Operational Procedure for Emission Reduction Assessment

Transcription

1 Operational Procedure for Emission Reduction Assessment RIAT+ methodology N. Bianchessi, C. Carnevale, G. Finzi, A. Pederzoli, E. Pisoni, E. Turrini, M. Volta (University of Brescia) G. Guariso (Politecnico di Milano)

2 BACKGROUND NO2 compliance Compliance with air quality limit values for NO2 in the air quality management zones, TSAP Report #10, Version 1.1, Amann et al, IIASA, March 2013

3 BACKGROUND PM10 compliance Compliance with air quality limit values for NO2 in the air quality management zones, TSAP Report #10, Version 1.1, Amann et al, IIASA, March 2013

4 INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT DIRECTIVE 2008/50/EC MODELLING: CHAPTER IV - Article 23 Modeling system that Air quality plans combines scientific Where... the levels of pollutants in ambient air knowledge exceed any of limit social value and or target value... Member States shall ensure natural that air quality sciences plans to are provide which data established... in order to achieve the related limit information values target for the values models, management of AQ and its COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING DECISION 2011/850/EU impacts. CHAPTER III - Article 13 Air quality plans methodologies, tools to design Air Quality In accordance with the procedure referred to in Article 5 of this Decision, Member States shall make available Plans? the information set out in Parts H, I, J and K of Annex II to this Decision on air quality plans as required by Article 23 of Directive 2008/50/EC D.L. 155/2010 art.9, D.L. 250/2012

5 AQ COMPLIANCE HEALTH ECOSYSTEMS CLIMATE CHANGE EMISSION REDUCTION COSTS IMPACTS 5

6 IAM approaches Approach 1 IAM assesses the impacts of proposed actions! Scenario analysis Approach 2 IAM identifies effective emission reduction measures! Optimization approach

7 1. IAM assesses proposed action impacts Measures: Technical Efficiency measures Structural Expert judgement Source-apportionment (RESPONSES) Traffic Industry Residential combution (DRIVERS) Activities Projections Emission inventory (PRESSURES) Emission scenario - S/R relationships - CTM simulations (STATE) AQIs Emission reduction costs External costs, Health exposure, Ecosystem exposure Reduction costs Dose-response functions. (IMPACTS)

8 2. IAM identifies effective measures Measures: Technical Efficiency Structural Traffic Industry Residential combution (DRIVERS) Activities Projections Optimization approaches Cost-benefit Cost-effective Multi-objective (RESPONSES) Reduction costs Dose-response functions. (IMPACTS) Emission reduction costs External costs, Health exposure, Ecosystem exposure Emission inventory (PRESSURES) Emission scenario - S/R relationships - CTM simulations (STATE) AQIs

9 RIAT+ methodology Emission inventories and projections Emission reduction measures Technical Energy CTM simulations Input databases Decision Model Source Receptor models Scenario analysis Cost-effectiveness Multi-objective analysis Efficient policies Objective values Post-processing Output

10 RIAT+ approaches Approach 1 RIAT+ assesses the impacts of proposed actions Scenario analysis: Lumped approach: Emission reduction for macrosectors Detailed approach: Technical measures Energy measures Approach2 RIAT+ identifies effective emission reduction measures Optimization approach: Cost-effectiveness Multi-objective Detailed approach: Technical measures Energy measures

11 Approach 1: RIAT+ assesses the impacts of proposed actions Scenario analisys: Domestic heating

12 RIAT+ approaches Approach 1 RIAT+ assesses the impacts of proposed actions Scenario analysis: Lumped approach: Emission reduction for macrosectors Detailed approach: Technical measures Energy measures Approach2 RIAT+ identifies effective emission reduction measures Optimization approach: Cost-effectiveness Multi-objective Detailed approach: Technical measures Energy measures

13 Approach 2: RIAT+ identifies effective emission reduction measures Multi-objective approach min J(x) = min! AQI(x) C(x) # x x " $ x X Cost-effective approach min AQI(x) x C(x) L Control variables Technical measures Energy Efficiency measures

14 Constraints! Technology feasibility Penetration level between minimum and maximum values! Measures complementarity Mass conservation! Technology increasing efficacy Optimal removed emissions higher than CLE

15 Computing the AQI! Nonlinear functions: based on Neural Networks! Input data for training: emissions -> air quality simulations -> concentrations! set of air quality simulations: Design of Experiments

16 AQI determination: design of experiments B = cle + 15% H = mfr - 15% L = average of B,H

17 ! Pollutants PM: # of daily PM10 exceedances, mean PM10 and PM25 O3: AOT40, SOMO35, mean MAX8h NO2: mean NO2! Time aggregation Year Seasonal! Spatial aggregation Average (simple or population weighted) # cells over threshold Sub-domains AQ indexes

18 Cost objective! Emission reduction costs Technical measures Efficiency measures

19 Ex-post analysis! GHG budget (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, F-gases)! External costs (mortality and morbidity) for PM10 YOLL Respiratory problems Cardiovascular deseases

20 Multiobjective problem moll 20

21 Emission reduction 21

22 22

23 Open issues! Costs of Efficiency measures! Dynamic planning (yearly basis)! Win-win policy 23

24 Conclusions! Methodology to support air quality plan! E-reporting! Regional measure effectiveness assessment (DL 250/2012 art.5, art. 20) 24

25 References Carnevale, C., Finzi, G., Pisoni, E., Volta, M., Guariso, G., Gianfreda, R., Maffeis, G., Thunis, P., White, L., Triacchini, G. (2012). An integrated assessment tool to define effective air quality policies at regional scale. Environmental Modelling and Software, 38, pp ; C. Carnevale, G. Finzi, G. Guariso, E. Pisoni, M. Volta (2012). Surrogate models to compute optimal air quality planning policies at a regional scale. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE (ISSN: ) ; C. Carnevale, G. Finzi, E. Pisoni, M. Volta (2011). Minimizing external indirect health costs due to aerosol population exposure: a case study from Northern Italy. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT (ISSN: ) ; 25

26 C. Carnevale - UNIBS G. Finzi - UNIBS G. Guariso - POLIMI A.Pederzoli - UNIBS E. Pisoni UNIBS (at present EC IES-JRC) E. Turrini- UNIBS M. Volta - UNIBS