UPDATE ON THE OMEGA-3 MARKET

Transcription

1 UPDATE ON THE OMEGA-3 MARKET November 7, 2013

2 There is both a supply and a demand problem with omega-3s.

3 How much omega-3 do we need?

4 250 mg/day WHO and EU Recommended Intake 400 mg/day Omega-3 Mortality Paper 1000 mg/day Japanese Recommended Intake Source: WHO, EFSA, Mozaffarian et al 2013 Ann Int Med, Japanese MHLW

5 250 mg/day 400 mg/day 1000 mg/day 0.65 million tons per year 1.02 million tons per year 2.55 million tons per year Source: GOED analysis

6 Our EPA/DHA Needs (thousands of tons) 2550 The problem is the oceans do not provide enough EPA and DHA today and there are already fears about overfishing in many species The Oceans' Capacity (thousands of tons) Seafood Consumption: 125 Seafood Waste: 200 Reduction Fisheries: 205 Japan Model Mortality Model WHO Model Source: GOED analysis of FAO and USDA data

7 Intakes Above RDIs Intakes Below RDIs In addition, there is a clear nutrition need in most of the world to increase intakes The Gaps Between RDIs and Average EPA+DHA Intakes, mg/day RDIs Source: GOED/Cantox study, Hibbeln et al 2006, Chinese CDC

8 There is both a supply and a demand problem with omega-3s. Let's look at the demand side of the equation.

9 Brazil 98% United States 98% Spain 96% Germany 96% United Kingdom 95% Australia 95% France 94% Consumer awareness is high in most countries, but there are some worrying trends in countries like Japan. Canada 94% India 94% Italy 93% Norway 93% Finland 89% Russia 89% Sweden 88% Iceland 87% China 86% Denmark 77% Japan 58% 50% 75% 100% Sources: GOED Proprietary Consumer Research, Leatherhead, YouGov

10 In developed countries usage rates are generally high when you consider all sources of omega-3s, but supplements are not always a main driver 63% 33% 47% 15% Germany 27% 55% 27% UK 31% 54% 30% 23% Australia 35% 51% 27% 19% US 35% 49% 27% 36% 10% France Supplements Functional Foods Seafood 44% 18% 22% 24% Canada 10% 10% 30% Japan 22% Source: GOED Proprietary Consumer Research

11 The BRIC countries are interesting because of their high acceptance of omega-3s and recently gained economic power 81% 55% 32% 55% 77% 41% 65% 18% 69% 53% 39% 17% 61% 31% 34% 36% India Russia Brazil China Supplements Functional Foods Seafood Source: GOED Proprietary Consumer Research

12 There are countries with avid omega-3 supplement usage, but there are also highly aware countries with very low usage Reported Omega-3 Supplement Usage by Adults Source: GOED Proprietary Consumer Research, Dentsu, YouGov

13 An "awareness conversion" opportunity exists in countries where the usage-awareness spread is highest Gap Between Omega-3 Awareness and Omega-3 Supplement Usage Source: GOED Proprietary Consumer Research

14 $25.4 Billion 2012 Estimated Global Consumer Spending on Products Containing EPA/DHA Oils

15 Through our life stages, we can see why omega-3s may be valuable Fetal growth Maternal stores Brain Growth Visual Development Brain Growth Regulating Inflammation Proper Protein Function Neurological Cell Preservation Regulating Inflammation Cellular Health

16 Accurate estimates for spending to manage lifestage issues do not exist, but infant nutrition is a clear focus ~$300 Million $11-12 Billion $4-6 Billion $5-7 Billion $1-2 Billion Foods Supplements Infant Formulas Foods Foods Supplements Supplements Pharmaceutical Foods Supplements Pharmaceutical Clinical Nutrition Key Categories Source: GOED estimates

17 China is now the third largest market for EPA and DHA oils and will be larger than Europe shortly Consumption of EPA- and DHA-Rich Oils by Region, 2011 (metric tons) China 14,009 North America 39,806 Europe 22,574 Rest of Asia 12,792 Rest of World 10,259 Japan 3,809 Source: GOED, Frost & Sullivan, IMF

18 Spending in these categories is concentrated in premium product categories Global Consumer Spending on EPA & DHA Omega-3 Products, 2011 Billions of US$ Dietary Supplements $3.2 Infant Formula $10.2 Fortified Food and Beverage $7.9 Pharma $1.9 Clinical Nutrition $1.3 Pet Foods $0.9 Source: Packaged Facts

19 However, dietary supplements dominate consumption Global Consumption of EPA & DHA Omega-3 Products, 2011 metric tons Pet Foods 21,623 Dietary Supplements 62,569 Fortified Food and Beverage 12,950 Infant Formula 3,457 Pharma 1,922 Source: Frost & Sullivan

20 EPA and DHA omega-3s have become attractive targets for new pharma products Pharmaceuticals or pharma targets in development or on the market using EPA and/or DHA omega-3s Companies that are publicly looking into new pharma targets using EPA and/or DHA Health indications being targeted by these new and existing pharma products Source: GOED Analysis

21 Psoriasis $2.5B Rheumatoid Arthritis $12.2B Type 2 Diabetes $23.3B All Cardiovascular Drugs $144.7B Asthma / COPD $11.2B IBDs $2.4B Multiple Sclerosis $6.3B Chronic Inflammatory Diseases $35.5B Cardiac Failure Prevention $11.0B Mixed Dyslipidemia $10.5B Borderline High TGs Potential Unknown NAFLD $1.7B Autism Spectrum $3.1B Very High TGs $8.0B Opthalmic Drugs $18.7B Dry Eye $1.9B Retinal Diseases $5.2B Cancer $75B Source: GOED Analysis, BCC Research, MarketScope, GlobalData, Company Filings EPA/DHA $1.9B Omega-3 drugs / targets All pharmaceuticals

22 The pharmaceutical market will shape the supply of omega-3s going forward. If omega-3s achieve the same penetration in other indications as they achieved in the very high triglyceride market, the omega-3 drug market could reach more than $23 billion in global sales. At this level, these products could demand around 460,000 tons of crude fish oil with 30% EPA /DHA.

23 There is both a supply and a demand problem with omega-3s. Now let's switch to issues in the supply side of the equation.

24 Algae Oils $330 million Salmon Oils $40 million Natural Anchovy / Sardine Oils $608 million Cod Liver Oils $63 million Small-volume segments of the market like krill have been able to achieve premium positioning and value Krill Oils $51 million Low Concentrates $45 million Medium Source: Frost & Sullivan High Concentrates $400 million Tuna Oils $128 million Concentrates $198 million 2011 Global Sales of EPA and DHA Ingredients $1.81 billion Volumes 60,000mt 100mt

25 And krill oil grew faster than any single segment of the omega-3 market despite being at the high end of the market +68% growth Krill Oils $86 million Krill Oils $51 million Volumes 60,000mt Source: Frost & Sullivan, Aker Biomarine 100mt

26 YEAST: 50 HERRING: 100 KRILL: 580 HOKI: 1,200 ALGAE: 3,500 SALMON: 3,900 SQUID: 5,000 POLLOCK: 7,500 TUNA: 9,200 COD: 11,300 It is no secret that understanding of omega-3 supply trends is tied intimately to the anchovy fisheries MENHADEN: 15,000 ANCHOVY: 185,000 DROPS OF OIL 2012 Estimated Crude Oil Usage for Omega-3 Applications in Metric Tons Source: GOED Members

27 However, omega-3 growth is going to reach the sustainable limits of supply from that fishery Crude Anchovy Fish Oil Production and Omega-3 Market Demand (in 000s of metric tons) Typical Sustainable Cap Crude fish oil production Omega-3 market demand Source: International Fishmeal and Fish Oil Organisation, Frost & Sullivan, GOED Analysis

28 Dietary supplements are still demanding the bulk of anchovy oils Omega-3 Demand Outlets for Crude Anchoveta Fish Oil (in metric tons) Pharmaceutical 41,780 Dietary Supplements 122,980 Pet Food 26,490 Functional Food 16,420 Clinical Nutrition 3,090 Source: Frost & Sullivan, GOED Analysis

29 Fish oil concentrates account for Much of the omega-3 demand for crude anchovy oils was driven by demand from fish oil concentrates in the past 11% of EPA/DHA omega-3 products, but 51% of anchovy oil demand from omega-3 applications

30 Crude Anchovy Oil Requirements of Fish Oil Concentrates by EPA/DHA Concentration Concentration of fish oils is becoming more efficient though, and we have heard of at least three concentrators that claim to be launching new manufacturing processes that waste no EPA and DHA

31 Crude Anchovy Oil Requirements of Fish Oil Concentrates by EPA/DHA Concentration The effects on crude fish oil demand from improvements in concentration could lead to much lower demand in the near-term

32 EPA and DHA Capacity By Fishery, 2010 Anchoveta 112,000 tons Alaska Pollock 30,300 tons Skipjack Tuna 23,400 tons Japanese Anchovy 19,000 tons Minor Marine Fisheries 17,700 tons Blue Whiting 16,800 tons Atlantic Cod 16,100 tons Silver Carp 15,800 tons Atlantic Herring 12,800 tons Yellowfin Tuna 12,400 tons Freshwater Fisheries 11,800 tons 129 Other Fisheries 139,500 tons Eleven fishery groups account for 55% of the earth's EPA and DHA capacity today, so any threat to these fisheries is significant to humans. This includes overfishing, pollution, and of course, improper management of the gene pool. Source: GOED analysis of FAO and USDA data

33 We know that fishery capacity of EPA and DHA is already changing and that we are more reliant on fewer fisheries for these nutrients, the anchoveta fishery in particular. 30-Year Change in EPA and DHA Capacities of Leading Fisheries ,000 tons 75,000 tons Anchoveta 50,000 tons 25,000 tons Alaska Pollock Skipjack tuna Jap. Anchovy Blue Whiting Atlantic Cod Silver Carp Increased Reliance Decreased Reliance Source: GOED analysis of FAO and USDA data

34 The Peruvian Anchoveta fishery has suffered in the past from poor management, but has recovered due to successful, aggressive action. Biomass of Peruvian Anchoveta, Source: IMARPE

35 Available EPA and DHA Capacity from Selected Fisheries in metric tons Many other fisheries can supply enough EPA and DHA to be attractive to the right omega-3 customers now Source: GOED Analysis of data from Anthony Bimbo

36 Commercially Available In Development Fish Squid Zooplankton Algae Fungi GM Plants Anchovy Sardine Mackerel Tuna Cod Salmon Menhaden Trout Pollock Hoki Halibut Sandeel Angelfish Saithe Market Squid Shortfin Squid Antarctic Krill Pacific Krill Northern Krill Calanus Shrimp Schizochytrium Crypthecodinium Euglena Nannochloropsis Phaeodactylum Nitzschia alba Y. Lipolytica M. alpina Sap. diclina Sac. kluyveri C. elegans Soybeans Rapeseed Brassica Linseed Rockcress The list of omega-3 sources, both commercial and in research, is getting longer with new algaes, new fish and new zooplankton projects having been announced in the last six months

37 Krill Salmon Roe Herring Roe Egg Yolk Sandeel Nannochloropsis Phospholipid Path New sources being launched will compete with anchovy oils. Each of these new sources is launching with their own unique value proposition to differentiate from the dominant anchovy. Shrimp Nannochloropsis Squid Soy SDA Triglyceride Path

38 We also need to find new sources of EPA and DHA to relieve pressure on fisheries. This includes more efficient use of fishery waste, genetically modified plants, improved efficiency in aquaculture, and of course algae.

39 Photobioreactor Open-Air Fermentation Commercially producing DHA today High cost of capital Uses sugars as energy sources Limited production of EPA today High cost of capital Uses sunlight as energy source Algal sources of omega-3s are being researched in three predominant types of production systems No commercial production today High cost of capital Uses sunlight as energy source

40 All Other Applications 25% 1,270 tons of DHA Infant Formula 75% Most algal DHA is going into infant formulas and provides less than 0.2% of the world's omega-3 nutrition needs today. Source: Frost & Sullivan report commissioned by GOED

41 What is the potential of algae to fill demand that the oceans cannot provide? It will depend on the economies of scale that these companies can achieve in order to displace their higher capital costs.

42 Ingredient Value Individual segments will vary significantly from the overall trend, with more valuable ingredients exceeding the averages Higher Ingredient Sales ($mil) 3-year Growth Trend Growth Drivers Challenges Calanus Oil $1.5 Significantly Above Trend New product launches High cost; less developed science; developing a wax-ester story Krill Oil $86 Significantly Above Trend New product launches and entry into China High Fish Oil Concentrates Above Trend New pharmaceutical approvals Algae Oil $330 At Trend New entrants with unique oils Fish Phospholipids Medium Fish Oil Concentrates $400 $3 $243 Science developing and winning sustainability critics Intellectual property and increasing raw material costs Educating consumers about an EPA-only story; reducing costs Above Trend New product launches Telling the phospholipid story Above Trend Upgrading consumers Converting entry-level users Tuna Oils $128 Above Trend Growth of infant formulas Regulatory fears about fish oils Lower Salmon Oils $43 Above Trend Upgrading consumers to a Regulatory barriers in some countries virgin oil Cod Liver Oils $63 Below Trend Specialty consumers Stigma about taste and consuming liquids Natural Fish Oils $608 Below Trend Bringing new consumers to market Largest markets becoming saturated

43 Questions? Adam Ismail