GREATER ST. LOUIS EMPLOYMENT SUMMARY July 2016 Preliminary Data

Transcription

1 GREATER ST. LOUIS EMPLOYMENT SUMMARY July 2016 Preliminary Data Prepared August 31, 2016

2 OVERVIEW The nation s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in July, unchanged from June. The region s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.6 percent, also unchanged from June. The region s unemployment levels continue to track slightly below the nation. Nationally, the preliminary seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment numbers for July saw the addition of 255,000 jobs. The region s seasonally adjusted payroll employment fell by 3,100 jobs for an over-the -month loss of 0.2 percent. The region s not-seasonally adjusted payroll employment data series points to continued strength in the job market. Over-the-year unadjusted job data from July 2015 to July 2016 shows that total employment in the region rose by 26,200 jobs, a 2.0 percent increase. At the same time, the nation s employment grew by 1.7 percent. This summary is available on the Economic Overview page of the St. Louis Regional Chamber website. The next summary will be available September 29, Please note that the preliminary data presented in this summary is subject to change. This month, the regional unemployment data is provisional and subject to change. One month s data does not necessarily indicate a trend (See page 8). Please refer to the page 4 to see long term unemployment trends and page 7 to look at nonfarm employment trends since Unemployment Rate PEOPLE Seasonally adjusted July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 St. Louis MSA 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% Illinois 5.8% 6.2% 6.4% Missouri 4.7% 4.5% 4.3% United States 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 1 Payroll Employment JOBS Seasonally adjusted July 2016 Job Over-the-Month Over-the-Month St. Louis MSA 1,369,300-3, % Illinois 6,013,900 11, % Missouri 2,816,600 2, % United States 144,448, , % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 Monthly Employment Summary page 2

3 Labor Force & Unemployment Rates PEOPLE ST. LOUIS, MO-IL MSA LABOR FORCE Not seasonally adjusted MONTHLY ANNUAL AVERAGE July 2016 (P) July Total Civilian Labor Force 1,514,849 1,500, % 1,481,423 1,457, % Total Employed 1,439,149 1,418, % 1,406,552 1,366, % Total Unemployed 75,700 78, % 74,871 91, % Unemployment Rate 5.0% 5.4% % 6.3% -- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 3 UNITED STATES LABOR FORCE Not seasonally adjusted MONTHLY ANNUAL AVERAGE July 2016 (P) July Total Civilian Labor Force 160,705, ,527, % 157,130, ,922, % Total Employed 152,437, ,722, % 148,834, ,305, % Total Unemployed 8,267,000 8,805, % 8,296,000 9,617, % Unemployment Rate 5.1% 5.6% % 6.2% -- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 4 Snapshot ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT From July 2015 to July 2016, the number of employed persons in the St. Louis region increased by more than 20,500 while the labor force increased by about 14,600. Monthly Employment Summary page 3

4 Pittsburgh Chicago Atlanta U.S. Kansas City St. Louis Charlotte Baltimore Research Triangle Cincinnati Dallas Indianapolis Minneapolis Denver 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4% 5.5% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 4.8% 6.3% Unemployment Trends PEOPLE 12% 10% 8% 6% Snapshot NATIONAL COMPARISON The region s unemployment rate continues to track closely with the national unemployment rate. 4% 2% 0% St. Louis MSA U.S. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 5 Unemployment by Peer Markets PEOPLE 7% 6% U.S. Metros RATE CHANGE 5% 4% July 2016 unemployment rate compared to July % 2% 387 metropolitan areas total Lower 279 Unchanged 21 Higher 87 1% JOBLESS RATE 0% Eight areas registered rates of less than 3 percent Five areas registered rates of at least 10 percent Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 Note: Monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and July 2016 rates are preliminary Monthly Employment Summary page 4

5 Geographic Distribution of Unemployment Rates PEOPLE July 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 7 and Illinois Department of Employment Security 8 Note: Monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and July 2016 rates are preliminary Monthly Employment Summary page 5

6 Civilian Labor Force PEOPLE CURRENT MONTH - July 2016 (P) YEAR AGO - July 2015 AREA Unemployment Unemployment Labor Force Employment Labor Force Employment Number Rate Number Rate United States 160,705, ,437,000 8,267, % 158,527, ,722,000 8,805, % Illinois 6,668,462 6,310, , % 6,595,668 6,188, , % Missouri 3,166,399 3,002, , % 3,143,569 2,974, , % St. Louis, MO-IL 1,509,497 1,435,482 74, % 1,500,235 1,418,569 81, % Missouri Counties Franklin 54,250 51,627 2, % 53,836 50,963 2, % Jefferson 121, ,423 5, % 120, ,986 6, % Lincoln 27,666 26,361 1, % 27,496 26,014 1, % St. Charles 222, ,563 8, % 219, ,891 9, % St. Louis County 553, ,212 26, % 548, ,638 27, % Warren 17,814 17, % 17,709 16, % St. Louis City 166, ,450 10, % 165, ,512 11, % Illinois Counties Bond 8,224 7, % 8,008 7, % Calhoun 2,432 2, % 2,397 2, % Clinton 20,781 19, % 20,335 19, % Jersey 11,437 10, % 11,296 10, % Macoupin 23,919 22,589 1, % 23,510 22,017 1, % Madison 136, ,570 8, % 134, ,094 8, % Monroe 18,454 17, % 18,181 17, % St. Clair 129, ,740 7, % 128, ,497 9, % Missouri Cities of 25,000 or more Ballwin 17,663 17, % 17,518 16, % Chesterfield 25,846 24, % 25,588 24, % Florissant 29,538 28,100 1, % 29,283 27,750 1, % Hazelwood 14,497 13, % 14,368 13, % Kirkwood 16,416 15, % 16,265 15, % Maryland Hgts. 16,866 16, % 16,767 16, % O'Fallon 48,831 47,210 1, % 48,290 46,620 1, % St. Charles 39,252 37,618 1, % 38,828 37,147 1, % St. Louis 166, ,450 10, % 165, ,512 11, % St. Peters 34,748 33,384 1, % 34,416 32,967 1, % University City 19,758 18, % 19,592 18,591 1, % Wentzville 18,900 18, % 18,727 18, % Wildwood 19,821 19, % 19,639 18, % Illinois Cities of 25,000 or more Alton 11,966 11, % 11,876 10,799 1, % Belleville 22,992 21,532 1, % 22,732 21,135 1, % Collinsville 13,219 12, % 13,051 12, % East St. Louis 9,252 8,244 1, % 9,234 8,092 1, % Edwardsville 13,407 12, % 13,170 12, % Granite City 13,891 12,670 1, % 13,623 12,426 1, % O'Fallon 13,993 13, % 13,882 13, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 and Illinois Department of Employment Security 10 Monthly Employment Summary page 6

7 Nonfarm Employment JOBS Over the Year S T. L O U I S M S A U N I T E D S T A T E S Year July (P) July (P) ,338,000 29, % 141,774,000 3,029, % ,364,200 26, % 144,185,000 2,411, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 Nonfarm Employment JOBS S T. L O U I S M S A U N I T E D S T A T E S Year Nonfarm Employment Nonfarm Employment ,160,900 2, % 108,802, , % ,177,400 16, % 110,935,000 2,133, % ,209,600 32, % 114,398,000 3,463, % ,229,500 19, % 117,407,000 3,009, % ,250,400 20, % 119,836,000 2,429, % ,274,700 24, % 122,951,000 3,115, % ,295,700 21, % 126,157,000 3,206, % ,312,300 16, % 129,240,000 3,083, % ,327,000 14, % 132,024,000 2,784, % ,328,400 1, % 132,087,000 63, % ,321,600 (6,800) -0.5% 130,649,000 (1,438,000) -1.1% ,312,500 (9,100) -0.7% 130,347,000 (302,000) -0.2% ,312,100 (400) 0.0% 131,787,000 1,440, % ,328,100 16, % 134,051,000 2,264, % ,341,800 13, % 136,453,000 2,402, % ,350,900 9, % 137,999,000 1,546, % ,347,300 (3,600) -0.3% 137,242,000 (757,000) -0.5% ,290,700 (56,600) -4.2% 131,313,000 (5,929,000) -4.3% ,281,300 (9,400) -0.7% 130,361,000 (952,000) -0.7% ,293,600 12, % 131,932,000 1,571, % ,294, % 134,175,000 2,243, % ,303,900 9, % 136,381,000 2,206, % ,319,700 15, % 138,958,000 2,577, % ,343,700 24, % 141,865,000 2,907, % Total 182, % Total 33,063, % Compound Average Growth Rate 0.64% Compound Average Growth Rate 1.16% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 12 monthly employment summary page 7

8 Pittsburgh Chicago Kansas City United States Indianapolis Minneapolis Cincinnati St. Louis Charlotte Baltimore Atlanta Research Triangle Dallas Denver 0.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.7% Looking Ahead - National Employment - June JOBS National Total Nonfarm Private Job Growth SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA JULY AUGUST 2016 Industry Growth SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA JULY AUGUST 2016 TOTAL JOBS +177,000 BY COMPANY SIZE SMALL BUSINESSES 1-19 EMPLOYEES EMPLOYEES 63,000 24,000 38,000 GOODS-PRODUCING -6,000 MANUFACTURING 0 MEDIUM BUSINESSES EMPLOYEES LARGE BUSINESSES EMPLOYEES 1,000+ EMPLOYEES 44,000 44,000 70,000 25,000 46,000 SERVICE-PRODUCING 183,000 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 53,000 15,000 Source: ADP National Employment Report 13 Employment Growth by Peer Markets JOBS U.S. Metro RATE CHANGE July 2016 nonfarm employment compared to July metropolitan areas total Increased 331 Unchanged 4 Decreased % 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 14 Note: Monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and July 2016 rates are preliminary Monthly Employment Summary page 8

9 Total Non-Farm Mining, Logging & Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education Health Care Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Total Non-Farm Mining, Logging.& Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education Health Care Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Employment Trends by Industry Sector JOBS PERCENT CHANGE IN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ST. LOUIS MSA AND U.S. JULY 2015 TO JULY % 8% St. Louis U.S. 7.6% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2.0% 1.7% 2.5% 1.0% -0.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 2.5% 2.0% 3.4% 3.2% 2.6% 1.7% 1.1% 3.0% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% -4% -3.3% -3.4% CHANGE IN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ST. LOUIS MSA JULY 2015 TO JULY ,000 25,000 26,200 20,000 15,000 11,700 10,000 5,000 - (5,000) 1,600 (3,800) 4,300 (1,000) 2,200 7,100 1,100 2, (10,000) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 Note: Monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and July 2016 rates are preliminary Monthly Employment Summary page 9

10 Aug '15 Sept '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 June '16 July '16 Aug '16 154, , , , , , , , , , , , ,943 National Forecasts More than 60 economists participate in a monthly, national economic forecast published by the Wall Street Journal; this monthly consensus forecast shows expectations for modest economic growth through Snapshot 3% 2% 1% 0% ANNUAL GDP FORECASTS 2.2% 1.8% 2.1% U.S. GDP is forecasted to grow 1.8 percent in 2016 and pick up to 2.2 percent in 2017 and 2.1 percent in % YEAR END UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.9% The nation s unemployment rate is expected to stay below 5.0 percent through the end of % 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.5% Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Dec 2018 Economists continue to expect employment growth over the next 12 months. The forecast for jobs-per-month in August was 173,943, a level that would add about 2.0 million jobs over the next 12 months or an annual growth rate of about 1.4%. 250, ,000 MONTHLY PAYROLL GROWTH FORECASTS NEXT 12 MONTHS 150, ,000 Forecast Month Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Survey 16 Monthly Employment Summary page 10

11 Survey Comparison Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases current employment data in the Employment Situation. The data comes from two different surveys: the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, also known as the establishment or payroll survey. While both surveys measure employment, they have different samples, employment definitions, estimation procedures and concepts. These two series track well together over long periods but, in the short term, do occasionally diverge. MONTHLY SAMPLE MEASUREMENT REFERENCE PERIOD CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY Approximately 60,000 households Unemployment & employment with significant demographic detail Week that includes the 12 th of the month CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS SURVEY 160,000 businesses & government agencies; firms of all sizes are included Employment, earnings, & hours with significant industrial & geographic detail Pay period that includes the 12 th of the month WORK FORCE Only workers aged 16 and older Employees of all ages are included EXHIBITS The number of employed persons The number of nonfarm payroll jobs MULTIPLE JOB HOLDERS Counted once Counted for each payroll job SELF-EMPLOYED PERSONS Included Excluded AGRICULTURE SECTOR Included Excluded PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD WORKERS Included Excluded UNPAID FAMILY WORKERS Included Excluded WORKERS ON LEAVE Included Excluded Source: BLS, Monthly Labor Review 17 monthly employment summary page 11

12 DESCRIPTION Current Employment Statistics Survey Monthly survey of nonfarm business establishments for the estimation of industry employment, hours and earnings, for the 50 states and 250 metropolitan statistical areas surveyed. Local Area Unemployment Statistics Survey Monthly estimates of labor force, employment and unemployment for state and local areas. The local unemployment estimates are the basis for determining area eligibility for benefits under the Workforce Invest Act and other federal programs. DATA SOURCE The program is a federal-state cooperative program between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and State agencies. The national sample Consists of 400,000 businesses and is the largest survey of its kind. Cooperative effort between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & State agencies. Models use both current and historical data from the Current Population Survey, Current Employment Statistics program, and Unemployment Insurance statistics program to provide estimates of employment and unemployment. DEFINITION The count of jobs by place of work rather than of employed persons. Persons age 16 or older who, in the survey week, worked for pay or profit, or worked unpaid in a family operated business, or were temporarily absent from their regular jobs. PROVISIONS Industry employment time series Total number of nonsupervisory/production workers One of the earliest monthly economic indicators released by the government; usually causes immediate reaction in the stock and bond market Average weekly hours earnings View of the nation s economic health through employment numbers; earnings trends and wage push inflation through average hourly earnings; and short term fluctuations in demand through average weekly hours of work Labor force, employment and unemployment rates Comparative rates Monthly date from 1990 to present Insight into state and local governments planning and budgetary decisions Aids in the determination of need for employment and training services Determination of eligibility for federal programs and formula funding Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development 18 Monthly Employment Summary page 12

13 Sources 1 Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates and Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 8/31/ Employment, Hours, and Earnings (CES) U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, #employment, Accessed 8/31/16. Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 8/30/16. Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Missouri Economic Research and Information Center, Accessed 8/31/16. Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 8/31/16. Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 8/31/16. Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment - July 2016 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Accessed 8/31/16. Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 8/31/16. Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Illinois Department of Employment Security, Accessed 8/31/16 Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 8/31/16. Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Illinois Department of Employment Security, Accessed 8/31/16 Employment, Hours, and Earnings (CES) U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, querytool.jsp?survey=sm, Accessed 8/31/16. Employment, Hours, and Earnings (CES) U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, querytool.jsp?survey=sm, Accessed 8/31/16. ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment August 2016 ADP, Accessed 8/31/ Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment - July 2016 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Accessed 8/31/ Employment, Hours, and Earnings (CES) U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, querytool.jsp?survey=sm, Accessed 8/31/16. Wall Street Journal Economic Survey: August Accessed 8/31/16. Understanding the Employment Measures from the CPS and CES Survey Monthly Labor Review, March 2006, Accessed 5/1/09. Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, Home.htm, Accessed 5/1/09. Monthly Employment Summary page 13

14 PREPARED August 31, 2016 NEXT RELEASE September 29, 2016 NEXT UPDATES August 2016 data BLS U.S. Level September 2 BLS State Level September 20 MO & IL State Labor Market Release September 13 & September 15 BLS Metro Level September 28 ST. LOUIS, MO-IL MSA COMPILED BY RUTH SERGENIAN DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC RESEARCH & ANALYSIS JASON WHITELEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INTERN ST. LOUIS REGIONAL CH AMBER O N E M E T R O P O L I T A N S Q U A R E S U I T E S T. L O U I S, M O W W W. S T L R E G I O N A L C H A M B E R. C O M T HE ST. LOUI S R EGIO N AL CH A MB ER I S THE C HA M BE R OF CO M M ER CE AND ECONO MI C D EV ELO P ME N T ORGANIZAT IO N FOR G RE AT E R ST. LOUIS, W HICH INCLUD E S 15 C OUNTI ES IN MI SS OURI & I LLINOI S.