Competitive Balance in Inter-County Hurling and Football

Transcription

1 Competitive Balance in InterCounty Hurling and Football John Considine Department of Economics University College Cork Keywords: JEL Classification: Sports Economics; Competitive Balance, L8 Correspondence: Address: Department of Economics, University College Cork, Ireland. Telephone: Fax:

2 I. Introduction A theme in the economics of sport literature is the extent to which there is outcome uncertainty, or competitive balance, in a particular competition. The more evenly balanced the competition then the more uncertain the outcome. A comprehensive review of the concept of competitive balance, and the efforts of governing bodies to enhance and constrain competition, is provided in Sanderson (00). The empirical literature tends to focus on the competitive balance in individual sports, e.g. association football (see Hart, Hutton and Sharrot, 975; Jennett, 984; Peel and Thomas, 988; Bainbridge, Cameron and Dawson, 996; Kuypers, 996; and Szymanski and Kuypers, 000), baseball (see Scully, 989; Knowles, Sherony and Haupert, 99; Krautmann and Hadley, 006; and Lee, 009), basketball (see Noll, 988) and ice hockey (see Jones and Ferguson, 988). The assessment of competitive balance is usually a precursor to examining the hypothesis that the more competitively balanced a match or competition then the larger the attendances. The evidence is far from conclusive on the relationship between the competitive balance and attendances and competitive balance (see Knowles et al, 99; Kuypers, 996; Whitney, 998; and Szymanski and Kuypers, 000). Some recent evidence suggests the relationship between demand and competitive balance might be stronger when TV audience is used as the relevant demand variable (see Forrest, Simmons and Buraimo, 005; and Tainsky, 00). The aim of this paper is to assess the competitive balance in intercounty hurling and football in Ireland for the period Measures of competitive balance are presented for senior games, under games and under8 (minor) games in both hurling and football. Calculations are based on data provided in Donegan, O Ceallaigh and O Maolmhichil (005). The next section presents the organisation of gaelic games in Ireland. Section III examines the methodological issues involved in establishing a measure of competitive balance in gaelic games. Sections IV and V presents measures of competitive balance for intercounty hurling and football, respectively. Section V presents a preliminary investigation of the possible consequences and sources of this competitive balance.

3 II. Gaelic Games Three issues need to be considered in assessing the competitive balance in intercounty hurling and football. First, the primary competitions in these games are knockout tournaments, or cup, competitions as distinct from league competitions. Second, the national cup competitions (AllIreland) were not traditionally opendraw but contained a geographical grouping of teams into four provinces that produced semifinal teams. While this has change since 00 the level at which teams enter is still determined by provincial championships. Third, the teams are selected on a politicogeographic representative basis. While there are exceptions, players living and playing in county X play for county X. An analogy can be drawn with the manner in which the FIFA World Cup in organised it is knockout for the concluding four rounds and it is competed for by teams representing countries. The fact that the primary competition is a cup competition has a number of implications for measuring competitive balance. One implication is that there is less literature on competitive balance in nonleague type competitions. A second, and related, implication is that there are a reduced number of games for analysis. For example, a league with eight teams playing each other once produces 8 games where as a cup competition between the same eight teams produces only 7 games (not counting replays). In gaelic games the national cup competition is called the AllIreland. In football, for the period 95000, only provincial winners could compete for the AllIreland football title the four provincial winners made up the semifinalists. From 00 the provincial football champions were separated from the AllIreland series, i.e. a county competed in both the AllIreland series and their provincial championship. While both continued to be cup competitions, progression in the provincial championship determined the entry point in the AllIreland series with provincial winner entering at the quarterfinal stage. Some of the earliest competitions were opendraw. In addition, provincial championships have been seeded draws for much of the period. These seeded draws militated against competitive balance. The GAA has successful used and fostered as sense of local identity in a way that other Celtic organisations have done with soccer in Glasgow and basketball in Boston (Cronin and Mayall, 998).

4 Hurling was slightly more complicated because only in Munster and Leinster were provincial championships organised for the full period. In 997 the teams competing for the AllIreland was extended to include beaten provincial finalists from Munster and Leinster. The provincial final losers in Munster and Leinster competed with the provincial winners in Leinster, Munster and Ulster plus Galway for the AllIreland title. Later the hurling competition followed the structure of the football competitions and all teams were allowed to compete for both provincial and AllIreland competitions. Despite the changes the cup nature of the competition remained the same (at least from the quarterfinal stage). Teams now competed in both the provincial and AllIreland competitions. The fact that the teams are selected on a politicogeographic representative basis has three important implications. First, it means that competitive imbalance is likely to persist where it depends on some natural resource or tradition as there is no mechanism of transferring players except through a change in residency. 4 A second, and related implication, is that the number of competing teams is fixed (at least there is an upper limit) with no promotion or relegation. 5 Third, it means that the relationship between competitive balance and attendances may be complicated by the demographic characteristics of the competing counties. For example, the measure of competitive balance may remain unchanged but there may be a change in the competitiveness of individual counties. As counties with larger populations become more competitive it is expected that attendances might increase. For a number of years in the noughties the teams beaten in the early rounds of the provincial championships competed in a roundrobin league system where the top two teams from two groups qualified for the AllIreland quarter final along with provincial finalists. 4 The last Dublin team to win the hurling AllIreland had over 50% of its players originally from outside Dublin but moving to Dublin to gain work. In his book Raising the Banner, Ger Loughnane suggests that competitive balance has improved with players moving between counties for third level education. 5 When one also considers that gaelic games are limited to Ireland, with the exception of a small number of expatriot communities primarily in the USA, one can see that the organisation of more closely resembles the USA closed model of sport than the European football model. 4

5 III. Measuring Competitive Balance In the literature there are three types of competitive balance (or outcome uncertainty) usually examined: match outcome uncertainty, seasonal outcome uncertainty and the absence of longrun domination. Match outcome uncertainty is concerned purely with the probability distribution of the potential outcomes of one game. It is usually measured by betting odds on the outcomes. Seasonal outcome uncertainty is concerned with the probability distribution of the potential outcomes from one season. It can be calculated at various stages during the season provided the seasonal outcome is still uncertain. Longrun domination is usually measured by the number or percentage of titles actually won over the previous decades. All three measures calculate competitive balance as a deviation from some ideal balance level. All three measures are encountered in the literature on various sports. The competitive balance of English, Scottish and some European football leagues are examined in Hart, Hutton and Sharrot (975), Jennett (984), Peel and Thomas (988), Bainbridge, Cameron and Dawson (996), Kuypers (996) and Szymanski and Kuypers (000). Szymanski and Kuypers (000) provide measures of longrun domination in major European Football leagues. They also provide a summary table of some of the measures used in the literature on football (Szymanski and Kuypers, 000:56). This table is reproduced as Table A in the Appendix. Textbook type accounts of competitive balance in North American sports are provided in Quirk and Fort (997) and Leeds and von Allmen (00). Competitive balance measures for specific sports are provided in Scully (989) and Knowles, Sherony and Haupert (99) [baseball], Noll (988) [basketball] and by Jones and Ferguson (988) [ice hockey]. The type of competitive balance in intercounty games used in this paper is that of longrun domination. Longrun domination is usually measured using a Lorenz curve or cumulative distribution (Quirk and Fort, 99; Szymanski and Kuypers, 000). For example, suppose there were ten teams in a competition then perfect competitive balance would exist where each one of the ten teams won one title, i.e. 0% of the teams won 0% of the titles. This outcome is represented by the diagonal line in Figure. By contrast if one team won 4 titles, a second team won three titles, a third 5

6 team won titles, and a fourth team won one title then we would have less competitive balance a situation represented by the second curve in Figure below. Lorenz curves are presented for the AllIreland senior, U and Minor championships in both hurling and football, respectively (see Figures and 7). The Lorenz curve is a graphical representation of competitive balance. This graphical representation can be translated into a number by approximating the difference between the actual distribution of titles and the ideal distribution, e.g. a Gini Coefficient. The numerical measure has the advantage that it allows comparisons between two or more distributions for the same period and it also allows comparisons of the change in distribution for different periods of time. Figure : Lorenz Curve for Competitive Balance Lorenz Curve for Perfect Competitive Balance and an Imperfect Balance Balance Imbalance While the Lorenz curve graphical representation is used in this paper, in Figure and Figure 7, the associated numerical measure is not used. The primary reason for not using the Lorenz curve measure has to do with the variations in the number of teams competing for the various championships. Comparisons would be most difficult in hurling where the number of teams competing for Leinster has varied most over time including Galway for some of the period. 6

7 An alternative numerical measure of competitive balance is calculated in this paper. In this paper, competitive balance is measured as the sum of the squared number of titles won by each county over a tenyear period. The measure takes on values between 0 and 00 with 00 being the complete dominance by one county. A value of 00 results from a situation where one team wins all ten titles and is calculated as follows: 00 [= (0*0) + (0*0) + + (0*0)]. The lowest value possible under this measure is 0 [= (*) + (*) + + (*)]. However, this value of 0 could not be achieved in competitions where there are less than ten teams competing, e.g. Ulster, Munster and Connaught. The lowest for Ulster is because it has only 9 teams competing. A tenyear measure means that one team has to win at least two titles with the other eight winning one title each. The lowest value for Munster is 8 and the lowest value for Connaught is 0. Larger values are associated with less competition and more domination. All possible combinations of values of 0 or greater are listed in Table below. All other possible distributions of 0 titles will give a value of less than 0. A value of 5 or greater signifies that one team has won at least 7 of the previous 0 titles on offer. Values between and 5 indicate that two teams have won 7 titles between them. Values of 5 or below indicate that no team has won more than 4 titles. For each championship the measure of competitive balance is calculated for a rolling pattern of ten years, e.g , 9560, 956,, The values are then presented in a graph that allows an identification of the changing competitiveness of the competition in question. What follows are the competitive balance measures for hurling and football. The measures are calculated for AllIreland and provincial competitions. They are calculated for Senior, Under and Minor competitions. 7

8 Table : All Potential Values of Competitive Balance Between 0 and 00 and Their Composition 00 = (0*0) + (0*0) + + (0*0) 8 = (9*9) + (*) + (0*0) + + (0*0) 68 = (8*8) + (*) + (0*0) + + (0*0) 66 = (8*8) + (*) + (*) + (0*0) + + (0*0) 58 = (7*7) + (*) + (0*0) + + (0*0) 54 = (7*7) + (*) + (*) + (0*0) + + (0*0) 5 = (7*7) + (*) + (*) + (*) + + (0*0) 50 = (6*6) + (4*4) + (0*0) + (0*0) + + (0*0) 50 = (5*5) + (5*5) + (0*0) + (0*0) + + (0*0) = (6*6) + (*) + (*) + (0*0) + + (0*0) = (6*6) + (*) + (*) + (0*0) + + (0*0) = (5*5) + (4*4) + (*) + (0*0) + + (0*0) = (6*6) + (*) + (*) + (*) + + (0*0) = (6*6) + (*) + (*) + (*) + (*) + + (0*0) = (5*5) + (*) + (*) + (0*0) + (0*0) + + (0*0) = (4*4) + (4*4) + (*) + (0*0) + (0*0) + + (0*0) = (5*5) + (*) + (*) + (*) + (0*0) + + (0*0) = (4*4) + (*) + (*) + (0*0) + (0*0) + + (0*0) = (5*5) + (*) + (*) + (*) + (*) + + (0*0) = (5*5) + (*) + (*) + (*) + (*) + (*) + + (0*0) = (4*4) + (*) + (*) + (*) + (0*0) + + (0*0) IV. Competitive Balance in Hurling There were 9 different winners of both the 58 senior and minor titles won between 950 and 007. The Under hurling championship began in 964 and the 4 titles are spread among 7 counties. These facts are captured in Table and the Lorenz curves in Figure below. Over 70% of the titles on offer were won by Kilkenny, Cork and Tipperary with the lowest return of 69% for these three counties occurring in the minor grade. Galway and Limerick seem to have difficulty translating their underage success into the senior rank. 8

9 Table : Distribution of AllIreland Senior, Minor and Under Hurling Titles by County Senior Under Minor (Under8) Kilkenny Cork Tipperary Wexford Offaly Galway Clare Limerick Waterford Dublin Figure : Lorenz Curves of Competitive Balance AllIreland Senior, U and Minor Hurling, Senior U U Figure provides a ten year rolling measure of competitive balance for the AllIreland competitions. It shows competitive balance in the senior hurling championship is currently poor relative to the last two decades. Between 998 and 007, Kilkenny have won 5 titles, Cork won titles and both Offaly and Tipperary have one title each. The only other tenyear period when competitive balance was as poor was 9748 when the distribution of titles was almost identical except for Galway replacing Tipperary with one title. The most competitive years are during the 990s these were what Denis Walsh called the Revolution Years in his book of the same title. 6 6 Denis Walsh Hurling : The Revolution Years. Dublin: Penguin Press. 9

10 Figure : Ten Year Rolling Measure of Competitive Balance in AllIreland Senior, U and Minor Hurling, Senior Competitive balance was greatest at under level (i.e. lowest point for under in Figure ) in the decade 9900 when Cork, Galway, Kilkenny and Limerick all had two titles while Tipperary and Waterford had one each. It was poorest in the decade when Cork won 6 titles, Kilkenny won titles, and Galway won AllIreland. U U8 Minor level was least competitive with Tipperary s dominance in the 950s with 6 titles and with the dominance of Cork and Kilkenny in the 970s. The grade was most competitive for the decade with Cork, Kilkenny, Offaly and Tipperary wining two AllIrelands each with Limerick and Galway winning one each. Munster The distribution of Munster Senior, U and minor titles for the period is presented in Table. Cork and Tipperary won over 80% of the titles during this period. These two counties won 87% of the minor titles, 8% of the U titles and 7% of the Senior titles. 0

11 Table : Distribution of Munster Hurling Titles by County, Senior and Minor , and Under Senior Under Under8 Cork Tipperary Limerick Waterford Clare Figure 4 presents the changing competitive balance in the province as measured by a ten year rolling competitive balance measure. Not surprisingly, the periods of least competitive balance are those where Cork and/or Tipperary dominated. At minor level Tipperary won 0 titles in eleven years in the 950s and early 960s, and Cork won 9 out of ten in the decade between 966 and 975. At U level Cork won 8 titles in the ten years up to and including 977. A similar outcome occurred at senior level during the mid 970s to mid 980s with only Limerick interrupting Cork s dominance. Figure 4: Ten Year Rolling Measure of Competition Balance in Senior, U and Minor Munster Hurling Championships Senior The most competitive period for all three competitions has been since 990. Where as Cork and Tipperary shared the senior titles up to 99, the arrival of Limerick, Clare and eventually Waterford produced the best measure of competitive balance for the period During this decade, Clare won titles in 995, 997 and 998; Cork won titles in 999 and 000; Limerick won titles in 994 and 996; Tipperary won U Minor

12 titles in 99 and 00; and, Waterford won the 00 title. Cork and Tipperary have started to dominate the minor ranks in the period to 007. Leinster The distribution of Leinster hurling championships is presented in Table 4. Kilkenny has dominated all three grades. Wexford s total of 5 titles is second largest and was accumulated across the full period. By contrast, Offaly achieved all of its titles since 978 when it won the u title. The recent revival in Dublin hurling has added minor titles and u title in three years but it is 96 since it won a senior title. The last title won by Laois was in 967. Table 4: Distribution of Leinster Hurling Titles by County, Senior and Minor , and Under Senior Under Under8 Kilkenny Wexford Offaly Dublin Laois Figure 5 presents the changing competitive balance in Leinster hurling. It presents an extremely uncompetitive minor championship with Kilkenny winning all 0 titles in the 990s and 9 out of 0 titles in the 970s. It was only when Wexford were winning titles in the 960s and Offaly in the 980s was the championship competitive. While Dublin and Offaly have won three minor titles between them since 000, one has to go back to 985 since Wexford won a provincial title For the period since 950, the Leinster senior championship has never been as uncompetitive as it currently stands with Kilkenny winning 9 of the last 0 titles. Such an outcome is not surprising given the county s recent dominance of the minor grade.

13 Figure 5: Ten Year Rolling Measure of Competitive Balance in Leinster Senior, U and Minor Hurling Championships Senior U Minor A comparison of the competitive balance in Munster and Leinster senior hurling championship is presented in Figure 6. It shows that except for brief periods in the late 960s and 980s the Munster championship was more competitive Figure 6: Ten Year Rolling Measure of Competitive Balance in Munster and Leinster Senior Hurling Championships Munster Leinster

14 V. Competitive Balance in Football Table 5 presents the distribution of AllIreland titles since 950. The senior titles have been spread between 4 counties, the u between 6 counties and the minor between 4 counties. This is captured in the Lorenz curves in Figure 7. Kerry have won more that three times the number of senior AllIreland than any other county with the exception of Dublin. Cork lead the roll of honour at u and minor grades. Table 5: Distribution of AllIreland Senior, Minor and Under Football Titles by County Senior Under Minor Kerry Dublin Galway Meath Down Cork Offaly Mayo Tyrone Cavan Derry Donegal Armagh Louth Roscommon Antrim Kildare Westmeath Laois Roscommon Figure 7: Lorenz Curves of Competitive Balance in AllIreland Senior, U and Minor Football Championships Senior U Minor

15 Figure 8 shows that the AllIreland football championships have been fairly competitive for the full period since 950 with the exception of the Kerry 7 senior titles in 9 years between 978 and 986 and Cork s 6 u titles in the 980s. Figure 8: Ten Year Rolling Measue of Competitive Balance in AllIreland Senior, U and Minor Football Championships Munster Senior U Minor The most uncompetitive football championships are Munster football championships. Table 6 shows that Kerry and Cork have won over 95% of the titles on offer. 7 Figure 9 shows that this dominance was a feature of the championships throughout the period. The competitive balance value for senior football drops below 50 only for those years for which Clare s 99 title is included. A value of less than 50 is achieved in the u championship only when Limerick and Waterford win titles in 000 and 00 respectively. The minor grade was competitive in the 950s with Clare, Limerick and Tipperary winning titles but only Tipperary s two titles in 984 and 995 have brought the value below 50 since the mid960s. 7 The Munster U championship was first run in 96. A year later the Ulster competition was run for the first time. It was only in 964 was there a full set of provincial and AllIreland U titles. 5

16 Table 6: Distribution of Munster Football Titles by County, Senior and Minor , and Under Senior U Minor Kerry Cork Clare Limerick Waterford Tipperary Figure 9: Ten Year Rolling Measure of Competitive Balance in Munster Senior, U and Minor Football Championships Leinster Senior The distribution of Leinster football championships for the period is provided in Table 7. While Dublin, Meath and Offaly shared over 84% of the senior titles, the minor and u title were more widely and evenly spread. Of the twelve counties in the province only Kilkenny and Carlow have not won a minor title. Meath, Offaly, Kildare and Meath have won 8 u titles each and Dublin has won 7 titles. U Minor 6

17 Table 7: Distribution of Leinster Football Titles by County, Senior and Minor , and Under Senior U Minor Dublin Meath Offaly Kildare Louth Laois Westmeath Longford Wexford Wicklow Figure 0 presents the tenyear rolling measures of competitive balance. Only the senior championship achieved values of 50 or greater indicating the dominance of Dublin during the period 974 to 984 when they won 7 titles (Offaly winning the other three) and the DublinMeath dominance during the late 980s and early 990s. The u and minor titles were least competitive with Dublin s 7 minor titles in eleven years between 978 and 988 and Meath winning 5 u titles between 989 and Figure 0: Ten Year Measure of Competitive Balance in Leinster Senior, U and Minor Football Senior U Minor

18 Ulster Table 8 demonstrates that Ulster is the most competitive of the provinces for the period since 950. Of the nine counties competing all have won at least u titles, only Fermanagh have failed to win a senior title, and only Monaghan and Fermanagh have failed to win a minor title. Table 8: Distribution of Ulster Football Titles by County, Senior and Minor , and Under Senior U Minor Down Tyrone Armagh Cavan Derry Donegal Monaghan Antrim Fermanagh The competitive nature of the Ulster championships is illustrated in Figure. With the exception of the DownCavan duopoly during the 960s the senior championship was exceptionally competitive since 970 until the recent dominance of Armagh and Tyrone. Except for Tyrone winning 6 minor titles between 97 and 978 the minor and u championship have also been extremely competitive Figure : Ten Year Rolling Measure of Competitive Balance in Ulster Senior, U and Minor Football Championships Senior U Minor

19 Connaught The province of Connaught is the only province where all counties have won at least one senior title and one minor title since 950. Sligo s failure to win an u title is the only missing observation in Table 9 where the distribution of Connaught football titles is presented. Table 9: Distribution of Connaught Football Titles by County, Senior and Minor , and Under Senior U Minor Galway Mayo Roscommon Sligo Leitrim 7 6 Figure presents the change level of competitive balance in the province. The senior championship has been competitive since the mid970 after Galway s dominance in the earlier decades. The initial spike in the u championship measure is cause by Mayo s 6 titles in seven years from 970 while the later spike is due to Galway s achievement of the same feat in the years after 987. Mayo achieved the same rate of success at minor level from 97 whereas Galway won 7 titles in the decade between 986 and Figure : Ten Year Rolling Measure of Competitive Balance in Connaught Senior, U and Minor Football Senior U Minor

20 A comparison of the competitiveness of the four provincial senior championships is presented in Figure. Overall the Munster Championship is the least competitive while the Ulster championship is the most competitive. On the surface it seems that it is difficult to tell if the Connaught or Leinster championship is more competitive. However, when one considers that Connaught has only 5 counties while Leinster has then it suggests that Connaught is more competitive. Figure : Ten Year Rolling Measure of Competitive Balance in Provincial Senior Championships Munster Leinster Ulster Connaught 0

21 VI. Potential Consequences and Sources of Competitive Balance Competitive Balance and Attendances The theoretical literature on the demand for sporting events suggests that the more uncertain the outcome of a game then the larger the expected attendance. However, the empirical evidence for such a hypothesis is mixed (see Table A in the Appendix). An examination of the attendance figures for senior intercounty demonstrates that the most important determinants of attendances are the stage of the competition, the population of the participating county and the location of the fixture (Considine, 007). These factors make it more difficult to determine if there is a role for competitive balance in explaining attendance figures. When combined with the limited number of observations due to the nature of cup competitions it is almost impossible to say for certain what role competitive balance plays. The best that can be done is to highlight some avenues for potential exploration. An examination of the competitive balance and attendances in Munster and Leinster hurling provides some evidence that improved competitive balance increases attendances. Figure 6 compared the competitive balance of both senior championships. It demonstrated that while the competitive balance in both championships was approximately the same in the early 990s, and both championship became more competitive during the mid990s, the Munster championship showed greater gains in competitive balance and it maintained this improvement right through the decade and beyond. If one looks at the combined semifinals and final attendances for the each province, as presented in Table 0, then one can see that the Munster championship games are better attended although the increase in attendances is not as great as the increase in competitive balance. If the changing patterns of attendances in each province are examined then there is further evidence to suggest that competitive balance matters. Leinster attendances hit their highest levels in 997 the year after Wexford s Leinster and AllIreland titles. Attendances then settled at somewhere between 80,000 and 90,000 except for 00 the year of Ireland s participation in the soccer WorldCup. The 005 figure of

22 56,754 is the third lowest for the period and given Kilkenny s continued dominance it would be interesting to see the 006 and 007 figures. The Munster figures show a continual rise between 99 and 999 except for 996 where (uncompetitive) Kerry were one of the semifinalists as a result of the draw. During this period Clare won three titles, Limerick two, Tipperary one and Waterford were beaten only after a replay in 998. And, Cork reemerged as a force in 999. The Munster figures are complicated by the different capacity constraints in different venues, e.g. there is more than a 0,000 difference between Semple Stadium and Pairc Ui Chaoimh. Table 0: Attendances at Munster and Leinster Provincial Hurling Semifinals and Finals, Munster Leinster ,446 85,9 9,596 9,60 5,90 9,6 4,74,04 6,6 05,65,8 9,546 0,70 49,75 57,4 5,09 64,7 07,54 78,567 90,67 7,966 86,6 60,000 90,850 84,566 56,745 Note: Attendances are calculated as the sum of the two semifinals and the final. Replays are not included. In Leinster all semifinals were played as doubleheaders with the exception of 00. On the surface the attendances at Ulster football finals are more difficult to reconcile with the measure of competitive balance presented here. As Ulster football becomes dominated by Armagh and Tyrone in the early part of this decade attendances actually increase. Between 000 and 00 Ulster finals attract attendances of 4,6 in 000 (Armagh and Derry), 4,500 in 00 (Tyrone and Cavan), 4,000 in 00 (Armagh and Donegal) and,590 in 00 (Tyrone and Down). 8 There is a substantial increase to 67,7 and 6,000 in 004 and 005 respectively. However, these finals were played in the larger capacity Croke Park with at least one of the teams having won an AllIreland in the previous two years. This would suggest that the relationship

23 between competitive balance and attendance is not a clear cut as one might expect and that there are more important determinants of attendances. Source of Competitive Balance Conventional wisdom holds that senior title distribution follows underage success. If one examines the rank ordering of counties in the above tables then one sees that those counties that win more senior titles also tend to win more underage titles. However, there are exceptions. In hurling, Galway have had difficult translating underage success into senior AllIrelands. In football, Cork head the AllIreland roll of honour at both u and minor level with 0 titles in each grade but they have won only three AllIrelands during the same period. 9 Tyrone and Mayo also have greater success at underage in provincial football competitions than they do at senior level. The fact that the same counties tend to win at all three grades might suggest that there is a common cause of the success in each grade. However, it is still possible that underage success plays a role in determining senior success. An examination of most senior breakthrough success since 980 will show that it was preceded by a breakthrough at underage level. In hurling, Galway effectively made the breakthrough in 980 given that it was 57 years since its only previous title. Members of the victorious u sides of 97 and 978 played on that team. While the Offaly team of 98 did not have previous underage AllIreland success the county won its first Leinster underage title of the period in Some of the Clare 995 team had minor AllIreland medals from 989. In football, there were breakthroughs by Donegal in 99, Derry in 99, Armagh in 00 and Tyrone in 00. With the exception of Armagh all had previous underage success by players playing in the breakthrough team and even the Armagh team of 00 had players that were beaten in an AllIreland final from ten years earlier. Donegal had players from the u winning team in 987, Derry had players from the 8 The 00 final attracted 9,88 spectators for the replay. 9 O Muircheartaight (004:5) attributes Cork s senior success of the late 980s to success at u level plus the acquisition of Larry Tomkins and Shay Fahy. 0 It should be also noted that the Offaly teams of 994 and 998 were backboned by the three minor titles in the late 980s.

24 minor successes of 98 and 989, and Tyrone had players from the u titles of 000 and 00 plus he minor winning teams of 998 and 00. The link between underage success and senior success can also be seen in exceptional senior success. In football, Kerry won fourinarow between 978 and 98. These teams were largely made up of footballers who had exceptional success at u level with Kerry winning the titles in 97, 975, 976 and 977. In hurling Cork won threeinarow between 976 and 978. These teams where made up of players who had exceptional success at u and minor level where Cork won minor titles in 967, 969, 970 and 97 and followed this up with u success in 968, 969, 970, 97 and 97. While it is impossible to trace the causation of success because there are so many factors playing a role it is clear that underage success is almost a prerequisite to senior success. In this context the competitive balance at underage level might indicate what lies in store for the future. This is not always apparent from the competitive balance measures presented in the earlier figures but that might have more to do with the measure used than the lack of a link between underage success and senior success. The also won three titles in 984, 985 and 986 with many of the same players supplemented by some from the minor success in

25 VI. Conclusions This paper presented measure of competitive balance in intercounty hurling and football. The results suggest that in many competitions competitive balance has decreased in the st century. This is the case in all senior competitions. Leinster football being the exception but even here competitive balance has started to increase with Dublin s threeinarow. Although it is much too early to say it might be noted that in the ten years since the change in the AllIreland hurling structure competitive balance is now at its poorest for the period. In 997 Clare won its last title and the following year Offaly won its last title. Neither county would be listed among the favourites for 008. Some might wonder what would have happened in 004 when both counties competed in the All Ireland final despite being beaten in their provincial deciders. However, it must be remembered that Offaly s 998 title was also a backdoor title. Leinster senior hurling is currently the least competitive of all competitions but that is unsurprising given Kilkenny s dominance of the provincial minor competition in the 990s the only competition to achieve a value of 00. Dublin s recent underage success offers some hope that this might be changing but Wexford s lack of a minor title since 985 is worrying. In football the return to a seeded draw in the Munster senior championship probably means that the title is more likely to remain the preserve of Kerry and Cork. 5

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28 APPENDIX Table A: Literature on Outcome Uncertainity Authors Testing Variable(s) Data Results Noll (974) Seasonal Whether team in contention for playoff. Hart et al (975) Whether championship close. Ice hockey Baseball Match Log difference in league positions Four English football clubs 969/70 to 970/7 Jennett (984) Seasonal Championship/relegation significance of each game Borland (987) Seasonal Difference in games won between first and last. Sum of coefficients of variation of games won. Average number of games behind leader. Number of teams in contention. Scottish League football Victorian Football League (Australian Rules) Cairns (987) Seasonal Dummy of Contention in championship Four Scottish Clubs 969/70 to 979/80 Jones and Ferguson (988) Whitney (988) Peel and Thomas (988) Kuypers (996) Baimbridge et al (996) Match Dummy for topofthetable and bottomofthetable matches NHL season 977/8 Seasonal Average expected probability of winning Baseball Match Betting odds (probability of home win) 98/ English League Football Matches Match Seasonal Seasonal Source: Szymanski and Kuypers (000) Betting odds (difference in max and min) New measure based on points and games left Dummy when both teams in top (bottom) four positions 99/4 individual English Premier League Matches 99/4 individual English Premier League Matches Weak Support Weak Support Mixed Strong support Weak support Strong Support No support Weak Support Probability of home win significant No Support Support No Support 8