Key success factors of the Polish livestock production. Will it continue after the implementation of new CAP reform?

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1 Key success factors of the Polish livestock production. Will it continue after the implementation of new CAP reform? Waldemar Guba Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development XXVI FEFAC Conference, Cracow, June 2013 Outline of presentation Key factors Performance Impact of the CAP Potential impacts of the refromed CAP Conclusions Driving factors Domestic market: size, competition, income changes and preferences Access to single EU market Modernisation / restructuring / concentration at all levels of marketing chain CAP support measures (direct and indirect effects) EU and domestic environmental legislation Quality systems, promotion funds, export orientation Feed industry 1

2 Performance (1) Production (and consumption) changes between 2005 and 2011 meat +16% (+3,1%) poultry +43% (+8,5%) pork -1% (+4,2%) beef +28% (-31,9%) milk +4% (+8,0%) Performance (2) Net export value in selected agricultural products (thous. EURO) * preliminary data Meat fresh, chilled or frozen. Source: MARD. Performance - summary (3) Constant growth in poultry sector Increase in beef production linked to dairy with slow increase in specialized quality beef herd Good performance of dairy with full quota utilisation, increase in processed products Decrease in pork production due to high feed costs, fragmented structure, low integration and lagging technology 2

3 Structural changes Structural changes in livestock sector (1) Change in the number of farms, cattle and pigs heads in 2010 compared to 2002 Number of suppliers (at the end of the quota year) and the average size of milk supply in Poland 3

4 Structural changes in livestock sector (2) Livestock and number of farms with pigs according to the scale of breeding in 2002 and 2010 (thous.) % % 2010 Number of agricultural producer groups Source: MARD. Structural changes in livestock sector (4) Industrial companies producing food (without micro-enterprises) Industry Production capacity* of one Number of industrial companies company in mln PLN =100% =100% Meat % 13,8 26,1 189% Poultry % 26,2 57,2 218% Fish % 15,3 34,9 228% Milk % 37,0 85,1 230% Food industry - total % 13,9 23,7 171% * in current basic prices Source: IERiGŻ. 4

5 Impacts of present CAP Impacts of present CAP (1) Direct Payments Fully decoupled, Single Area Payment Scheme (c.a. 80% of EU-27 average rate per ha) CNDP for permanent pastures (decoupled with historical minimum stock density) Art. 68 coupled payments to cows (up to 10 animals) in 5 mountain voivodships (c.a. 12% of country herd) and ewes (herds above 10 ewes) in 7 voivodships (c.a. 45% of ewes country herd) Impacts of present CAP (2) Common Market Organisation (1) Full utilisation of milk quota (10.06 million tonnes in 2013/14) with overrun in 2005/06 and 2012/13 Public intervention and private storage dominated by plant products (cereals, sugar), although some quantities of SMP, butter and pork benefited from those measures Limited use of export refunds In 2008, poultry producers due to H5N1 avian influenza related losses benefited from exceptional market support measures CAP promotion and information programmes 5

6 Impacts of present CAP (3) Rural Development Programme Support to on farm investment (10% of RDP since 2004) 2/3 of that support goes to livestock farms, mainly in dairy production more than half for manure management Support to modernisation of processing Participation in quality systems Support to producer groups Agri-env. payment for extensive permanent pastures (minimum stock density) The share of beneficiaries of measure Modernisation of agricultural holdings and measure Setting up of young farmers in the farm population according to CSO - area groups Reformed CAP 6

7 Potential impacts of the reformed CAP (1) Direct payments Limited degree of external convergence Role of internal convergence in the sector despite decoupled nature of support (?) SAPS to be continued by 2020 Coupled payments, possibly between 12%-15%; Redistributive payment and lump sum SFS payment would disfavour livestock sector in PL Capping optional for MS? Share of the farms with cattle and pigs in total number of farms in 2012 Potential impacts of the reformed CAP (2) Greening measures: limited constraining impact on production of feed-grains (crop diversification and EFA) rather neutral effect on permanent pasture area in PL c.a. 32% of farms and 7% of area may be green by definition by participating in Small Farmers Scheme 7

8 Potential impacts of the reformed CAP (3) Prospected decrease in RDP budget due to lower initial allocation and possible shift of funds to pillar I Restructuring, modernisation, competitiveness the key priorities for Poland Trade off with environment-climate goals? Complex interlinks between I and II CAP pillars and between RDP and other programs covered by CSF Potential impacts of the reformed CAP (4) Measures considered by MARD for the new RDP to improve structure, productivity and competitiveness in the sector: Knowledge transfer (art. 15) Advisory services ( art. 16) Quality schemes (art. 17) Investments in physical assets (art. 18) Setting-up of producer groups (art. 28) Agri-environment-climate (art. 29) Organic farming (art. 30) Co-operation (art. 36) EIP network (art. 53) Potential impacts of the reformed CAP (3) CMO reform Increased exposure to World Market (price convergence) and further deregulation : abolishment of quota in dairy and sugar intervention system remains as a safety net extended use of emergency measures focus on consolidation and food chain functioning 8

9 Some conclusions (1) The positive performance of the sector is both due to external factors such as access to single market, competitive domestic market, structural aid and restructuring and modernization Still there are large efficiency reserves both technical (e.g. organization, feeding methods and genetics) and scale related (further concentration) The progress is constrained by lagging agrarian structure changes Some conclusions (2) There is a list of issues being internalised in policy and business strategies such as (i) high feed costs, (ii) legislation on environment- climate- animal welfare, food safety (iii) prospected ban on GMO feed (2017) CAP reform will maintain coupled payments while full internal convergence will be postponed With (maintained) differences in support rates and (increased) flexibility to shape the CAP impact will differ between Member States Thank you for attention! 9

10 Investment outlays in agriculture and hunting (current prices, mln PLN) Structural changes in livestock sector (3) Livestock and number of farms with cattle according to the scale of breeding in 2002 and 2010 (thous.) % % 2002 Impacts of present CAP (3) CAP promotion and information measures: Tradition, quality and European taste destined for USA, Korean and Vietnamese markets, and aiming at increasing EU exports; Information campaign on pork (fresh, chilled or frozen) produced according to national quality system Pork Quality System - PQS destined for domestic market and aiming at informing consumers, traders and media on functioning of the PQS; QMP - beef always good destined for domestic market; New quality in poultry industry information campaign related to system Quality Assurance for Food Products, destined for Polish and German markets; I am mad about milk promotion campaign destined for children and their parents Domestic promotion funds (administered by the Agricultural Markets Agency) for Pork; Beef; Poultry; Milk. 10

11 Average number of cattle and pigs per farm (heads/farm) 11

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