OTTAWA Housing Market Update Anne-Marie Shaker

Transcription

1 OTTAWA Housing Market Update Anne-Marie Shaker

2 Key Points Single-detached sales to continue to drive resale market in 2016 Starts to rise in 2016 as row houses gain some momentum Condominium starts to scale back Expect ample rental supply and healthy rental demand

3 Resale Home Market

4 14,094 14,842 15,200 15,000 Resale Market Activity Strengthens 16,000 15, % 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 MLS Sales 10-year Average Source: OREB: RES, CON & MUL sales. (MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association)

5 Move-up Buyer Employment, Strongest Growth Source: Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey. Index 2002=100.

6 MLS Sales Growth Driven by Low-Rise Activity 6.3% 6.4% 4.7% -2.6% Single-Detached Semi&Row Condo Apt Condo Row Source: OREB.(MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association). Growth rate calculations by CMHC. * Data for 2015

7 Single-Detached Home Sales Largest Share Condo Row, 6% Condo Apt, 10% Homeowner Row, 17% Single Detached, 57% Semi, 7% Source: OREB. Data for 2015

8 Substantial Gap between New and Resale Singles $87,453 Source: OREB for resale price, CMHC for new home price. Data for 2015

9 $369,477 $376,000 $385,000 MLS Price Grows Around Inflation $ 450,000 $ 400, % $ 350,000 $ 300,000 $ 250,000 $ 200,000 $ 150,000 $ 100,000 $ 50,000 $ F 2017F Source: OREB: RES, CON & MUL price (MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association)

10 Price Growth Outpacing Earnings Growth Avg week earn, SA MLS price_sa Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board. Trend calculations by CMHC. Index, 2002=100

11 $103,166 $70,427 $106,880 $75,418 $110,086 $78,990 Yet Required Income Trails Actual Income $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $ F 2017F Actual Income Required Income Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CREA. Required income is mortgage carrying costs divided by 0.32 to reflect the usual 32 per cent gross debt service ratio. Required Income (2007, 40-Year Amortization, , 35-Year Amortization, 2011, 30-Year Amortization, starting from 2012, 25-year amortization, 5Yr-fixed Rate, 10% Down payment.)

12 Condo Sales Post Modest Gains & Prices Decline 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% -5.0% -10.0% -2.0% -1.5% -5.6% -7.3% Condo sales Condo Price Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board. Growth rate calculations by CMHC.

13 Condo Months of Supply Trending Down Freehold Condo Average Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board. Trend calculations by CMHC.

14 Overall Resale Market Remains Balanced 2,900 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1, Sales New Listings SNL 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board. Trend calculations by CMHC.

15 Ottawa MLS Zones East End Downtown Orleans West Rural West End East Rural Kanata- Stittsville Nepean Barrhaven South- East

16 MLS Sales % chg (13-15) % chg (14-15) Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board Other includes all other smaller urban areas. Full year data

17 MLS Price Growth by Neighbourhood Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board Other includes all other smaller urban areas. Full year data.

18 MLS Snapshot: Carleton Place & Surrounding Areas Sales Average Price Area Name Carleton Place $ 280,536 $ 276,411 Arnprior $ 199,453 $ 223,760 Smith Falls $ 176,309 $ 179,760 Mississippi Mills $ 393,879 $ 375,219 Perth $ 242,109 $ 239,194 North Grenville MU $ 327,812 $ 323,102 Renfrew Town $ 208,857 $ 187,773 Carleton Place, Perth, Smith Falls and Area $ 276,798 $ 266,049 Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board

19 New Home Market

20 Rows To Lead Rise in Starts Activity F 2017F Single Semi/Row Apartments Source: CMHC Starts and Completions Survey.

21 Rental Starts almost on par with Condo in ,277 2, , Rental Condo Source: CMHC Starts and Completions Survey

22 Smaller Households Drive Type of Stars Activity 61% 16% 15% 8% 1 to 2 persons 3 persons 4 persons 5+ persons Source: Statistics Canada. Census 2011

23 Weak Employment in Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey. Number in thousands.

24 Full-Time Jobs: Slow Growth , FT 15+, PT Source: Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey. Index 2002=100

25 And Public Administration Jobs Trending Up public admin services Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey. Index 2002 as base year.

26 $2,332 $2,384 $1,565 $1,733 $1,476 Rows: Lower Mortgage Payments Single Semi Free Row Condo Apt Highrise Condo Apt Lowrise Source: CMHC Starts and Completions Survey

27 And Rows are Relatively More Spacious Single 2,376 Semi 1,950 Free Row 1,825 Condo Lowrise Apt 1,374 Condo Highrise Apt 871 Source: CMHC Starts and Completions Survey. Average square footage of new construction in 2015.

28 Higher Condo Apartment Unsold Inventory Apt Semi Row single Source: CMHC Starts and Completions Survey.. Ratio per 10,000 population.

29 Old Ottawa City Highest Share in 2015 Russell Clarence Rockland West Carleton Rideau Twp Old Ottawa City Osgoode Nepean OTG Nepean ITG Kanata Gloucester OTG Gloucester ITG Goulbourn Cumberland 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 4% 6% 6% 15% 17% 17% 28% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Source: CMHC Starts and Completions Survey. Data for 2015

30 Carleton Place & Surrounding Area Starts Avg Carleton Place North Grenville MU Smith Falls Mississippi Mills Renfrew Town Arnprior T Source: CMHC Starts and Completions Survey. Total starts by area for

31 Rental Market

32 60,086 33,160 7,792 7,155 60,878 35,766 7,738 7,331 Rental Universe Increases in Private Apts Oth Sec. Units Private Row Condo Apts Source: CMHC. Rental Market Report.

33 Rental Supply Outpaces Demand in Supply Change Demand Change Source: CMHC. Rental Market Report, Supply: total rental universe of private apartments and condo apartment units. Demand is defined as supply less total vacant units.

34 Vacancy Rates Trend up in % 3.2% 2.9% 3.6% 2.6% 3.4% 2.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% Private Apartments Condo Apartments Source: CMHC. Rental Market Report,

35 $1,132 $1,526 $1,432 $1,132 $1,379 $1,429 $1,174 $1,579 $1,330 Newer Purpose-Built Apartment Rents Outpace Condo in Purpose-built Purpose-built after 2000 Condo Source: CMHC. Rental Market Report. Two-bedroom average rents.

36 Investor Condo Share Slightly Down 19% 19% 21% 24% 24% 23% Source: CMHC. Rental Market Report, Share of condo apartments offered for rent in total condo universe.

37 Risks to the Outlook Downside Inventories of completed and unsold condominium units could rise further which could lead builders to scale-back starts more than anticipated. Upside Stronger growth in employment and income could spur stronger housing activity than expected.

38 Thank you! Merci! Anne-Marie Shaker Senior Market Analyst CMHC (613) For more information or FREE reports: