Long-Term Evolution of Building Energy Demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework

Transcription

1 Long-Term Evoluion of Building Energy Demand for India: Disaggregaing end use energy services in an inegraed assessmen modeling framework Vaibhav Chaurvedi, Jiyong Eom and Leon E. Clarke JGCRI, USA Priyadarshi R. Shukla IIM Ahmedabad, India

2 Some recen effors using GCAM- IIM version! Shukla PR and Chaurvedi V Susainable energy ransformaions in India under climae policy. Susainable Developmen, DOI: 1.12/sd.516! Shukla PR and Chaurvedi V. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: A argeed approach. Under review! Chaurvedi V, Eom J, Clarke LE and Shukla PR. Modeling long erm building energy demand for India. 2

3 Background! High economic growh expeced for India, more han 8-9% in he near fuure (Assumpions based on GoI documens)! Populaion more han 1.2 Bn! Rapid urbanizaion! Managing energy demand and ensuring adequae and reliable energy supply imporan challenges for Indian policy 3

4 Modeling Building Energy Use: Moving from Supply o Demand

5 Building energy consumpion in India Final energy consumpion Building More han 45% of oal final energy in India consumed in he building secor in EJ Transporaion High reliance on radiional biomass 4 Indusry Significan difference in rural and urban energy consumpion profiles 5

6 India Buildings Energy Consumpion (25) Energy Consump.on on 25 (EJ) Source: IEA (27) Kerosene Gas Coal Elecriciy LPG TradBiomass Urban Rural Commercial LighHng 9.6% Applian ce 1.5% Cooling 2.5% HeaHng.1% Lighing 4.2% Applianc e 1.8% Cooling.1% Heaing.% LighHng 7.2% Applian ce 13.8% Cooling 2.9% HeaHng.3% Cooking 77.2% Cooking 93.9% Cooking 75.9%

7 The Deailed Model for Building Energy Use in India Model framework based on Eom e al. (211) Has been applied earlier o model China building energy demand Socioeconomic Assumpion Urbanizaion Floorspace Expansion Energy Service Demands End-Use Technologies Delivered Fuels India Populaion GDP Urban populaion GDP Rural populaion GDP Urban Building Floorspace Rural Building Floorspace Heaing Cooling Cooking Lighing Appliance Heaing Cooling Cooking Lighing Appliance AC Air Cooler Heaer Cooker Incandescen Fluorescen Solidsae Lamp Appliances Equipmen Coal Gas Oil Elecriciy Biomass Trad. biomass Commercial Building Floorspace Heaing Cooling Cooking Lighing Equipmen

8 The approach o Floor Space Expansion Floor space price [$ / m 2 ] Demand Demand increases wih income = k D P ε D I ε I Supply ε S, ε S, 1 = k P P S 1 Parameers esimaed based on Naional Sample Survey Organizaion (NSSO) daa Floor space per capia [m 2 per capia]

9 Drivers of energy consumpion Populaion Per capia income 12 7 Millions Rural Urban 25 Thousand USD Rural Urban Naional Average 6 5 Per capia floorspace Increasing populaion in urban areas o drive floor space and energy service demands m2/capia Rural Urban Per capia income gap assumed o converge by

10 Demand for Building Services

11 Demand for Space Heaing Service [GJ-oupu/m 2 ] : ( ) = H H H H H P Y InernalGain SurfaceRaio ShellEff HDD k Q,, ln2 exp 1 α λ Demand for Space Cooling Service [GJ-oupu/m 2 ] Demand for Oher Services (waer heaing & cooking, lighing, oher appliances): = i i P Y k Q α ln2 exp 1 ( ) + = C C C C C P Y InernalGain SurfaceRaio ShellEff CDD k Q,, ln2 exp 1 α λ Space Heaing Requiremen (saiaed demand) Economic Behavior Modeling he Change in Service Demands Space Cooling Requiremen (saiaed demand) Economic Behavior

12 End Use Technologies Service Technology Fuel Space Cooling Space HeaHng Cooking and Waer HeaHng LighHng Air condihoner Air cooler Room heaer Building heaer Gas cooker Gas cooker Elecric cooker Coal cooker Biomass cooker TradiHonal biomass cooker Kerosene sove Incandescen bulbs Fluorescen bulbs Solid sae lighhng Oil Lamp Elecric Elecric Elecric Elecric Liquefied Peroleum Gas Naural Gas Elecric Coal Commercial biomass TradiHonal biomass Kerosene Elecric Elecric Elecric Kerosene 12 Appliances Generic appliance echnology Elecric

13 The Long-Term Evoluion of India s Building Energy Use

14 Floor Space Expansion Residenial Commercial 8 US Canada ResidenHal Floorspace per capia [m2] Denmark Norway Canada NZ UK Japan Neherlands China urban Commercial Floorspace per capia [m2] Denmark Norway NZ UK Japan US China GDP per capia [hous. 2 USD a PPP] China rural India urban projeced (25 and onwards) India rural projeced (25 and onwards) GDP per capia [hous. 2 USD a PPP] India projeced (25 and onwards) 14

15 Final energy consumpion by service: Rural-Urban Ø Rapid expansion of cooling and appliances: resuls include changing degree day effec Ø Significan share of cooking also in he fuure Rural Urban EJ 8 EJ Cooking Appliance Cooling LighHng HeaHng Cooking Appliance Cooling LighHng HeaHng

16 Space cooling echnologies Avg no. of unis per HH Urban-AC Urban- Cooler Rural-AC Rural-Cooler q Low peneraion of space cooling echnologies in he base year q High increase in AC ownership in he urban households beween 22 and q For rural households, his increase comes afer 25 16

17 Final energy consumpion by fuel: Rural-Urban Ø Dominance of elecriciy for cooling, heaing, appliances, and lighing Ø Gas, predominanly LPG, for cooking, akes a significan share Ø Rapid phase ou of radiional biomass 16 Final energy by fuel- Rural Kerosene Final energy by fuel- Urban 12 Gas Coal EJ 8 LPG 4 Elecriciy Biomass TradBiomass

18 Elecriciy and LPG Ø Significan difference in urban and rural households consumpion of elecriciy and LPG in 25 Ø Rapid increase in per capia elecriciy consumpion, moving owards developed counry levels Ø Decreasing gap: Especially LPG increase significan in rural areas Elecriciy (GJ/capia) LPG (GJ/capia) Rural 8 Rural Urban 4 Urban

19 Aggregae final energy by service 4 Final Energy by service India-US Comparison EJ HeaHng LighHng Cooling India- 25 India Appliance Cooking US % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% o Commercial secor akes 48% share in buildings final energy consumpion by cenury-end, similar o developed counries o Cooling, appliances, and lighing increase rapidly o Share of energy services similar o curren profile of developed counries (Noe: US heaing and cooling have been adjused by degree days for comparaive purpose) 19

20 Impac of Climae Policy EJ Final Energy- BAU Final Energy- Climae Policy 4 35 Kerosene 3 Gas 25 Coal 2 LPG 15 Elecriciy 1 Biomass 5 TradBiomass EJ 4 35 Kerosene 3 Gas 25 Coal 2 LPG 15 Elecriciy 1 Biomass 5 TradBiomass EJ Final Energy- Aggregae BAU Climae Policy Low effec of carbon ax as limied subsiuion possibiliies Toal final energy for India decreases by 15% in 295, Almos 8% decrease in final energy in building secor under a climae policy Alernaive energy reducion policies imporan for Indian building secor

21 To Conclude Rapid increase in floor space, especially in urban areas Services: High growh in cooling and appliance services Fuels: Dominance of elecriciy and gas Phase ou of radiional biomass Indian building energy evolves owards developed counries paern Limied impac of an emission miigaion policy, alernaive energy reducion policies hold imporance 21

22 22 THANK YOU!