PRESENTATION OF PROPOSED MONITORING STRATEGY FOR NIGERIA

Transcription

1 PRESENTATION OF PROPOSED MONITORING STRATEGY FOR NIGERIA BY DR ANTHONIA I ACHIKE TEAM LEADER, CBMS NIGERIA FEBRUARY, 2009.

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Revision of Key Points in Proposal Transmission Channels of Global Financial Crises in Nigeria Potential Indicators to be added for Monitoring Global Financial Crises in Nigeria Justification of Site Selected for CBMS Nigeria Survey Period and Frequency of Visits Proposed Monitoring Strategy For CBMS Nigeria.

3 KEY POINTS IN PROPOSAL Prevalence of poverty among households and Communities in Nigeria Earlier studies not grass root oriented, not replicable and cannot tract poverty on sustainable basis CBMS Nigeria aimed at involving community members in periodic assessment of their poverty situations tracking poverty. CBMS Nigeria to provide policy makers with basic data for planning and governance

4 PRE VIEW CONTD Study to be carried out in Edem a typical Nigeria community in two phases Phase 1: Cross sectional household poverty assessment of all the households in the community (5000 households estimated) Phase 2: Cost route monitoring of 4000 households at six monthly interval to tract poverty and impact of global financial crises at both community and household level. Also, dissemination of findings to stakeholders and governments who must have bought into the project

5 TRANSMISSION CHANNELS OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES IN NIGERIA Reduced oil prices and consequent fiscal contraction Freezing Employment Fall in Remittances (both internal and external) Reduced Exports Reduction in FDI Exchange rate issues (Naira officially devaluated)

6 TRANSMISSION CHANNELS CONTD. Reduced tax revenues Dramatic fall in Stock market prices Reduced Foreign Aid Migration

7 POTENTIAL INDICATORS FOR MONITORING FINANCIAL CRISES Health Food and Nutrition Education Shelter Credit Gender Domestic Violence Access to Poverty alleviation (Safety net) Packages

8 POTENTIAL INDICATIORS CONTD Homeless people Maternal mortality Infant mortality

9 MONITORING STRATEGIES FOR CBMS NIGERIA Justification of Selected study Site Proposed study period Frequency of study visits

10 JUSTIFICATION OFSTUDY SITE EDEM Edem Community exhibits all the characteristics of the typical LGA in Nigeria It has the features of a semi urban and rural environment It has high levels of deprivation and poverty status characteristic of most Nigeria rural villages The impact of global financial crises can easily be observed in Edem since many of its citizens live in different urban centres in Nigeria, including Abuja, Lagos, Onitsha and even in foreign countries. T here is wide spread use of mobile handset that allows continuous flow of information between those living in and outside Edem. Thus, every development is relayed back home. This leads to fast adjustment in economic behaviour by those living in the community. Economic downturns at both national and international levels filter to the community with ease and this leads to adjustments in expectations.

11 JUSTIFICATION CONTD. Another channel of transmission of global crises to the study site is through the construction industry (real estate development). In Nigeria, unlike in most other developed and developing countries, individuals build houses for themselves. This is typically so among Edem people living abroad and in the cities. Global economic crises is likely to lead to slow down in building of houses in communities like Edem. Thus an indicator of impact of global financial crises could be reflected in the number of on going buildings that have stagnated in the last one year or so.

12 PROPOSED STUDY PERIOD The study is proposed to start in April This is because April May is the beginning of planting period in Eastern Nigeria where Edem community is located. Thus, it is expected that Edem community will have a preponderance of her citizens around for reasons of planting, reverse migration as a result of financial crises (loss of jobs, Christmas holiday makers who could not go back etc)

13 FREQUENCY OF STUDY VISITS There will be two or three visits at six monthly intervals This will give enough room to see the impact of global financial crises and movements in and out of poverty. Hence poverty will be monitored and tracked

14 IMPACT MEASUREMENT The poverty impact: between the initial survey period and subsequent survey, household expenditure may have increased, decreased or stagnated, taking inflation into consideration (Measures of household consumption are included in our original questionnaire draft) Impact on labor market: differences in unemployment rates between first and second surveys (taking into account, the growth in population) Computation of losses due to fall in share prices in the stock market (for those who have invested in stock market Calculation of Infant and Under 5 mortalities using the direct method: taking the number of live births and deaths of Infants and Under 5 children at the first and second surveys. The difference in rate will indicate the severity of this impact on the society. The questions will then include the birth dates of children born to a family in the last 1 and 5 years respectively, and how many of them are still alive or died.

15 IMPACT MEASURE CONTD. Nutritional status: Children anthropometric scores reflect the macro economic conditions of the country they live in. To measure this, we will collect data on Children's age, height and weight. This will enable us construct data on weight for height, height for age, and weight for age. These measures are then compared with the child's weight and height against the weight and height of children from a reference healthy population to obtain what is known as the Z score. Z score for any given child 'i' is given as (Hi Hr)/(SD of the reference population) where Hi is the height of the child; Hr is the median height of the reference population, and SD is the standard deviation of height of the same reference population. WHO recommends the reference population to be the US National Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) population (WHO 1986)

16 IMPACT MEASUREMENT CONTD. The following anthropometric measure are generally used: (a) Stunting: height for age that is less than the international reference value by more than 2 standard deviations (b) Wasting: Weight for height less than the international reference value by more than 2 standard deviations; (c)underweight: Weight for age that is more than two standard deviations below the international reference value. Note: stunting is regarded as an indicator of long standing dietary inadequacy. WHO, 1986 recommends stunting as a reliable measure overall social deprivation Height for age (stunting) is less sensitive to temporary food shortages and is therefore used as a reliable measure of long standing malnutrition Weight for height (wasting) reflects acute malnutrition in a child. Its measurement does not require accurate knowledge of the child's age which is an advantage in case one does not obtain accurate age of the child. It is also useful in evaluating the impact of nutritional intervention programs since it is sensitive to short term changes in diet (unlike stunting) Low weight for height is usually more difficult to interpret as it does not discriminate between temporary and permanent malnutrition but sometimes it is interpreted in the same way as stunting. Stunting and Wasting are thus the most popularly used measure to reflect longstanding and short run nutritional inadequacies.

17 THE END Thanks for listening