum scenario being deployed by Additional caveats The maximum figures are highly theoretical using strategic level analysis, and as such are considered to be unrealistically high against the likely practical maximum, once on the ground local testing had been factored in. It should be noted that not all properties will be suitable and more detailed testing/analysis is needed at LA level to determine more realistic installation figures. Microgeneration technologies are on the whole installed to meet on-site demand, so whilst the technical potential for these technologies is calculated based on the suitability of buildings, one of the key factors in determining which technologies are installed & how many of them will be installed is on-site energy demand. This is very different to large standalone renewables whose size is determined by resource and site constraints, but not by demand It should be noted that: installing more than 1 space heating technology e.g. biomass & a heat pump is unlikely to happen installing more than 1 electricity generating technology e.g. 2 or more of hydro, PV & wind would be unusual a combination of 1 space heating technology + SHW can work well and will be more common although limited by a range of technical & non-technical factors such as the suitability of the property's roof & plumbing system, the RHI tariff levels, people's ability to pay, the cost of energy etc installing a combination of 1 electricity generating technology & 1 heat generating technology (or possibly even 1 space heating technology + SHW) may occur although again it will be limited by a range of technical & non-technical factors. Amended March 2012 Page 33 of 49