FHSMUN TAMPA BAY 2 UNITED NATIONS OFFICE OF THE HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR REFUGEES THE SYRIAN REFUGEE SITUATION. Author: Brian D.

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1 FHSMUN TAMPA BAY 2 UNITED NATIONS OFFICE OF THE HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR REFUGEES Introduction THE SYRIAN REFUGEE SITUATION Author: Brian D. Sutliff In the wake of the initial optimism of the Arab Spring of 2011, with the toppling of entrenched regimes in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen, many domestic and international observers pondered the possibilities of the removal of the Assad government in Syria. Over the past three and a half years, however, the violence in Syria has devastated cities such as Aleppo, Damascus, and Homs, threatened to ignite sectarian violence between the Alawite and Sunni communities, and created enormous humanitarian and security concerns, in particular a refugee crisis that is being described as unprecedented, in neighboring countries, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. The number of Syrians killed thus far is impossible to determine with any precision but generally accepted estimates point to over 190,000 killed 1, with the death tolls on some days approaching 250. The resulting humanitarian crisis has displaced over 4 million people within Syria and created over 3 million refugees 2, most of whom have fled to Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Unfortunately, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG), Syria indeed has become an arena for outside meddling, but the meddling has been far more effective at sustaining the fighting than ending it. 3 As the UN Security Council in particular, and the international community in general, continues to monitor developments in Syria and strives to mediate a peaceful solution to the conflict, delegates to the United Nations Office for the High Commissioner for Refugees must seek to first stabilize the current refugee situation and then work with all relevant and interested parties, including the governments of the region, to create the conditions necessary for the Syrian refugees to feel safe enough to return. 1 Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), Syrian civil war: death toll more than 190,000; UN CBCNews August 22, United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Refugee total hits 3 million as Syrians flee growing insecurity and worsening conditions August 29, Found at: 3 International Crisis Group (ICG), Syria s Mutating Conflict August 1, 2012 p. i.

2 Scale of the Conflict The rapidly escalating death, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and refugee tolls in Syria match some of the most horrific violence in the most recent war in neighboring Iraq, particularly during the period from During the 4-day Eid al-adha holiday truce in late October 2012 (October 26-29, 2012), over 420 people were killed in repeated shelling, suicide bombings, and armed clashes between Syrian security forces and rebel forces. 4 Once the poorly enforced truce ended, Syrian warplanes resumed aerial bombardments in eastern suburbs of Damascus and in Homs while rebel forces assassinated a leading Syrian general. 5 As the conflict has intensified over the past few years, the tragic and vicious reality of this prolonged civil war, with elements of violent ethnic and/or sectarian reprisals and campaigns of assassination, expulsion and intimidation, creates enormous instability and violence throughout the region. The violence in Syria previously threatened to, and occasionally did, spill over into neighboring countries, but in recent months, particularly with the emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) 6, cross-border violence and the resultant refugee flows have escalated. 7 In the past, Turkey responded with retaliatory shelling 8 as well as forcing a Syrian jet to land in the Turkish capital of Ankara because of suspicions that the plane was carrying Russian-made munitions to the Syrian security forces. 9 In September 2014, Israel claimed to have shot down a Syrian fighter jet because it had infiltrated into Israeli airspace, the first such claimed occurrence since the 1980s. 10 Given the collapse of Syrian political institutions and the stark possibility that relinquishing power may lead to enormous economic, legal, military and political consequences for the Assad regime and its Alawite allies, astute observers were not at all surprised that Assad and his security forces, as well as their makeshift civilian militias, known as shabbiha, have chosen to fight rather than seek a negotiated political transition. While the Assad regime and its allies have become increasingly ostracized internationally, particularly in the wake of the chemical weapons attack in the suburbs of the Ghouta region in August , the international community must bear in mind that merely seeking the removal/replacement of the Assad regime without having any clear ideas about the composition and intentions of any new government may cause the current conflict to further metastasize. 4 BBC News, Damascus car bombings as Syria ceasefire ends October 29, Reuters, Syrian Air Force on Offensive After Failed Truce October 30, Other commonly used names and initials for ISIS include: The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the term primarily utilized by the US Government; and the Islamic State (IS). 7 Ben Hubbard, Raids by ISIS Push Flood of Refugees into Turkey New York Times September 22, Tim Arango & Anne Barnard, Turkey Strikes Back After Syrian Shelling Kills 5 Civilians New York Times October 3, Ellen Barry & Rick Gladstone, Turkish Premier Says Russian Munitions Were Found on Syrian Jet New York Times October 11, Jodi Rudoren, Israel Says It Shot Down Syrian Fighter Jet New York Times September 23, Frank Gardner, Syria conflict: chemical attack kills hundreds BBC News August 21, 2013.

3 International Responses The United Nations, the League of Arab States (commonly called the Arab League), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have all held emergency meetings regarding the violence in Syria as well as to consider what diplomatic, economic, legal, political, and security options are currently available. In November 2011, the Arab League formally suspended Syria from membership as a result of Syria s violent repression of political demonstrations; Syria argued that the move was illegal because it was not approved unanimously Lebanon and Yemen opposed the suspension and Iraq abstained. 12 The possibility of armed intervention in the Syrian conflict, all the way from the enforcement of no-fly zones for the Syrian air force to the actual introduction of armed international forces, presumably from NATO countries, including Turkey, remains a considerable risk. Turkey s previous calls for establishing safe zones for refugees in northern Syria 13 would require the introduction of considerable outside forces, an eventuality that is not being publicly embraced by many political leaders. UN System Actions If the messenger truly matters in diplomacy, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has sent two of the leading lights of the UN, former Secretary-General Kofi Annan and former Algerian Foreign Minister and UN UnderSecretary-General Lakhdar Brahimi, to underscore the importance of peacefully resolving the Syrian conflict. Before his departure from Syria on August 2, 2012, Annan proposed a 6-point plan for resolving the crisis that included the deployment of a UN military observer mission in Syria for several months; the observer mission was removed in mid-august 2012 as a result of increasing violence in the country. 14 Brahimi s overtures have thus far not produced significant improvements nor reductions in violence, in large part because both the Assad regime and the rebels appear intent on focusing on securing military victory. Who are these guys anyway? Syria s Splintered and Fractious Opposition While removal of the Assad regime, and probably Ba ath Party loyalists from government bureaucracies and Alawite officers from military leadership positions, may be the preferred outcome for Syria s opposition groups and much of the international community, the identities and motivations of many of these opposition groups are not entirely clear. The International Crisis Group recently noted that most armed groups have yet to develop a firm ideology or leadership structure; membership fluctuates, with fighters shifting from one faction to another based on availability of funds, access to weapons, personal relationships in other words, based on factors having little if anything to do with belief. 15 Amidst the overall fluidity 12 Neil MacFarquhar, Arab League Votes to Suspend Syria Over Crackdown New York Times November 12, Jeremy Bowen, Turkey: Risk Worth Taking for Syria Safe Zones BBC News September 27, BBC News, UN Syria observer mission over, Security Council says August 16, International Crisis Group (ICG), Tentative Jihad: Syria s Fundamentalist Opposition October 12, 2012 p. i.

4 of these Syrian opposition groups, it is clear that any new Syrian political and military leadership may include either hostile elements or groups focused on avenging past injustices. Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking in Zagreb, Croatia on October 31, 2012, asserted that the Syrian National Council (SNC) could not be an effective government as most of its leaders have lived outside of Syria for decades. 16 US and NATO preferences for new leadership in Syria may also run counter to the preferences of Syrian Sunni communities and parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood, and their foreign sponsors, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as well as the Syrian Shi a community and its Iraqi, Iranian, and Hizbollah sponsors. Syrian diaspora and expatriate communities are also likely to continue to seek to influence the ascendancy and composition of any new political and security leadership. With President Obama s announcement in September 2014 that the US-led bombing campaign against ISIS would be expanded into Syria, and with renewed calls from members of Congress to arm the moderate Syrian opposition, the behaviors and ideological compositions of the various anti-government militias and rebel groups have taken on greater significance. 17 Furthermore, with the rapidly shifting battlefield conditions in different parts of Syria, temporary truces and even alliances of convenience create considerable confusion for Syrians as well as outside observers of the conflict. Sanctions Economic sanctions are an often proposed route for international pressure but sanctions are unlikely to lead to any immediate resolution of the Syrian conflict. The Arab League, the European Union (EU), and the United States all imposed tighter economic sanctions against Syria in late 2011 and in the summer of 2012, yet the Assad regime has been able to cling to power while the Syrian economy suffers potentially catastrophic setbacks; in May of 2012, the Syrian Oil Minister claimed that international sanctions had already cost Syria at least $4 billion USD in a country with an annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of approximately $108 billion total for Within the UN, imposing sanctions will be significantly more difficult as both China and Russia have vetoed previous Security Council resolutions designed to impose strict economic sanctions against Syria. 19 Furthermore, sanctions regimes must be effectively and consistently enforced; unfortunately, given many lucrative examples of smuggling and sanctions evasion, including the Oil-for-Food sanctions scandal in which allegations of corruption were raised against the administrator of the program, Benon Sevan, then Secretary-General Kofi Annan and his son Kojo, British MP George Galloway, Russian intelligence sources, and 16 Associated Press, Clinton seeks major shakeup of Syrian opposition in new bid to rally country against Assad October 31, Ben Hubbard, Eric Schmitt, and Mark Mazetti, US Pins Hopes on Syrian Rebels with Loyalties All Over the Map New York Times September 11, Jonathan Masters, Syria s Crisis and the Global Response Council on Foreign Relations October 29, Found at: 19 Rick Gladstone, Friction at the UN as Russia and China Veto Another Resolution on Syria Sanctions New York Times July 19, 2012.

5 multinational oil companies; while subsequent investigations have not sustained many of the charges against specific individuals or corporations, the hint of another sanctions scandal may pose a significant challenge. Military Intervention Military resolution of the conflict in Syria has been broached at various points but, save a Syrian invasion of a neighboring state such as Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, or Turkey, or Syrian deployment of chemical weapons 20, at least several Security Council member states, including China and Russia, are likely to oppose authorizing any large-scale occupation of Syria. The current US-led bombing campaign appears intended to provide aerial support to the Iraqi army as well as the oft-referenced moderate Syrian opposition but the response from the Iraqi armed forces has not prevented further ISIS territorial gains. Expanding this US-led coalition, which currently includes Australia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom (UK), to include Arab and Muslim world allies has thus far yielded direct participation and/or support from Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) but US policymakers clearly desire much greater direct support from Turkey. Many of the Syrian opposition movements that have been designated as the intended beneficiaries of US and allied military strikes are instead claiming that the real beneficiary is Syrian President Bashar al-assad. 21 Furthermore, the effectiveness of this bombing campaign is being disputed as ISIS continues to threaten vulnerable populations and claim additional territory. 22 Without Security Council authorization, however, these actions may come up against domestic legal and political challenges as well as embroil these countries in dangerous and prolonged military actions. Deploying a peacekeeping mission to Syria may be another option that will be discussed at the Security Council but it would likely take at least 6 months to assemble a sizeable peacekeeping force; this would also depend upon member states being willing to send their respective military and police forces into the Syrian conflict. Delegates to the UNHCR need to remain actively apprised of Security Council deliberations on Syria but must also proceed with the most appropriate forms of assistance and support to Syrian refugees. Very Few Good Options Left: Syrian Refugees and Their Receptions in Neighboring Countries With the horrific violence plaguing Syria, and no effective end to the violence in sight, approximately 3 million Syrians have fled their country in the last 3 years, often facing terrible dangers throughout their harrowing journeys and at times even after they have reached their intended destinations. In August 2014, a ship carrying some 500 Syrian and African refugees 20 BBC News, Obama warns Syria chemical weapons use may spark US action August 21, Anne Barnard, Opposition in Syria is Skeptical of US Airstrikes on ISIS September 29, Karam Shoumali & Anne Barnard, ISIS Advances in Syrian Border Town of Kobani Despite Airstrikes New York Times October 8, 2014.

6 sank off the coast of Italy, with some 200 refugees drowning. 23 With the sustained, and recently very rapid, influxes of Syrian refugees into Turkey, the hospitality of Turkey towards Syrians is being eroded in many instances. 24 In Jordan, a country that has for decades housed hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees, and for at least a decade hundreds of thousands more Iraqi refugees, the arrival of several hundred thousand, potentially even a million or more, additional Syrian refugees is deeply unsettling. 25 Demands on public infrastructure and social services, including education 26 and health, as well as increased demands on local economies frequently engender growing impatience and, at times, outright hostility towards these Syrian refugees. With no sustainable political settlement to the civil war in Syria on the immediate horizon, tens of thousands of Syrians may come to approximate semi-permanent or long-term residents in these neighboring countries, potentially leading to additional strains on local economies and societies. The oft-prevalent ethnic and sectarian causes of the violence forcing Syrian refugees to flee may also be observed in the chilly, if not outright hostile, receptions that these same refugees confront in their new host countries. With the already tense situations involving the Kurdish populations of Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey being exacerbated by ISIS and other militant groups launching attacks in Kurdish areas of Iraq and Syria, the economic, legal, political, and social strains impacting these refugees will only be made much worse. 27 In early October 2014, Jordan announced that it was increasing security measures at the borders to prevent the infiltration of violent individuals and militant organizations; the UNHCR announced that these new measures amounted to an effective prohibition against any new Syrian refugees entering Jordan. 28 Existing Exigencies: Caring for Syrian Refugees While the ultimate goal of most refugee agencies and policy-makers is to encourage safe, timely and voluntary repatriation of refugees, it is highly unlikely that the current 3+ million Syrian refugees will be able to return to their home country, much less their homes, within the next few months. Providing the necessary facilities and services for refugees creates significant financial costs, many of which may be resented by host country governments and populations. The projected 2015 UNHCR budget for Syria is just over $245 million USD, with the overall budget for the broader Middle East reaching an estimated $1.34 billion USD, both of which represent reductions from the 2014 totals of approximately $258 million USD and $1.374 billion USD, respectively. 29 With the recent accelerations of Syrian refugee influxes into Turkey and 23 The Economist, A harrowing journey September 8, Ceylan Yingsu, Ancient Haven for Refugees Sees Signs of Strain New York Times July 31, Norimitsu Onishi, As Syrian Refugees Develop Roots, Jordan Grows Wary New York Times October 5, Rana F. Sweis, Jordan s Schools Buckle Under the Weight of Syrian Refugees New York Times October 6, Karam Shoumali & Anne Barnard, Refugees Flood Turkish Border as Islamic State Steps Up Attacks on Syrian Kurds New York Times September 28, Rana F. Sweiss, No Syrians Are Allowed Into Jordan, Agencies Say New York Times October 8, UNHCR, 2014 UNHCR country operations profile Middle East and North Africa (MENA) 2014.

7 surrounding countries, and significant likelihood of continued refugee outflows from Syria throughout at least the first few months of 2015, increasing voluntary contributions to the UNHCR and related agencies may be absolutely critical to resolving this crisis. UNHCR s primary initiative targeted directly towards Syrian refugees is the Syrian Humanitarian Assistance Program (SHARP). SHARP has been further subdivided into a series of Regional Response Plans with the current iteration being Regional Response Plan 6 (RRP6). Current projections from RRP6 indicate the UNHCR is planning for approximately 4.1 million Syrian refugees by the end of 2014 with estimated financial costs reaching an estimated $4.3 billion USD for this initiative. 30 While the High Commissioner, António Guterres, has repeatedly thanked governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and related civil society partners for their generous voluntary contributions, it is abundantly clear that as the conflict drags on, we must continue to respond together, but finding new and additional means of financing is becoming an increasing challenge. 31 Increasing voluntary contributions to SHARP and the relevant Regional Response Plans (RRPs) must also mean that governments and interested civil society partners not only pledge greater support but also deliver this support in a timely manner. Protecting the Most Vulnerable Refugees All refugees are vulnerable, virtually by definition, but even within refugee populations, certain refugees confront additional challenges, particularly women, children 32, and people with disabilities. In both Jordan and Libya, UNHCR officials and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have documented instances of Syrian refugee families selling their daughters into marriages as well as Syrian women who have been forced to trade sex for food and protection. 33 Assisting these most vulnerable refugee populations is an absolutely critical component of ensuring that the UN System and the international community meet their respective obligations to the refugees and are fundamental steps towards preparing the way for eventual safe and voluntary repatriation. Found at: 30 UNHCR, 2014 Syria Regional Response Plan: Strategic Overview 2014 pp The entire report may be found at: tarian%20assistance%20program 31 António Guterres, 2014 Syria Regional Response Plan 2014 p Nick Cumming-Bruce, UN Warns of Lasting Harm to Syrian Refugee Children New York Times November 29, Beth McLeod, Syrian refugees sold for marriage in Jordan BBC News May 10, 2013.

8 Conclusion The enormity of the Syrian refugee crisis ensures that the international community will have to confront the consequences of Syria s civil war for months, possibly even years after the eventual conclusion of hostilities. Delegates to the UNHCR are tasked with protecting current and prospective Syrian internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees from further deprivation and harm while laying the foundation for the safe, timely, and voluntary return of all Syrian IDPs and refugees to their original communities whenever possible and to other safe areas when return to their respective original communities is not possible. Guiding Questions Has your country accepted any Syrian refugees as a result of the ongoing civil war? If so, what services is your government providing as a host country? Has your country contributed financially to the UNHCR or related civil society partners to assist the Syrian refugees? What steps need to be taken by the international community, including the UNHCR and related UN agencies, as well as neighboring countries and regional organizations, including the League or Arab States, to ensure that all refugees are properly cared for and that conditions for safe, timely and voluntary repatriation of Syrian refugees when the civil war ends and/or when conditions permit safe return? Resolution: United Nations Security Council resolution 2139 (S/RES/2139) The Middle East February 22, 2014.

9 Please note the statistical figures in the map of Syria: Numbers and Locations of Refugees and IDPs changes frequently.