1. OVERALL SITUATION. as tight as it has been, at least for the remaining three mon. A considerable portion of the. ths.

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1 ths. (\, 1. OVERALL SITUATION According to the results of these assessments, the food secucity situation would continue to be as tight as it has been, at least for the remaining three mon Early Warning Department Disaster Prevention ar1ld Preparedness COInmiS~iion (DPPC) P.O.Box: 5686, Tel: , Fax: 251 ' et Addlis Ababa, Ethiopia A considerable portion of the

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3 2. TIGRA Y REGION The December 1998 estimate of the number of beneficiaries in 1999 was 73,275 with some 252,178 people in different zones of the region considered as needing close monitoring. Since then, the Belg failure has increased the beneficiary number to 834,477 following the Belg assessment in May As the food situation became serious the region recently requested those who were under close monitoring to be considered for immediate assistance in light of their worsening food security situation. Following this a joint team composed of DPPC, EU and WFP representatives was dispatched to Central, Eastern and Southern Zones of Tigray to verify the food situation. The assessment revealed that the food situation in these areas hns deteriorated significantly. Signs of severe food shortages such as acute level of malnutrition on children and elderly, consumption of famine foods, reduction of daily food intake, high supply of livestock for sale, unusual migration of people and low lc~vel of school attendance by students have clearly been observed Two major reasons account for the curr(~nt sharp declines in the food situation of the region. One of them is late planting of this year's Meher crop due to the late onset of the Kiremt rain and failure of the Belg. As a result, little or no production of green maize, haricot bean and barley, which used to augment the food supply during August to October is available and! or expected. In typical years, farmers begin to get their first harvest at this time of the year. Unfortunately this has not been the case this year. The other major factor is the over estimation of the 1998 crop production during the last pre and post harvest assessmentsṫhis has led to an underestimation of the beneficiary number. The finding has confiffiled that the current monthly food delivery would not adequately contain the crises, and hence, the need for additional and urgent food for those who were under close

4 » monitoring. According to the assessment, the adclitional number of people needing assistance is about 163,952 putting the total number of beneficiaries and food requirement during the last quarter of the year at about 998,429 and 37,287 MT, respectively. The breakdown of the number of the needy and the amount of relief required by month and zone is ShOWl1 in the attached table 3. AMHARA REGION Relief food distributions have been underway in the Region starting from January This assistance has to a large extent contained the food problem in most parts of the Region. In spite of the delivery of a considerable amount of food, however, in parts of North Wello, North Gonder and South Gonder the needs have continued to rise. The recent joint DPPC and donors disaster area assessment has indicated tj.1at in some woredas of the three zones the food situation is still very worrying. In the three zones, the needy population! and food requirement have increased considerably from what was indicated in July The main reasons for these increments are: );> Failure of long cycle crops (maize and sorghum) in most parts of the three zones due to the failure of the April and May 1999 rains. As a result, little or no production of green maize and sorghum is currentl), available and! or expected. These crops are nonnally available for consumption in September and October. Total failure of potato, which is nomlally, produced in most highlands of North and South Gonder due to again the failure of the Belg. This crop is usually used as a main source of food during the hun~r season in the two zones. Its role in the food security of these zones was, however, overlooked during the previous assessments.

5 r--: Death and weakening of domestic animals due to the prolonged dry spell. Most households sale livestock to buy food crops to cope with food shortages during the lean season. This year, however, a large number of livestock have died. Furthermore, the physical condition of those whic:h have survived was reported to be poor, and this has led to poor market demand as well as sharp declines in their prices. >'> Overestimation of the 1998 production has also contributed to the underestimation of relief needs in the Region. In general, the failure of long cycle (:rops as well as potato together with the depletion of household assets were the causes for the current severe condition in the three zones. The most severely affected areas are the low-land (kola) areas of Habru, Kobo and Delanta Dawunt Woredas of North Wello; the highland areas of Laygaint, Tachgaint, Simada, Ebnat, Farta and Estie woredas of South Gonder, and A.diarkay, Beyeda, Janamora, Debark and Gonder- Zuria Woredas of North Gonder Zones. Although limited to new areas, signs of :severe food shortage, such as migration of people, sale of construction materials and acute level malnutrition were reported from some areas of the three zones. The relief food currently allocated to the three zones has been found to be inadequate to cover the additional needs recently identified. The number of beneficiaries has already increased by 18% over the July estimate. Accordingly, the DPPC has as of September, 1999 already increased the monthly deliver of food to these zones. The total needy population in the region now stands at 2,763,583.The amount of relief food required from October to December is estimated at 19,958 MT. In addition to this, emergency supplementary food for malnourished children should have to be considered at the earliest time possible. lthe breakdown of the number

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12 ~otal TotalFood IZone-One ~I Iopulation arari Affected Ponulation and Food Requirement from O~tober-December 19~ No October NOvember Region Zone P, Food I Population Food 4 Somali MT MIT, Jijjga Degehabour Warder Gode Kebridehur Fik Shinile Liben Afder Harari ~omali Total , 133 I Harar :-, 21 Total Afar Zone- Two Zone-Three Zone-Four " Zone-Five Displaced December 7 SNNPR North Hadiya KAT Omo Konso Derashe Burji Amaro Gurage South Omo SNNPR Total ~bt> Dire Dawa Dire Dawa I Addis Ababa DisplacedI , ~~~ ~, --" ~,~-,~ "-. -~ l ' I u43~1 Total Population Food Food MT MT i = 41 - u u 439 u