Regional and territorial modelling for urban planning. A tool to foster cohesion in Europe

Transcription

1 Regional and territorial modelling for urban planning A tool to foster cohesion in Europe Carlo Lavalle and the LUISA Team JRC/IES Sustainability Assessments Unit ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/luisa

2 The Issue European policies call for growth, integration and cohesion Visions and Targets are mostly set at macro (aggregated) scale (EU or National) Ultimate implementation undertaken by regions, cities, The Challenge Can modelling provide insights and advice by Explaining consequences and propose opportunities Determining critical factors and thresholds Providing hints on the best (spatial) scale for interventions

3 Key challenges (growth, sustainability, access to essential services ) can only be addressed with a territorially dis-aggregated approach. Economy Demography Policy Activities Assets Investments Local impacts Trends projections Options and scenarios Prague, LUISA Ref. Scenario

4 LUISA: Urban Analysis at European scale Weighted Urban Proliferation (WUP)

5 LUISA : Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment Modelling Platform Conceived to contribute to Territorial Impact Assessment of EU policies; More than one stand-alone model. It is a platform of inter-linked data, processes, models and indicators; Based upon direct linkages with macro/geographic-economic and bio-physical models Beyond a conventional land cover/use model. New approach towards activitybased modelling: Endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities Endogenous modelling of effects of infrastructure improvements Endogenous spatial economic breakdown of sectoral employment and GVA growth trends 5

6 How does LUISA work? Scenario Setting (socioeconomic) Land ECONOMY requirements DEMOGRAPHY from different AGRICULTURE sectors ENERGY are estimated given exogenous macro-drivers for Demand settings resources, commodities and energy. Demand Module Implementati on of Policy options Resolves the spatial allocation of resources and Current land use activities at fine pixel scale, taking into Dynamic Population Biophysical suitability, neighborhood, policy and regulatory constraints and targets, conversion costs, consideration competition for land and land Projected Population map suitability. Projected Accessibility map Dynamic Spatial Allocation Projected Land Use Change Nr. of people Accessib ility Impact analysis Land-use based indicators: Land-use/cover maps Change hotspots Regional changes Land use intensity/abandonment Thematic indicators: Resources Supply / Demand Urban/Regional Profiles Regulatory Ecosystem Services Sectoral employment & GVA Dynamic Land Functions Territorial and thematic Indicators 6

7 LUISA: Indicators of territorial performances Derived from an integrated framework of specialized models(*) and data representing multiple sectors and policies Economic performances (e.g. GDP, sectoral production, employment, investments in innovation, convergence,..) Access to services (e.g.: to public structures, recreational and cultural sites,..) Infrastructures for housing, transport, energy, Environmental performances (e.g. pollution levels and mitigation measures), natural capital and ecosystem services (*) RHOMOLO,LUISA, TRANSTOOLS, RIAT, GEM-E3, ESTIMAP

8 LUISA - Examples of products/outputs RTD impacts Network efficiency 8

9 LUISA Visualisation Tool Indicators Regional characterisation/profiling

10 LUISA Configuration of the Reference Scenario (1) Compliant with the Energy Reference Scenario 2013 : Full Climate and Energy package (Jan 2014) Used in the IA for Low Carbon Economy and the White Paper on Transport; Reflects policies adopted by March 2012 Agriculture (CAP and spatial aspects) Renewables Directive TEN-T Updated road transport network. Biodiversity and Habitat protection ERDF & Cohesion Funds Timeline: , Coverage: EU28, Resolution: 100x100 mt. Ref.: Baranzelli et al, 2014

11 LUISA Configuration of the Reference Scenario (2) Sector/Theme Model Current implementation Agriculture CAPRI RES_2_04XX_PRIMESCOR (driven by PRIMES) Industry GEM-E3 Update 07/2013 (ECFIN Ageing Report 2012) Cohesion Policy RHOMOLO MFF (Preliminary allocations) Residential areas EUROPOP EUROPOP 2010 Forestry Tourism UNFCC Historical Data UNWTO Transport TEN-T TRANSTOOL Approved network upgrades Climate Change Various ENSEMBLE (A1B, E1) Crop suitability BIOMA AVEMAC Thematic Indicators ESTIMAP, CBM, LISFLOOD/QUAL,.. Ecosystem Services, Forest, Water..

12 Examples of products/outputs 12

13 POTENTIAL ACCESSIBILITY 2010 CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL ACCESSIBLITY Ref.: Barbosa et al,

14 Mobility, network performances, trips Chris Jacobs Crisioni, 2015 IN PROGRESS 14

15 Definition of scenarios of options/measures Baseline scenario Policy option A Policy option B Policy option A+B Impact assessment: Δ (Option A+B / Baseline) = Overall impact of policies Δ (Option A / Baseline) = Contribution of policy A Δ (Option B / Baseline) = Contribution of policy B Examples of measures: A: Invest on infrastructures-> reduced congestion -> reduced emission - > increased accessibility B: Targeted urban/regional planning -> optimized land use intensity -> increased efficiency

16 Percentage of land becoming urban between 2010 and ,0% 0,5% 0,0% BAU Compact Reference -0,5% Modelled traveltime to nearest city centre (minutes in 2030; logarithmic scale) 16

17 Flood damage reduction / water retention measure Urban measures Agricultural measures Meandering measures 17

18 Air quality indicators at FUA Comparison % Population exposed to pollutant concentration over limits Changes related to percentage of population exposed to high levels of pollutants are due to movement of people more than to changes in exposure levels Population map of London Pilar Vizcaino, Marco Trombetti, Jean-Philippe Aurambout, 2015 IN PRESS 18

19 Sub-regional breakdown of macro-economic trends ECFIN projection (MS level) Regionalized ECFIN projection (NUTS3 level) Scenario: Regional and sector trends to continue Employment, GDP, population change 2015->2025

20 Regionalization LUISA EXOG. Demography Demography Economy Economy Economic gradients influence migration flows between regions. Land demand Internal migrations Population Allocation mechanism LU Land use functions t Accessibility t+1 t+1 > Urban patterns influence regional economic growth; > ESS and natural assets can foster regional opportunities; > Different regional growths vs. regional Profiles. Implemented Under development

21 Examples of Applications Integrated Coastal Zones Management (IA) Common Agricultural Policy (IA) Blueprint to Safeguard Europe s Water Resources (IA) Implementation of the ENER-CLIMA Reference Scenario Assessment of Shale Gas extraction in PL and D (IA) Resource Efficiency Roadmap Regional Policy (input to 6 th Cohesion Report) Modelling of ecosystems and ecosystem services (MAES)

22 Thank you! More to follow in Session