ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Transcription

1 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES guiding effective decisions in real estate, community, and economic development A Tale of Contradictory Indicators ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Full Employment for Economic Developers GREATER ST. LOUIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT NETWORK January 23, 2014 We have a lot to do! Bob Lewis, PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 10 S. Broadway, Suite 1500 St. Louis, MO Phone: (314) Fax: (314) RML@development-strategies.com

2 Part of metro area counties. DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOU ARE? 8 Illinois counties 7 Missouri counties 2

3 How many of you knew about this publication? 16 pages of numbers! Shoutout to Ruth Sergenian! stlregionalchamber.com/ Click on Regional Data then click Economy 3

4 FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE Beige Book stlregionalchamber.com/ Click on Regional Data then click Economy 4

5 20 LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS 2012 Top 20 metros: 38% of U.S.A. 381 metros in U.S.: 85% of population (bottom 361: 47%) Smallest: Carson City, NV 54,800 New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore Millions of residents 536 micropolitan areas: 8.6% of U.S. (172 larger than Carson City!) 5

6 20 LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS Big 4 Professional Sports Teams Top 20 metros: 57% of MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL (includes Canada) 70 teams of 124 total teams 77% baseball 59% football 37% basketball 53% hockey New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore KC: 2 teams, 30 th OKC: 1 team, 42 nd Green Bay: 1 team, 115th 6

7 POPULATION GROWTH RATES BY DECADE 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 15.1% USA 12.7% 18.6% USA 15.6% 12.1% USA 11.8% USA 10.3% -1.3% USA 8.9% 3.1% USA 11.6% USA 8.8% 4.6% 4.7% -5%

8 KEY METRO AREA DEVELOPMENT FACTORS 8

9 9 METRO AREA DEVELOPMENT CONCENTRATIONS

10 10 METRO AREA DEVELOPMENT CONCENTRATIONS

11 POPULATION BY COUNTY 2012 Total Population: 2,795,900 Metro East 25% Metro West 75% St. Louis Co. 36% Chicago City 2,714,900 Metro 9,522,400 Kansas City City 464,300 Metro 2,038,700 StL City Calhoun St. Clair St. Louis Macoupin Clinton Madison Jersey Bond Franklin Jefferson Monroe Warren St. Charles Lincoln Metro East Metro West 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000, ,200 5, ,900 1,000,400 47,200 38, ,900 22,700 17, , ,200 33,400 32, ,700 53, ,800 2,095,100 11

12 POPULATION GROWTH BY COUNTY 1990 to 2012 (percent change) Total Population: Up 8.3% StL City Calhoun Macoupin St. Louis St. Clair Madison Jersey Clinton Bond Franklin Jefferson Monroe Warren St. Charles Lincoln Metro East Metro West -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -19.8% -5.7% -1.0% 0.7% 2.3% 7.5% 10.7% 12.4% 17.3% 25.8% 28.5% 6.7% 8.9% 49.1% 68.2% 73.2% 84.8% 12

13 POPULATION PER SQUARE MILE 2012 St. Louis City: 2.6 X St. Louis Co. 7.8 X St. Charles Co. 1950: 856,800 residents 13,819 per square mile 1950: 45% of metro 2012: 11.5% of metro St. Louis City St. Louis County St. Charles County St. Clair County Madison County Jefferson County Franklin County Monroe County Lincoln County Clinton County Warren County Jersey County Macoupin County Bond County Calhoun County 0 2,000 4,000 6, ,132 1,969 13

14 METROPOLITAN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Millions

15 JOB LOCATION QUOTIENTS Metro St. Louis 2011 LQ of 1.0: Same percent as U.S. St. Louis: Quite Balanced...a good thing? Strengths: Management of Enterprises ( Fortune 500 Town ) Educational Services (private) Utilities (big companies, big territories) Forestry, Agric. Support Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp. & Warehsg Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate Prof, Sci, Tech Services Mgt of Enterprises Admin, waste mgt. Educational Services Health Care & Soc. Asst. Arts, Ent, Recreation Lodging & Dining Other services

16 COMPANY Express Scripts Emerson Electric Monsanto Reinsurance Grp of America Centene Peabody Energy Ameren Graybar Electric Jones Financial (Edw Jones) 491 FORTUNE 500 HQs IN METRO ST. LOUIS Annual Rankings Charter Communications Smurfit-Stone Anheuser-Busch May Department Stores Premcor (Clark USA) 285 No. of Companies St. Louis to USA: Fortune % Population 0.9% Jobs 1.0% GDP 0.7% 16

17 FORTUNE 500 HQs IN METRO ST. LOUIS Memory Lane COMPANY Express Scripts 371 Emerson Electric Monsanto Ameren Graybar Electric Anheuser-Busch May Department Stores Premcor (Clark USA) TWA Ralston Purina GenAmerica Mercantile Bank 496 Jefferson Smurfit McDonnell Douglas Boatmen's Bank No. of Companies to Gen America Mercantile Bank Jefferson Smurfit Smurfit-Stone McDonnell Douglas Boatmen s Bank Charter Communic. Ralston Purina Premcor TWA May Dept. Stores Anheuser-Busch 17

18 JOB LOCATION QUOTIENTS Metro St. Louis 2011 LQ of Zero: Same percent as U.S. St. Louis: Quite Balanced...a good thing? Strengths: Management of Enterprises ( Fortune 500 Town ) Educational Services (private) Utilities (big companies, big territories) Forestry, Agric. Support Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp. & Warehsg Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate Prof, Sci, Tech Services Mgt of Enterprises Admin, waste mgt. Educational Services Health Care & Soc. Asst. Arts, Ent, Recreation Lodging & Dining Other services (0.75) (0.83) (0.13) (0.03) (0.05) (0.05) (0.14) (0.09) (0.12) (0.04) (0.02)

19 RESILIENCE INDEX - ABSOLUTE VALUES OF LOCATION QUOTIENTS Resilience Index: Low is better, like golf. Location Quotients are both negative and positive. Absolute Values are always POSITIVE numbers. Sum of absolute values: Measure of distance from ZERO. Lower means tighter, or less vulnerability.? 19

20 RESILIANCE INDEX TOP 20 METROS 2011 (Employment) Resilience Index: St. Louis is in FIRST PLACE! The most resilient metro economy in America. Of course! Ummm...maybe? You re nuts. Let s market it anyway. New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore

21 MAYBE ST. LOUIS IS COOLER THAN WE IMAGINE 21

22 OLD PEOPLE ON THE MOVE LABOR FORCE CHALLENGES... 22

23 RESILIANCE INDEX TOP 20 METROS 1998 (Employment) We were even better in So we ve slipped? Improved Indices: New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Miami Atlanta Phoenix San Diego Tampa New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore

24 RESILIANCE INDEX TOP 20 METROS 2012 (Employee Earnings) Earnings from Employment: St. Louis is still Number One! Over Time: New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore FINANCE, P-T SVCS MFG, PROF-TECH SERVICES GOVERNMENT, PROF-TECH SERVICES PROF-TECH SERVICES

25 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT St. Louis vs. U.S.A. (Indexed to 100) St. Louis Only Detroit crashed further. U.S.A. 100 RECESSION 25

26 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Increase Over Recession Low St. Louis is 19 th in growing past the worst of the recession. We re not Los Angeles! New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore United States 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0.4% 3.8% 4.6% 2.2% 5.5% 2.5% 3.9% 5.7% 7.3% 1.6% 2.7% 9.5% 7.3% 7.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.9% 7.6% 4.8% 11.2% 17.8% 26

27 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Compared to Pre-Recession Peak St. Louis is also 19 th in reaching pre-recession GDP (inflation adjusted). We re not Detroit! New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore United States -20% -10% 0% 10% -14.5% -11.0% 0.0% -5.2% -0.8% -6.3% -2.3% -7.0% -3.5% -5.3% -0.4% 5.8% 8.8% 1.3% 5.4% 4.6% 1.5% 0.8% 5.8% 4.6% 6.5% 27

28 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT per WORKER 2011 YIKES! Productivity $94,000 per worker Half of Houston Full Employment for Economic Developers We have a lot to do! New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore United States $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $94 $179 $148 $143 $155 $192 $144 $180 $140 $141 $144 $188 $135 $129 $128 $166 $131 $150 $121 $141 $132 28

29 HOW ABOUT SOME GOOD NEWS, BOB!

30 FINANCIAL & INFORMATION SERVICES 80,000 jobs & 6,200 establishments 3 rd most concentrated market for securities brokerage (New York, Boston, St. Louis) STL showed biggest gain in financial service jobs (5,600) from Top 5 lost 39,000 Major expansions by Edward Jones, Wells Fargo Advisors, Reinsurance Group of America

31 HEALTH SCIENCE & SERVICES 190,000 jobs in 6,400 establishments 3 rd most concentrated market for hospital employment (Boston, Baltimore, St. Louis); 10-yr job growth of 26% 2 medical universities, 2 colleges of pharmacy, 9 nursing schools, 1 school each of optometry, dentistry, chiropractic Core strengths at convergence of genomics, population health management, & personalized medicine Major expansion anticipated by Express Scripts

32 MULTIMODAL LOGISTICS STL at convergence of 2 major rivers, 6 Class-One railroads, and 4 US interstates 2 major airports with international cargo capacity 3 rd largest rail market; 2 nd largest inland port (by tonnage) STL region cost competitive for 1 or 3+ DC network model Effective logistics key to advanced manufacturing

33 BIOSCIENCES Consistently among the top markets for NIH funded research Extraordinary concentration of world-class scientists in medical & plant sciences History of medical breakthroughs led international effort to map human genome Home to major multinationals, bio-venture funds, robust pipeline of startups, & ecosystem to support them Monsanto: $400 million expansion new jobs Strong leadership by BioSTL

34 RECENT RANKINGS (April 2013) STL fastest growing city for year-over-year techjob postings (Dice.com) STL among top 10 Large American Cities of the Future for Human Resources (fdi Magazine published by Financial Times) STL #4 in Hot Cities for IT Jobs (Modis.com) STL #1 for Happiest Cities for Career-Seeking College Grads (CareerBliss.com) STL Top Sleeper City for tourism based on affordability, accessibility, & attractions (FoxNews.com)

35 PARTING THOUGHTS St. Louis is big. Big is relative. But we re big. We are statistically resilient. Goldilocks resilient. Not too hot, not too cold. Most of the time. Dramatics are not us. Except during recessions. Overall strength is managerial prowess: We manage challenges better? Anticipate change? Harness this prowess to grow faster. Productivity sluggishness is a big challenge. More bachelor s degrees...good idea. We have a lot to do, but a lot to work with, too. 35