Country and Sovereign Risk Management. Strategic Considerations for Financial Institutions in Asia IIF EXECUTIVE PROGRAM ON. December 8-10, 2014 Tokyo

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1 IIF EXECUTIVE PROGRAM ON Country and Sovereign Risk Management Strategic Considerations for Financial Institutions in Asia IN COOPERATION WITH December 8-10, 2014 Tokyo

2 Introduction We are delighted to invite you to participate in the Executive Program on Country and Sovereign Risk Management, offered by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in cooperation with Mizuho. This three-day program starts with an overview presentation of the broad picture of the dimensions of country/sovereign risk, including the impact of evolving macroeconomic environment and growing regulatory requirements. Sessions will then go deeper in distinguishing country and sovereign risk analyses to better appreciate the different nuances of identifying and assessing risks before any strategic decisionmaking: What is the risk before going into a country? If already in a country, how to assess the exposures to mitigate, circumvent or hedge the risks? Top country risk practitioners from leading global financial institutions will share insights on the practical experience and the current methodologies used by leading banks and non-banks. Industry experts will share insights on the geopolitical landscape in Asia, impact of central bank rate tightening, as well as country by country assessment of key markets in the region. Please join us in Tokyo to take advantage of this unique opportunity. Timothy D. Adams President & CEO HIGHLIGHTS: Understand clearly what country risk is and how it is different from sovereign risk to better identify and assess risks before strategic decision-making Review the current methodologies used by leading banks and non-banks then reassess how to approach the current issues using practical applications Speakers include top country risk practitioners from leading global financial institutions and industry thought leaders Interactive format throughout all sessions: panel discussions, case studies, and roundtables WHO SHOULD ATTEND: Executives with Oversight or Exposure to Country/Sovereign Risk Senior Risk Officers; Senior Economists Senior Investment Decision- Makers; Market/Operational Strategists PROGRAM FACTS: Date: December 8-10, 2014 Location: Tokyo Venue: Head office of Mizuho (Otemachi Tower, Otemachi, Chiyoda ku) Program Fee: Member Firm $2,900; Non-Member Firm $3,500 Deadline: Registration is open up to one week prior to program start date or until capacity is reached. Capacity limitations may force some programs to close registration early. 2 Country and Sovereign Risk Management

3 ASSESSING COUNTRY RISK MONDAY, DECEMBER 8 8:30 am 9:00 am REGISTRATION 9:00 am 9:30 am SESSION 1: WELCOMING SESSION Opening remarks Introduction to the program Koji Fujiwara, Group Chief Strategy Officer, Mizuho IIF 9:30 am 11:00 am SESSION 2: ASSESSING COUNTRY RISK: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES Macroeconomic risks and vulnerabilities Risks associated with inter-linkages between the sovereign, banking, corporate and housing sectors Asset price bubbles and credit gaps Sonja Gibbs, 11:00 am 11:30 am COFFEE BREAK 11:30 am 12:45 pm SESSION 3: EVOLVING GLOBAL REGULATORY FRAMEWORK UPDATES ON THE LATEST REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK ON KEY DEVELOPMENTS AHEAD Insights on key global and local regulatory developments Impact of new regulations on business models, strategies, market structures, etc. Takashi Nagaoka, Assistant Commissioner for International Affairs, Japan Financial Services Agency 12:45 pm 1:45 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 3:30 pm SESSION 4: EVOLVING GLOBAL MACRO ENVIRONMENT AND OUTLOOK IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL GROWTH AND ADJUSTMENT NEEDS Vulnerabilities and prospects for net capital flows to Asia markets Impact of quantitative easing by major central banks and associated risks issues and risk of an eventual normalization Hajime Takata, Chief Economist, Mizuho Research Institute 3:30 pm 4:00 pm COFFEE BREAK 4:00 pm 5:30 pm SESSION 5: ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION: SHARING OF PARTICIPANTS PERSPECTIVES ON THEIR OWN APPROACHES TO COUNTRY RISK IN THEIR RESPECTIVE INSTITUTIONS Sonja Gibbs, 5:30 pm 7:30 pm RECEPTION & DINNER * all participants expected to attend Institute of International Finance 3

4 ASSESSING COUNTRY RISK TUESDAY, DECEMBER 9 9:00 am 10:00 am SESSION 6: FINANCIAL MARKET PERCEPTIONS OF COUNTRY RISK ASSESSING MARKET SIGNALS Sonja Gibbs, 10:00 am 10:30 am COFFEE BREAK 10:30 am 12:00 pm SESSION 7: BANK PERSPECTIVE: COUNTRY RISK AT PLAY What to look at when determining the riskiness of a country: sovereign risk vs. country risk vs. intervention risk How to manage Country Risk: measurement and control Topical/regional developments affecting Country Risk Mark Patrick, Executive Director, JP Morgan 12:00 pm 1:00 pm LUNCH 1:00 pm 2:30 pm SESSION 8: NON-BANK PERSPECTIVE: SOVEREIGN SCREENED INVESTING The importance of Sovereign Risk management Overview of the BlackRock Sovereign Risk Index Features of the BlackRock Sovereign Risk Index Application of the BlackRock Sovereign Risk Index : Global Sovereign Screened strategy Garth Flannery, Director & Portfolio Manager, BlackRock 2:30 pm 4:00 pm SESSION 9: RATING AGENCIES APPROACHES TO COUNTRY/ SOVEREIGN RISK ANALYSIS Fundamentals of credit ratings: -Ratings process; ratings definitions; sovereign ratings performance Sovereign ratings in Asia Pacific Rating above the sovereign Country risk assessments Kim Eng Tan, Senior Director, S&P 4:00 pm 4:30 pm COFFEE BREAK 4:30 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 10: GROUP DISCUSSION Sonja Gibbs, 4 Country and Sovereign Risk Management

5 ASSESSING COUNTRY RISK WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10 9:00 am 10:30 am SESSION 11: [WORKSHOP] THE IMF DEBT SUSTAINABILITY FRAMEWORK FOR MARKET ACCESS COUNTRIES PRESENTATION OF THE FRAMEWORK AND SNAPSHOTS OF THE MAC DSA TEMPLATE Presentation of new DSA template Application of case studies of countries Charlotte Lundgren, Economist, IMF 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 12:30 pm SESSION 12: [ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION] COUNTRY BY COUNTRY ASSESSMENT Japan: structural reforms and growth outlook China: financial liberalization and risk of a hard landing India: new economic strategy and its likely impact Moderator: Katsuyuki Hasegawa, Chief Market Economist, Mizuho Research Institute Panelists: Prachetas Raykar, Chief Risk Officer, Japan, HSBC Naoko Nemoto, Managing Director, S&P 12:30 pm 1:30 pm LUNCH 1:30 pm 2:30 pm SESSION 13: STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS FOR COUNTRY/ SOVEREIGN RISK MANAGEMENT THE WAY FORWARD Interactive discussion with the participants on what are their takeaways from the various sessions Better preparing strategically going forward Sonja Gibbs, 2:30 pm 3:00 pm WRAP UP Program evaluations and presentation of certificates Institute of International Finance 5

6 Speaker Profiles Koji Fujiwara, Group Chief Strategy Officer, Managing Executive Officer, Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Koji assumed in April 2014 the current position, as well as Managing Director of Mizuho Bank and serves as its Head of Strategic Planning Group. Prior, he served as Executive Officer of Investor Relations Division of Mizuho Financial Group; Deputy General Manager of Consumer and Private Banking Planning Division of Mizuho Bank; and Senior Manager of Investor Relations at Mizuho Financial Group. He has been a Director of Mizuho Financial Group since June 2014 and serves as a Director of Mizuho Information & Research Institute. He obtained a Bachelor's degree in Commerce from Waseda University, and an MBA (Finance) from NYU and an MBA (Management) from MIT. Hajime Takata, Managing Executive Officer and Chief Economist, Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. Hajime in 2011 assumed the position of Managing Executive Officer and Chief Economist at Mizuho Research Institute. Prior, he was the Chief Strategist at Mizuho Securities, and before that, Chief Strategist within the Fixed Income Group at IBJ Securities. Earlier, he joined the Industrial Bank of Japan, working both in the credit and the capital market departments. Hajima has published many books, including the latest, Footsteps of a Global Depression (2012). He received his Masters Degree in Development Economics from Oxford University, and a Bachelor Degree in Economics from Tokyo University. Sonja Gibbs, Director, Capital Markets and Emerging Markets Policy Department, Institute of International Finance Sonja is one of the authors of the IIF s monthly Capital Markets Monitor, which focuses on risk assessment and financial market analysis across a range of asset classes in both developed and emerging economies; she also co-authors the IIF s Weekly Insight as well as the IIF s flagship report, Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies. She and her team are also responsible for coordinating the IIF s G20 outreach programs. Sonja has spent over 20 years in banking and financial markets, most recently with Nomura International in London, where she was Chief Equity Strategist. Sonja is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), and received her M.B.A. and Bachelor s degrees from the University of California at Berkeley. Takashi Nagaoka, Assistant Commissioner for International Affairs, Financial Services Agency of Japan Takashi is, since assuming current position, in charge of overseeing international regulatory reforms in the area of bank supervision led by BCBS and FSB. His responsibilities also include international audit regulation, under which capacity he is chairing IFIAR s Enforcement Working Group since its establishment in July Prior, he served as Director for Enforcement of Corporate Disclosure, after serving as Director for International Financial Markets and for International Accounting. His previous experiences at the JFSA range from inspection and supervision of financial institutions to enforcement of securities laws at the Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission. He started his career at the Ministry of Finance of Japan in 1991 and also worked as an economist at the IMF. He earned an MBA (beta gamma sigma) at Columbia University, and a Bachelor s degree (LLB) at Tokyo University. 6 Country and Sovereign Risk Management

7 Speaker Profiles Mark Patrick, Executive Director - Head, Country Risk, APAC, J.P. Morgan Chase Mark is responsible for sovereign ratings and advisory coverage as well as country limits management and controls. In this capacity, he reports to the Global Head of Country Risk Assessment and Management, and serves on the management team of the Chief Risk Officer for the Asia Pacific region. Prior, Mark was a lead negotiator on the derivatives workout for the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy estate, From 2000, Mark was the global sovereign risk manager for Lehman Brothers. Prior to joining the private sector, Mark served as a US diplomat from 1991 to 2000, with tours in Peru, Singapore and Washington. Mark holds a Master of Arts degree in History from the University of Michigan and graduated from Pomona College. Garth Flannery, Director and Portfolio Manager, BlackRock Garth is a member of BlackRock's Model Based Fixed Income Asset Allocation Group. His service with the firm dates back to 2003, including his years with Barclays Global Investors (BGI), which merged with BlackRock in He has been a part of the Asset Allocation team for this duration. Prior, he was a Corporate Finance Analyst at NM Rothschild & Sons, he worked at PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Garth earned an MSc degree with Distinction in Management Science and Operational Research from Warwick Business School, University of Warwick. Garth is a CFA charterholder; he is an SFA registered representative and holds the Investment Management Certificate. Kim Eng Tan, Senior Director & Analytical Manager, Sovereign Ratings A-P, Standard & Poor s Kim Eng, based in Singapore, heads the team that evaluates the credit standing of governments and sovereign-supported issuers in the Asia-Pacific region. He is also responsible for the rating analysis of key Asia-Pacific economies, including Australia, China, Japan, and Korea. Kim Eng is a member of the global sovereign criteria committee that is responsible for methodology enhancements and evaluating methodology-related issues relevant to sovereign ratings. Before joining S&P, he worked in the Monetary Authority of Singapore as a money market manager. Kim Eng holds a Bachelor of Accountancy (Honors) from the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, and a Master s degree in Economics from the London School of Economics, UK. Institute of International Finance 7

8 Speaker Profiles Charlotte Lundgren, Economist, International Monetary Fund Charlotte s current position is in the Debt Policy Division of the IMF s Strategy, Policy and Review Department (SPR); this Division is responsible for the design and implementation of IMF policies related to debt sustainability and sovereign debt restructuring in the IMF membership. Charlotte has also worked in the IMF s African Department on several countries with lending arrangements with the IMF. Prior, Charlotte held positions as Senior Economist at the Swedish Ministry of Finance and the Riksbank (Swedish central bank), covering international macro developments and economic policies in the EU, and also worked for two years as economist for the World Bank in Uganda. She holds a M.Sc. in International Economics from Lund University. Katsuyuki Hasegawa, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager of Research Division, Mizuho Research Institute Katsuyuki is Chief Market Economist and the Head of Research Department-Financial Market of Mizuho Research Institute. He joined the Industrial Bank of Japan (IBJ) in 1988 and has been with IBJ and Mizuho Financial Group (established by the merger of IBJ, Fuji Bank, and Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank in 2000) for more than 25 years. He spent most of his career as an economist (18 years) at the Research Department of IBJ and Mizuho Research Institute. Katsuyuki graduated from Sophia University in 1988 and from London Business School with MBA in He also holds CFA, CMA and CIIA designations. Prachetas Raykar, Asia Pacific Risk, Chief Risk Officer, Japan, HSBC Prachetas is Chief Risk Officer for HSBC Japan. In this role, he is responsible for managing all aspects of the Risk function across HSBC Group businesses in Japan. Prachetas has worked with the HSBC group for over 18 years and prior to his current role, he was Head of Wholesale Credit and Market Risk for HSBC India. Prachetas has an Engineering degree from IIT Mumbai and a post graduate diploma in management from IIM Lucknow. Naoko Nemoto, Managing Director, Standard & Poor s Ratings Services Naoko heads all research activities for the Asia-Pacific Financial Institutions team and is an expert on the Financial Services sector in Japan. As a primary analyst covering several key financial institutions, she regularly comments on developments in the financial services industry via written reports, speeches, and seminars. Prior, Naoko worked for the Bank of Japan as an economist and analyst. She is a member of the Financial System Council of Japan s Financial Services Agency. Naoko has authored three books on finance covering theory and practice of bank management, post-crisis trends in the banking industry, and Korean financial reform. Naoko has a Bachelor s degree in Law from Waseda University and a MBA degree from the University of Chicago. 8 Country and Sovereign Risk Management

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