Lisbon so far and the future Post-Lisbon Strategy: comments on the social dimension. Eulalia Rubio Barceló Notre Europe

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1 Lisbon so far and the future Post-Lisbon Strategy: comments on the social dimension Eulalia Rubio Barceló Notre Europe

2 The 2005 revamped Lisbon- the new architecture Core Lisbon process focused on growth and jobs Various social OMCs integrated into a single one (OMC on social protection and social inclusion) Mutually reinforcing dynamic between IGs/NRPs and social OMCs at both EU and national level ensured through feed in and feed out

3 The 2005 revamped Lisbon- the normative foundations Combination of two EU social policy discourses; Social investment policy thinking- social policies as a productive factor New variant of the old trickle-down discourse- a high-skilled knowledgebased economy generates social cohesion and ensures high levels of living standards

4 Social OMC three-year cycle -More strategic and more simplified reporting Progress in the definition of commonlyagreed quantitative indicators....but objectives remain broad and absence of quantitative targets - i.e to make a decisive impact on the eradication of poverty and social exclusion

5 Social OMC in action: impact on national policy Heidenreich/Zeitlin (ed.) 2009, Changing European Employment and Welfare Regimes: The influence of theomc on national reforms Positive cognitive effect Shifts in national agendas Procedural shifts But no significant changes in policy

6 Social OMC in action (1) outcomes Commission Staff Working Document (2008) monitoring progress towards the objectives of the European Strategy for social protection and social inclusion On poverty and social inclusion: Unemployment rates have decreased (from 8,6% in 2000 to 7,1% in 2007) % of early school-leavers has decreased (from 17,1% in 2001 to 14,8% in 2007)

7 Social OMC in action (2) outcomes.. But disappointing results in: Poverty - Overall poverty rate has not improved Child poverty- rates have remained stable or increased since mid-1990s in most EU countries

8 Social OMC in action (3) outcomes On pensions: Employment rates of older workers (55-64) have significantly increased (from 37% in 2000 to 45% in 2007) But poverty rates for over 65 have increased (from 17% in 2000 to 19% in 2007) and uncertainty with respect to the impact of current pension reforms on pension adequacy

9 Social OMC in action (4) outcomes So, with all caution feed-in has slightly worked feed-out has not worked so well 2008 Joint Report on SC/SI: Economic growth and job creation has not automatically enhanced social cohesion or improved the situation of those most marginalised in society

10 Two counter-arguments - Need to look at country level if there is a relationship between growthsocial outcomes - Need to look not only at the country level, but to look at the good Lisbon performers (countries which have followed knowledge-based virtuous growth path)

11 Impact of economic growth on poverty

12 Economic growth and poverty rates Among countries having an average growth rate of 4% or more in Anchored poverty rate fell significantly in Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia and Ireland It had a moderate fall in Czech Republic, Slovenia, Latvia It increased in Hungary

13 The social record of the best Lisbon performers Among the 5 countries placed at the top of CER Lisbon league table in 2005 : Two had growth of more than 2% and increases in poverty rates (AT and SE) Two had growth of more than 2% and moderate fall in poverty rates (DK and UK One had growth of less than 2% and moderate fall in poverty rate (NL)

14 A big absent in the picture: income distribution Are we growing unequal? OECD report, october 2008 Over the past 20 years, the gap between rich and poor has widened in most OECD countries The rise in inequality is generally due to the rich improving their incomes relative both to low- and middle-income people Demographic and social changes explain part of the increase but the main explanatory factor is the changes in the labour market. Since the early 1990s, wage disparities have increased remarkably in most countries. Fiscal policies play a big role in reducing inequality. Nevertheless, its impact has fallen in the past 10 years in many OECD countries. Public services (in particular healthcare, education and housing) drive greater equality

15 The crisis- some food for though No possible trickle-down effect From enabling state (access and opportunities) to insurer state (protection) Political spillover effects- need to coordinate EU responses to social consequences of the crisis Income distribution issues will come back to the agenda

16 Towards a post-lisbon agenda: some recommendations strengthening the social OMCs Setting quantitative targets Creating thematic strategies (on flexicurity, child poverty, activation) Differentiation flexicurity a good example Introducing indicators of income distribution- Gini coefficient

17 Towards a post-lisbon agenda: some recommendations On the strategy in general Systematic assessment of the social impact of reforms Inclusion of a long-term social objective (i.e keeping Gini coefficient within certain margins use of snakes ) Taking account the social dimension of the shift towards a low-carbon economy

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