US Lodging Industry What Lies Ahead? Jan D. Freitag Vice President STR
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From this document you will learn the answers to the following questions:
What year did the US High End Hotels have the highest number of rooms?
What did Negotiated Rates Will Take All Year To do?
What city had the highest Room Demand?
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1 US Lodging Industry What Lies Ahead? Jan D. Freitag Vice President STR
2 Agenda Total US Overview Group vs. Transient Major Markets Chain Scales Forecast
3 Click on Industry Presentations
4 2011 So far, so blah
5 Total US - Key Statistics Q % Change Hotels 52k Room Supply 432 mm 1.0% Room Demand 237 mm 6.7% Occupancy 54.9% 5.7% A.D.R. $99 3.1% RevPAR $55 9.0% Room Revenue $23.6 bn 10.0%
6 Strongest Demand Rebound Ever. Supply Line Turning 9 6 Supply Demand 8.0% % % % *Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/89 3/11
7 Demand Leads ADR, But Swings Get More Extreme 10 Demand ADR % -0.2% 1.6% % -4.6% % -8.7% *Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/89 3/11
8 % Change 10 Demand Recovery Ongoing ADR Moving, Too Demand % Change ADR % Change /1/11 1/22/11 2/12/11 3/5/11 3/26/11 4/16/11 *28 Day Moving Average through 4/23/11
9 Millions Gas Price vs. Room Demand: This Means What? Room Demand $ / Gallon $4.50 $ $3.50 $ $2.50 $ /8/06 1/1/07 12/31/07 12/29/08 12/28/09 12/27/10 * US Room Demand vs. US Average Gas Price $ / Gallon (Source: $1.50
10 Gas Price vs. Room Demand: Geek Speak We note relatively low correlation coefficients and predictive values (R2) across the time period tested. In fact, the correlation coefficient between total U.S. lodging demand and WTI and Brent prices is 0.37 (R2 0.14) and 0.38 (R2 0.14), respectively. Joe Greff, J.P. Morgan, 3/10/11
11 Absolute ADR Will Not Recover for At Least 2 Years $ Months -$10.60 $100 $90 $80 41 Months -$3.70 $ * Total US, ADR, 12 MMA, 1/00 3/11
12 Group vs. Transient Performance
13 Millions YTD 2011 Transient Room Demand Outpaced Prior Years Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US High End Hotels, Monthly Transient Demand: Jan March 2011
14 Transient ADR Well Below 2007/08 $ $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US High End Hotels, Monthly Transient ADR: Jan March 2011
15 Millions Group Room Demand Picking Up! Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US High End Hotels, Monthly Group Demand: Jan March 2011
16 Negotiated Rates Will Take All Year To Burn Off $ $160 $150 $140 $130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US High End Hotels, Monthly Group ADR: Jan March 2011
17 Transient ADR Premium Recovery: 2 Years To Go? $11.40 $11.95 $10 $6 $2 34 Months 18 Months $ Mo. -$ * Total US, Transient ADR Premium Over Group ADR, 12 MMA, 1/03 1/11
18 Markets
19 Demand Change: Pain For All. Recovery For All % 7.8% 7.6% BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF Top 25 less BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF All Other Markets * Select Geographies, Room Demand % Change, 12 MMA, 2000 Q1 2011
20 ADR: Coastal Markets Get Hit Harder, Recover Faster % 1.0% 0.8% BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF Top 25 less BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF All Other Markets *Select Geographies, ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 2000 Q1 2011
21 Dallas Growing Demand at Quickest Pace Dallas Phoenix Orlando Los Angeles San Francisco Oahu Island Minneapolis Top 25 Markets Total United States Chicago All Other Markets Philadelphia Atlanta San Diego New York Boston Washington, DC Major U.S. Markets - Room Demand % Change, Q1 11
22 Destination Markets With Highest Occupancies Oahu Island Phoenix 73.0 Orlando 71.8 San Francisco 70.2 New York 70.1 Los Angeles 69.4 San Diego 65.0 Top 25 Markets 62.9 Atlanta 59.3 Washington, DC 59.3 Dallas 58.8 Philadelphia 58.7 Boston 56.4 Minneapolis-St Paul 55.1 Total United States 54.9 All Other Markets 51.2 Chicago 50.6 Major U.S. Markets - OCC %, Q March 2011 YTD
23 San Francisco Most Successful at Pushing Rate San Francisco Oahu Island Dallas Los Angeles San Diego Chicago New York Orlando Boston Philadelphia Top 25 Markets Total United States Minneapolis Washington, DC All Other Markets Phoenix Atlanta Major U.S. Markets ADR % Change, Q1 11
24 Chain Scales
25 2011 STR Chain Scales Selected chains from each segment Luxury Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont, InterContinental Upper Upscale Hyatt, Embassy Suites, Hilton, Marriott Upscale Hyatt Place, Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard, Hotel Indigo Upper Midscale Best Western PLUS/Premier, Hampton Inn Midscale Best Western, Country Inn & Suites, La Quinta Inn Economy America s Best Inn, Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn
26 Very Sluggish ADR Recovery Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Indep. US Chain Scales OCC & ADR % Change: YTD March 2011
27 Upper End Sells 6 of 10 Rooms, Midscale & Economy Lag Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Indep. US Chain Scales Occupancy Percent: YTD March 2011
28 Luxury Rate Premium Increasing Again $ $ $ $90.39 $70.35 $95.33 $46.89 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Indep. Total U.S.: Chain Scales Actual ADR: YTD March 2011
29 Luxury ADR Premium Increase On Pace $130 $128 $120 $110 $104 $ Months $96 $ * Luxury ADR Premium Over Upper Upscale ADR, 12 MMA, 1/05 3/11 $95 14 Mo $103
30 Forecast
31 Total United States Markets with Most Rooms In Construction ( 000s) March 2011 New York 6.8 Orlando Washington D.C Dallas 1.5 Miami Hileah Philadelphia Chicago
32 Total United States Top 15 Brands All Active Phases March 2011 Holiday Inn Express Hampton Inn Suites Holiday Inn Courtyard Residence Inn Fairfield Inn La Quinta Inn & Suites Hilton Garden Inn Candlewood Suites Springhill Suites Staybridge Suites Comfort Suites Hampton Inn TownPlace Suites Home2 Suites 16,083 14,081 12,589 11,455 10,984 9,831 9,612 8,611 8,578 8,322 6,828 6,120 5,502 5,294 23,719
33 2011 Total US Outlook Low Growth Forecast High Growth Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
34 2011 Chain Scale Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independent Total US
35 Total United States Occupancy Percent P P 2012P
36 Total United States ADR P $125 $100 $91.03 $97.82 $ $ $98.18 $98.08 $ $ $75 $ P 2012P
37 2011: The Year of The Hotel Flasher
38 2012 Total US Outlook Low Growth Forecast High Growth Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
39 2012 Chain Scale Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independent Total US
40 Click on Industry Presentations
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