Planning heating systems and building renovation with emissions targets. Peter Ahcin, entechma GmbH

Transcription

1 Planning heaing sysems and building renovaion wih emissions arges Peer Ahcin, enechma GmbH

2 Conens 1. Inroducion 2. The energy sysem porfolio framework 3. The benefi of he sochasic approach o planning heaing sysems and building renovaion 4. The cos of sricer emissions arges 5. Conclusion

3 Inroducion: Sources of GHG emissions in Bern Due o he low carbon inensiy of he Swiss elecriciy mix he elecriciy consumpion is responsible for abou 5%. Heaing sysems make up abou 67% of all GHG emissions in Bern. Road ranspor 13% Miscellaneous 4% Wase incineraion 11% Agriculure 1% Gas fired HS 28% According o McKinsey&Co. 45% of he abaemen poenial is in he building secor. Mos of i wih a negaive cos. Highway ranspor 15% Oil fired HS 28% Source: Klimagasbilanz für die Sad Bern, Am für Umwelschuz der Sad Bern, 2008.

4 Inroducion 1. Swizerland has se emissions arges o 20% reducion in 2020 and 80% by Many Swiss energy supplying companies are obliged by he ciy councils o inves ino building renovaion. 3. How do you mee emissions arges wih minimal cos by invesing ino energy sources, generaion and efficiency measures under energy price uncerainy?

5 Heaing sysems and building renovaion alernaives Increasing hermal losses 5

6 Conens 1. Inroducion 2. The energy sysem porfolio framework 3. The benefi of he sochasic approach o planning heaing sysems and building renovaion 4. The cos of sricer emissions arges 5. Conclusion

7 The energy sysem as an invesmen porfolio Porfolio objecives Coss Emissions Risk Invesmen ypes Sources Generaion Efficiency Porfolio

8 Problem formulaion Minimize: Expeced cos-o-go So ha: Invesmen coss Energy carrier consumpion GHG emissions < I max < f max < e max Uncerain echnological, energy price and carbon ax developmen: The resul is an invesmen policy ha ells a each sage depending on how prices and axes develop, how far he DHS should exend, which echnologies should be used and which buildings should be renovaed so ha GHG emissions arges are me.

9 Conens 1. Inroducion 2. The energy sysem porfolio framework 3. The benefi of he sochasic approach o planning heaing sysems and building renovaion 4. The cos of sricer emissions arges 5. Conclusion

10 Benefis of he sochasic approach How do decisions aken oday affec oal fuure coss? Evaluaion based on hisorical prices: sar year Relaive price wih respec o Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Oil price Time Elecriciy price Performace measure: acual cos in 2 nd year (2006. The Swiss Federal Office of Energy 4 main scenarios. Relaive price wih respec o Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario Time

11 Toal building area [m 2 ] Example: Scenario 1 - Technology use x 10 7 Heaing echnology use Time [year] As prices rise buildings are gradually renovaed. Group 1 only o 3 rd lowes sandard Oil boiler Gas boiler Pelle sove Gas mchp Wood mchp Hea pump A2A Hea pump g DHS old DHS WI1 DHS WI2 DHS WI3 DHS WI4 DHS G1 DHS G2 DHS G3 Toal building area [m 2 ] x 10 7 Oil and gas are slowly replaced by wood. Lile dynamics before 2015 relaively sable prices. The sae of building insulaion 1 No rerofi Rerofi Rerofi 2 Rerofi

12 Example: Scenario 1 - Difference beween age groups Toal building area [m 2 ] x 10 5 Heaing echnology use: Group Time [year] Oil boiler Gas boiler Pelle sove Gas mchp Wood mchp Hea pump A2A Hea pump g DHS old DHS WI1 DHS WI2 DHS WI3 DHS WI4 DHS G1 DHS G2 DHS G3 Newer buildings have lower consumpion densiy => disric heaing less feasible.

13 Example: Scenario 1 - Difference beween age groups Toal building area [m 2 ] x 10 6 Heaing echnology use: Group - before Time [year] Oil boiler Gas boiler Pelle sove Gas mchp Wood mchp Hea pump A2A Hea pump g DHS old DHS WI1 DHS WI2 DHS WI3 DHS WI4 DHS G1 DHS G2 DHS G3 Disric heaing more aracive wih older buildings in he cener.

14 Sraegy performance The sraegies are compared according o: x x i j 2 x i 2 Porfolio difference [%] Scenarios (1 (2,4 (1,3,4 (1,2,3,4 Acual coss in 2006 (1 0 9,54 9,85 10, (2,4 9,54 0 6,35 6,42 98,23 (1,3,4 9,85 6,35 0 0,19 98,44 (1,2,3,4 10,03 6,42 0, ,4 Their performance is assesed in erms of acual energy coss in he second period A lower budge accenuaes he differences.

15 Conens 1. Inroducion 2. The energy sysem porfolio framework 3. The benefi of he sochasic approach o planning heaing sysems and building renovaion 4. The cos of sricer emissions arges 5. Conclusion

16 The cos of sricer GHG arges How does a sricer emissions arge affec sysem coss? One price scenario for he period The emissions arge for 2035 is fixed a 50%. The emissions arge for 2020 is varied. Emissions as % of CO 2 emissions arges Time [Year] 50

17 The cos of sricer GHG arges Toal sysem coss for he whole period [MSfr.] Toal sysem coss depending on he 2020 arge yearly budge limi: 120 MSfr. yearly budge limi: 200 MSfr. yearly budge limi: 300 MSfr. Renewable sources - up Building renovaion - down Emissions arge for 2020 as percenage of emissions in 1990 Higher energy coss

18 The cos of sricer GHG arges Toal sysem coss for he whole period [MSfr.] Toal sysem coss depending on he 2020 arge yearly budge limi: 120 MSfr. yearly budge limi: 200 MSfr. yearly budge limi: 300 MSfr. Building renovaion rises Fuel prices less weigh Naural replacemen of HS Emissions arge for 2020 as percenage of emissions in 1990

19 Conens 1. Inroducion 2. The energy sysem porfolio framework 3. The benefi of he sochasic approach o planning heaing sysems and building renovaion 4. The cos of sricer emissions arges 5. Conclusion

20 Conclusion 1. The sochasic approach proved o be beneficial: Larger number of scenarios => beer performance 2. Sricer emissions arges do no represen much higher coss: Inially greaer invesmen ino bulding renovaion Reduces long-erm invesmen and running cos 3. In fuure: Include oher infrasrucure Consrucion imes Delimiaion beween differen agens

21 Appendix

22 Problem formulaion porfolio descripion porfolio ransiions porfolio ransiion coss: running coss: emissions: T c F( x + u T e F( x + u T x = T u = φ ( u i ( x, x2,..., x u, u,..., u 1 n ( 1 2 n i 0, ui = = α i + βi ui, ui > 0 α i + β i u i, u i < 0 Transiion rules: A S u p 0

23 Problem formulaion { } T rk e u x F e f u x F u w u x J e w u x g E,max,max,max 1 ( ( (,, (,, ( p φ φ Minimize: Expeced cos-o-go So ha: Invesmen coss < I max Energy consumpion < f max GHG emissions < e max If even ree sufficienly small he problem can be solved as a mixed-ineger linear program. I i I S a u x A A u,,max ( 0 ( p p + Porfolio ransiion rules Boundaries on echnology use, ( ( (,, ( T w u u x F w c w u x g φ + + =

24 Swiss greenhouse gas abaemen cos curve Source: Swiss greenhouse gas abaemen cos curve, McKinsey&Company,

25 Bern Descripion and alernaives The buildings are divided ino 4 age groups: Buil before 1947: 41% Buil beween : 42% Buil beween : 15% Buil afer 2000: 2% Heaing sysems used Oil boilers: 44% Gas boilers: 35% Wase incineraion: 11% Technology alernaives Oil, gas or pelle boiler Disric heaing: gas or wase Hea pumps Buildings hea consumpion: four sandards per age group ( MJ/m 2.