How To Understand The Political And Environmental Interests In The Arctic Ocean

Transcription

1 Arctic maritime challenges seen from the north by Olav Orheim

2 Contents of this presentation: Why the increased interest in the Arctic? Politics of the Arctic Ocean, including Norwegian reflections Evolution in use of the maritime Arctic during coming years

3 Four reasons for increased interest in the Arctic: Price of oil and gas and minerals Offshore technological solutions Warming makes the Arctic ocean more accessible Political developments

4 I chaired the commission set up in 2003 by Norwegian foreign minister. We overestimated international political interests we underestimated the speed of climate change. October 2005: N. foreign minister Gahr Støre: The North is the largest foreign policy challenge for Norway. Norwegian public investigitaton Start of new political attention on the northern areas. Parliamentary (Storting) debate June 2005 Subsequently, Russia, USA, Canada have all formulated Arctic strategies.

5 The Arctic Council has five Nordic members + Canada, Russia, USA + Indigenous permanent observers 4 million live in the Arctic (AMAP definition) are indigenous, have subsoil rights in Canada. New developments in Greenland AC is becoming politically important: First binding agreement (on Search and Rescue) in Nuuk, 12 May International legal issues are under considerable discussion. Some are perhaps far from resolution (USA-Canada: Beaufort, NWpassage. Russia-Canada/Greenland: Lomonosov/North Pole, extent of Svalbard treaty). Others are solved or close to solution (Russia-Norway, Russia-USA, Canada-Greenland) EU, China and other Asians nations want part of the AC action.

6 Will the Arctic Council become stronger? Who are the Arctic players, 5, 8, 8++? 2008: The five agree that the Arctic Ocean is their home turf, and that UNCLOS and IMO provide (most of) the needed international legal framework. Arctic Council has initiated many activities, including: Best Practice Ecosystem-based Oceans Management, and Assessments of Marine Shipping, and Arctic Oil and Gas

7 USGS Dec update: 22% of undiscovered petroleum is in the Arctic. Mostly gas. Also large mineral resources. A sophisticated analysis compared to USGS six years earlier.

8 Now to maritime access: Nansen s crossing of the Arctic Ocean with Fram in could not be done today. With ice conditions like in 2007 to 2011, Fram would have come out of the ice after half a year.

9 Up to 15 July 2012 After 2003 there has not been a single day with aboveaverage ice extent, i.e. a very persistent signal. The ice free anomaly is increasing. Now new minimum record!

10 Note: Slightly different scale on this graph Largest changes in the autumn

11 Now only old ice on the North-American side. There are about 2000 commercial ships available that can travel in thin ice.

12 (Three slides from Felix Tschudi) Savings are too large to be ignored It is no longer difficult to obtain permission. Atomflot and the NSR Administration are service minded.

13 Northern Sea Route 2011 Largest vessel ever, dwt Suezmax loaded with mt of gascondensate Largest bulkcarrier, dwt Panamax loaded with iron ore Speed record, 14 knots and 8 days Gascondensate from Russia to China and Jetfuel from Korea to the Continent. Same vessel using the NSR both ways. First Seismic vessel First international Cruise vessel. My comments: 18 transits still very tiny compared to global shipping no immediate revolution!

14 A positive voyage result compared to the Suez Canal and the route via Cape! Distance Kirkenes - Lianyungang via Suez : about nm Estimated expected speed: 13 knots Estimated voyage time: Voyage duration via NSR (about 6500 nm) : Estimated time saved via NSR: Estimated fuel saved (today s prices): 40 days including 1 day at Port Said. 22,5 days average speed knots 17,5 28,2 MT of fuel 493 USD 610/tonn = USD Cost of ice breaker escort and passing the Suez Canal roughly equal USD 5 per MT Additional cost of insurance Enviromental savings, all figures approximate. NOx CO2 SOx 50 tonn 1557 tonn 35 tonn The threat of piracy is avoided! The Cape Route adds another 15 days.

15 Arctic shipping can supplement difficult summer land transport in Siberia

16 Eventually what may revolutionize Arctic shipping is going north of Russian territorial waters. What will be the interpretation of UNCLOS art. 234?: Coastal states have right to enforce nondiscriminatory regulations for prevention of marine pollution from vessels in ice-covered areas within EEZ where particularly severe climatic conditions and ice covering creates obstructions or exceptional hazards. (abbreviated text)

17 Numerous challenges not least political. Also: Sea ice, icing from sea-water spray, icebergs and growlers, seasonal darkness Wise management requires knowledge: weather forecast, environmental impact, safety of operations, surveillance, etc.