Country Profile. Yemen

Transcription

1 Country Profile Yemen November 2011

2 The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. Copyright 2011 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment Country Profiles Series Editor J. J. Messner Country Profile Written by Annie Janus and Raphaël Jaeger The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CCPPR11YE (Version 11E) Circulation: PUBLIC The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C T: F: The Fund for Peace

3 Profile Yemen Pressures Capacity Numbers Combined Failed States Index Score Failed States Index Rank Average Indicator Score Year-on-Year Core Average Score Core Rank Capacity Minus Pressures th th -5.5 Maximum 120 of 177 countries Maximum 10 Steady Maximum 10 of 177 countries Pressures Assessment: Alert Capacity Assessment: Weak High Pressure Low Capacity Outlook Yemen s performance has worsened for the 5th consecutive year. The situation has especially worsened recently, as the country has experienced significant turmoil since January 2011, when anti-government protestors began. Despite a violent response from the government, the protests have not abated. The situation has further deteriorated with divisions among tribal leaders in their support of President Saleh, resulting in clashes between the opposition and Saleh s supporters. On 21 October 2011, the UN Security Council Resolution 2014 urged President Saleh to step down after human rights violations and the excessive use of force by the authorities against protesters supported by sections of the army. President Saleh has promised to step down, but has yet to do so. The instability is giving greater opportunity for human traffickers and smugglers while 400,000 refugees and IDPs are reported in Yemen. The country is also facing external intervention pressures, as the United States has recently intensified its covert war against the Yemen-based al Qaeda branch. Even when this period of turmoil calms, Yemen will still require long-term socio-political reforms and reconciliation efforts. Comparative Statistics Population GDP Per Capita (PPP) Life Expectancy Median Age 23,900,000 US$ 2, years 16.4 years China 1,339,000,000 Qatar US $ 91,379 Japan 82.6 years Japan 44.6 years Seychelles 86,500 D.R. Congo US $ 319 Swaziland 39.6 years Uganda 17.6 years 3 The Fund for Peace

4 Indicators Social, Economic & Political Pressures Social & Economic Indicators Demographic Pressures Refugees and IDPs Group Grievance Human Flight Uneven Development Poverty and Decline th 19th 21st 48th 33rd 29th Poor Poor Poor Weak Poor Poor Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Steady Steady Worsened Improved Improved Steady 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend Worsened Worsened Worsened Improved Improved Steady Recent Improvements and Declines An impoverished and deeply divided country, Yemen faces many social pressures. Its dramatic growth rates, declining water supplies, and uneven development have led to substantial civil tensions and insurgent movements. Yemen is the poorest country in the Middle East, where one out of three children is malnourished, among the highest malnutrition in the world. Petroleum currently accounts for 25% of Yemen s GDP. But with oil reserves expected to be depleted by 2017, the country is under significant pressure to diversify its economy. The Demographic Pressures score increased as Yemen experiences the highest population growth rates in the Middle East, with its current population set to double in the next decade. The Refugees and IDPs score also worsened due to the growth of IDPs resulting from ongoing conflicts. A 2010 UN estimate places the number of IDPs at 250,000; this number will most likely increase due to recent clashes. Conflict in Abyan governate has displaced 100,000 people while people are fleeing increasing clashes in Sana a northwards to Amran. In addition, there are still 300,000 IDPs who fled the conflict between the government troops and Al-Houti forces in The Group Grievances score rose as the South Yemen Movement, which was developed in response to the widespread belief that the south s resources are exploited and that the government representation disproportionately benefits the north, continues to gain momentum. The Uneven Development score improved, largely reflecting strong oil prices and economic improvements in However, a severe fuel shortage has prevented farmers from transporting their goods to markets as well as from irrigating their crops. Many Yemenis are no longer able to afford food because of inflation and reduced income (prices of main food commodities increased by 46% since January 2011). 4 The Fund for Peace

5 Yemen Political & Military Indicators Legitimacy of the State Public Services Human Rights Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention th 87th 43rd 9th 11th 32nd Poor Poor Weak Poor Poor Poor Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Steady Steady Improved Worsened Steady Worsened 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend Steady Worsened Worsened Steady Steady Worsened Recent Improvements and Declines The Legitimacy of the State score remained steady, reflecting the ceasefire reached between the government and northern rebels in February The Public Services score remained steady, reflecting continuing deficiencies in Yemen s infrastructure, such as water supply. The Security Apparatus score increased as the southern separatists continue to gain momentum and due to another resurgence of violence from the anti-government Shia rebels in the north. The Rise of Factionalized Elites score remained steady, reflecting the on-going effects of the state and tribe relationship and the patronage politics that serve to benefit only the most prominent tribes, the Hashid and the Baqil. The External Intervention score also increased, as the U.S. tripled its foreign assistance for counterterrorism from its 2008 amount in recognition of the al Qaeda threat in Yemen. Yemen s poor performance in this category offers a contextual understanding of the political environment leading up to the protests that erupted in early The security apparatus worsened in 2011, suggesting a significant increase in tensions. Currently, 5 out of 6 provinces are out of government control. The North is largely controlled by Al-Houti rebels, the South is partly held by secessionist militants while the capital split between rival forces with u n p r ec e d ent e d s c a l e o f a r m ed confrontations. 5 The Fund for Peace

6 Pressures and Capacities Trends and Comparisons Multi-Year Pressures Trend Failed States Index (Pressures) Total Score The large chart represents a magnified portion of the full scale, shown below: Alert Multi-Indicator Comparison Pressures Pressures better than average Pressures worse than average Finland: Best Performer Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer Capacities Capacity lower than average Capacity higher than average Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer Austria: Best Performer A visual representation of the proportion of the total pressure and capacity scores that are contributed by each individual indicator. Each color within the bar chart corresponds to the colors of the 12 Failed States Index (pressure) indicators and the 7 Core 5+2 (capacity) indicators. Guidelines are also provided to demonstrate the average score for all 177 countries, as well as the extremes of best and worst performers. 6 The Fund for Peace

7 Yemen State Institutions and Civil Society: Core 5+2 Indicators Leadership Military Police Judiciary Civil Service Civil Society Media Poor Weak Moderate Poor Weak Moderate Poor Pressures v. Capacity Plot Comparison Low Capacity High Capacity Switzerland Norway Finland Ireland Japan France Argentina Estonia Mongolia This chart compares pressures with capacities by comparing the Failed States Index score (representing pressures) with an average indicator score for the Core 5+2 (representing capacity). Note that the capacity score is an average, as not all countries have been assessed for all Core 5+2 indicators as yet, due to insufficient data. (Note that the capacity measures are still under development.) Somalia Low Pressure High Pressure 120 Cyprus Libya Paraguay Israel Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Georgia Myanmar Iraq Haiti Afghanistan Yemen C.A.R. Zimbabwe Sudan Chad D.R.C. Pressures v. Capacities Flat Comparison A representation of capacities vs. pressures based on the difference between average capacity indicator score and average pressure indicator score. Higher Pressure, Lower Capacity Yemen Lower Pressure, Higher Capacity 7 The Fund for Peace

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